Dublin West. Dublin West Constituency Opinion Poll: February for Publication on 10 th February 2016

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1 Dublin West Dublin West Constituency Opinion Poll: February for Publication on 10 th February /Paul 1. Moran

2 Dublin West Dublin West Constituency 2.

Introduction A Constituency Poll was conducted in Dublin West on behalf of The Herald to be published on 10 th February 2016.

3 Introduction A Constituency Poll was conducted in Dublin West on behalf of The Herald to be published on 10 th February Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile in the constituency. Interviewing was conducted at 46 sampling points in Dublin West. 520 Interviews were carried out between 5 th 8 th February 2016 Data was weighted to reflect the Dublin West population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

4 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of voters representative of the Dublin West electoral area - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in the home at 46 sampling points. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/ POLL Interviewing on the poll was carried out between 5 th and 8 th February 2016 The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Herald. Millward Brown & The Herald

5 Dublin West The Results 5.

6 Tanáiste is on unsteady ground in her own backyard This Millward Brown Dublin West Poll, conducted between last Friday and Monday of this week, examines a constituency that is atypical for a couple of reasons. It was the only Dublin constituency to return a Fianna Fail candidate in the last election (the late Brian Lenihan). It also has the distinction of having two by-elections over the course of the 31 st Dail. In addition, it has high-profile candidates, including the Tanaiste and Minister for Health. The results point to a constituency where the final outcome is still on a knife edge. We are, of course, over two weeks from election day, and as such, there is the potential to change. However, at this early juncture of the campaign, there are some assumptions that we can safely make. The headline result is that the Tanaiste, Joan Burton, is by no means guaranteed her seat. In terms of first preference support, she gains just 10pc of the vote, and on the basis of these results, may have a very long day of counting to look forward to on 27 th February. Transfers and voting pacts will be key. As expected, Leo Varadkar looks certain to retain his seat comfortably. When undecideds are excluded, the current Minister for Health receives 20pc support, thus reaching the quota required. His party running mate, Senator Catherine Noone, trails him significantly (2pc first preference). This constituency has a strong left wing vote, and this is reflected on the first preference patterns. Sinn Fein has targeted this constituency as one for a potential gain, and Paul Donnelly looks assured to deliver. He too stands on 20pc, and should be elected comfortably. So that s two seats taken care of. It is then that things become interesting. A relative dark horse, Jack Chambers (Fianna Fail) is polling strongly at 17pc, with Ruth Coppinger (AAA/PbP) also returning a sizeable haul (15pc). On the face of it, this spells problems for Joan Burton. The gap between Burton and Chambers/Coppinger, whilst not insurmountable, is noteworthy. Ex-Fianna Fail candidate (and now of the Independent Alliance), David McGuinness is polling respectably at nine percent. 6.

7 Tanáiste is on unsteady ground in her own backyard (Cont d) The ability of these three candidates to attract transfers may make all the difference. To a certain extent, Chambers Achilles Heel will be that he is not as transfer friendly as others (inter-party transfers among the two government parties are strong, and as the only remaining establishment party, Chambers and FF may suffer he attracts just eight percent of second preferences). The key for him will be to maximise first preferences. Ruth Coppinger receives 12pc, largely from SF, and this could be enough to see her home. Minister Burton attracts 15pc of transfers, and depending upon vote management between FG and Labour, should make up some lost ground. However, McGuinness is also just as transfer friendly, and could be in the mix at the business end of the count. The Left Right split is most apparent when voters are asked which parties they would not consider voting for; Antagonism between Government parties and SF/AAA/PbP and visa-versa is as acute as ever. Interestingly, negatively towards Fianna Fail from both these blocs of voters is somewhat more diluted. If this is the case, Fianna Fail could pick up some additional votes as the count progresses. In essence, this constituency has the capacity to throw up surprises when we reach the final seat. If the tide doesn t begin to come back in for Labour over the next couple of weeks of this campaign, then there is potential for Dublin West to be emblematic of that Party s fortunes in the 31 st Dail. 7.

8 Dublin West Constituency - First preference (incl/excl Undecideds) Base: All Dublin West Voters (520) Quota is 20 (FG) Leo Varadkar First Preference Voting Intentions incl. don t knows 17 (FG) Leo Varadkar First Preference Voting Intentions Excl. don t knows 20 (SF) Paul Donnelly 17 (SF) Paul Donnelly 20 (FF) Jack Chambers 15 (FF) Jack Chambers 17 (AAA/PbP) Ruth Coppinger (Lab) Joan Burton (Ind) David McGuinness (Ind) Geoff Boyle (FG) Catherine Noone (Ind) TJ Clare (AAA/PbP) Ruth Coppinger (Lab) Joan Burton (Ind) David McGuinness (Ind) Geoff Boyle (FG) Catherine Noone (Ind) Lorna Nolan 1 (Ind) TJ Clare 2 (GP) Roderic O' Gorman 1 (GP) Roderic O' Gorman 2 Don't know 14 (Ind) Lorna Nolan 1 8.

