THE NEW WORLD OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
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1 SUB Hamburg A5572J2 IR THE NEW WORLD OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Ninth Edition Michael G. Roskin LYCOMING COLLEGE Nicholas O. Berry FOREIGN POLICY FORUM Longman Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montreal Toronto Delhi Mexico City Sao Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo
2 Brief Contents Detailed Contents Preface xx vii PART I APPROACHES TO IR 1 Chapter 1 Power and Systems in Transformation 2 Chapter 2 IR Theories 20 PART II THE COLD WAR COME AND GONE 39 Chapter 3 America's Changing National Interests 40 Chapter 4 Vietnam and the Warping of National Interest 56 Chapter 5 Russia and Geopolitics 72 Chapter 6 Can the United States Lead the World? 94 PART III THE GLOBAL SOUTH 111 Chapter 7 From Colonialism to Decolonization 112 Chapter 8 Eternal Warfare in the Holy Land 126 Chapter 9 Oil and Turmoil in the Persian Gulf 142 Chapter 10 Trouble and Hope in Latin America 160 Chapter 11 Development in Rich and Poor Countries 176
3 vi Brief Contents PART IV THE ETERNAL THREATS 193 Chapter 12 The Causes of Interstate Conflict 194 Chapter 13 The Pursuit of National Security 208 Chapter 14 The Politics of Nuclear Bombs 222 Chapter 15 The Challenge of Asymmetrical Conflict 238 PART V ECONOMIC BLOCS 253 Chapter 16 Europe Unifies 254 Chapter 17 Asia Awakes 270 Chapter 18 The United States and Globalization 286 PART VI THE POLITICS OF A NEW WORLD 301 Chapter 19 Diplomacy Is Still Alive 302 Chapter 20 The Uses of International Law 318 Chapter 21 The Reach of the United Nations 334 Chapter 22 Finite F.E.W. (Food/Energy/Water) 350
4 Detailed Contents Preface xx PART I APPROACHES TO IR 1 CHAPTER 1 Power and Systems in Transformation 2 CONCEPTS: Power 4 The European Balance-of-Power System 5 CONCEPTS: Systems 6 TURNING POINT: Bismarck: System Changer 7 The Unstable Interwar System 8 The Bipolar Cold War System 9 What Kind of New System? 10 Are States Here to Stay? 16 CONCEPTS: The State 16 Is Sovereignty Slipping? 17 CONCEPTS: Sovereignty 17 REFLECTIONS: Sovereignty and You 18 CHAPTER 2 IR Theories 20 The Oldest Theory: Realism 22 0 CLASSIC THOUGHT: E. H. Carr and Realism 22 a CLASSIC THOUGHT: Hans Morgenthau on National Interest 24 The Liberal Peace Seekers 26 CONCEPTS: Liberal Internationalism 27 vii
5 viii Detailed Contents The Newest: Constructivism 29 Marxist Theories of IR 32 CONCEPTS: Gramscian Marxism 34 IR Theories: An Evaluation 35 PART II THE COLD WAR COME AND GONE 39 CHAPTER 3 America's Changing National Interests 40 Independence 41 CONCEPTS: National Interests 42 Manifest Destiny 43 D CLASSIC THOUGHT: Washington's Farewell Address 43 Imperialism 45 CLASSIC THOUGHT: Mahan's Sea Power Theory 45 World War I 47 Isolationism 47 World War II 48 n DIPLOMACY: The Atlantic Charter 48 The Cold War 49 CONCEPTS: Cold War 49 TURNING POINT: Spring CONCEPTS: Mead's Four Schools of U.S. Foreign Policy 52 The Next Challenges 53 REFLECTIONS: Kennan on History 53 CHAPTER 4 Vietnam and the Warping of National Interest 56 The Colonized Colonialists 58 CONCEPTS: Political Generations 58 The First Indochina War 59 a GEOGRAPHY: Vietnam and China 59 The United States and the Geneva Accords 60 B TURNING POINT: HO Chi Minh 60
