Pastor Views on Presidential Candidates. Survey of Protestant Pastors

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Griselda Cook
6 years ago
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1 Pastor Views on Presidential Candidates Survey of Protestant Pastors

2 2 Methodology The phone survey of Protestant pastors was conducted January 8-22, 2016 The calling list was a random sample stratified by church size drawn from a list of all Protestant churches Each interview was conducted with the senior pastor, minister or priest of the church called Responses were weighted by region to more accurately reflect the population The completed sample is 1,000 surveys The sample provides 95% confidence that the sampling error does not exceed +3. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups

3 Survey Responses

4 Among Protestant pastors, 47% are undecided about who to vote for in the 2016 presidential election Ted Cruz (Republican) Ben Carson (Republican) Hillary Clinton (Democrat) Marco Rubio (Republican) Bernie Sanders (Democrat) Donald Trump (Republican) Mike Huckabee (Republican) Jeb Bush (Republican) Chris Christie (Republican) John Kasich (Republican) Rand Paul (Republican) Carly Fiorina (Republican) Martin O'Malley (Democrat) Rick Santorum (Republican) Undecided Do not plan to vote 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 2% < < < 2% 17% 47% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 4 Q19: If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? Options were listed alphabetically by last name. Interviewers were instructed to only read list if needed.

5 Among Protestant pastors planning to vote in the 2016 presidential election, 17% say they would vote for Ted Cruz Among Protestant Pastors who plan to vote 5 Ted Cruz (Republican) Ben Carson (Republican) Hillary Clinton (Democrat) Marco Rubio (Republican) Bernie Sanders (Democrat) Donald Trump (Republican) Mike Huckabee (Republican) Jeb Bush (Republican) Chris Christie (Republican) John Kasich (Republican) Rand Paul (Republican) Carly Fiorina (Republican) Martin O'Malley (Democrat) Rick Santorum (Republican) Undecided 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 2% < < < 17% 48% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q19: If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? n=971 Options were listed alphabetically by last name. Interviewers were instructed to only read list if needed.

6 54% of Protestant pastors identify as Republican, 23% Independent, and 14% Democrat 6 Democrat 14% Republican 54% Independent 23% Libertarian Constitution Green Natural law Reform Other Don't know < 0% 0% 5% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q: In which party are you registered to vote or do you consider yourself to be a member? n= 896

7 Among Protestant pastors planning to vote in the 2016 presidential election, a combined 4 named a Republican candidate 7 Named a Republican candidate 4 Named a Democratic candidate 1 Undecided 48% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q19: If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? n=971

8 8 Among Republicans planning to vote, 29% say they would vote for Ted Cruz Among Protestant Pastors who indicated they are registered to vote or consider themselves a Republican Ted Cruz (Republican) Ben Carson (Republican) Marco Rubio (Republican) Donald Trump (Republican) Jeb Bush (Republican) Mike Huckabee (Republican) Chris Christie (Republican) Hillary Clinton (Democrat) John Kasich (Republican) Rand Paul (Republican) Bernie Sanders (Democrat) Carly Fiorina (Republican) Martin O'Malley (Democrat) Rick Santorum (Republican) Undecided 10% 8% 5% 2% 2% < < < 29% 39% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q19: If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? n=473

9 Among Democrats planning to vote, 38% say they would vote for Hillary Clinton Among Protestant Pastors who indicated they are registered to vote or consider themselves a Democrat 9 Hillary Clinton (Democrat) Bernie Sanders (Democrat) Ben Carson (Republican) Donald Trump (Republican) Ted Cruz (Republican) Mike Huckabee (Republican) Chris Christie (Republican) John Kasich (Republican) Martin O'Malley (Democrat) Marco Rubio (Republican) Jeb Bush (Republican) Rand Paul (Republican) Carly Fiorina (Republican) Rick Santorum (Republican) Undecided 2% 2% < < < < < 23% 3 38% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q19: If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? n=124

10 Among Independents planning to vote, 8% each say they would vote for Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz Among Protestant Pastors who indicated they are registered to vote or consider themselves an Independent 10 Marco Rubio (Republican) Ted Cruz (Republican) Ben Carson (Republican) Bernie Sanders (Democrat) Hillary Clinton (Democrat) Donald Trump (Republican) Mike Huckabee (Republican) Jeb Bush (Republican) John Kasich (Republican) Chris Christie (Republican) Rand Paul (Republican) Carly Fiorina (Republican) Martin O'Malley (Democrat) Rick Santorum (Republican) Undecided 8% 8% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% < < < < < 57% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q19: If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? n=193

11 11 Significant Differences Pastor Ethnicity Age Education Level Self-identified Evangelical/Mainline Political Affiliation Church Region Denomination Average Attendance

