MARKED REGISTERS NOVEMBER 2003 PREPARED FOR: THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION

Transcription

1 MARKED REGISTERS NOVEMBER 2003 PREPARED FOR: THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION

2 REPORT PREPARED BY: Martin Boon Head of ICM government research 2

3 Table of contents Page 1. TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 3. METHODOLOGY 6 4. BACKGROUND TO THE SURVEY 8 5. MAIN REPORT Unprompted awareness electoral registration Unprompted awareness whether you turned out Unprompted awareness how you voted Prompted awareness marked registers Prompted awareness observable or purchasable registers Privacy issues vs. marked register availability issues Prompted core arguments Reasons why people support marked registers being made available Reasons why people oppose marked registers being made available When should marked registers be made available? Reasons for release before the deadline Reasons for release after the deadline Reasons for not releasing marked registers at all 20 3

4 2. Executive Summary Most people (84%) are aware that it is possible for others to find out whether or not they are registered to vote. Fewer, but still a sizable proportion (58%) are aware that it is possible for other people to find out whether or not they voted in a particular election, with a similar number (58%) knowing that it is NOT possible for others to find out how they voted in an election. However, that one in three (38%) do think it possible that their vote is discoverable maybe surprisingly high. There is widespread agreement that someone s vote is a private matter (88% net agreement). Only one in ten (9%) do not think that their vote should remain private. However, well over half (58%) would not mind if others could discover whether they voted so long as they could not discover how they voted. One in three (36%) do mind, with men more than women (40% vs 32%) inclined to think this way. One in three agree (37%) that it would help if political parties knew who voted in a previous election so that they can concentrate on persuading non-voters to go and vote, with half (50% of those years) of the youngest members of society agreeing. However, in total more than half (55%) disagreed with this, presumably objecting to the parties having any kind of information on individuals voting record. More people (50%) are inclined to think that a list of people who have voted should be made available simply to counter electoral fraud, but it remains the case that a large proportion is still opposed (41%) to the provision of any such list. When prompted with the exact way in which registers are marked, four in ten (38%) are aware of the process. Men (44%) are statistically significantly more aware than women (33%), and older people are more aware than younger (only 23% of year olds are aware). Six in ten (61%) do not know that electoral registers are marked in this way. Fewer people (24%) know that marked registers are available to anyone to look at or buy. Again men (28%) are more aware than women (21%) and older people are slightly more aware than younger. Three-quarters (75%) do not know that registers can be bought or looked at in this way. Two thirds (62%) are unconvinced by arguments that support the availability of marked registers, although 26% are actually in favour. However, the views of 4

5 18-24 s are markedly different to those of the rest of the population with a fairly even split with only 42% opposed and 40% in favour of marked registers being made available. Those people who are against the release of marked registers base their reasons on privacy (71%) or individual choice (71%) considerations. The potential introduction of postal voting with its associated prolongation of the period in which votes can be cast appears to confuse the picture somewhat. Overall, four in ten (42%) now think that marked registers should be made available to political parties AFTER the election, with another 15% saying they should be made available before the final deadline of casting a vote. This means that an aggregate 57% are effectively saying they are now in favour a complete turnaround from the previous question. Those who are against marked registers tend to be firmer in their view than those who are in favour of making them available before the deadline or indeed after the election. Many people who think that marked registers should be released before the deadline for casting a vote (in the advent of postal voting) provide no justification for their view. A small number think that some people who would not otherwise vote will be encouraged to do so. Reasons for releasing them after the election deadline are linked to harassment and manipulation issues. Privacy and not providing political parties access are the most frequently mentioned reasons for not releasing the marked registers at all. 5

