February 2016 LucidTalk Monthly Tracker Poll Results. KEY POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS REPORT 21st March 2016

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1 February 2016 LucidTalk Monthly Tracker Poll Results UK EU Referendum, NI Party Leader Ratings, and NI Political Party Ratings KEY POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS REPORT 21st March 2016 Subject Monthly Tracker Polling Projects (February 2016) Issue Date Author(s) 21 March Poll-Project: Final Results 21st MARCH 2016 Bill White LucidTalk

2 Project Background Information - LucidTalk Monthly Tracker Polls LucidTalk are running regular 'Monthly Tracker' polls of their established 1,200 member Northern Ireland Opinion Panel during the build-up to the NI Assembly elections in May, and the UK EU Referendum in June. The LucidTalk Opinion Panel (1,200 members) consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. The objective of these scheduled and regular monthly 'Tracker' polls is to research opinion on key issues at key points in time during this critical pre-election period + track changes in trends and opinions about key topics and issues on a monthly basis. These key issues include: Political Party popularity, Party Leader ratings, Key election issues, and EU referendum opinion. For this 'February Tracker' poll-project our 1,200 member NI Opinion Panel was targeted, and invited to participate, and 940 full responses were recorded in terms of the final results. Methodology: Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online for a period of 60 Hours from 12 noon 29th February to 12 midnight Wednesday 2nd March 2016 (60 Hours). The project targeted the established LucidTalk Opinion Panel (1,200 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. 940 full responses were received. A data auditing process was carried out to ensure all completed surveys were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses. All data results have been weighted by gender and community background to reflect the demographic composition of Northern Ireland. All data results produced are accurate to a margin of error of +/-3.0%, at 95% confidence. All surveys and polls may be subject to sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting. NB In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. LUCIDTALK PROFESSIONAL CREDENTIALS LucidTalk is a member of all recognised professional Polling and Market Research organisations, including the UK Market Research Society (UK-MRS), the British Polling Council (BPC), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards. All polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC.

Report and Commentary PARTY LEADER RATINGS: Like our recent BIG100 poll we can see that Arlene Foster has had an impact as the new DUP leader, with 51% of respondents thinking she is putting in a

3 Report and Commentary PARTY LEADER RATINGS: Like our recent BIG100 poll we can see that Arlene Foster has had an impact as the new DUP leader, with 51% of respondents thinking she is putting in a Very Good, or Good performance as DUP party leader. Likewise Martin McGuinness fairs reasonably well, with 44% of respondents thinking he is doing a Very Good, or Good job. Mike Nesbitt is sort of 'treading water' with 40% thinking he's doing a Very Good to Good job, but there are nearly an equal No. thinking the opposite. Colum Eastwood has a high No. of 'neutrals' (the green column) indicating that perhaps the jury is still out on his leadership, with our poll respondents perhaps wanting more evidence about his leadership before making a decision one way or the other. Like Mike Nesbitt, the Alliance leader David Ford comes in with a sort of neutral score overall. It's noticeable that Jim Allister scored the highest of all the party leaders with his 'Very Good or Good' score at 53%, narrowly beating Arlene Foster. Remember we did ask our Opinion Panel respondents to answer this question neutrally, disregarding their own political views. PARTY LEADER RATINGS - Leader Satisfaction Scores: A useful way to look at Leader rating results is by 'Leader satisfaction' scores - this is calculated by adding the combined 'Very Good/Good' scores, and subtracting the combined 'Poor/Very Bad' scores, ignoring the neutral (green column) scores. If calculated this way the Leader ratings come out as (in order of scores from high to low): ARLENE FOSTER (DUP) +33.6, STEPHEN AGNEW +24.9, JIM ALLISTER +23.7, MARTIN MCGUINNESS +23.1, MIKE NESBITT +7.5, DAVID FORD -12.3, COLUM EASTWOOD -18.3, DAVID MCNARRY -60. So Arlene Foster leads the field comfortably with Stephen Agnew, Jim Allister, and Martin McGuinness all in sort of joint second place.

