European Constituency Opinion Poll: May 2014 For Publication on 17 th May /Paul Moran

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1 European Constituency Opinion Poll: For Publication on 17 th /Paul Moran

2 2. Midlands North West Constituency

Introduction A European Constituency Poll was conducted on behalf of

Interviews were conducted facetoface, inhome, with those aged 18+.

3 Introduction A European Constituency Poll was conducted on behalf of The Irish Independent to be published on Saturday 17 th. Interviews were conducted facetoface, inhome, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. Interviewing was conducted at 46 sampling points in the Midlands North West Constituency. 483 Interviews were carried out between 13 th 14 th. Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

4 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 483 adults representative of the approximate 1.2 million adults aged 18 and over interviewed on a facetoface basis in the home at 46 sampling points throughout the Midlands North West Constituency. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/ 4.5. POLL Interviewing on the poll was carried out between 13 th 14 th. The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Irish Independent. Millward Brown & The Irish Independent. 4.

5 5. Summary

6 Candidate success. It's all down to simple geography With less than a week to go before polling day, there are some interesting shifts in our most recent Millward Brown Opinion poll. Conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, as the campaign moved up through the gears, it offers solace for some and consternation for others. Compared to our previous poll, conducted at the very outset of the election, we have seen momentum building behind some big name candidates, whilst others are still struggling to gain traction. Looking first at Midlands North West. There are areas of Donegal further east than areas of Kildare. So does this make this sprawling constituency in any way homogenous? Anything but. The equivalent of adopting a colonial plumline approach to dividing Ireland s constituencies (outside the capital) has created serious headaches for European candidates, especially for those competing in Midlands North West. However, there are still some constants. Matt Carthy (SF) continues to poll very strongly, and looks oddson to collect Sinn Fein s first Euro seat outside of Dublin. Behind Carty there is a cluster of five candidates vying for the final three seats on offer. Ming Flanagan (Ind) has edged further ahead of Mairead McGuinness (FG), with Marian Harkin (Ind), Pat the Cope and Thomas Byrne (both FF) all within touching distance of each other. On the face of it seems that there is at least one Independent seat, one FF and one FG. When we look at party support by first preference, SF (one candidate), FG and FF (both with two candidates) all have a 19pc share of the first preference vote (the quota being 20per cent). Independents however, have nearly a quota and a half (34pc). 6.

7 Candidate success. It's all down to simple geography As always, transfers will be critical. Looking at second preferences, Marion Harkin is hoovering up 15pc of them, followed closely by Ming and Pat the Cope (both on 13pc) and then Mairead McGuinness (12pc). McGuinness however has slipped back in terms of gaining second preferences since our last poll, which will be a worry. That s where it gets interesting. Independents are by far the most transfer friendly 40pc of all second preferences go to them. On the basis of these results, Ming is certainly in with a fighting chance of going to Europe. A lot will depend on the choreography of eliminations. Looking at intraparty transfers, Pat the Cope and Mairead McGuinness will pick up roughly half of their running mates transfers (Jim Higgins and Thomas Byrne). However, will it be enough? There is a strong case to make that Harkin could drift towards the top of the pecking order. In this scenario, there is the potential for a battle royale for the last seat between the two old guard parties. Turning to the South, Brian Crowley is, in essence, home and hosed. However, the inability of Fianna Fail to organize any semblance of vote management continues to raise eyebrows. Kieran Hartley remains stubbornly on 2pc. Contrast this with Fine Gael. With three candidates in the race, their vote management is much more assured (both FF and FG muster 34pc of first preferences. However, Fine Gael s share is more evenly spread between Sean Kelly, Deirdre Clune and Simon Harris). 7.

8 Candidate success. It's all down to simple geography Sean Kelly in particular will be pleased to see a rise in his support. At this stage it would seem he is most likely to pick up the banker Fine Gael seat, thus returning him to Europe. He also performs most strongly in terms of picking up second preference votes (even within the Fine Gael stable, he is more transfer friendly, attracting more transfers from Clune and Harris than they give to each other. Interestingly, supporters of Kelly are less likely to transfer back to Clune or Harris). Laidh Ni Riada, at 16pc, maintains a strong first preference vote. The key for her will be to ensure as strong a first preference as possible. Whilst Sinn Fein are not as transfer toxic as previously, she can take nothing for granted. She doesn t do as well on transfers. That said, on these results she looks like she may have done enough. Phil Prendergast, similar to her party s fortunes, remains in the doldrums. Her recent questioning of Eamon Gilmore s leadership has had little effect. Based on these results, the most likely outcome will be a definite seat for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, a probable seat for Sinn Fein along with a second seat for Fine Gael to whom though is too close to call. The localized nature of most candidates in these huge constituencies means that turnout in their respective areas will be key. The power of the Personality will be somewhat diluted, given the broad amount of ground they have to cover. Localised turnout on the day will be crucial. There remains the potential for bigticket candidates to falter next Friday arguably victims of simple geography. 8.

