General Election Opinion Poll. November 2017

Transcription

1 General Election Opinion Poll November 2017

2 Methodology and Weighting RED C interviewed a random sample of 1,004 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 20 th -24 th November A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered. Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted at the last election and weights this to the exact result at the last election. Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 8 to 10 are included as being those who will definitely go and vote. In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and AIMRO. 2

3 First Preference Vote Intention 26 th November 2017 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) Undecided Voters Solidarity-PBP -1 Social Democrats +1 Green = Renua 1% +1 Fine Gael 27% -2 Ind. Alliance = Fianna Fáil 26% +1 Sinn Féin 16% +2 Labour 6% = Ind. Candidates -2 3

4 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% <1% 1% 0% 1% 7% 6% 5% 6% 6% 8% 12% % 16% 1 16% 26% 27% % 25% 26% 30% 29% 27% First Preference Vote Intention November 17 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) Election July 9th Sep 22nd Oct 29 th Nov 26th Fine Gael 27% Fianna Fáil 26% Sinn Féin 16% Ind. Candidate Labour 6% Ind. Alliance Solidarity -PBP Social Democrats Green Renua 1% 4

5 Voting Intention x Demographics If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) Total (n=701) Male (n=352) Gender Age Social Class Region Female (n=349) (n=160) (n=294) 55+ (n=247) ABC1 (n=314) C2DE (n=333) F (n=50) Dublin (n=188) ROL (n=178) Munster (n=204) Conn/ Ulster (n=132) Fianna Fail 26% 26% 26% 16% 25% 3 22% 30% 2 17% 38% 2 29% Fine Gael 27% 22% % 31% 28% 2 40% 22% 32% 28% 27% Labour 6% 7% 6% 6% 5% 8% 2% 6% 6% 8% 1% Sinn Fein 16% 19% 1 19% 19% 11% 12% 22% 6% 2 11% 21% Green Party 5% 2% 5% 1% 5% 2% 6% 1% 5% 2% Independent Alliance Candidate Solidarity - People Before Profit (Solidarity-PBP) Other Independent Candidate 5% 7% 5% 1% 6% 2% 0 5% - 8% 1% 1% 9% 11% 8% 12% 9% 15% 6% 8% 1 1 Renua 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 2% 0-1% - 0 Social Democrats 1% 1% 5% 2% 6% 2% 0 Please note higher margin of error when looking at sample size within demographic breakdowns. 5

6 First Preference Vote Intention If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 40% Fine Gael 35% % Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Independent Solidarity-PBP Ind Alliance Green Party Social Democrats Renua 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% 27% 26% 16% 6% 1% Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, Independents/Others split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua separately 6

7 First Preference Vote Intention 2009 to 2017 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 45% Fianna Fáil 40% 35% Fine Gael Labour Independent Sinn Féin Ind Alliance Solidarity-PBP Green Party Social Democrats Renua 30% 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% 27% 26% 16% 6% 1% Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, Independents/Others split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua separately 7

8 First Preference Vote Intention Since GE 2016 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 35% 30% Confidence and supply agreement reached Leo Varadkar becomes leader of FG and Taoiseach Fine Gael 25% 27% 26% Fianna Fáil 20% Sinn Féin Independent 15% 16% Labour Ind Alliance Solidarity-PBP Green Party Social Democrats Renua 5% 0% GE 2016 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 July '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 6% 1% 8

9 Likely Impact if Mary Lou McDonald Becomes New leader of Sinn Féin

10 Impact if Mary Lou McDonald Takes over As Sinn Fein Leader. This weekend Gerry Adams leader of Sinn Fein announced that he would step down as leader in The most likely candidate to lead the party is the current deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald. How much do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements other people have made were she to become leader Don't Know 20% Strongly I would be more likely to vote for Sinn Fein Don't Know 19% Strongly I would be happy for Sinn Fein to be in Government Net: Disagree 56% 41% 21% Slightly Net: Disagree 57% 40% 21% Slightly 35% Don't Know 5% 60% 32% Strongly Gerry Adams will still be running things behind the scenes 50% Don't Know 47% 30% Strongly I don t trust Sinn Fein whoever is leader Net: Disagree 28% Slightly Net: Disagree 17% Slightly 10

11 Impact If Mary Lou Leads SF; I would be more likely to vote for Sinn Fein - % This weekend Gerry Adams leader of Sinn Fein announced that he would step down as leader in The most likely candidate to lead the party is the current deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald. How much do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements other people have made were she to become leader 41% Gender 4 37% Age % 39% 3 41% 61% 59% Social Class ABC1: 38% C2DE: 4 Party Support 28% Fianna Fail 3 37% 19% Fine Gael Labour Ind Region Conn/ Ulster 38% Munster 3 Rest of Leinster 38% Dublin 51% 11

12 Impact If Mary Lou Leads SF; I would be happy for Sinn Fein to be in Government - % This weekend Gerry Adams leader of Sinn Fein announced that he would step down as leader in The most likely candidate to lead the party is the current deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald. How much do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements other people have made were she to become leader Social Class 40% ABC1: 36% Gender Party Support 4 37% Age Region 31% 22% 39% 50% 4 61% C2DE: 45% 2 21% 2 Fianna Fail 41% Fine Gael Labour Ind Conn/ Ulster 41% Munster 29% Rest of Leinster 40% Dublin 51% 12

13 Impact If Mary Lou Leads SF; Gerry Adams will still be running things behind the scenes - % This weekend Gerry Adams leader of Sinn Fein announced that he would step down as leader in The most likely candidate to lead the party is the current deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald. How much do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements other people have made were she to become leader 60% Gender 59% 61% Age % 68% 62% 60% 5 Social Class ABC1: 62% Party Support Region C2DE: 60% 6 66% 68% 6 Fianna Fail Fine Gael Labour Ind Conn/ Ulster 57% Munster 66% Rest of Leinster 6 Dublin 5 13

14 Impact If Mary Lou Leads SF; I don t trust Sinn Fein whoever is leader - % This weekend Gerry Adams leader of Sinn Fein announced that he would step down as leader in The most likely candidate to lead the party is the current deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald. How much do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements other people have made were she to become leader 47% Gender 47% 46% Age % 52% 48% 47% 5 Social Class ABC1: 51% Party Support Region C2DE: 4 56% Fianna Fail 6 52% 39% Fine Gael Labour Ind Conn/ Ulster 45% Munster 5 Rest of Leinster 46% Dublin 42% 14

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