National Opinion Poll: June for Publication on 3 rd July 2016

Transcription

1 1. National Opinion Poll: June for Publication on 3 rd July 2016

2 Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 3 rd July The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, personal financial circumstances and attitudes towards gangland internment. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 1,000 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 18 th to 30 th June Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

3 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 1,000 adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in the home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1 POLL The 1,000 interviews on the poll were carried out between 18 th and 30 th June The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent

4 4. The Results

5 Fall in support for Independents, while main parties benefit This Millward Brown Poll, conducted over twelve days up until Thursday, is our first since the General Election. It is therefore our first measurement of public opinion since the tortuous period of government formation. Interviewing also coincided with the lead up, and aftermath of the UK Brexit referendum a result that undoubtedly has huge ramifications for Ireland and this poll identifies some of them. First off, the state of the parties. Compared to the General Election result, there has been some movement of late. Fine Gael will be relieved to see some momentum upwards in support since its disastrous General Election performance. They now stand at 30pc, up four points from February s national vote. Fianna Fail has also improved its position since then, albeit by a more modest 2pc to 26pc. The election of Brendan Howlin as leader has done little to resuscitate Labour s drift towards obscurity; just seven per cent opt for the party. What is more fascinating is the contrasting fortunes of Sinn Fein and Others/independents. On paper, it would seem that Sinn Fein have seen a dramatic boost in their fortunes. But SF is a party that often flatters to deceive when there is no General Election on the immediate horizon the value of their stock can be often overpriced, as their inability to get their supporters to vote on the day is well documented. In addition, the hard left will continue to nibble at its flanks. There is, however, potentially a more important development. Whilst parties such as AAA, the Greens and Social Democrats have maintained their support, the proportion of the electorate opting for independent candidates has dropped back significantly. It may well be that following the huge groundswell of support for them in February, the public has realised that creating such a fractured Parliament isn t necessarily a good thing taking 63 days to form a Government tends to fray the nerves somewhat (not that they were the only ones to blame). 5.

6 Fall in support for Independents, while main parties benefit (Cont d) 6. In addition, there are now independents sitting around the cabinet table, batting for Government policy; their voting public may have assumed they were electing them in to bowl. This new Government s satisfaction levels remain similar to the previous administration a rather underwhelming 28pc are happy with their performance so far. Of course, these are early days, but three in five are unhappy. With such an eclectic mix of characters propping up this Government, this will be one metric to watch closely in the coming months. Looking at Party Toxicity (that is, which grouping people would NOT vote for), results have remained relatively stable. Of the main parties, Sinn Fein, followed by Fine Gael and Labour, remain the most likely to alienate. As before, Fianna Fail are least toxic of them (although one in four would not consider them). This measure provides an important yardstick to understand where Dail seats will go, given the complexity of the Irish electoral system. Reflecting this to a certain extent is that Micheal Martin is by far the party leader attracting most satisfaction 43pc are happy with his performance up sixteen points since the last comparable poll (although at 31pc, Gerry Adams is second most effective). Enda Kenny and Brendan Howlin bring up the rear at 27pc respectively. It would seem that Martin s statesman-like decision to support the Government (in some circumstances) is paying dividends. Of course, focussing on the domestic political scene in a vacuum this weekend is rather pointless. The impact of Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time to come. This poll highlights this in perfect clarity. From the outset, the Irish Population was firmly in favour of Britain remaining within the EU. A pan- European Poll, conducted by Millward Brown in Ireland, and our TNS Colleagues across Europe earlier in June, found that 70pc of Irish people wanted the UK to remain, second only Germany (79pc). By Britain leaving, the narrative has changed utterly. From Enda Kenny s point of view, this is a political nightmare. He is now stuck between protecting the interests of Anglo Irish trade and cross border relationships, and appeasing the EU.