9 First Preference Party Support Dublin West Constituency (incl/excl Undecideds) Base: All Dublin West Voters (520) Including Don t Knows Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael Don t know th 8 th February Incl. DK Independents/ others The Green Party Labour Fine Gael th 8 th February Excl. DK Independents/ others 2 10 The Green Party Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin AAA/PbP AAA/PbP 9.

10 Dublin West Constituency- Where does the second preference go? Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote (FG) Leo Varadkar Second Preference Voting Intentions incl. don t knows 13 (FG) Leo Varadkar Second Preference Voting Intentions Excl. don t knows 16 (Lab) Joan Burton 12 (Lab) Joan Burton 15 (Ind) David McGuinness 12 (SF) Paul Donnelly 14 (SF) Paul Donnelly (AAA/PbP) Ruth Coppinger (FF) Jack Chambers (GP) Roderic O' Gorman (FG) Catherine Noone (Ind) Geoff Boyle (Ind) David McGuinness (AAA/PbP) Ruth Coppinger (FF) Jack Chambers (GP) Roderic O' Gorman (FG) Catherine Noone (Ind) Lorna Nolan 3 (Ind) Lorna Nolan 4 (Ind) TJ Clare 2 (Ind) Geoff Boyle 3 Don' know 19 (Ind) TJ Clare 3 10.

11 Second Preference Party Support Dublin West Constituency Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote Don t know Fine Gael 17 Fianna Fáil 7 Including Don t Knows 19 5 th 8 th February Incl. DK 10 AAA/PbP Sinn Féin Independents/ others The Green Party Labour Fine Gael Fianna Fáil 21 8 Excluding Don t Knows Independents/ others 25 5 th 8 th February Excl. DK 12 AAA/PbP The Green Party Sinn Féin Labour 11.

12 First Preference vote X Demographics Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote Male GENDER AGE SOCIAL CLASS AREA Female < ABC1 C2DE East of West of M50 vs. M50 Fine Gael Sinn Féin Fianna Fáil AAA/PbP Independents/others Labour Green Party

13 Where do those giving a first preference allocate their second preference? Base: All who would give a First Preference and Second Preference Vote Second Preference Fine Gael Fianna Fáil FIRST PREFERENCE* Sinn Féin AAA/PbP Independents Independents/others Fine Gael Sinn Féin Labour AAA/PbP Fianna Fáil Green Party * Caution should be exercised as base sizes are low

14 Over three in ten are satisfied with the Government s performance, slightly higher than the National picture Base: All Dublin West Voters (520) One in three in Dublin West are happy with the current performance HIGHER AMONG Females 66 Age C2DEs 67 of Independent candidates 81 Residents West of M50 68 of AAA/PbP 92 of SF 84 Dissatisfied (62) 32 Satisfied (29) 61 7 Don t know (9) HIGHER AMONG Age Age ABs 48 of FG 68 Residents East of M50 49 ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 14. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

15 Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny Base: All Dublin West Voters (520) HIGHER AMONG Age C2DEs 73 of Independent candidates 84 Residents West of M50 71 of AAA/PbP 89 of SF 87 Dissatisfied (62) Satisfied (27) Don t know (11) HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 40 of FG 65 Residents East of M50 40 of Labour 59 ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 15. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

16 Satisfaction with Joan Burton Base: All Dublin West Voters (520) HIGHER AMONG Age of Independent candidates C2s Residents West of M50 68 of AAA/PbP 89 Dissatisfied (62) Satisfied (22) HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 32 of FG 55 Residents East of M50 44 of Labour 93 of SF Don t know (16) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

17 Satisfaction with Michéal Martin Base: All Dublin West Voters (520) HIGHER AMONG Age Satisfied (27) HIGHER AMONG Males 33 C2s 52 of AAA/PbP 60 of SF 60 Dissatisfied (48) 47 Age of FG 39 Residents East of M50 34 of FF Don t know (25) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

18 Satisfaction with Gerry Adams Base: All Dublin West Voters (520) 31 Satisfied (27) HIGHER AMONG Age DEs 42 HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 57 Residents East of M50 61 of FG 68 Dissatisfied (55) Don t know (18) of SF 77 of AAA/PbP 37 of FF 63 of Labour 62 ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

19 Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton Base: All Dublin West Voters (520) HIGHER AMONG Age of Labour 45 Dissatisfied (42) Satisfied (16) HIGHER AMONG Age of FG 29 of Independent candidates Don t know (43) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 19. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

20 Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support Base: All Dublin West Voters (520) SATISFIED Enda Kenny (27) Joan Burton (22) Michéal Martin (27) Gerry Adams (27) Lucinda Creighton (16) Total Independent/ Other Party * DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny (62) Joan Burton (62) Michéal Martin (48) Gerry Adams (51) Lucinda Creighton (42) Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland? * Includes all other parties ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)

21 Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil are the least toxic of the main parties Base: All Dublin West Voters (520) WOULD NOT CONSIDER Total Independent/ Other party * Fine Gael (34) Labour (31) Fianna Fáil (24) Sinn Féin (37) Socialist Party (19) AAA-People Before Profit (16) Green Party (19) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) * Includes all other parties 21. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

22 How certain are voters in their convictions? Independent Voters are more uncertain in their convictions, with Ruth Coppinger supporters least likely to be swayed Base: All Dublin West Voters Fine Gael (98) Fianna Fáil (77) Sinn Fein (92) Labour (48) AAA/PbP (66) Independents * (61) Absolutely certain Pretty certain Some reservations Not at all certain Don t know * Net Score (Any confident minus Any doubters) * Includes all other parties 22. Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming General Election?

