ICM Guardian Poll March 2017

Transcription

1 Choice Matters. ICM Guardian Poll March 0 Fieldwork dates: March 0 Interview method: Online Population effectively sampled: All GB adults aged + Online Sampling Method: A nationally representative sample was selected at random from the NewVista panel of 00,000+ adults, with sample selected in proportion to population distribution. Sample size:,0 GB adults aged + Data weighting: In both cases, data were weighted to the profile of all adults aged +. Data were weighted by sex, age, social class, household tenure, work status and region. Targets for the weighted data were derived from the National Readership survey, a random probability survey comprising,000 random facetoface interviews conducted annually. The data were further weighted by declared votes in the 0 general election. The weighting scheme is designed as follows:

2 Weighting by past votes online The sample were fully weighted to the 0 General Election result. Recall on online tests has been superior to that achieved over the telephone, and given the resultant minimal impact of past weight voting online, making provision for faulty recall seems unnecessary. Weighting for turnout ICM has constructed a turnout probability matrix based on an interlocking combination of age and social grade. Turnout estimates from various sources, most notably but not limited to the British Election studies were factored into the matrix in order provide a best estimate for each demographic subgroup, modelled to population incidence and real turnout levels from the 0 General Election. Weighting for political interest The data is weighted to the standard question on level of interest in politics, from BES 0. Voting intentions: ICM derives vote intentions from questions. First of all respondents are asked if they are registered to vote in UK elections. Those not registered are excluded from vote intention calculations. Then, respondents are asked how likely it is that they would be to go and vote in a new election, although this question is no longer used to create turnout factors. Those who say they will vote are asked to say which party they would support in a new election. Respondents are then asked whether they voted in 0 and which party they voted for in that election. The vote figures shown in the tables are calculated after ICM has excluded those who are not registered, say they will not vote, refuse to answer the question or don t know who they would vote for (but see below). Adjustment process : Partial Refuser Reallocation A.) of 0 servative and Labour voters who refuse to answer the vote intention question or say they don t know, are added back to the party they voted for in 0. B.) 0% of 0 voters for all other parties who refuse to answer the vote intention question or say they don t know, are added back to the party they voted for in 0. Adjustment process : Refuser Reallocation refusers are people who refuse/dk their future vote intention AND also refuse/dk who they voted for in the previous General Election (0). Given the lack of any political information about such respondents to date, ICM has excluded them from the vote intention figures. However, our post0 Recall Survey revealed that Refusers (who were subsequently willing to tell us what they did in the 0 General Election) split disproportionately across different parties. Indeed, one important observation was that more than half of all Refusers actually voted servative, with more than twice as many voting servative than Labour. Our new adjustment thus reallocates some Refusers back into the poll sample. This is achieved in the following way:

3 . The number of Refusers on any poll is multiplied by the proportion of Partial Refusers who were (already) reallocated in Adjustment Process. (For example, if 0% of Partial Refusers were added back, then 0% of Refusals will be added back).. Refusers are then multiplied by each party s share of reallocated Partial Refusers. (For example, if 0% of already allocated Partial Refusals were 0 servative voters, then 0% of remaining Refusals will be reallocated to the servatives).. ICM s default position is that Refusers at least look like Partial Refusers in terms of political makeup. However, given the findings of our Recall Poll, we believe that Refusals are probably even more proservative than prolabour. In order to allow for this, the share of Refusals added back to the servatives is increased by 0% (for example, from the 0% mentioned in (, above) to 0%), with a corresponding reduction of 0% in the share of Refuser reallocation to Labour. Questions: The computer tables attached in PDF format show each question, in full, in the order they were put to respondents, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data including but not limited that published. Further enquiries: martin.boon@icmunlimited.com British Polling Council: ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