7 Fall in support for Independents, while main parties benefit (Cont d) This will be a very fine tightrope to walk. The problem for Kenny is that for him to negotiate with Europe on a special deal for Ireland will potentially expose his perceived weakness to stand up to Europe. An unforgiving Europe may be in no mood to appease anything to the UK. A hawkish attitude has already been signalled by Jean Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, Francois Hollande of France and his Belgian and Spanish counterparts. Of course, they have their own motives (both national and European) to do so, but it means that Kenny will be very much fighting off the back foot. In addition, he will not have his traditional ally, the UK, to back him up. Under any circumstances this would be extremely difficult, but Kenny (and Micheal Noonan) have additional baggage they are still haunted, and taunted, by the perceived ineffectiveness of the last time they played hardball with Europe their Seismic Shift in European Policy on debt last time out was anything but. Ironically however, the instability that Brexit causes may well prolong the life of this government. There is a general consensus that this is a transitional administration over seven in ten (72pc) believe it will last no more than two years. Yet an analysis of interviews conducted before the Brexit result announcement vs Post Result announcement suggests that people are drifting towards the upper end of that time scale; those believing the Government will last 18 months the two years shifted from 29pc to 38pc. It may well be that stability in the short term at least is the most sensible option. There is no doubt that Brexit has spooked the Nation. One of our longer term tracking questions asks if people believe they will be financially better off, worse off or about the same this time next year. When we asked this last in February, it measured a positive result for the first time since the crash (more said they would be better off than worse off). This has regressed more recently. We are equally as likely to have a positive or negative outlook (22pc each). What is of note however is that positivity was trending at 27pc up until the Friday of the Brexit announcement, and slipped to 19pc once the announcement was made. 7. It illustrates that the Irish electorate are observant of the world around them and the implications that certain decisions can have. Looking at the political turmoil across the water, it seems that for some of them, this trait was sadly lacking.

8 8. National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions

9 Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows General Election Result 2016 Opinion Poll June 2016 Including Don t Knows Opinion Poll June 2016 Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael 26 Fine Gael 24 Fine Gael 30 Labour Fianna Fáil Green Party Independents/others Renua Ireland AAA-PBP Social Democrats Sinn Féin Labour Fianna Fáil Green Party Independents/Others AAA-PBP Social Democrats Sinn Féin Don t know Labour Fianna Fáil Green Party Independents/ Others AAA-PBP Social Democrats Sinn Féin Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

10 Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference June 20 th 28 th 2013 Aug 3 rd -12 th 2013 Aug 17 th -27 th 2013 Sep 13 th 25 th 2013 Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th 2014 Feb 19 th -28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th 2014 Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th -18 th 2014 Oct 21 st 31 st 2014 Dec 8 th -18 th 2014 Jan 30th -Feb 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd th -26 th June th-30 th July th Oct- 6 th Nov th Jan- 4 th Feb 2016 General Election th -30 th June 2016 Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour Green Party Independents/ others* Independents/Others: June 2016 AAA-PBP 4 * Includes all other parties Social Democrats 2 Independent Candidates Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

11 Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party Independents/Others* Jun 20th- Aug 3rd- Aug 17th- Sep 13th- Sep 30th- 28th th th th 2013 Oct 9th Nov 3rd- 13th Jan 15th- Feb 19th- Apr 5th- Jul 18th- Sep 9th- Oct 21st- Dec 8th- 24th th th th th st th Jan 29th- Feb 9th Mar 24th- Apr 2nd th-26th Jun th-30th Jul th Oct- 6th Nov th Jan - 4th Feb General 18th-30th Election June Independents/Others: June 2016 AAA-PBP 4 * Includes all other parties Social Democrats 2 Independent Candidates Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

12 Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference FINE GAEL FIANNA FÁIL SINN FÉIN LABOUR INDEPENDENTS OTHERS* *ULA now included in Independents/others from late May onwards *People Before Profit now included in Independents/others (July 2014) Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