6 3. Methodology ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1033 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 19 th -20 th November Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. It should be remembered at all times that a sample and not the entire population has been interviewed. Consequently, all results are subject to sampling tolerances, which mean that not all differences are statistically significant. We can, however, predict the variation between the sample results and the true values (if everyone in the population had been interviewed) from knowledge of the size of the samples on which the results are based and the number of times answers are given. The confidence with which we can make this prediction is usually chosen to be 95% - that is, the chances are 95 times out of 100 that the true value will fall within a specified range. The table below illustrates the predicted ranges for different sample sizes and the percentage results at the 95% confidence level. SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLING TOLERENCES APPLICABLE TO % S AT OR NEAR 10% OR 90%+ / - 30% OR 70% + / - 50% + / interviews 5.88% 8.98% 9.8% 250 interviews 3.72% 5.68% 6.2% 500 interviews 2.63% 4.02% 4.38% 1000 interviews 1.86% 2.84% 3.1% 1,100 interviews 1.77% 2.71% 2.95% For example, with a sample size of 1,100 interviews where 50% (the worst case scenario as far as tolerances are concerned) give a particular answer, we can be 95% certain that the true value will fall within the range of 2.95% from the sample result. When results are compared between separate groups within a sample (say, between men and women), different results may be obtained. The difference may be real or it may occur by chance (because a sample rather than the entire population has been interviewed). To test if the difference is a real one, i.e. if it is statistically significant, we again have to know the size of the samples, the % giving a certain answer and the degree of confidence chosen. If we assume the 95% confidence level again, the differences between the results of two separate groups must be greater than the values given in the table below: 6

7 SAMPLE SIZES TO BE COMPARED DIFFERENCES REQUIRED TO BE STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT AT OR NEAR 10% OR 90%+ / - 30% OR 70%+ / - 50% + / and % 12.7% 13.9% 200 and % 8.9% 9.8% 500 and % 5.7% 6.2% 1000 and % 4.0% 4.4% SOCIAL CLASS DEFINITIONS Most market research projects classify the population into social grades, usually on the basis of the Market Research Society occupational groupings (MRS, 1991). They are defined as follows: Professionals such as doctors, solicitors or dentists, chartered people like architects; fully qualified people with a large degree of responsibility such as A. senior civil servants, senior business executives and high ranking grades within the armed forces. Retired people, previously grade A, and their widows. People with very senior jobs such as university lecturers, heads of local B. government departments, middle management in business organisations, bank managers, police inspectors, and upper grades in the armed forces. All others doing non-manual jobs, including nurses, technicians, pharmacists, C1. salesmen, publicans, clerical workers, police sergeants and middle ranks of the armed forces. Skilled manual workers, foremen, manual workers with special qualifications C2. such as lorry drivers, security officers and lower grades of the armed forces. Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers, including labourers and those D. serving apprenticeships. Machine minders, farm labourers, lab assistants and postmen. Those on the lowest levels of subsistence including all those dependent upon E. the state long-term. Casual workers, and those without a regular income. In some parts of this report, net figures have been used. These are usually two different % s which have been aggregated for convenience, where it is appropriate to do so. For example, where 20% strongly agree and 15% tend to agree, the net becomes 35% who agree. In all the charts and tables that follow, percentages that do not add to 100% may be the result of computer rounding of raw numbers into percentage figures. * If the asterisk symbol is present in any chart or table that follows, it indicates that a particular answer was given by at least one respondent, but the aggregation of all such answers was insufficient for them to round up to 1%. 7

8 4. Background To The Survey Following on from its review of electoral registration, The Electoral Commission is currently in the process of reviewing the provision of marked registers to political parties. These registers show which registered electors have voted at a particular election, but not how they voted. In the past, these registers have been provided to political parties after an election and used by them to inform future campaign planning. As part of the review, ICM were commissioned to undertake some small scale quantitative research among a representative sample of the adult population across the UK. This document reports the results in full. 8

9 5. Main Report 5.1 Unprompted awareness issues Electoral registration The vast majority (84%) of the voting-age population know that a document exists that reveals whether or not an individual is registered to vote. That so many people know this is the case is perhaps understandable given the degree to which the electoral roll is used for commercial purposes nowadays. Many financial organisations, for example, view electoral registration as evidence of an individual s residential and financial stability key determinants in financial decision-making on mortgages, credit cards etc. These types of credit check have become a matter of public knowledge, and as such it comes as no surprise to see that the awareness figure for the availability of the electoral roll is so high. There are few substantive demographic variations to consider. More men (87%) than women (82%) know this is the case, and perhaps younger people (73% of s) who might be yet to make some of life s major financial commitments are not as aware that their electoral registration can be checked. ABC1 s (88%) are more aware than C2DE s (81%), as are those with an interest in politics compared to those with no interest (89% vs. 80% respectively). 5.2 Unprompted awareness issues Whether you turned out A majority (58%) of the voting public are also aware that a document is available that shows whether an individual has participated in any given election. One in three (35%) thinks that it is not possible for someone else to discover this information, and a further 7% don t know. Intriguingly, differential demographic patterns of response on the existence of these marked registers appear to be a direct reversal of those patterns identified on the existence of the electoral role. For example, women (60%) are slightly more likely than men (56%) to think it possible, as are C2DE s (59%) compared to ABC1 s (57%), members of black and minority ethic groups (63%) as opposed to the white community (57%), and those who are not interested in politics (59%) compared to those who are (57%). 5.3 Unprompted awareness issues how you voted It is impossible for a third party to find out how someone voted in a UK election, and a majority (58%) of the population know this to be true. However, it may come as a slight surprise to discover that as many as one in three (38%) thinks that it is possible to find out this kind of information. There are few age variations, with the exception of a higher incidence of mistaken views among those aged (38% think it is possible) however, the next youngest cohort of year olds contains the smallest number (30%) of mistaken views. 9

