National Opinion Poll: February for Publication on 19 th February /PM

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Miranda Dixon
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1 National Opinion Poll: ruary for Publication on 19 th ruary /PM 1

Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 19 th ruary 2017.

2 Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 19 th ruary The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, the Fine Gael leadership debate and the public s personal financial circumstances. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 960 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 6 th to 16 th ruary Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

3 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 960 adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in-home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.2 The 960 interviews on the poll were carried out between 6 th to 16 th ruary POLL The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent

4 The Results

5 After the ugliest week in years, FF re-emerges as poster boy This Latest Kantar Millward Brown Opinion Poll, conducted over ten days up to and including Thursday, coincided with one of the most dysfunctional weeks in Irish Politics in several years. It captures the public s reaction to an extraordinary seven days, where shifts in the narrative moved at a pace that the Trump administration would be proud of. For Enda Kenny, the news is grim. Fine Gael has dropped four points since the last comparable poll in October. It will provide added impetus for those clamouring for his resignation. That is a foregone conclusion, but it simply weakens his hand further in terms of leaving office at a time of his suiting. Unless the hawks in his party are magnanimous, he may not reach the milestone of being the longest serving leader of Fine Gael. Of course, this is simply a snapshot, and the public has shown themselves to be fickle opinion ebbs and flows like the tide. However, for Kenny, the tide is now firmly against him. The main beneficiary of this poll is undoubtedly Fianna Fail. They have increased six points to 33pc, and have opened up clear blue water between themselves and the main Government party. This is by far the highest rating they have received since the crash. They have put on a competent performance being in pseudo opposition. Their response to the current McCabe controversy has been measured. But let s not think that this is solely because they think it is the right thing to do. Fianna Fail are playing the long game. Micheal Martin chose to be statesman-like in terms of his response to this week. The alternative was that a general election would be called. Most politicians don t have the appetite for one, and the public certainly do not. For Fianna Fail to pull the plug could have backfired spectacularly. The public, still weary from last year s election and the tortuous government formation, could well have taken out their frustration on FF for a perceived knee jerk reaction for political gain. 5

6 After the ugliest week in years, FF re-emerges as poster boy (Cont d) Looking at our poll results since the General Election, Fianna Fail s support has been increasing incrementally, and has surged this week. They have, in effect outmanoeuvred Fine Gael over the past twelve months. Of course, they don t have the baggage of trying to cobble and continually gel together a disparate group which makes up the cabinet table. Sinn Fein, generally the star of mid-term opinion polling, is stagnating. They haven t made any move, despite the Government s travails. Satisfaction with the Government has unsurprisingly slipped. Nearly two in three (64pc) are unhappy with its performance. Traditionally we see a bounce in government satisfaction in the first poll of a new year (arguably because they have been out of view over the Christmas recess). This long term phenomenon has been reversed this year. Of course, the focus this weekend is on Enda Kenny, and his forecast imminent departure. Ironically, the events of the past week, whilst dramatic as they were, have not done much damage to his personal satisfaction ratings. The numbers happy with his performance have dropped two points to 27pc, well within the margin of error. Reflecting other findings, the most effective leader is Micheal Martin (up one to 44pc). Satisfaction among his own FF supporters is at an all-time high (84pc) Turning again the Mr Kenny, the proportion of those who feel he should resign has remained steady (albeit deeply in negative territory). Interestingly, satisfaction with his performance among his own party supporters has actually increased (up five to 73pc). Much has been written today about potential successors to the Fine Gael Leadership. Among the general public, neither of the two leading candidates (Varadkar, 27pc, and Coveney, 23pc) are really capturing the imagination. 6

