Dublin Bay South. Dublin Bay South Constituency Opinion Poll: February for Publication on 17 th February 2016

Transcription

1 Dublin Bay South Dublin Bay South Constituency Opinion Poll: February for Publication on 17 th February /Paul 1. Moran

2 Dublin Bay South Dublin Bay South Constituency 2.

3 Introduction A Constituency Poll was conducted in Dublin Bay South on behalf of The Irish Independent to be published on 17 th February Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile in the constituency. Interviewing was conducted at 46 sampling points in Dublin Bay South. 498 Interviews were carried out between 12 th 16 th February 2016 The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

4 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of voters representative of the Dublin Bay South electoral area - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in the home at 46 sampling points. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/ POLL Interviewing on the poll was carried out between 12 th and 16 th February 2016 The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Irish Independent. Millward Brown & The Irish Independent

5 Dublin Bay South The Results 5.

6 Dublin Bay South has the capacity to throw up surprises Conducted between last Friday and Tuesday of this week, this latest Millward Brown constituency poll, focusing on the re-drawn region known as Dublin Bay South, offers confirmation of some assumptions, but also throws up some intriguing propositions. In the previous election in 2011, Dublin South East was a stronghold of the Government parties, with the constituency being divided up by Fine Gael and Labour. Of course, times have changed. Ruairi Quinn is not contesting this election, leaving the remaining Labour vote to his party colleague, Kevin Humphreys. All eyes however, are on Lucinda Creighton s battle against her former colleagues in Fine Gael. But there are other skirmishes at play. Talking a step back, there are several high profile candidates in this field. Eamon Ryan, leader of the Green Party and Jim O Callaghan (FF) will be looking to restore some pride to their respective parties, if not more. Looking at the headline results, Eoghan Murphy, as expected, seems certain to retain his seat in this prosperous constituency. When Undecideds are excluded, he reaches the quota of 20pc. His running mate, Kate O Connell gains the nod from one in ten, giving the Senior Government party one-and-a-half quotas from the outset. Arguably the dark horse in this race is Sinn Fein s Chris Andrews (formally of the Fianna Fáil parish). Sinn Fein had been targeting this area as a potential gain for the party, and his first preference vote of 17pc is impressive. Andrews was the poll-topper in the Local Elections of 2014, and it seems that his momentum is continuing. There has always been the potential for a more left-wing seat in this constituency, with a large inner-city vote. On the basis of these results, it is possible that Andrews could deliver. Andrews will need to ensure that he maximises his first preference vote he is less transfer friendly than others, with his party being the most toxic in this constituency (60pc overall stating they would not vote for Sinn Fein). Any slip in his first preference could damage him disproportionately. 6.

7 Dublin Bay South has the capacity, as always, to throw up surprises (Cont d) Notwithstanding this, that is arguably two of the four seats accounted for. So what of the other contenders? Kevin Humphreys is polling relatively well at this stage. He gains 13pc of the first preference vote, and should be in the mix at the business end of the count. That said, Labour are a far cry from the 25pc first preferences that they received in Lucinda Creighton topped the poll five years ago with 19pc of the vote. Walking away from Fine Gael was always going to be a risky strategy. There is a finite number of voters who will vote for Fine Gael; Lucinda s issue was always going to be how many could she carry with her when she defected to set up Renua Ireland. In addition, this is one of the most liberal constituencies in the country. Lucinda s stance over the Protection of Life during Pregnancy bill, whilst laudable on its principles, may not resonate with all who previously voted for her (regardless of the 46pc overall who feel she did the right thing in resigning the party). On the basis of these results, she will be in a dogfight for one of the last two seats. Whilst she attracts a similar proportion of first preference votes to Humphreys, what may go against Creighton is her ability to attract second preference votes. She gains just 6pc of them, compared to Humphreys 15pc. This should be enough to get him over the line. If these results are to be replicated on 26 th, it may well be a straightforward shoot-out between Creighton, Jim O Callaghan and Kate O Connell for the final seat. It is instructive to note that the pattern of transfers from FG to Renua is low yet those voting for Renua are more likely to consider FG within their voting repertoire. Eamon Ryan will be somewhat disappointed by these results. The European Elections signalled a potential resurgence in his fortunes. But that was in a larger constituency, and with voters having somewhat different motivations for choosing their candidate. He will need to focus intensely over the next week or so if he is to put himself back into contention. 7.

8 Dublin Bay South has the capacity, as always, to throw up surprises (Cont d) However, for all of these candidates lagging behind, they can take some solace from this poll. It is noticeable that one in seven (15pc) are still undecided on how they will vote. In a constituency of such tight margins, this could make all the difference. The next week should see the ante being upped considerably, and those voters yet to be convinced in Dublin Bay South may have the potential to become kingmakers. 8.