10 Other demographic variations are perhaps more logical. More C2DE s (42%) think it is possible compared to ABC1 s (35%), and members of black & minority ethnic communities are more likely to think so (55%) than white people (37%), perhaps on the basis that members of the ethnic communities are arguably less engaged with political structures and processes. People living in southern regions are also more likely (44%) to think so compared to those in other areas, as are those who are disinterested in politics (42%) compared to those who have some interest (35%). The chart below summarises the levels of awareness on each of these three measures: IS IT POSSIBLE FOR SOMEBODY ELSE TO FIND OUT ICM Research Electoral Commission November % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whether or not you are registered to vote Possible Impossible Don't know Whether or not you voted in a particular election Q8. Do you think it is possible or not possible for somebody else to find out each of the following? Base: All respondents (1,089) How you voted in a particular election 10

11 5.4 Prompted awareness Marked registers Over half (58%) think it is possible to find out whether or not someone has voted, but considerably fewer are aware of the marked register process. In fact, the proportion who know that registers are marked at polling stations falls to only 38%. A total of 61% admit that they do not know that registers are marked in this way at election time. The difference between the unprompted and the prompted measure is probably related to the depth of information provided within the question format. While many people might have a vague awareness that registers are taken, it is doubtful that they have even taken a moment to consider how they are taken or indeed why they are taken. Men (44%) are more likely to know than women (33%), as are the middle aged (47% of those 35-54) and ABC1 s (43%). Perhaps unsurprisingly, regular voters (48%) are more likely to be aware than irregular (35%) and the same applies to those with an interest in politics (46%) compared to those with none (30%). ICM Research Electoral Commission November 2003 AWARENESS LEVELS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Yes - aware No - not aware Don't know The electoral register is marked in this way at elections The electoral register is available to anyone to look at or buy Q10. As you may know, the electoral register is a list of individuals who are registered to vote. At an election, it is marked at each polling station to record whether someone has voted and to stop them voting twice. It does not show who someone actually voted for. After an election, copies of this marked register are currently made available to anyone to look at or buy. Before this interview, were you aware that.? Base: All respondents (1,089) 11

12 5.5 Prompted awareness Observable or purchasable marked registers A similar pattern emerges when we consider the availability of marked registers for people to look at or purchase. Far fewer people know that they are published in this way when they are prompted with the process. Overall, only one in four (24%) are aware that they are available to third parties in this way, with three-quarters (75%) having no idea that this is the case. Again, we may conclude that it is more the process of marking registers and publishing them that people are unaware of, rather than the simple fact that they exist. In terms of the demographics, once more men (28%) are more aware than women (21%), while the middle-aged (29%) and non-england resident populations also demonstrate higher awareness levels. Attitudes correlate more highly than demographics though, particularly in terms of interest in politics (27%) and regularity of voting (30%). One in three (34%) people who support the availability of marked registers know that it is available to look at or buy but only 20% of those who don t support their release know that this is the case. 5.6 Privacy issues versus marked register availability issues It has been established that well over half (58%) of the general public are aware that electoral registers are not only marked at election time but become available sometime after the event. Awareness, however, does not constitute acceptance. Indeed, almost nine in ten (88%) are in agreement that whether or not they vote should remain a private matter. Only 9% take the opposite view. Given such a high level of agreement we should not expect to find many demographic or attitudinal variations. Only when it comes to those people who support the availability of marked registers does the proportion (who agree that whether someone voted or not is a private matter) fall below the four in five mark (to 77%, in fact). However, opinion on the marked register issue softens considerably when placed in another context. As the chart overleaf shows, over half (58%) agree that they would not mind if someone else can find out whether or not they voted, so long as it is not discoverable HOW they voted. This reversal in opinion may well be the difference between theory (or principle) and realistic practice. It would seem that many people are resigned to the fact that while their decisions on whether to vote or not should remain private in an ideal world, they know that in practice there are probably a number of good reasons why this information should be made available. Women (62%) are more inclined to agree than men (54%), as are C2DE s (60%), those who don t work full time (61%) and Scottish/Welsh/NI residents (65%), although it is difficult to rationalise why this should be. Perhaps more understandable are attitudinal variations. In particular, of those people who agree that marked registers will help political parties concentrate their efforts on nonvoters, 72% also agree that they would not mind if their turnout behaviour were 12