7 After the ugliest week in years, FF re-emerges as poster boy (Cont d) Among Fine Gael supporters, Varadkar opens up a gap (37pc vs 28pc), but this not as significant as he may well like. Intriguingly, among the party faithful, over one in five (22pc) would prefer neither, or somebody else. This may well lead to a third party entering the race. Things may not be as clear-cut as they may seem. Whilst all these headline results are striking, there are some other, more subtle shifts illuminated in today s poll. The appetite for Independents/other parties has collapsed since the General Election. Collective they muster 16pc of the vote (Greens included). Contrast this with the 30pc they claimed last ruary. It may be that the promise of new politics may have been a bridge to far, and the public have noticed. To reinforce this point, Kantar Millward Brown asks a Toxicity measure that is, which party would people not vote for. There have been notable increases in negativity towards all of the smaller parties. For some Independents/smaller parties, they have flattered to deceive. For others, they have reneged on their positions. This has had the effect of increasing cynicism among many. It has ironically goaded voters back to the fold of the poster boy of all that was perceived to be wrong in Irish politics; Fianna Fail. This is reflected in the fact that there is disillusionment with politics in general as in the aftermath of the 2011 election, we were again assured that after last ruary, there would be a change in how politics is conducted in this country. The Public have rated Leinster House s performance in a more uncertain fashion. When asked if the past 12 months has been a good year for Irish politics, less than one in five (19pc) agree. 35pc feel it has been a bad year, with a further 37pc saying it was indifferent. Hardly a ringing endorsement for our Legislators or new politics in general. 7

8 After the ugliest week in years, FF re-emerges as poster boy (Cont d) Moving away from politics, there is one statistic that stands out dramatically. On any other week, it would potentially be headline news. We have tracked consumer sentiment for nearly thirty years. That is, do people believe they will be better off, worse off or about the same this time next year? The results this weekend are revealing. Over one in four (27pc) believe that they will be financially better off over the next twelve months, compared to just 14pc saying they will be worse off. Whilst the numbers may sound modest, this is the largest measure of positivity seen since the crash. In essence, there is a net positivity of +13 (better off minus worse off). Since the crash, the average sentiment was -23. Negativity has averaged at 39 since Given the uncertainty over Brexit, the impact of Trump and the instability bubbling just below the surface in Europe, this illustrates a remarkably upbeat population. However, there is a stark geographical and political message as well. Two in five Dubliners (where the Government receives its highest satisfaction rating) feel that the future is bright. A two tier society is as strong as ever, whereby the capital flourishes whilst the rest of the country feels left behind. 8

9 National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions

10 Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows General Election Result Opinion Poll ruary 2017 Including Don t Knows Opinion Poll ruary 2017 Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael 26 Fine Gael 20 Fine Gael 25 Labour 7 Labour 5 Labour 6 Fianna Fáil Green Party Independents/others Renua Ireland AAA-PBP Social Democrats Sinn Féin Fianna Fáil Green Party Sinn Féin Others Don t know Fianna Fáil Green Party Sinn Féin Others Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 10

11 Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Independents/Others: October ruary 2017 AAA-PBP 2 3 Social Democrats 1 2 Independent Candidates 6 4 Independent Alliance 5 5 June 20 th 28 th 2013 Aug 3 rd -12 th 2013 Aug 17 th -27 th 2013 Sep 13 th 25 th 2013 Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th th -28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th 2014 Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th -18 th 2014 Oct st 31 st 2014 Dec 8 th -18 th 2014 Jan 30th - 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd th -26 th June th-30 th July th Oct- 6 th Nov th Jan- 4 th General Election 18 th -30 th June 8 th -20 th Oct 6 th -16 th 2017 Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour Green Party Independents/ others* * Includes all other parties Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 11

12 Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Independents/Others: October ruary 2017 AAA-PBP 2 3 Social Democrats 1 2 Independent Candidates 6 4 Independent Alliance 5 5 Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party Independents/Others* Jun 20th- 28th Aug 3rd- 12th Aug 17th- 27th Sep 13th- 25th 2013 Sep 30th- Oct 9th 18 Nov 3rd- 13th Jan 15th- 24th th- Apr 5th-15th 24th Jul 18th- 30th 2014 Sep 9th- 18th 2014 Oct st- 31st Dec 8th- 18th Jan 29th- 9th Mar 24th- Apr 2nd th-26th Jun th-30th Jul th Oct-6th Nov th Jan - 4th General Election th-30th 8th-20th Oct June 6th-16th 2017 * Includes all other parties Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 12

