Campaign '00 in the Interregnum: A Close Race, With Room to Move

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: CAMPAIGN UPDATE - 6/11/00 EMBARGO: 6:30 P.M. BROADCAST, 9 P.M. PRINT/WEB, Monday, June 12, 2000 Campaign '00 in the Interregnum: A Close Race, With Room to Move With fishing trips and barbecues beckoning, public attention to the presidential campaign has ebbed to its lowest of the year: Just under half of Americans are now following the contest closely, down steeply from 70 percent at the height of the primary season. That's no surprise: Caught in its quadrennial interregnum between primaries and conventions, the contest today lacks the drama of the early primaries. Views of the candidates seem locked in a holding pattern, as do vote preferences themselves. "Closely Following" the Presidential Race N.H. Primary Today Source: ABC News/Washington Post Polls Dec 16-Jan 6-Feb 27-Feb 11-Mar 2-Apr 11-Jun The contest remains close a four-point lead for George W. Bush among registered voters in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, percent. It's similar among likely voters, and adding Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader to the mix makes no real difference.

2 Polls don't foretell the future; the numbers well may move as attention rises. All the same, preferences today, with 49 percent of Americans following the race closely, are almost identical to their level in February, when seven in 10 were watching closely. Following Presidential preference the race among registered voters closely Bush Gore June 11 49% 49% 45 Feb LEADERSHIP Gore moved up in the winter and early spring, but since has lost some momentum. His personal favorability rating has slipped to 45 percent, its lowest since (Bush's is 50 percent.) And as Gore strikes out this week to claim Bill Clinton's mantle of economic stewardship, he lags on that subject an effect of the perceived leadership deficit that's dogged his candidacy. Americans by a five-point margin pick Bush over Gore as the candidate they better trust to handle the nation's economy. That deprives Gore of assistance from an issue that arguably he should own, given the economic boom of the last several years. This shortfall plus a very close contest in trust to handle Social Security, traditionally a Democratic issue underscore Gore's leadership problem: Just 48 percent of Americans call him a strong leader, compared to 65 percent for Bush. "Weak leader" may be the customary springtime assessment of a sitting vice president; Gore supporters point to Bush's father, who trailed Michael Dukakis in spring 1988 but went on to win in November. The two previous sitting vice presidents to run for the top office, however, both lost Hubert Humphrey in 1968 and Richard Nixon in Gores' leadership rating does have potential for improvement; it rose by 14 points as he whupped Bill Bradley this winter, before dropping back in this poll. Moreover, it was Bill Clinton who suffered from weak leadership ratings in early June 1992; he overcame them to win the presidency. "He's a strong leader" 6/11/00 6/7/92 Bush Jr. Gore Bush Sr. Clinton Yes 65% 48 56% 40 No At least for the moment, Gore's credentials as an experienced hand on the federal tiller don't seem an effective counterpoint to his leadership shortfall. Fifty-eight percent of Americans think Gore "can get things done." But 66 percent think that's true of Bush.

3 Bush's somewhat weaker point is in understanding the problems of average Americans; 48 percent think he does, compared to 53 percent for Gore. That compares to 59 percent for Clinton and just 38 percent for then-president Bush in June President Bush's broadly perceived lack of empathy was a chief weakness that Clinton exploited. "He understands the problems of average Americans" 6/11/00 6/7/92 Bush Jr. Gore Bush Sr. Clinton Yes 48% 53 38% 59 No LA DIFFERENCE Whatever their current preferences, most Americans do see a substantive choice in a Bush-Gore election. Sixty-eight percent think there's "a real difference" between these two candidates on the issues; and about as many, 66 percent, see "a real difference" in terms of Bush and Gore's personal qualities. Differences on the issues are especially apparent to people who are following the race closely. GROUPS Vote preferences among men have been very stable this spring, and remain so; in this poll they support Bush by an eight-point margin, percent. Preferences among women have shown more movement, ranging from a Bush advantage last fall to a Gore advantage this winter. Today it's roughly a dead heat, percent. Looking at the vote by race sheds more light on the difference by sex. This poll finds hardly any difference between white men and white women; both groups support Bush by double-digit margins. The gender gap currently is wider among nonwhite men and women. ----All White--- --Nonwhite-- Men Women Men Women Men Women Bush 51% 48 56% 54 35% 24 Gore Among all whites, Bush leads by percent; among nonwhites, a customarily more Democratic group, Gore leads by percent. SWING Independents and white Catholics are the two classic swing voter groups that is, groups whose preferences swing between parties from election to election, and that are large enough to heavily affect the outcome. Bush currently leads by percent among independents; among white Catholics the race is tied, percent. Gore has a slight four-point edge among moderates. But, while Gore leads by 42 points among liberals, Bush leads by 47 points among conservatives and there are half again as many conservatives as liberals in this country.