9 Dublin Bay South Constituency - First preference (incl/excl Undecideds) (FG) Eoghan Murphy (SF) Chris Andrews (Ren) Lucinda Creighton (Lab) Kevin Humphreys (FF) Jim O Callaghan (FG) Kate O Connell (GP) Eamon Ryan (AAA/PbP) Annette Mooney (Ind) Mannix Flynn (SD) Glenna Lynch (Ind) William DJ Gorman (Ind) John Dominic Keigher (Ind) Alan MacStiofain (Ind) Eoin Tierney First Preference Voting Intentions incl. don t knows Don't know * * 15 Quota is 20 (FG) Eoghan Murphy (SF) Chris Andrews (Ren) Lucinda Creighton (Lab) Kevin Humphreys (FF) Jim O Callaghan (FG) Kate O Connell (GP) Eamon Ryan (AAA/PbP) Annette Mooney (Ind) Mannix Flynn (SD) Glenna Lynch (Ind) William DJ Gorman (Ind) John Dominic Keigher (Ind) Alan MacStiofain (Ind) Eoin Tierney First Preference Voting Intentions Excl. don t knows (n=422)

10 First Preference Party Support Dublin Bay South Constituency (incl/excl Undecideds) Fine Gael Fianna Fáil AAA/PbP Including Don t Knows Don t know th 16th February Incl. DK 11 Renua Ireland Independents Social Democrats The Green Party Labour Sinn Féin Fine Gael Fianna Fáil AAA/PbP Excluding Don t Knows (n=422) Independents The Green Party th 16th February Excl. DK 13 Renua Ireland Social Democrats Labour Sinn Féin 10.

11 Dublin Bay South Constituency- Where does the second preference go? Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote Second Preference Voting Intentions incl. don t knows (n=424) (FG) Kate O Connell 15 (FG) Eoghan Murphy (Lab) Kevin Humphreys (FF) Jim O Callaghan (GP) Eamon Ryan (SF) Chris Andrews (Ren) Lucinda Creighton (Ind) Mannix Flynn (SD) Glenna Lynch (AAA/PbP) Annette Mooney (Ind) Alan MacStiofain (Ind) John Dominic Keigher (Ind) Eoin Tierney (Ind) William DJ Gorman Don't know * Second Preference Voting Intentions Excl. don t knows (n=330) (FG) Kate O Connell 19 (FG) Eoghan Murphy (Lab) Kevin Humphreys (FF) Jim O Callaghan (GP) Eamon Ryan (SF) Chris Andrews (Ren) Lucinda Creighton (Ind) Mannix Flynn (SD) Glenna Lynch (AAA/PbP) Annette Mooney (Ind) William DJ Gorman (Ind) John Dominic Keigher (Ind) Alan MacStiofain (Ind) Eoin Tierney *

12 Second Preference Party Support Dublin Bay South Constituency Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote Fine Gael Fianna Fáil 28 8 AAA/PbP Including Don t Knows (n=424) th 16th February Incl. DK Renua Ireland Don t know Sinn Féin Social Democrats Independents The Green Party Labour Fine Gael Fianna Fáil AAA/PbP Excluding Don t Knows (n=330) th 16th February Excl. DK Renua Ireland 6 Independents Sinn Féin Social Democrats The Green Party Labour 12.

13 First Preference vote X Demographics Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote GENDER AGE SOCIAL CLASS Male Female < ABC1 C2DE Fine Gael Sinn Féin Labour Fianna Fáil Renua Ireland Green Party Independents AAA/PbP Social Democrats

14 Where do those giving a first preference allocate their second preference? Base: All who would give a First Preference and Second Preference Vote Second Preference Fine Gael Sinn Féin FIRST PREFERENCE Labour Renua Ireland Fianna Fáil* Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Independents Green Party Sinn Féin Social Democrats Renua Ireland AAA/PbP * Caution should be exercised as base sizes are low (below 50)

15 Over two in five are satisfied with the Government s performance, ahead of the national average Two in Five in Dublin Bay South are happy with the current performance HIGHER AMONG DEs 69 of FF 69 of SF 90 Dissatisfied 41 (62) Satisfied (29) HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 53 of FG 71 of Labour Don t know (9) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 15. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

16 Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny HIGHER AMONG Age C2DEs 70 of SF 93 of FF 73 Dissatisfied (62) Satisfied (27) Don t know (11) HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 51 of FG 68 of Labour 60 ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

17 Satisfaction with Joan Burton HIGHER AMONG Age DEs 72 of FF 67 of SF 90 Dissatisfied (62) Satisfied (22) HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 45 of FG 52 of Labour 65 7 Don t know (16) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

18 Satisfaction with Michéal Martin HIGHER AMONG Age DEs 50 of SF 68 of Labour 49 Dissatisfied (48) Satisfied (27) HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 45 of FF 77 of Renua Ireland Don t know (25) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

19 Satisfaction with Gerry Adams HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 83 of FG 84 of Labour 73 Dissatisfied (55) Satisfied (27) C2DEs 36 of SF 79 of Renua Ireland Don t know (18) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 19. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