9 9. The Results

10 Midlands North West Constituency Quota is 20 Base: All Aged 18+ (483) FIRST PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS INCL. DON T KNOWS (SF) Matt Carthy (13) (Ind) Luke "Ming" Flanagan (9) (Ind) Marian Harkin (9) (FG) Mairead Mc Guinness (8) (FF) Pat "The Cope" Gallagher (7) (FF) Thomas Byrne (12) (FG) Jim Higgins (8) (Lab) Lorraine Higgins (3) (Ind) Ronan Mullen (2) (GP) Mark Dearey (2) (Ind) Mark Fitzsimons (2) (Direct Democracy Ireland) Ben Gilroy (1) (Ind) TJ Fay () (Fis Nua) Cordelia Ni Fhearraigh () Don' know (24) FIRST PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS EXCL. DON T KNOWS (SF) Matt Carthy (17) (Ind) Luke "Ming" Flanagan (12) (FG) Mairead Mc Guinness (11) (Ind) Marian Harkin (12) (FF) Pat "The Cope" Gallagher (9) (FF) Thomas Byrne (16) (FG) Jim Higgins (11) (Lab) Lorraine Higgins (4) (Ind) Ronan Mullen (3) (GP) Mark Dearey (2) (Ind) Mark Fitzsimons (3) (Direct Democracy Ireland) Ben Gilroy (1) (Ind) TJ Fay () (Fis Nua) Cordelia Ni Fhearraigh () ( ) Start of Campaign April

11 First Preference Party Support Midlands North West Constituency Base: All Aged 18+ (483) INCLUDING DON T KNOWS EXCLUDING DON T KNOWS Fine Gael (16) Don t know (24) Fine Gael (22) Fianna Fáil (19) 15 Sinn Féin (13) 15 Incl. DK Labour (3) The Green Party (2) Independents/ others (23) Fianna Fáil (25) 19 Sinn Féin (17) 19 Excl. DK 3 5 Labour (4) 35 Independents/ others (30) The Green Party (2) 11. ( ) Start of Campaign April

12 Midlands North West Constituency Base: All Who Would Give A First Preference Vote SECOND PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS INCL. DON T KNOWS (Ind) Marian Harkin (13) (FF) Pat "The Cope" Gallagher (8) (FG) Mairead Mc Guinness (14) (Ind) Luke "Ming" Flanagan (8) (FF) Thomas Byrne (9) (FG) Jim Higgins (8) (SF) Matt Carthy (5) (Ind) Ronan Mullen (4) (Ind) Mark Fitzsimons (4) (Lab) Lorraine Higgins (3) (GP) Mark Dearey (3) (Direct Democracy Ireland) Ben Gilroy (0) (Ind) TJ Fay () (Fis Nua) Cordelia Ni Fhearraigh () Don' know (19) * 26 SECOND PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS EXCL. DON T KNOWS (Ind) Marian Harkin (16) (FF) Pat "The Cope" Gallagher (10) (Ind) Luke "Ming" Flanagan (10) (FG) Mairead Mc Guinness (18) (FF) Thomas Byrne (11) (FG) Jim Higgins (10) (SF) Matt Carthy (6) (Ind) Ronan Mullen (5) (Lab) Lorraine Higgins (4) (Ind) Mark Fitzsimons (5) (GP) Mark Dearey (3) (Direct Democracy Ireland) Ben Gilroy (0) (Ind) TJ Fay () (Fis Nua) Cordelia Ni Fhearraigh () ( ) Start of Campaign April

13 Second Preference Party Support Midlands North West Constituency Base: All Who Would Give A First Preference Vote INCLUDING DON T KNOWS EXCLUDING DON T KNOWS Don t know (19) Fine Gael (23) Fianna Fáil (17) Incl. DK 30 Sinn Féin (5) The Green Labour Party (3) (3) Independents/ others Fine Gael (28) Fianna Fáil (22) Excl. DK 8 Sinn Féin (6) Labour (4) Independents/ others (37) The Green Party (3) 13. ( ) Start of Campaign April

14 First Preference vote X Demographic Base: All Who Would Give A First Preference Vote GENDER AGE SOCIAL CLASS AREA Male Female < ABC1 C2DE F Urban Rural Fianna Fáil (25) Fine Gael (22) Sinn Féin (17) Labour (4) The Green Party (2) Independents/others (30) ( ) Start of Campaign April

15 Where will potential transfers go? Base: All Who Would Give A First Preference And Second Preference Vote Second Preference Fine Gael FIRST PREFERENCE* Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Independents Fianna Fáil (21) Fine Gael (28) Sinn Féin (6) Labour (4) Greens (3) Independents/others (37) ( ) Start of Campaign April * Caution should be exercised as base sizes are low

16 16. Ireland South Constituency

17 Introduction A European Constituency Poll was conducted on behalf of The Irish Independent to be published on Saturday 17 th. Interviews were conducted facetoface, inhome, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 510 Interview were conducted at 46 sampling points in the Ireland South Constituency. Interviews were carried out between 13 th 14 th. Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

18 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 510 adults representative of the approximate 1.25 million adults aged 18 and over interviewed on a facetoface basis in the home at 46 sampling points throughout the Ireland South Constituency. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/ 4.3. POLL Interviewing on the poll was carried out between 13 th 14 th. The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Irish Independent. Millward Brown & The Irish Independent. 18.

