Conflict in the 21 st Century

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1 The Nature of Conflict Conflict in the 21 st Century Chapter 22 Page 349 Conflict on the global stage usually have one of three outcomes: 1. An acceptable solution is found, suitable to all. 2. Parties learn to live peacefully in an adversarial state. 3. Conflicts worsen and become armed conflicts. Conflict: Arctic Sovereignty Northwest Passage The shortest route between Western Europe and Eastern Asia. Northwest Passage (1979) With more open waters in the Arctic and oil (as much as 25% of the world s undiscovered oil), the world has become quite interested in the ownership of the Northwest Passage. Northwest Passage (2003) Conflicting Claims In 2007: Russian government allegedly planted its flag on the ocean floor at the North Pole. Denmark and Canada also laid claim to the seabed between Greenland, Ellesmere Island, and the North Pole. 1

2 Planted Flag Harper Gets Tough 2007 Prime Minister Harper announced that Canada would build a deep water port and military training base on the northern tip of Baffin Island. Canada would also build arctic vessels capable of conflict. More Exploration Denmark and the USA have also explored the geography of the region. USA claims that the Northwest Passages (there can be more than one, depending on the time of year) are international waters. Canada disagrees. Solving the Conflict The United Nations Law of the Sea Convention requires countries to stake their claims to the region. The four countries in question are likely to accept the UN s decisions regarding international treaties and or negotiations. Or we ll play hockey for it. Role of Hard Power & Soft Power Conflicts What s the Difference? Hard Power Armed conflict Violent terrorism The role of hard power is all to present and understood. Soft Power Much less human and financial cost 2

3 Soft Power Terms Hard Power Terms Co-Option Potential opponents become closely tied to one another before conflict begins. Forming alliances (like the European Union) Public Diplomacy Creating a positive image of a country in the minds of citizens of other countries. The planting of a flag. Government Diplomacy International negotiations This will likely end the Arctic Dispute Aid Payments & Bribes Wealthier countries provide financial incentives to gain support of poorer countries. Sanctions Taken by countries or organizations to force other countries to change policies. Freezing a country s finances Freezing a leader s finances No-fly zones Embargoes Force Ultimate expression of H.P. Asymmetric Warfare In modern times, conflicts usually pit a militarily strong combatant against a weaker one. Weaker side uses whatever weapons it has on hand (IEDs, for example) and counts on public support for the stronger side to diminish Iraq and Afghanistan I. Natural Resource Conflict Causes of Conflict For Simplicity, We ll Identify FIVE Combination of global industrial development and population growth increases demand for FINITE resources. OIL is the leading resource Operation Iraqi Liberation (OIL) Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) Arctic dispute (OIL) South China Sea (OIL) Suggestion that conflicts over WATER will take worldwide precedence persist. II. Territorial Conflicts Two or more groups wish to control the same territory. Israel-Palestine Basque separatist movement in Spain 3

4 III. Cultural Conflict In North/South America and Oceania, is between indigenous (native) peoples and the majority population from other parts of the world. Think of Canada and its many conflicts with Aboriginal groups over land ownership. IV. Religious Conflict V. Global Geopolitical Conflict In many countries, religion forms the basis for SECULAR (non-religious) law. Differing religions often lead to conflicts. Northern Ireland Iraq (Sunni & Shiite Muslims) Israeli Jews & Palestinian Muslims Often localized versions of global rivalries: Proxy wars during the Cold War era. Africa Latin America Asia Vietnam (US directly involved) Korean War (US directly involved) Afghan War (USSR involved) Afghan-Soviet War: Elements of All Causes Afghan-Soviet War Natural Resource Conflict Mineral and energy resources Territorial Conflict USSR wanted land access to the Indian Ocean and wanted to make Afghanistan its puppet state. Cultural Conflict Afghanis opposed modernity brought by the Soviets. Religious Conflict Soviet army was viewed as a threat to Islam. Afghanistan has very strong traditional beliefs and powerful religious groups. Geopolitical Conflict Soviet imperialism would have expanded the empire towards the Middle East. US intervention amounted to arming the Afghanis (Mujahedeen). 4

5 The Costs of Conflict Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired represents, in the final analysis, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, who are cold and not clothed. - Dwight Eisenhower Costs of Conflict Human cost is the most obvious and tangible. Thousands also wounded People wounded or killed even after the conflict ends World War One artillery still explodes in farmers fields Land mines still in the ground Social & Economic Costs Money is spent on military concerns instead of social development for the world s people. Obvious in Africa. There are many armed conflicts within a continent that needs. Guns or Butter Armaments Vary vastly in cost and in function F-35 Joint Strike Force fighter plane ($48-$63 Billion EACH) Will be used by Core Countries, including Canada AK-47 assault rifle; made in the USSR originally, but now made almost everywhere One of the most popular weapons in conflict ($30-$125 each) Differing Outlooks After the Cold War Collapse A Clash of Civilizations Or a Clash of Globalizations? Francis Fukuyama Future was a victory for globalization and for Western policies Called it the end of history Samuel S Huntington Spoke of the potential for conflict between Western and Islamic civilizations. Does globalization reduce conflict? Only if the values encompassed in globalization are at least marginally acceptable by those who are being globalized. Should globalization be spread through the use of hard power in extreme cases? Occupation of Iraq 5

6 Battle of Globalizations According to Huntington Role globalization plays in the Western-Islamic conflict: Western globalization Islamic globalization The capitalist system seeks to turn the entire world into a fiefdom of the major corporations under the label globalization. And Iraq and Afghanistan and their tragedies; and the reeling of many of you under the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes, and real estate mortgages; global warming and its woes; and the abject poverty and tragic hunger in Africa: all of this is but one side of the grim face of this global system. Islamic globalized world would spread from the Atlantic coast of North Africa to Indonesia Within this region, Islamic views dominate (not Western, which are decadent/immoral ) Would lead to the creation of a modern CALIPHATE CALIPHATE A trans-national (across borders) state based on Islamic belief and traditions that would be powerful enough to oppose the cultural, economic, military, and political force of the Western world. Is it happening now? 6

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