13 made available this falls to only 50% among those who do not think marked registers would help political parties. Furthermore, of those who think marked registers will help check electoral fraud 67% do not mind their release. This falls to only 47% among those who don t think marked registers will make an impact on fraud. However, a majority (55%) are not persuaded that the availability of marked registers will help political parties by allowing them to focus solely on those who did not vote previously. As the chart below reveals, many of these (35%) actually disagree strongly while the remainder only tend to disagree (20%). Those who are more inclined to disagree tend to be interested in politics (57% disagreement), tend to be regular voters (58%) and certainly agree that turnout behaviour should remain private (57% vs. only 34% among those who don t think they should be kept private). They are also more likely to disagree (71%) if they don t think that marked registers can help check fraud. In terms of their demographic profile, they are more likely to be middle aged (62% 35-54), ABC1 (59%), work full time (59%), and live in the Midlands (60%). However, it is still the case that one in three (37%) believes that the availability of marked registers will help political parties. The very young (50% 18-24) and the very old (47% 65+) are most inclined to think this way, as are C2DE s (41%) and residents outside of England (41%). AGREEMENT WITH STATEMENTS ICM Research Electoral Commission November 2003 Agree strongly Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Disagree strongly Whether you vote at an election or not should always remain private I would not mind if someone else found out whether I voted, so long as they don't know how I voted It would be helpful if a list of people who have voted were made available so thatanyone can check for electoral fraud It would help if political parties knew who did vote at the last election, so that they can concentrate their efforts on persuading those who did not vote % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q9. I am going to read out statements some other people have made. Please tell me whether you agree strongly, tend to agree, neither agree nor disagree, tend to disagree or disagree strongly? Base: All respondents (1,033)

14 Finally, the public are rather split on the issue of electoral fraud and how marked registers can help deal with it. Overall, half (51%) agree that it would be helpful for a list of voters to be made available (which itself is split equally between those who agree strongly 26% and those who tend to agree (26%)). Slightly fewer (41%) disagree with this supposition, of whom twice as many (26%) disagree strongly as tend to disagree (15%). Those in agreement are more likely to be C2DE (56% vs 46% ABC1) and infrequent voters (57%). As we might have suspected, a higher proportion who agree can be found amongst those who don t think the registers should be kept private (75%) and those who do think it will assist political parties focus their efforts (69%). Overall, almost three quarters (71%) of those who support the availability of marked registers agree that their availability will check electoral fraud. 5.7 Prompted core arguments When people are provided with full and balanced perspectives on both sides of a debate, they can often make a more considered choice on their preferred outcome. For this reason, it was explained to survey participants that on one hand marked registers can help political parties plan their election campaigns and also help other parties check for electoral fraud; whilst on the other, the privacy issue is the key consideration in not making the registers available. This considered measure nets a rather strong level of opposition to the publication of marked registers, with almost two in three (62%) against. Of these, the majority (42%) strongly oppose while 20% tend to oppose. The profile of supporters is rather different, with more tending to support (15%) than supporting strongly (11%). % Support/oppose Net support 26% Net oppose 62% Strongly support 11% Tend to support 15% Neither support nor oppose 11% Tend to oppose 20% Strongly oppose 42% Don t know 1% Those people who oppose publication tend to be older rather than younger, with opposition rising from a base of 42% among those years of age to a high of 73% among those 65+. Clearly older people are much more committed to the privacy ideal than younger people, perhaps suggesting that the information age is loosening the ties between individual behaviour and the right of privacy. After all, 14