13 Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference INDEPENDENTS OTHERS* *Includes all others (including Greens) Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 13

14 Satisfaction with the Government has slipped back in ruary. Just over one in four are happy with its performance Just over one in four are happy HIGHER AMONG DEs 70 Munster Residents 72 Conn/Ulster 69 Rural Dwellers 72 Fianna Fáil Supporters 76 Labour Supporters 70 Sinn Féin Supporters 88 Independents/Others 77 Dissatisfied (62) 27 Satisfied (31) 64 9 Don t know (8) HIGHER AMONG Males ABs 36 C2s 33 Dublin Residents 37 Urban Dwellers 32 Fine Gael Supporters 67 ( ) = October Results Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 14

15 Satisfaction with Government Over Time June 20 th 28 th 13 Aug 3 rd -12 th 13 Aug 17 th -27 th Results Sept 13 th -25 th 13 Sept 30 th -Oct 9 th 13 Nov 3 rd -13 th 13 Jan 15 th -24 th th 28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th Results Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th 18 th 2014 Oct st 31 st 2014 Dec 8 th 18 th 2014 Jan 30th 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd Results 19 th -26 th June th -30 th July th Oct- 6 th Nov th Jan- 4 th Results 18th-30th June 8 th 20 th Oct 2017 Results 6 th -15 th 2017 Dissatisfied Satisfied Don t know

16 Satisfaction with Party Leaders Enda Kenny Joan Burton Brendan Howlin Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Oct 14 Dec 14 Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct Oct 14 Dec 14 Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct Oct 14 Dec 14 Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct Oct 14 Dec 14 Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct Satisfied Dissatisfied Don t know (8) (10) (12) (7) (9) (9) (9) (11) (11) (12) (11) (17) (16) (16) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (30) (27) (26) (17) (20) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (18) (18) (16) (17) (20) () (12) (18) (19) (18) () (18) (19) (16) Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? 16

17 Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny HIGHER AMONG DEs 67 Munster Residents 67 Rural Dwellers 69 Fianna Fáil Supporters 77 Labour Supporters 73 Sinn Féin Supporters 88 Independents/Others 77 Dissatisfied (59) 27 Satisfied (29) Don t know (12) HIGHER AMONG ABs 39 Dublin Residents 38 Urban Dwellers 32 Fine Gael Supporters 73 ( ) = October Results Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? 17

18 Satisfaction with Brendan Howlin HIGHER AMONG Males Farming Community 52 Leinster Residents 54 Fianna Fáil Supporters 54 Sinn Féin Supporters 69 Independents/Others 53 Dissatisfied (47) 48 Satisfied 26 (25) 26 Don t know (27) HIGHER AMONG ABs 34 Farming Community 30 Dublin Residents 34 Conn/Ulster Supporters 34 Fianna Fáil Supporters 30 Fine Gael Supporters 41 Labour Supporters 65 ( ) = October Results Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? 18

19 Satisfaction with Michéal Martin HIGHER AMONG Conn/Ulster Residents 44 Labour Supporters 63 Sinn Féin Supporters 62 Independents/Others 56 Dissatisfied (40) Satisfied (43) 16 HIGHER AMONG Males Farming Community 50 Munster Residents 48 Fianna Fáil Supporters 84 ( ) = October Results Don t know (18) Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? 19

20 Satisfaction with Gerry Adams HIGHER AMONG Females ABs 68 Farming Community 71 Conn/Ulster Residents 63 Fianna Fáil Supporters 66 Fine Gael Supporters 67 Labour Supporters 71 Independents/Others 67 Dissatisfied (51) Satisfied 30 (29) Don t know (19) HIGHER AMONG Males C2DEs 34 Dublin Residents 41 Sinn Féin Supporters 74 ( ) = October Results Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? 20

21 Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other Party Supporters* Enda Kenny Brendan Howlin Satisfied Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Enda Kenny Brendan Howlin Dissatisfied Michéal Martin * Includes all other parties Gerry Adams Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