4 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table QR. As far as you know, is your name on the electoral register, that is, the official list of people who can vote, either where you are living now or somewhere else? Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Yes % % % 00% 0 00% 00% % 00% 0 Yes where living now % 0 % % 0% 00 0% 0 Yes somewhere else/ another address No % Prepared by ICM Research fidential

5 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table QR. As far as you know, is your name on the electoral register, that is, the official list of people who can vote, either where you are living now or somewhere else? Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General EU Ref Vote in June Election 0 Lib DNV/ Lab Dem DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Yes % 0 % 00% % % 00% % % 00 00% 00% 0 % 00% 0 00% 0 00% % 0 Yes where living now 0 % 0 0 % 00 0 % 0 % 0% 0 Yes somewhere else/ another address 0 0 0% 0 No 0 % 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

6 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table QA. Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote, how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Absolutely certain to vote 0% % 0 % 0% 0 0% 0% 0 0% 0 0% % 0% 0% 0% % 0 0% 0 % 0% % 0 % % 0% % % % 0 0 % 0% % 0% 0 0% 0 0 % Certain not to vote % 0 0 Refused Mean Standard deviation Standard error Prepared by ICM Research fidential

7 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table QA. Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote, how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Absolutely certain to vote 0% 0 0% % % % 0% 0 0% % 0% % % 0 0% 0 % % % 0 % 0 % 0 % % 0% % 0% % 0 0% 0 0 % % Certain not to vote % Refused Mean Standard deviation Standard error Prepared by ICM Research fidential

8 Region Educational attainment Social Class Working status Ethnicity Age Gender Still Secon Higher Not Work Work Eng Mid Scotstudyin dary / Degree degree work Part Full Non land South lands North Wales land g NVQ / NVQ / NVQ DE C C AB Student Retired ing time time white White + + Female Male servative 0% % % % % 0% 0% % Labour % % % % 0% % 0 Liberal Democrat 0% 0% 0% % 0% UK Independence Party % 0% 0% % % % % 0% % () Scottish National % Party/SNP Plaid Cymru 0 Green 0% 0 Another party 0 Would note vote % 0% % % 0% % % 0% % 0% % Refused Page Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table QB. The servatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. Prepared by ICM Research fidential If there were a General Election tomorrow which party would you vote for?

9 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table QB. The servatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party would you vote for? Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all servative 00% % % 0% 0% 0% 0% % 0 0 Labour 00% % 0% 0% 0 0 Liberal Democrat 00% 0% UK Independence Party () 00% 0% 0 0 0% 0 % 0 Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru 0% Green 0 Another party 0 0 Would note vote 0 0 % 0 0% % % % % % 0% Refused Prepared by ICM Research fidential

10 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table Data derived from: Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Q.B The servatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (), don't know who they would vote for (%) or refuse to answer () THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g servative 0% 0% 0 % 0 0% % 0 0% 0 0 % Labour % % % 0 % Liberal Democrat 0% % 0 0 0% 0% % 0% % 0 % UK Independence Party () 0% % % 0 0% 0% % % 0% Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green 0 0% 0 Another party Prepared by ICM Research fidential

11 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table Data derived from: Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Q.B The servatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (), don't know who they would vote for (%) or refuse to answer () THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all servative 00% % 0% 0 0% 0 % % Labour 00% 0% Liberal Democrat 00% 0 0 0% % 0% UK Independence Party () 0% 00% % % Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green Another party Prepared by ICM Research fidential

12 Table Published Vote Intention Figures Percentages derived from the responses of respondents Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Page Col percents servative Labour Liberal Democrat SNP Plaid Cymru Green Other Prepared by ICM Research fidential

13 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table Q. Thinking back to the referendum on UK membership of the European Union in June 0, did you... Page 0 Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Vote for the UK to in the EU 0 0% 0 % % 0 % Vote for the UK to the EU 0 0 % 0% 0 0% 0 0 % Did not vote 0 % 0 0% % 0% 0% 0% 0 % Can't remember/refuse 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