POLITICAL PARTY RATINGS: NB Although we included NI21 in our polling this has now been excluded due to that party not now running any candidates in the forthcoming Assembly election.

4 POLITICAL PARTY RATINGS: NB Although we included NI21 in our polling this has now been excluded due to that party not now running any candidates in the forthcoming Assembly election. So compared to our most recent poll - our BIG100 poll in February, the changes are as follows: DUP +0.4%, Sinn Fein + 0.9%, SDLP +0.6%, UUP +0.7%, Alliance -0.4%, TUV +0.2%, UKIP nc, Green Party nc, NICons -0.7%, PUP nc, PBP +0.2%, Others -1.1%. So all the big parties have advanced some from our last poll - our February BIG100, that is apart from Alliance who have dropped back 0.4 % points. It's noticeable that the TUV have advanced in both of our last two polls, by small amounts admittedly, but as with all polling it's the trends that are important. The main movement has been from the 'Others/Independents' to the main parties. The UUP have recovered the poll score they were hitting in the middle of last year, showing maybe the trend is in their direction.

5 LUCIDTALK NI ASSEMBLY SEAT PREDICTOR: How it works: Our NI Assembly seat predictor model takes into account the last three most recent LucidTalk polls on NI Political Party support i.e. October 2015, February 2016 (BIG100 poll), and February 2016 (Tracker Poll of our NI Opinion Panel - i.e. this report). We also incorporate previous election results including NI Assembly, Westminster, and the Euro election in 2014, including vote transfer patterns. All of these poll results have been included in the modelling, along with the trends. The trends show how political party support has been growing, declining, or remaining the same over the 2010 to 2016 period. Various weighting factors have been applied to all the polling data and research to reflect the structure of the forthcoming NI Assembly election e.g. Alliance concentration of their support in key east NI constituencies, which is a benefit in terms of gaining seats. However the model does not take into account candidate 'name recognition', party campaign machine strengths, and obviously the progress and flow of the election campaign which has yet to really start! So, based on our predictor model, here is our March 2016 NI Assembly seat prediction f:r the May 2016 Northern Ireland Assembly election: DUP: 33.9 Sinn Fein: 26.7 SDLP: 14.7 UUP: 17.2 Alliance: 8.6 TUV: 1.8 UKIP: 0.8 Green: 0.9 NICons: 0.4 PUP: 0.9 PBP: 1.2 Indeps: 0.9 How to interpret the results: The results are presented to one decimal point to allow us to show trends up and down on a monthly basis with our monthly Tracker Opinion panel polls. Obviously as this is our first seat prediction we can't show any up & down trends - as such, watch out for our next seat predictor in early April. The way to interpret the results is e.g. Alliance score 8.6 which means they are predicted for 8 seats with a 60% chance of gaining a ninth seat, the TUV are predicted for 1.8 seats meaning probably Jim Allister is certain to hold his seat, with a good possibility of a second seat - maybe Henry Reilly in South Down? All the other scores can be interpreted in a similar way.

EU - NORTHERN IRELAND IS TRENDING TOWARDS 'Leave': Well we now know the date of the UK EU Referendum - June 23rd, and we'll be polling on this issue on a monthly basis right up to referendum day.

6 EU - NORTHERN IRELAND IS TRENDING TOWARDS 'Leave': Well we now know the date of the UK EU Referendum - June 23rd, and we'll be polling on this issue on a monthly basis right up to referendum day. The benefit of this regular scheduled polling is that it will allow us to see changes in trends and opinions as we approach both the NI Assembly elections and EU referendum day. This is our first monthly tracker poll (February 2016) of the election season so we have no previous 'Tracker' polls to compare with, but we can show trends vs our recent February BIG100 Poll. So here is the way our NI representative Opinion Panel is currently intending to vote in the EU referendum - balanced and weighted to be reflective of Northern Ireland as a whole: So compared to our recent BIG100 Poll (early February) 'Remain' is down 4.5% points, 'Leave' is up 4 points, and the undecided (but intending to vote) has remained exactly the same. So the trend is definitely running towards 'Leave' in terms of Northern Ireland voters. As per our recent BIG100 poll there is a large (very large!) difference of opinion between the traditional NI Unionist and Nationalist communities on this issue: LucidTalk February Opinion Panel 'Tracker' Poll: Unionist Voters: Remain a member of the European Union %, Leave the European Union %, Not Sure/Undecided - But planning to vote %. Nationalist/Republican Voters: Remain a member of the European Union %, Leave the European Union - 9.3%, Not Sure/Undecided - But planning to vote - 7.0%. Alliance/Green/Other Voters: Remain a member of the European Union %, Leave the European Union - 7.1%, Not Sure/Undecided - But planning to vote %.