12 12 Significant Statistical Differences Comparisons were made to determine if there are any significant statistical differences among pastor s ethnicity, age, education level, and those self-identifying as Evangelical or Mainline. Pastor s Ethnicity Age Education Level Self- Identify Political Affiliation White No College Degree Evangelical Democrat Other Ethnicities Bachelor s Mainline Republican Master s (including M.Div) 65+ Doctorate (including Ph.D, D.min) Independent

13 13 Significant Statistical Differences Comparisons were also made to determine if there are any significant statistical differences among the church s region, denomination, and average attendance. Region Denomination Attendance Northeast Baptist 0-49 Midwest Lutheran South Methodist West Pentecostal 250+ Presbyterian/ Reformed Note: Region is defined by US Census regions

14 If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? Pastors of Other Ethnicities (18%) are more likely to select Hillary Clinton than White pastors (5%) White pastors (19%) are more likely to select Ted Cruz than pastors of Other Ethnicities (5%) White pastors (5%) are more likely to select Bernie Sanders than pastors of Other Ethnicities () Those age (2%) are more likely to select Jeb Bush than those (<) Those age (8%) are more likely to select Hillary Clinton than those (4%) Those age (2) are more likely to select Ted Cruz than those 65+ (12%) Those age (2%) are more likely to select Rand Paul than those (<) 14

15 If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? Those age (9%) are more likely to select Bernie Sanders than those (4%) and 65+ (2%) Those age (4%) and 65+ (8%) are more likely to select Donald Trump than those () Those age 65+ (54%) are more likely to select Undecided than those (44%) Those with a Bachelor s degree (13%) are more likely to select Ben Carson than those with a Master s (7%) or a Doctoral degree (2%) Those with a Master s (7%) or a Doctoral degree (12%) are more likely to select Hillary Clinton than those with a Bachelor s (2%) Those with a Bachelor s degree (22%) are more likely to select Ted Cruz than those with a Doctoral degree (13%) Those with a Master s (8%) are more likely to select Bernie Sanders than those with no college degree (<) or a Bachelor s () 15

16 If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? Those with no college degree (8%) are more likely to select Donald Trump than those with a Master s (3%) or a Bachelor s (3%) Those with a Doctoral degree (7%) are more likely to select Donald Trump than those with a Master s (3%) Republicans (10%) are more likely to select Ben Carson than Democrats (2%) Democrats (38%) are more likely to select Hillary Clinton than Republicans () and Independents (5%) Republicans (29%) are more likely to select Ted Cruz than Democrats () and Independents (8%) Republicans (8%) and Independents (8%) are more likely to select Marco Rubio than Democrats (<) Democrats (23%) are more likely to select Bernie Sanders than Republicans () and Independents (6%) Independents (57%) are more likely to select Undecided than Democrats (3) and Republicans (39%) 16

17 If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? Those in the Midwest (1) are more likely to select Ben Carson than those in the South (5%) Those in the South are the most likely to select Ted Cruz (23%) Those in the South are the least likely to select Bernie Sanders () Those in the West are the most likely to select Undecided (58%) Presbyterian/Reformed (4%) are more likely to select Jeb Bush than Baptists (<) and Lutherans (<) Presbyterian/Reformed (19%) are more likely to select Hillary Clinton than Baptist (3%), Lutherans (9%), and Pentecostals (3%) Methodists (1) are more likely to select Hillary Clinton than Baptist (3%) and Pentecostals (3%) Baptists are the most likely to select Ted Cruz (28%) Pentecostals (15%) are more likely to select Ted Cruz than Presbyterian/Reformed (5%) Baptists (8%) are more likely to select Marco Rubio than Methodists (2%) 17

18 If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? Lutherans (1), Methodists (9%), and Presbyterian/Reformed (10%) are more likely to select Bernie Sanders than Baptists () and Pentecostals (<) Pentecostals (9%) are more likely to select Donald Trump than Lutherans () and Presbyterian/Reformed (2%) Lutherans (60%) and Pentecostals (6) are more likely to select Undecided than Baptists (43%) Mainlines (10%) are more likely to select Hillary Clinton than Evangelicals (3%) Evangelicals (8%) are more likely to select Marco Rubio than Mainlines (4%) Mainlines (8%) are more likely to select Bernie Sanders than Evangelicals (3%) 18

19 If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? Those with attendance of 250+ (25%) are more likely to select Ted Cruz than those with attendance of 0-49 (13%) and (17%) Those with attendance of 0-49 (4%) are more likely to select Mike Huckabee than those with attendance of () Those with attendance of (9%) and 250+ (7%) are more likely to select Marco Rubio than those with attendance of 0-49 (2%) Those with attendance of 0-49 (8%) are more likely to select Donald Trump than those with attendance of (3%) 19

20 Pastor Views on Presidential Candidates Survey of Protestant Pastors

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED The Star Tribune Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research from Jan. 18-20, 2016. Results for the questions about the presidential race were released on Sunday, Jan. 24, 2016. HOW