20 Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 44 Dissatisfied (42) Satisfied (16) HIGHER AMONG Age of Renua Ireland 94 of FF 44 of SF 50 of Labour Don t know (43) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 20. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

21 Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support SATISFIED Total Enda Kenny (27) Joan Burton (22) Michéal Martin (27) Gerry Adams (27) Lucinda Creighton (16) DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny (62) Joan Burton (62) Michéal Martin (48) Gerry Adams (51) Lucinda Creighton (42) Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland? ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)

22 Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Sinn Féin are by far the most toxic party in Dublin Bay South WOULD NOT CONSIDER Fine Gael (34) Total Labour (31) Fianna Fáil (24) Sinn Féin (37) Renua Ireland (12) AAA-People Before Profit (16) Social Democrats (9) Green Party (19) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 22. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

23 How certain are voters in their convictions? Most party supporters are comfortable in their decision Base: All Dublin Bay South Voters Fine Gael (126) Fianna Fáil (48) Labour (55) Sinn Fein (72) Renua Ireland (52) Absolutely certain Pretty certain Some reservations Not at all certain Don t know Net Score (Any confident minus Any doubters) Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming General Election?

24 Health services is the number one issue for a quarter in Dublin Bay South, with economic issues also to the fore 1 st Mention Health Services/Hospitals (37) Management of the economy (11) The homeless situation/lack of Local Authority Housing (9) Crime/Law and Order (10) Unemployment/jobs (13) Water Charges (5) Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/cost of Rent (7) Childcare (3) Abortion (1) Something else (1) Issues within my own constituency (1) Don't know (2) * ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) * Includes all other parties 24. Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

25 When other issues of importance are added to the mix, health remains paramount, but other issues become more prominent 1 st Mention 2 nd Mention 3 rd Mention Any Mention Health Services/Hospitals The homeless situation/lack of Local Authority Housing Management of the economy Crime/Law and Order Unemployment/jobs Water Charges Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/cost of Rent Childcare Abortion Something else Issues within my own constituency Don't know * Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

26 Fine Gael is the party most trusted to manage the economy, particularly amongst its own supporters Trust Most Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Trust Most x Party Support Labour Sinn Fein Renua Ireland (126) (48) (55) (72) (52) Fine Gael (24) Fianna Fáil (17) Labour (3) Sinn Fein (13) Somebody else (7) None of them (16) Don t know (19) Q. Which one of the following parties do you trust most to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

27 A majority trust Sinn Féin least to manage public finances Trust Least Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Trust Least x Party Support Labour Sinn Fein Renua Ireland (126) (48) (55) (72) (52) Fine Gael (24) Fianna Fáil (17) Labour (3) Sinn Fein (13) Somebody else (7) None of them (16) Don t know (19) Q. Which one of the following parties do you trust least to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

28 Lucinda Creighton is the most polarising of the outgoing TDs in Dublin Bay South Most Effective TD in Dublin Bay South Least Effective TD in Dublin Bay South Lucinda Creighton 20 Lucinda Creighton 16 Kevin Humphreys 14 Kevin Humphreys 12 Eoghan Murphy 14 Ruairi Quinn 11 Ruairi Quinn 14 Eoghan Murphy 5 None of them 17 None of them 28 Don't know 21 Don't know Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been most effective in your constituency? Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been least effective (in the Dail/in your area)?

29 Most effective TD x Party Support Most Effective TD in Dublin Bay South Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Labour Sinn Fein Renua Ireland Lucinda Creighton Kevin Humphreys Eoghan Murphy Ruairi Quinn None of them Don't know Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been most effective in your constituency?

30 Least effective TD x Party Support Least Effective TD in Dublin Bay South Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Labour Sinn Fein Renua Ireland Lucinda Creighton Kevin Humphreys Ruairi Quinn Eoghan Murphy None of them Don't know Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been least effective (in the Dail/in your area)?

31 Was Lucinda Creighton correct to leave Fine Gael or not? Nearly half believe she was HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 47 of FG 54 No Yes HIGHER AMONG Age of Renua Ireland DEs of Labour 33 of SF 61 of FF Don t know 31. Q. Do you believe that Lucinda Creighton was correct or not to leave Fine Gael and form her own party?

32 A sizeable minority (37) believe that TDs pay is just about right HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG C2DEs 80 Age of FF 67 ABs 55 of SF About right of Labour 51 of Renua Ireland 40 Too much It depends Don t know Too little 32. Q. In your opinion, do you think TDs are paid too much, too little, or about the right amount?

33 Two thirds believe gender quotas are a good idea and there s a strong desire for a directly elected Lord Mayor Gender Quotas are a good idea There should be a formal dress code in the Dail Dublin should have a Lord Mayor directly elected Having a bar in the Dail is inappropriate Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don t know It depends * * Q. Finally, I am going to read out a list of statements that have been made about politics in Ireland. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements.

34 Dublin Bay South For more information, please contact: Paul Moran Millbank House Arkle Road Sandyford Dublin 18 t (1) /Paul 34. Moran