6 Detailed Contents ix Kennedy's Commitment 61 o DIPLOMACY: The Geneva Accords 61 CONCEPTS: Guerrilla Warfare 62 LBJ: Victim or Villain? 64 TURNING POINT: The Tonkin Gulf Resolution 64 CONCEPTS: What Is a Civil War? 65 Extrication Without Humiliation 66 TURNING POINT: Tet 66 REFLECTIONS: Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam 67 Morality and Feasibility 68 a DIPLOMACY: The 1973 Paris Accords 68 DIPLOMACY: Kissinger's "Decent Interval" 69 CLASSIC THOUGHT: War and Peace 70 APTER 5 Russia and Geopolitics 72 War and Bolshevism 74 a GEOGRAPHY: Geopolitics 74 Spreading the Revolution 76 Q GEOGRAPHY: World War I: The Slavic Connection 76 Stalin's Policy Mistakes 77 TURNING POINT: The North Russian Intervention 77 The Great Patriotic War 78 CONCEPTS: Ideology and Foreign Policy 78 a DIPLOMACY: The Spanish Civil War 79 Yalta 80 The Cold War 80 o DIPLOMACY: The Yalta Agreement 80 The Decline of the Soviet Union 81 CLASSIC THOUGHT: Kissinger on Absolute Security 81 Restive East Europe 82 CONCEPTS: Hegemony 82 Khrushchev and the Cuban Missiles 84 Brezhnev and Detente 85 Afghanistan: A Soviet Vietnam 85 DIPLOMACY: Detente 85
7 Detailed Contents Why the Soviet Collapse? 86 Gorbachev and Collapse 87 CONCEPTS: Elites 87 Foreign Policy: Generated Internally or Externally? 88 GEOGRAPHY: The Soviet Successor States 89 Restoring Russian Power 90 DIPLOMACY: Geroge F. Kennan on Russia and the West 90 CHAPTER 6 Can the United States Lead the World? 94 Alternation in U.S. Foreign Policy 95 CONCEPTS: Interventionism 96 Are Americans Basically Isolationists? 97 CLASSIC THOUGHT: Spykman on Intervention 97 The Continuity Principle 98 CONCEPTS: A Cyclical Theory of U.S. Foreign Policy 98 REFLECTIONS: Ideals or Self-Interest? 99 a DIPLOMACY: Presidents and Their "Doctrines" 100 A Contrary Congress 101 CONCEPTS: Congress and Foreign Policy 102 Is the Structure Defective? 103 Do Bureaucracies Make Foreign Policy? 104 DIPLOMACY: National Security Council 104 CONCEPTS: Bureaucratic Politics 105 The Unilateralist Temptation 106 TURNING POINT: Obama and the Afghanistan Decision 107 To Lead or Not to Lead? 108 PART III THE GLOBAL SOUTH 111 CHAPTER 7 From Colonialism to Decolonization 112 Legacies of Colonialism 114 GEOGRAPHY: Looking for a Name 115 GEOGRAPHY: Colonialism 116 The Roots of Africa's Problems 117
8 Detailed Contents xi The Strange Story of South Africa 117 REFLECTIONS: Gold Coast into Ghana 118 India Splits in Two 119 Nigeria: The Oil Curse 121 GEOGRAPHY: The Agony of Algeria 121 GEOGRAPHY: Congo: Still the Heart of Darkness 122 n GEOGRAPHY: Bad Way in Zimbabwe 123 The Assertive Emerging Countries 124 CHAPTER 8 Eternal Warfare in the Holy Land 126 The Making of Jewish Nationalism 127 CONCEPTS: Nationalism 128 The Making of Arab Nationalism 129 DIPLOMACY: Promises, Promises 129 World War I and the Mandate 130 a GEOGRAPHY: Britain Invents Jordan 130 The 1948 War 132 The 1956 War 132 The Six Day War 133 The 1973 War 134 DIPLOMACY: Logistics and Peace 135 The Rise of Palestinian Nationalism 136 The 1982 War 136 Is There Hope? 137 Q DIPLOMACY: Obama: Return to Even-Handedness? 137 n DIPLOMACY: Can Extremists Turn Pragmatic? 139 Lessons of the Arab-Israeli Conflict 140 CHAPTER 9 Oil and Turmoil in the Persian Gulf 142 Irascible Iran 143 D GEOGRAPHY: The Strait of Hormuz 146 The First Gulf War 147 CONCEPTS: Huntington's "Civilizational" Theory 147 GEOGRAPHY: The Shatt al Arab 148
9 xii Detailed Contents The Second Gulf War 149 n DIPLOMACY: What Did the United States Know, and When Did It Know It? 149 GEOGRAPHY: The Bab al Mandab 150 The Third Gulf War 151 u DIPLOMACY: A Green Light for Aggression 151 n DIPLOMACY: Status Quo Ante Bellum 152 An Arab Explosion? 153 The Afghan War 154 GEOGRAPHY: The Misused, Angry Kurds 155 War with Iran? 156 Lessons of Four Gulf Wars 157 a DIPLOMACY: "The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend" 157 CHAPTER 10 Trouble and Hope in Latin America 160 ECONOMICS: Statism 162 Spain Colonizes the New World 163 Central America and the Caribbean 163 Economic Dependency 164 CONCEPTS: Intervention 165 a DIPLOMACY: From Monroe Doctrine to Roosevelt Corollary 166 The Pattern of U.S. Intervention 167 TURNING POINT: Guatemala: The Worst Case 167 REFLECTIONS: The Taking of Swan Island 168 Cuba Leaves the U.S. Sphere 169 TURNING POINT: The Bay of Pigs, a DIPLOMACY: The Cuba Problem 170 CONCEPTS: "Torn" Countries 171 Mexico: Drugs and Democracy 171 CONCEPTS: Sphere of Influence 171 CONCEPTS: Free and Fair Elections 172 What Can We Do? 173 REFLECTIONS: We Build a House in Honduras 173 CLASSIC THOUGHT: Poor Mexico! 174