4 METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone June 8-11, 2000, among a random national sample of 1,204 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: Here are the full results (*= less than 0.5 percent): 1. How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 6/11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ * 2/6/ /16/ * 12/15/ * 10/31/ * 2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2000 presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don t think Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin. 6/11/ * 5/10/ /2/ * 3/11/ * 2/27/ * 2/6/ * 1/16/ * 12/15/ /31/ * 3. If the election for president in November 2000 were being held today, and the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 6/11/ * 1 2 5/10/ * 1 3 4/2/ * 2 2 3/11/ /27/ /6/ * 2 1 1/16/ /15/ * /31/ * 1 2 Net Leaned Vote, General Population:

5 Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 6/11/ * 2 2 5/10/ * 2 3 4/2/ * 2 2 3/11/ /27/ /6/ * 2 1 1/16/ * /15/ * /31/ * 2 2 9/2/ * 3 2 8/22/ /6/ /14/ * 2 2 Unleaned, General Population: Neither Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 10/25/ /21/ /19/ /23/ How about if the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), (George W. Bush, the Republican), (Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate) and (Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 6/11/ * 1 2 5/10/ Net Leaned Vote, General Population: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 6/11/ * 2 2 5/10/ * Which presidential candidate, (Gore) or (Bush), do you trust to do a better job on each of those issues? First is (INSERT ITEM) 6/11/00 Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin. A. Protecting the Social Security system B. Handling the national economy Trend: A. Protecting the Social Security system Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin. 6/11/ /10/ /2/ /11/

6 10/31/ B. Handling the national economy 6/11/ /2/ /11/ /31/ Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (Bush/Gore), or not? 6/11/ Bush Gore No No Yes No op. Yes No op. A. He understands the problems of people like you B. He is a strong leader C. He can get things done Trend (where available): A. He understands the problems of people like you Bush Gore Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 6/11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /13/99 NA NA NA /14/ B. He is a strong leader Bush Gore Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 6/11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /13/99 NA NA NA /14/ C. No trend. 7. Would you describe the state of the nation s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? ----Excellent/Good Not so good/poor----- No NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor opin. 6/11/ * 2/27/ *

7 10/31/ /2/ /14/ /1/ /1/98 LV * 10/13/ * Call for full trend. 8. Regardless of how you might vote, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of(gore/bush), or perhaps you don t know enough to say. How about (Gore/Bush)? 6/11/00 Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Al Gore George W. Bush Trend: Al Gore Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 6/11/ /2/ /27/ /31/ /2/ /6/ /14/ /14/ /21/ /12/ /4/ /31/ /30/ /25/ /24/ /19/ /13/ /10/ /24/ /9/ /19/ /31/ /15/ /27/ /14/ /23/92 RV /19/92 RV George W. Bush Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 6/11/ /2/ /27/ /31/ /2/ /6/ /14/ /14/ /19/ Do you think there s a real difference between Bush and Gore on the issues you care about, or not? Yes No No opinion 6/11/

8 10. Do you think there s a real difference between Bush and Gore in terms of their personal qualities, or not? Yes No No opinion 6/11/ ***END***