22 Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil remain the least toxic of the main parties, although Labour also shows signs of improvement WOULD NOT CONSIDER June Oct Fine Gael (34) (35) (32) Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other party Supporters* Labour (31) (28) (22) Fianna Fáil (24) (25) () Sinn Féin (37) (40) (38) Socialist Party (19) (16) (17) AAA-People Before Profit (16) (17) (18) * Includes all other parties Green Party (n/a) (18) (17) Social Democrats (9) (8) (10) ()=previous results Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election? 22

23 Despite the week just gone, the proportion of the population wanting Enda Kenny to resign remains relatively unchanged. REMAIN HIGHER AMONG Should remain It depends Should resign Don t know June 16 Should Kenny Resign? Oct Males ABs 29 Farming Community 34 Dublin Residents 35 Fine Gael Supporters 57 Labour Supporters 34 RESIGN HIGHER AMONG DEs 58 Munster Residents 63 Fianna Fáil Supporters 68 Sinn Fein Supporters 71 Independents/Others 66 Q. Do you think that Enda Kenny should remain as leader of Fine Gael, or should he resign? 23

Potential New Fine Gael Leader: Leo Varadkar holds a slight lead over Simon Coveney among the General Public, but is more strongly favoured among Fine Gael Supporters Simon Coveney 23 27 Leo Varadkar

24 Potential New Fine Gael Leader: Leo Varadkar holds a slight lead over Simon Coveney among the General Public, but is more strongly favoured among Fine Gael Supporters Simon Coveney Leo Varadkar Among those who think Enda Kenny should Among FG Supporters: Resign Remain Somebody else Leo Varadkar Simon Coveney None of them Somebody else Don t know Neither Don t know Q. If Enda Kenny were to resign as Leader of Fine Gael, who would you like to see replace him 24

25 How has the Political Year been? One year on from the General Election, just one in five rate the past 12 months Positively. For most, It's been indifferent at best. HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Females A bad year A good year ABs 29 C2s Dublin Residents 38 DEs 43 Farming Community 46 9 Don t know Fine Gael Supporters 34 Independents/Others 24 Conn/Ulster Residents 46 Sinn Féin Supporters 49 Fianna Fáil Supporters Indifferent Q. It is nearly a year since the last general election. Do you think that, on balance, it has been a good, bad or indifferent year for Irish Politics? 25

26 Additional Issues for publication: Our financial outlook

27 Our Personal Financial Situation: We have become much more Optimistic about the year ahead ruary Compared to last year ruary 2018 This time next year? Better off (16) 23 Better off (20) 27 Same (52) 54 Same (49) 49 ( ) = October Results Worse off (30) Don t know (2) Net difference (-14) Worse off (23) 14 Don t know 9 2 (8) (+2) Net difference (-3) (+13) *= Better off minus worse off Q. Taking everything into consideration would you say you are personally better off, worse off or in the same situation as you were THIS TIME LAST YEAR? Q. This time NEXT YEAR, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now? 27

28 Historical Picture: Personal Situation Compared To This Time Last Year. Trended over time Compared To Last Year Better Off Same Worse Off Pre Celtic Tiger '92 Mid Celtic Tiger '97 Post 9/11 '02 Sep '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Sep '09 Mar '10 Sep '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sep '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 Oct/Nov '15 '16 Jun '16 Oct '16 '17 NET DIFFERENCE Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now? 28

29 Historical Picture: Personal Situation This Time Next Year. Trended over time THIS TIME NEXT YEAR? Better off Same Worse off Pre 91 Celtic Tiger ' Mid 96 Celtic Tiger ' Post 9/11 '02 Sept '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Set '09 Mar '10Sept '10 Jan '11 Mar '11Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Dec'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Dec '13 Jul '14 Dec '14July '15Oct/Nov '15 '16 Jun '16 Oct '16 '17 NET DIFFERENCE Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now? 29

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National Opinion Poll: June for Publication on 3 rd July 2016

National Opinion Poll: June for Publication on 3 rd July 2016 1. National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - for Publication on 3 rd July 2016 Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 3 rd July