14 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table Q. Thinking back to the referendum on UK membership of the European Union in June 0, did you... Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Vote for the UK to in the EU % 00% 0 00% 0 00% 0 00% % Vote for the UK to the EU % 0 00% 00 00% 00% 0 00% % Did not vote 0 0% 0 0 Can't remember/refuse Prepared by ICM Research fidential

15 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table Q. When it comes to the future funding of adult social care, if you had to choose between one of the following alternatives, which one would you prefer? Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Raising taxes for everyone, young and old, to enable councils to provide better adult social care services 0 % % 00 0% 0 0% % 0 % Higher charges or taxes for those reliant on adult social care, to enable them to receive better social care services 0% 0 % 0 0 0% 0% % % 0% Carrying on with the current system, with adult social care funding staying roughly at the level it is now 0% % % 0 0% % 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% % 0% 00 % % % Prepared by ICM Research fidential

16 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table Q. When it comes to the future funding of adult social care, if you had to choose between one of the following alternatives, which one would you prefer? Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Raising taxes for everyone, young and old, to enable councils to provide better adult social care services 0 % % 0% % % 0 0% 0% 0% Higher charges or taxes for those reliant on adult social care, to enable them to receive better social care services 0% 0 0% 0 0% % Carrying on with the current system, with adult social care funding staying roughly at the level it is now 0% 0 0 0% 0 % 0% 0 0 % Prepared by ICM Research fidential

17 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table Q. You may also have seen or heard about a crisis in the funding of care for the elderly. One idea that has been recently suggested is new inheritance tax, which would involve anyone inheriting property having to pay a tax from the proceeds that directly goes into the funding of social care. Would you support or oppose the introduction of this new inheritance tax? Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Support 0 0% % % 0 % % Oppose 00 0% % % % 0 0 0% % 0 0% % 0 0% 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research fidential

18 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table Q. You may also have seen or heard about a crisis in the funding of care for the elderly. One idea that has been recently suggested is new inheritance tax, which would involve anyone inheriting property having to pay a tax from the proceeds that directly goes into the funding of social care. Would you support or oppose the introduction of this new inheritance tax? Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Support % 0% 0% % 0 Oppose % % 0 0% % 0% 0 % % % 0 0% 0% Prepared by ICM Research fidential

19 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table Q. Irrespective of which party you yourself support, which team do you think is better able to manage the economy properly? Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Theresa May & Phillip Hammond 0 % 0 0% 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 Jeremy Corbyn & John McDonnell 0 0% % 0% 0% 00 0% 0 0% 0 Neither % % % 0 % % 0 % % % % 0 0% 0% 0 0% % 0% % % 0 % Prepared by ICM Research fidential

20 ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Table Q. Irrespective of which party you yourself support, which team do you think is better able to manage the economy properly? Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Theresa May & Phillip Hammond 0 0 0% % 0 0 0% 0 0% Jeremy Corbyn & John McDonnell % 0 % % 0% 0% 0% 0% Neither % 0 0% % 0% 0 0% 0 % % 0% 0% % 0 % Prepared by ICM Research fidential

21 Table 0 Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Page Gender Male Female Age + Average age Unweighted 0 0 0% %. Weighted %. Prepared by ICM Research fidential

22 Table 0 Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Page Social Grade AB C C DE Region North Midlands South Unweighted 0 % Weighted 0 % 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

23 Table 0 Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Page 0 Working status Fulltime Parttime Not working but seeking work or temporarily unemployed/sick Not working/not seeking work Retired Student House person/housewife/ Househusband Unweighted Weighted 0 0 0% Q.C Voting in May th 0 General Election servative Labour UK Independence Party () Liberal Democrat/ Liberal Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green Party Another party Did not vote Prefer not to say Prepared by ICM Research fidential

24 Table 0 Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : rdth March 0 Page QI. Political Interest Very interested Fairly interested Not very interested Not at all interested Interested Not Interested Unweighted Weighted 0 0 % Prepared by ICM Research fidential