13 Satisfaction with this new Government s performance is similar to the previous one; nearly three in ten are happy Nearly Three in ten are happy HIGHER AMONG Age DEs 67 Munster Residents 67 Fianna Fáil Supporters 70 Sinn Féin Supporters 86 Independents Supporters 80 Dissatisfied (62) 28 Satisfied (29) Don t know (9) HIGHER AMONG Males 33 Age ABs 43 Dublin Residents 32 Fine Gael Supporters 66 Labour Supporters 34 ( )= Feb 2016 Poll Results 13. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

14 Satisfaction with Government Over Time 2013 results 2014 results 2015 results 2016 results June 20 th 28 th 13 Aug 3 rd -12 th 13 Aug 17 th -27 th 13 Sept 13 th -25 th 13 Sept 30 th - Oct 9 th 13 Nov 3 rd -13 th 13 Jan 15 th -24 th 14 Feb 19 th 28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th 2013 Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th 18 th 2014 Oct 21 st 31 st 2014 Dec 8 th 18 th 2014 Jan 30th Feb 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd th -26 th June th -30 th July th Oct- 6 th Nov th Jan- 4 th Feb th-30th June 2016 Dissatisfied Satisfied Don t know

15 Satisfaction with Party Leaders Enda Kenny Joan Burton Brendan Howlin Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Sep 14 Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb Mar/ Apr June July Oct/ Nov Feb 16 Jun 16 Sep 14 Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb Mar/ Apr June July Oct/ Nov Feb 16 Jun 16 Sep 14 Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb Mar/ Apr June July Oct/ Nov Feb 16 Jun 16 Sep 14 Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb Mar/ Apr June July Oct/ Nov Feb 16 Jun 16 Satisfied Dissatisfied Don t know (11) (8) (10) (12) (7) (9) (9) (9) (11) (11) (22) (17) (16) (16) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (30) (21) (17) (20) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (18) (24) (17) (20) (21) (12) (18) (19) (18) (21) (18) 15. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

16 Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny HIGHER AMONG Age DEs 71 Munster Residents 71 Fianna Fáil Supporters 81 Sinn Féin Supporters 86 Independents Supporters 79 Dissatisfied (62) 27 Satisfied (27) Don t know (11) HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 38 Dublin Residents 31 Fine Gael Supporters 64 Labour Supporters 47 ( )= Feb 2016 Poll Results 16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

17 Satisfaction with Brendan Howlin Satisfied HIGHER AMONG Age Sinn Féin Supporters 62 Independents Supporters 50 Dissatisfied Don t know HIGHER AMONG Age Dublin Residents 36 Fine Gael Supporters 45 Labour Supporters Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?

18 Satisfaction with Michéal Martin HIGHER AMONG Age Satisfied (27) HIGHER AMONG Age Leinster Residents 45 Labour Supporters 43 Sinn Féin Supporters 60 Independents Supporters 54 Dissatisfied (48) 38 Munster Residents 51 Farming Community 48 Fianna Fáil Supporters 77 Fine Gael Supporters Don t know (25) ( )= Feb 2016 Poll Results 18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

19 Satisfaction with Gerry Adams HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 64 Fianna Fáil Supporters 66 Fine Gael Supporters 61 Dissatisfied (51) Satisfied (27) HIGHER AMONG Age C2DEs 38 Munster Residents 40 Sinn Féin Supporters 82 Labour Supporters 58 Independent Supporters Don t know (21) ( )= Feb 2016 Poll Results 19. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

20 Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support SATISFIED Enda Kenny Total 27 Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other Party Supporters* Brendan Howlin Michéal Martin Gerry Adams DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny Brendan Howlin Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? * Includes all other parties

21 Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil remain the least toxic of the main parties WOULD NOT CONSIDER Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other party Supporters* Fine Gael (34) Labour (31) Fianna Fáil (24) Sinn Féin (37) Socialist Party (19) AAA-People Before Profit (16) Green Party (n/a) Social Democrats (9) ( )= Feb 2016 Poll Results * Includes all other parties 21. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