7 Note that 'Leave' within the Unionist community has dropped 4 points, but Remain also dropped a point, i.e. compared with our February BIG100 poll, with Unionist undecideds up 5 points. Perhaps Unionists who were originally Remain or Leave are having a second think about the issue and have moved to 'Undecideds' - NB most of those who have moved to the Undecideds, were originally 'Leave'. On the Nationalist/Republican side there was huge support in our BIG100 poll for 'Remain', and that support is still there with this Tracker poll - 84% of Nationalist/Republicans intending to vote 'Remain'. We also asked about what were the factors that people were considering in terms of making up their minds about the EU referendum. The main reasons for people voting 'Remain' were: (1) NI specifically gains from the EU - business, agriculture, social programs etc. (2) UK & NI are net beneficiaries from the EU i.e. the UK gets more out than it puts in. (3) To remain in same trading block as Republic of Ireland, Interestingly 'To maintain cohesion of UK i.e. avoid Scotland leaving UK' figured a bit as a reason, but not that high up in terms of frequency of mentions. Again, most of the voluntary comments that came from the SDLP and Sinn Fein voters all stressed the attractiveness of the all-ireland economy and country, in the context of the UK staying in the EU. In terms of those who said they were going to vote to 'Leave' here are the main factors stated in order of how popular they were indicated: (1) The EU is becoming an super-state not a trading block & not democratically accountable for decisions. (2) Immigration - UK & NI needs more control of its borders. (3) UK is a net contributor to the EU & NI would gain from the saving. It should be noted that No. 2 above i.e. immigration, and lack of border controls, was again (like our BIG100 poll) very close to being the No. 1 reason. Again, perhaps surprisingly, the reason: 'UK would fully control who it pays benefits to' came in way down the list of reasons in terms of the frequency of mentions etc. This again shows that the 'Leave ' supporters seem to be more concerned about border and immigration controls, than controlling benefits to immigrants once they are in the UK? In addition, the 'Undecideds' showed that the following two factors were uppermost in their minds in terms of deciding what way to vote in the referendum: (a) NI specifically gains from the EU - business, agriculture, social programs etc. (reason to remain) (b) Immigration - UK & NI needs more control of its borders. (reason to leave) It's key to note, that even among the 'Undecideds', immigration and border controls is a concern, and is in a battle with the gains that NI obtains from EU membership, i.e. in terms of the Undecideds eventually deciding which way to vote. Remember the Undecideds indicated they hadn't made up their minds yet on the EU referendum issue, but were planning to vote. Again, it's important to note that the majority of the 'Undecideds' come from the Unionist community. The key to the NI decision is going to be those 15% of voters who have yet to make up their mind - that could swing the result either way. Plus remember, and as we said before, the result in Great Britain could be very tight, and there is a possibility that the NI result could end up deciding the overall UK decision. So there's a lot to play for. NEXT OPINION PANEL MARCH FULL REPORT WEEK BEGINNING 4TH APRIL.

Mid September 2016 CONTENTS

Mid September 2016 CONTENTS Mid September 2016 LucidTalk Bi-Monthly Tracker Poll (Northern Ireland) Results Issues: UK EU Referendum - Northern Ireland (NI) Post Referendum views, and a NI Border Poll? POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS - GENERAL