15 the youngest members of society will have grown up after an explosion in the ability of others to discover personal information even in terms of how much people spend and which streets they walk down (given the proliferation of CCTV). If all this is now taken for granted, why shouldn t it also be taken for granted whether or not someone has voted? 5.8 Reasons why people support marked registers being made available One in four (26%) support marked registers being made available, and they provide a number of reasons for saying so. Top of mind is a concern about electoral fraud, with one in six (16%) mentioning security concerns as a valid reason for making marked registers available. However, we must consider that previous questions did prompt with this particular issue, therein artificially raising awareness and concern. REASONS FOR SUPPORTING AVAILABILITY OF MARKED REGISTERS ICM Research Electoral Commission November 2003 Fraud/general misuse It is irrelevant Should be up to individual It is private Should all be made open Makes no difference to me OK if only shows whether voted 5 7 % Q12. Why do you say you support a marked register being made available to anyone to look at or buy after an election? Base: All who support availability (287) A similar number (16%) are completely indifferent to the process. They consider it to be irrelevant, probably believing that it makes no difference to their lives one way or the. There is little point in attempting to identify who these people are, as they are drawn from right across the demographic spectrum. Almost as many (15%) say that the release of marked register information should be up to each individual rather than a blanket release of the whole document, with those aged 65+ much more inclined than others to think this way. 15% also say it is private which sounds counter-intuitive and is difficult to rationalise within this 15

16 context. Sometimes open-ended questions where respondents are permitted to say anything do produce a few unusual responses, and it is possible that these people have confused their answers. Other responses include a generalisation that things should be made more open (11%) with a further set of indifferent people again saying that it doesn t make any difference to them (7%). 5.9 Reasons why people oppose marked registers being made available Many more people oppose (62%) marked registers than support them. They do so for two main reasons. Firstly, 71% think that whether or not you vote is a private decision and that should be the end of the matter, with older people (75% among those 65+) most likely to say this, along with those from ethnic communities (75%) and people in the Midlands (77%). ICM Research Electoral Commission November 2003 REASONS FOR OPPOSING AVAILABILITY OF MARKED REGISTERS It is private Should be up to individual Fraud/general misuse It is irrelevant Avoid targetting certain people Commercial use % Q12. Why do you say you oppose a marked register being made available to anyone to look at or buy after an election? Base: All who oppose availability (674) The other reason relates to individual choice (71%) the point being that this kind of information should be a private matter unless express permission has been given on an individual basis. Those who are most likely to mention this include people with an interest in politics (74%), those who usually or sometimes vote (75%), and those who think that marked registers would help the political parties (75%). A few more issues do arise, but they are only mentioned on a small number of occasions. They include fraud and general misuse reasons (8%), presumably from 16

17 the perspective that fraud can occur by making more people aware of the actions of others; and reasons related to complete disinterest, with 8% finding it irrelevant When should marked registers be made available? The possible introduction of all-postal voting in the future very much confuses the overall picture. When prompted with this electoral development, and the possible associated release of marked registers before the closure of polling stations, the proportion who think that registers should not be released at all falls considerably (to 37%). As the chart shows, more people now adopt a compromise position,with 42% in favour of their release only after the election, and 15% in favour of release before the final deadline for casting a vote. SHOULD MARKED REGISTERS BE MADE AVAILABLE.? ICM Research Electoral Commission November Firm opinion=3% Tend to agree =12% Before the final deadline for castinbg a vote 42 Firm opinion=21% Tend to agree=20% Only after the election Not at all Don't know Q13. Voters may be asked to vote by post in the future, rather than at polling stations. This would mean that people would have several days to vote, rather than just one. If so, marked registers might be available to political parties before the final deadline for voting. Do you think marked registers should be made available to political parties. Base: All respondents (1,089) 37 Firm opinion=22% Tend to agree=15% % 6 This means that an aggregate 52% think that marked registers should be released at some point, rather than not at all. This turnaround is possibly explained by people s acceptance that change could produce a worse scenario than at present i.e. that political parties get to see the marked register and then harass people into going and voting (for them). In this context, the release of marked registers after the deadline may not seem to be so much of a big deal. However, it would seem that many people s views on this matter are soft rather than well formed. For example, of those people (15%) who think that they should be released before the close of the polls, most (12%) only tend to favour this option. Similarly, of the 42% who think they should only be released after the election deadline, half (21%) hold a firm opinion and half (21%) only tend to 17