23 Health services is the number one issue for three in ten Dublin West supporters, with economic issues also to the fore Base: All Dublin West 18+ (520) Total 1 st Mention Health Services/Hospitals (37) Management of the economy (11) The homeless situation/lack of Local Authority Housing (9) Unemployment/jobs (13) Water Charges (5) Crime/Law and Order (10) Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/cost of Rent (7) Childcare (3) Abortion (1) Something else (1) Issues within my own constituency (1) Don't know (2) * 30 ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) * Includes all other parties 23. Q What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

24 When other issues of importance are added to the mix, health remains on top, but housing issues become more prominent Base: All Dublin West 18+ (520) 1 st Mention 2 nd Mention 3 rd Mention Any Mention Health Services/Hospitals The homeless situation/lack of Local Authority Housing Management of the economy Crime/Law and Order Water Charges Unemployment/jobs Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/cost of Rent Childcare Abortion Something else Issues within my own constituency Don't know * * Q What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

25 Fine Gael is the party most trusted to manage the economy - over one in four adults in Dublin West believe this to be the case Base: All Dublin West 18+ (520) Trust Most Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Trust Most x Party Support Sinn Fein Labour AAA/PbP Independents * (98) (77) (92) (48) (66) (61) Fine Gael (24) Fianna Fáil (17) Sinn Fein (13) Labour (3) Somebody else (7) None of them (16) Don t know (19) * Includes all other parties 25. Q Which one of the following parties do you trust most to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

26 Over one third trust Sinn Féin least to manage public finances Base: All Dublin West 18+ (520) Trust Least Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Trust Least x Party Support Sinn Fein Labour AAA/PbP Independents * (98) (77) (92) (48) (66) (61) Fine Gael (17) Fianna Fáil (10) Sinn Fein (31) Labour (11) Somebody else (2) None of them (8) Don t know (21) * Includes all other parties 26. Q Which one of the following parties do you trust least to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

27 Leo Varadkar is considered to have been the most effective TD in Dublin West, with Joan Burton on the opposite end of the scale Base: All Dublin West 18+ (520) Most Effective TD in Dublin West Least Effective TD in Dublin West (FG) Leo Varadkar 30 (Lab) Joan Burton 42 (AAA/PbP) Ruth Coppinger 20 (SP) Joe Higgins 15 (AAA/PbP) Ruth Coppinger 27 (Lab) Joan Burton 14 (SP) Joe Higgins 16 None of them 10 Don't know 11 (FG) Leo Varadkar Q In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been most effective in your constituency? Q In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been least effective (in the Dail/in your area)?

28 Most effective TD x Party Support Base: All Dublin West 18+ (520) Most Effective TD in Dublin West Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Fein Labour AAA/PbP Independents * (FG) Leo Varadkar (AAA/PbP) Ruth Coppinger (SP) Joe Higgins (Lab) Joan Burton None of them Don t know Q In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been most effective in your constituency? 28.

29 Least effective TD x Party Support Base: All Dublin West 18+ (520) Least Effective TD in Dublin West Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Fein Labour AAA/PbP Independents * (Lab) Joan Burton (AAA/PbP) Ruth Coppinger (SP) Joe Higgins (FG) Leo Varadkar Q In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been least effective (in the Dail/in your area)?

30 Two in three believe TDs are paid too much, although a sizeable minority feel salaries are about right Base: All Dublin West 18+ (520) 65 Too much HIGHER AMONG Females 70 Age Age C2DEs 74 Too little Don t know It depends of Independent candidates 73 Residents West of M50 71 of AAA/PbP of SF 87 About right 30. In your opinion, do you think TDs are paid too much, too little, or about the right amount? (INTERVIEWER: Only if asked, explain that the basic salary of a TD is 87,000 euro)

31 Half agree that Gender quotas are a good idea. A majority feel there should be a dress code of the Dail and a directly elected Lord Mayor. Opinion is more nuanced on the presence of a bar in the Dail Base: All Dublin West 18+ (520) Gender Quotas are a good idea There should be a formal dress code in the Dail Dublin should have a Lord Mayor directly elected Having a bar in the Dail is inappropriate Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don t know It depends Q. Finally, I am going to read out a list of statements that have been made about politics in Ireland. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements.

32 Dublin West For more information, please contact: Paul Moran Millbank House Arkle Road Sandyford Dublin 18 t (1) /Paul 32. Moran

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