10 Detailed Contents xiii 91 Development in Rich and Poor Countries 176 CLASSIC THOUGHT: Protestant Ethic 179 Why Did the West Rise? 180 CONCEPTS: Per-Capita GDP 180 CONCEPTS: Modernization Theory 181 The Population Explosion 182 CONCEPTS: Neocolonialism 182 REFLECTIONS: The Psychology of Backwardness 183 The Great Migration 184 ECONOMICS: The Rule of ECONOMICS: Uneven Population Growth 186 Socialist Versus Market Paths 187 ECONOMICS: Is My Job Safe? 187 ECONOMICS: Does Foreign Aid Work? 188 D CLASSIC THOUGHT: Socialism When You're Young 188 ECONOMICS: The Burmese Way to Catastrophe 189 ECONOMICS: The Black Market as Model 190 PART IV THE ETERNAL THREATS 193 CHAPTER 12 The Causes of Interstate Conflict 194 Micro Theories of War 195 State-Level Theories of War 196 CONCEPTS: Waltz's Three Levels of Analysis 197 Macro Theories of War 198 CONCEPTS: Islamic Wars? 198 a CLASSIC THOUGHT: The Crux of Clausewitz 199 Power Asymmetries 200 Misperception 201 CONCEPTS: Misperception 201 CLASSIC THOUGHT: Thucydides on Fear 202
11 xiv Detailed Contents The Power Dilemma 203 CONCEPTS: The Previous-War Theory 203 CONCEPTS: DO Rising Powers Cause Wars? 204 The Danger of Analogies 205 a DIPLOMACY: "NO More Munichs" 205 CONCEPTS: The Pacifist Fallacy 206 CHAPTER 13 The Pursuit of National Security 208 Technology and Security 210 CONCEPTS: Security 210 Defense 211 TURNING POINT: The Fall of Constantinople 211 CONCEPTS: Illusory Weapons 212 Deterrence 213 a TURNING POINT: The Maginot Line 214 CONCEPTS: Deterrence 215 Detente Diplomacy 216 CONCEPTS: DO WMD Deter or Provoke? 216 Disarmament 218 a DIPLOMACY: Appeasing Hitler 218 A Combination 219 CHAPTER 14 The Politics of Nuclear Bombs 222 Weapon of War 223 Nuclear Deterrence 224 REFLECTIONS: Hiroshima 225 Alliance Building 226 CONCEPTS: Nuclear and Thermonuclear Weapons 226 International Prestige 227 CONCEPTS: Nuclear Strategies 227 Deterrence Transformed 228 Nuclear Proliferation 228 CONCEPTS: Access 228 CONCEPTS: Prestige 229
12 Detailed Contents xv Arms Control 230 CONCEPTS: Arms Control 230 CONCEPTS: An Islamic Bomb 231 The Nuclear Proliferators 232 a DIPLOMACY: The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 232 What Would Happen if Nukes Were Used? 233 CLASSIC THOUGHT: Clausewitz on Escalation 234 Nuclear Doom? 235 CONCEPTS: Invasion Insurance 235 CONCEPTS: The Rationality Problem 236 CHAPTER 15 The Challenge of Asymmetrical Conflict 238 CONCEPTS: Asymmetrical Conflict 240 The Background of an Asymmetrical Conflict 241 Modernization and Asymmetrical Conflict 241 CONCEPTS: What Is Terrorism? 242 CONCEPTS: Terrorists or Freedom Fighters? 243 CONCEPTS: Blowback 244 Which Way for U.S. Policy? 246 CONCEPTS: IS Islam the Cause? 246 CONCEPTS: Salafiyya 247 CONCEPTS: Terrorism Plus WMD 248 CONCEPTS: Homegrown Terrorists 249 Lessons of Asymmetrical Conflict 250 CONCEPTS: Cyberwarfare PART V ECONOMIC BLOCS 253 CHAPTER 16 Europe Unifies 254 Europe's Two Tracks 256 GEOGRAPHY: Labeling Europe 256 The Lesson of Ex-Yugoslavia 257