22 22. National Opinion Poll: June Additional Questions for Publication on 3 rd July 2016

23 Over half believe that Enda Kenny should resign; Just 54pc of FG supporters remain loyal to him HIGHER AMONG Age DEs 62 Munster Residents 63 Fianna Fáil Supporters 72 Should Resign Should Remain HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 32 Conn/Ulster Residents 31 Fine Gael Supporters 54 Sinn Féin Supporters 77 Labour Supporters 33 Independents Supporters It depends Don t know 23. Q. Do you think that Enda Kenny should remain as leader of Fine Gael, or should he resign?

24 Leo Varadkar is the preferred option for Fine Gael leader in the event of Kenny resigning Leo Varadkar 25 Simon Coveney 18 Frances Fitzgerald Simon Harris Pascal Donoghue None of them Among FG Supporters: Leo Varadkar 30 Simon Coveney 26 Frances Fitzgerald 7 Pascal Donoghue 4 Simon Harris 3 None of them 5 Somebody else 3 Don t know 21 Somebody else 6 Don't know Q. If Enda Kenny were to resign as leader of Fine Gael, who would you like to see replace him?

25 Majority believe the Government will last no more than 2 years, although post-brexit opinions have shifted Up to six months 10 Up to a year 27 Up to 18 months 16 Up to two years Up to three years Up to four years Total FG FF LAB SF Others Pre- Brexit Post- Brexit Up to 1 year months to 2 years years It will last full term 5 It Depends 2 Don t know Q. In your own opinion, how long do you think the current Government will last in office?

26 Personal situation: Over half feel no better off compared to last year and opinions are split for the year ahead. Brexit has spooked the nation June 2015 Compared to last year This time next year? June 2017 Better Off (16) 17 Better Off (23) 22 Same (48) 53 Same (43) 48 Total Pre- Brexit Post- Brexit Better off Same Worse off () = Feb 2016 Results 26. Worse Off (33) Don t know (3) Net Difference* (-17) Q. Taking everything into consideration would you say you are personally better off, worse off or in the same situation as you were THIS TIME LAST YEAR? Worse Off (17) Don t know (17) 22 Net Difference* (+6) 0 8 Q. This time NEXT YEAR, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now? *= Better off minus worse off

27 Historical Picture: Personal Situation Compared To This Time Last Year. Trended over time COMPARED TO LAST YEAR BETTER OFF SAME WORSE OFF Pre Celtic Mid Celtic Post 9/11 '02 Tiger '92 Tiger '97 Sep '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Sep '09 Mar '10 Sep '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sep '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 Oct/Nov '15 Feb '16 Jun '16 Net Change Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now?

28 Historical Picture: Personal Situation This Time Next Year. Trended over time THIS TIME NEXT YEAR? BETTER OFF SAME WORSE OFF Pre 91 Celtic Tiger ' Mid 96 Celtic Tiger ' Post 9/11 '02 Sept '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Set '09 Mar '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Dec'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Dec '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15Oct/Nov '15Feb '16 Jun '16 NET DIFFERENCE Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now?

29 In the case of Gangland activity, nearly half are hawkish they feel that internment without trial is appropriate IS INTERNMENT APPROPRIATE? HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 42 No, it is not appropriate response 32 Yes, it is an appropriate response HIGHER AMONG Age Age Independents Supporters 43 Labour Supporters Munster Residents 52 Fianna Fáil Supporters 52 9 Fine Gael Supporters 52 Labour Supporters 54 It depends 13 Don t know 29. Q. Do you believe that internment without trial is an appropriate response for those who Gardai believe to be involved in Gangland activity or not?

30 For more information, please contact: Paul Moran Millbank House Arkle Road Sandyford Dublin 18 t (1)