18 agree. As we might expect, those who still reject the release of marked registers (37%) are rather more categorical in their view, with more (22%) holding a firm opinion than tending to agree (15%). So who fits into each of these camps? The hardcore rejecters of marked register release are disproportionately drawn form the ranks of men (43%), the elderly (43% 55+), ABC1 S (41%), and regular voters (43%). They are also unconvinced that marked register release would help prevent fraudulent acts, as 52% of those who think this also oppose any kind of release of the registers. Those people who sit in the compromise position allowing registers to be released but only after the final deadline for casting a vote has passed are much more likely to be women (46%) than men (38%). They tend toward the younger age range and are more likely to be white (43%) than those from ethnic communities (38%). They are more interested in politics than not interested but not by much. That said, they tend to usually vote rather than always vote. However, some of their attitudinal responses do provide rationale for their position. They don t think that registers should be private documents (61%) and a high proportion (48%) would not mind if turnout information were released so long as their party preference remains concealed. Half (51%) of those who think the release of marked registers will help the political parties also think the registers should be released at this stage, as do half (48%) of those who think their release will help check electoral fraud. The final group (15%) have no objections to marked registers being released before the final deadline for casting a vote. They are drawn from the younger cohort ranks (22% 18-24) and from social classes C2DE (17%). They are rather more disinterested in politics (18%) than interested (12%) and are not the most reliable of voters (only 12% always vote). However, they are twice as likely to think that marked registers will help the parties (21%) as not help (11%), and also think in greater numbers that fraud will be checked (19%). Those people who support registers being made available in an all-postal scenario also tend to think that they should only be released to political parties after the closure of the polls (55%). Less than one in five (18%) think that the registers should be released before the polls have closed, but more (21%) actually think that they should NOT be given to political parties at all Reasons for release before the deadline Given the rather inconsistent demographic and attitudinal characteristics revealed in the previous paragraph, we might consider that it would be quite difficult to generalise about pro-early register release types overall motivations. Indeed, their rationale is somewhat vague, given that half (49%) of them do not know why they take this position. We should not underestimate the importance of this don t know the level is twice that among those who take the compromise position and those who are hardcore rejecters. 18

19 Some though, do provide a justification for the early release of marked registers. One in ten (13%) say that more people will be encouraged to vote, while others (9%) say it will be helpful in analysing who has and who hasn t voted. One in twenty (5%) say that it avoids electoral manipulation and a similar number (4%) think that publication of the fact that they have voted will prevent subsequent harassment Reasons for release after the deadline WHY SHOULD MARKED REGISTERS BE MADE AVAILABLE ONLY AFTER THE ELECTION? ICM Research Electoral Commission November 2003 To avoid harrasment before an election To avoid misuse/manipualtion Should be private Should not have access before final results To analyse who voted/didn't To make it fair % Q15. Why do you say that a marked register should be made available only after the election? Base: All who think should be available only after the election (459) However, those people (42%) who don t want marked registers released until after the election deadline has passed are much more likely to justify it on the basis harassment avoidance (25%). Presumably, they think that everyone would be better off if political parties were unable to identify those who have not voted, in the hope that the parties will not have the time or resources to canvass everybody whilst the election is taking place. Another important reason is the avoidance of marked register misuse, which is mentioned by one in five (20%). A further tenth (8%) think that registers should be kept private or quite simply should not be released before the result is announced. One in four (25%) could provide no particular explanation for why they adopt this position, while another 26% don t know. 19

20 5.13 Reasons for not releasing marked registers at all Four in ten (37%) say that marked registers should not be released at any time, and there are two main reasons for this. Firstly, one in three (36%) say that this kind of information should remain private. As we have seen on numerous occasions, older people tend to be the driving force behind this line of thinking. Secondly, a similar number (36%) think that political parties simply should not be entitled to this information. Fewer (18%) think that any kind of release would encourage harassment before a future election, whilst 15% think it would prevent any kind of misuse or manipulation. WHY SHOULD MARKED REGISTERS NOT BE MADE AVAILABLE? M Research Electoral Commission November 2003 IC Should be private Should not have access before final results To avoid harasssment before an election To avoid misuse/manipulation To make it fair Should concentrate on their agenda/policies No particular reason % Q15. Why do you say that a marked register should not be made available at all? Base: All who think should not be available at all (390) Once more, a considerable proportion (18%) could not provide any particular reason, or simply don t know (21%). 20