13 xvi Detailed Contents The Crumbling of NATO 258 CONCEPTS: Alliances 258 Europe Gropes for Unity 260 CLASSIC THOUGHT: NOW Make Europeans 261 GEOGRAPHY: Growth of the Common Market 262 Europe on Its Own? 263 GEOGRAPHY: Four Stages of Integration 263 ECONOMICS: Trouble in Euroland 264 The Challenge of Trade Blocs 265 CLASSIC THOUGHT: Comparative Advantage 266 ECONOMICS: The Retired Continent 267 CHAPTER 17 Asia Awakes 270 ECONOMICS: China's New Model 274 A History of Exaggerations 275 GEOGRAPHY: China's Stormy Seas 276 Which Way for China? 277 a GEOGRAPHY: China, India, and the Indian Ocean 277 u DIPLOMACY: War over Taiwan? 278 Japan Encounters the West 279 The Road to Pearl Harbor and Hiroshima 280 TURNING POINT: The First Pearl Harbor 280 TURNING POINT: The U.S.-Japan War 281 From Rubble to Riches 282 CONCEPTS: The Unforeseen Consequences of North Korea 282 ECONOMICS: Yuan Get Flexible? 283 CHAPTER i 3 The United States and Globalization 286 The Great Depression and Great Recession 287 A Strong Dollar? 288 ECONOMICS: Bretton Woods Agreement 288 What to Use for World Trade? 289 ECONOMICS: International Monetary Fund 289 Globalization and Its Enemies 290
14 Detailed Contents xvii ECONOMICS: Who Is Rich? 292 ECONOMICS: The 2008 Financial Meltdown 293 ECONOMICS: From GATT to WTO 294 The Coming of NAFTA 295 ECONOMICS: Protectionism 296 Trade Wars? 297 ECONOMICS: Currency Wars?. 298 PART VI THE POLITICS OF A NEW WORLD 301 CHAPTER 19 Diplomacy Is Still Alive 302 CONCEPTS: Diplomacy and Foreign Policy 304 The Rise and Decline of Diplomacy 305 CONCEPTS: Diplomacy 305 The Uses of an Anachronism 306 n CLASSIC THOUGHT: "Surtout, Messieurs, Point de Zele" 306 Diplomats 307 CLASSIC THOUGHT: Balance-of-Power Diplomacy 307 u DIPLOMACY: The Use of Signals 308 Inside an Embassy 310 REFLECTIONS: HOW to Join the Foreign Service 310 c DIPLOMACY: Purge of the "Old China Hands" 311 Diplomacy and War 312 a DIPLOMACY: Third-Party Diplomacy 313 CLASSIC THOUGHT: War by Other Means 313 n CLASSIC THOUGHT: Music Without Instruments DIPLOMACY: Morgenthau's Nine Rules 315 CHAPTER 20 The Uses of International Law 318 Consistency and Reciprocity 320 CLASSIC THOUGHT: Frederick the Great and IL 320 Origins of International Law 321 TURNING POINT: Legalistic Europe 321 CONCEPTS: HOW to Make a Treaty 322 Commands 323
15 xviii Detailed Contents CONCEPTS: Successor States 323 Sanctions 324 o DIPLOMACY: Law of the Sea 324 CONCEPTS: International Sanctions 325 Self-Help 326 Recognition 326 Territory 327 REFLECTIONS: Eichmann and Piracy 327 War 328 TURNING POINT: Hole in the Ozone 328 IL and Human Rights 329 The Future of IL 331 CHAPTER 21 The Reach of the United Nations 334 Theory of World Government 336 The Short, Sad League of Nations 336 CLASSIC THOUGHT: Le Reve de Reves 336 CONCEPTS: Collective Security 338 The Rise of the UN 339 The UN: Early Idealism 340 TURNING POINT: The Four Policemen 340 Disillusion with the UN 341 DIPLOMACY: Ralph Bunche: UN Hero 341 TURNING POINT: Great and Not-So-Great Secretaries General 342 The Uses of the UN 343 TURNING POINT: The United States and the UN 343 REFLECTIONS: Paying Attention to the Deep Seabed 344 Functionalism 344 CONCEPTS: Functionalism 344 Giving Peace a Chance 346 CONCEPTS: The Democratic Peace 346 Humankind's Last, Best Hope? 347 REFLECTIONS: Nongovernmental Organizations 347
16 Detailed Contents xix CHAPTER 22 Finite F.E.W. (Food/Energy/Water) 350 Finite F.E.W. 351 ECONOMICS: The Father of the Green Revolution 352 Has Oil Peaked? 353 ECONOMICS: Oil and Us 353 ECONOMICS: Was Malthus Wrong or Just Premature? 354 ECONOMICS: The 2010 Gulf Oil Spill 355 Technological Fixes? 356 ECONOMICS: Addicted to Oil 356 a DIPLOMACY: The Great U.S.-Saudi Bargain 357 Water Crises 358 ECONOMICS: What Is Cap and Trade? 358 CONCEPTS: The Global Warming Dispute 360 F.E.W. and Human Security 361 CONCEPTS: Cyclical or Secular Change? 362 o GEOGRAPHY: Pipeline Politics 363
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