19 19. The Results

20 Ireland South Constituency Quota is 20 Base: All Aged 18+ (510) FIRST PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS INCL. DON T KNOWS (FF) Brian Crowley (26) (SF) Liadh Ni Riada (11) (FG) Sean Kelly (9) (FG) Deirdre Clune (8) (FG) Simon Harris (5) (Lab) Phil Prendergast (3) (Ind) Diarmuid O'Flynn (5) (GP) Grace O'Sullivan (1) (Ind) Jillian Godsil (2) (FF) Kieran Hartley (2) (Ind) Richard Cahill (0) (Ind) Peter O'Loughlin (0) (Direct Democracy Ireland) Jan Van De Ven (1) (Catholic Democrats) Theresa Heaney (0) (Fis Nua) Donal O'Riordan (0) Don' know (27) * * * FIRST PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS EXCL. DON T KNOWS (FF) Brian Crowley (36) (SF) Liadh Ni Riada (15) (FG) Sean Kelly (12) (FG) Deirdre Clune (12) (FG) Simon Harris (7) (Lab) Phil Prendergast (4) (Ind) Diarmuid O'Flynn (7) (GP) Grace O'Sullivan (1) (Ind) Jillian Godsil (3) (FF) Kieran Hartley (2) (Direct Democracy Ireland) Jan Van De Ven (1) (Ind) Richard Cahill (0) (Catholic Democrats) Theresa Heaney (0) (Ind) Peter O'Loughlin (0) (Fis Nua) Donal O'Riordan (0) * ( ) Start of Campaign April

21 First Preference Party Support Ireland South Constituency Base: All Aged 18+ (510) INCLUDING DON T KNOWS EXCLUDING DON T KNOWS Fine Gael (22) Fine Gael (30) Fianna Fáil (28) 27 Sinn Féin (11) Incl. DK Labour (3) 17 The Green Party (1) Don t know (27) Independents/ others (8) Fianna Fáil (39) 34 Excl. DK 16 Sinn Féin (15) Labour (4) Independents/ others (11) The Green Party (1) 21. ( ) Start of Campaign April

22 Ireland South Constituency Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote SECOND PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS INCL. DON T KNOWS (FG) Sean Kelly (12) (FF) Brian Crowley (9) (FF) Kieran Hartley (12) (FG) Deirdre Clune (12) (FG) Simon Harris (4) (Lab) Phil Prendergast (3) (Ind) Diarmuid O'Flynn (9) (Ind) Jillian Godsil (7) (SF) Liadh Ni Riada (4) (Ind) Richard Cahill (0) (Ind) Peter O'Loughlin (0) (GP) Grace O'Sullivan (5) (Direct Democracy Ireland) Jan Van De Ven (1) (Fis Nua) Donal O'Riordan (0) (Catholic Democrats) Theresa Heaney (0) Don' know (21) SECOND PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS EXCL. DON T KNOWS (FG) Sean Kelly (15) (FF) Brian Crowley (12) (FF) Kieran Hartley (15) (FG) Deirdre Clune (15) (FG) Simon Harris (5) (Lab) Phil Prendergast (3) (Ind) Diarmuid O'Flynn (12) (Ind) Jillian Godsil (9) (SF) Liadh Ni Riada (5) (GP) Grace O'Sullivan (7) (Direct Democracy Ireland) Jan Van De Ven (2) (Ind) Richard Cahill (0) (Catholic Democrats) Theresa Heaney (0) (Ind) Peter O'Loughlin (0) (Fis Nua) Donal O'Riordan (0) ( ) Start of Campaign April

23 Second Preference Party Support Ireland South Constituency Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote INCLUDING DON T KNOWS EXCLUDING DON T KNOWS Fine Gael (28) Fine Gael (36) Fianna Fáil (21) 24 Sinn Féin (4) Incl. DK Labour (3) 18 The Green Party (5) 20 Don t know (21) Independents/ others (17) Fianna Fáil (27) 34 Sinn Féin (5) Excl. DK Labour (3) 13 The Green Party (7) Independents/ others (22) 23. ( ) Start of Campaign April

24 First Preference vote X Demographic Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote GENDER AGE SOCIAL CLASS AREA Male Female < ABC1 C2DEF F* Urban Rural Fianna Fáil (39) Fine Gael (30) Sinn Féin (15) Labour (4) The Green Party (1) Independents/others (11) ( ) Start of Campaign April *Small base size

25 Where will potential transfers go? Base: All who would give a First Preference and Second Preference Vote Second Preference Fine Gael FIRST PREFERENCE* Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Independents Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour Greens Independents/others ( ) Start of Campaign April * Caution should be exercised as base sizes are low

26 26. For more information, contact: Paul Moran at

European Parliament Election Results 2014

European Parliament Election Results 2014 NAMES OF CANDIDATES ELECTED EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTION TOTAL ELECTORATE 820,668 INVALID BALLOT PAPERS 6,368 LYNN BOYLAN (S.F.) 23 MAY 2014 VALID POLL 352,575