21 MARKED REGISTERS OMNIBUS SAMPLE + NI ONLY Q8 Do you think that it is possible or not possible for somebody else to find out each of the following? READ OUT 1 = Possible 2 = Not possible Whether or not you are registered to vote P = 84% NP = 11% DK = 4% Whether or not you voted in a particular election P = 58% NP = 35% DK = 7% How you voted in a particular election P = 38% NP = 58% DK = 4% Q9 I am going to read out statements some other people have made. Please tell me whether you agree strongly, tend to agree, neither agree nor disagree, tend to disagree or disagree strongly that..read OUT. ROTATE ORDER a) Whether you vote at an election or not should always remain private b) I would not mind if someone else could find out whether or not I have voted, so long as they don t know how I voted c) It would help if political parties knew who did vote at the last election, so that they can concentrate their efforts on persuading those who did not vote d) It would be helpful if a list of people who have voted were made available so that anyone can check for electoral fraud AS = 73% TA = 15% Neither = 2% TD = 6% DS = 3% AS = 29% TA = 29% Neither = 6% TD = 10% DS = 26% AS = 16% TA = 22% Neither = 6% TD = 20% DS = 35% AS = 26% TA = 26% Neither = 6% TD = 15% DS = 26% 21

22 Q10 As you may know, the electoral register is a list of individuals who are registered to vote. At an election, it is marked at each polling station to record whether someone has voted and to stop them voting twice. It does NOT show who someone actually voted for. After an election, copies of this marked register are currently made available to anyone to look at or buy. Before this interview, were you aware that READ OUT The electoral register is marked in this way at elections Y = 38% N = 61% DK = 1% The marked register is available to anyone to look at or buy Y = 24% N= 75% DK = 1% Q11 Some people have said that it is good that the marked register should be made available because this helps political parties when they plan their election campaigning and allows them and other people to check for electoral fraud. Others have argued that whether or not someone has voted should always remain private and should not be made available to anybody else. How strongly do you support or oppose a marked register being made available to anyone to look at or buy after an election? Is that strongly or tend to? Strongly support 11% Tend to support 15% Neither support nor oppose 11% Tend to oppose 20% Strongly oppose 42% Don t know 1% Q12 Why do you say you..q11.. a marked register being made available to anyone to look at or buy after an election? PROBE FULLY SUPPORT: (287) Fraud/general misuse = 16% It is irrelevant = 16% Should be up to the individual = 15% It is private = 15% Should all be made open = 11% Doesn t make any difference to me = 7% OK if only shows that you voted = 5% OPPOSE (674) It is private = 71% Should be up to the individual = 71% Fraud = 8% It is irrelevant = 8% Avoid targeting certain people = 6% Info could be used for commercial reasons = 4% 22

23 NEITHER SUPPORT NOR OPPOSE (115) Doesn t make any difference to me = 20% It is private = 14% Should be up to the individual = 14% Fraud = 6% It is irrelevant = 6% Ok if only shows that you voted = 3% Avoid targeting certain people = 4% Should not be available to everyone = 2% Q13 Voters may be asked to vote by post in the future, rather than at polling stations. This would mean that people would have several days to vote, rather than just one. If so, marked registers might be made available to political parties before the final deadline for voting. Do you think marked registers should be made available to political parties READ OUT. ROTATE ORDER Before the final deadline for casting a vote 15% Only after the election 42% Not at all 37% Don t know 6% Q14 You say that Q13 (except DK)..Is that your firm opinion or do you just tend to agree with it? BEFORE DEADLINE Firm opinion 20% Tend to agree 79% Don t know 1% AFTER ELECTION Firm opinion 50% Tend to agree 49% Don t know *% NOT AT ALL Firm opinion 59% Tend to agree 40% Don t know 1% Q15 Why do you say that a marked register should..q13..? PROBE FULLY BEFORE DEADLINE (161) Can encourage people to vote where they didn t = 13% To analyse who voted and who didn t = 9% To avoid misuse = 5% It would not make any difference = 5% To avoid harassment before election = 4% To make it fair = 3% 23

24 ONLY AFTER ELECTION (459) To avoid harassment before election = 25% To avoid misuse = 20% To analyse who voted and who didn t = 8% To make it fair = 8% Should be private = 7% They should not have access before final results = 7% It would not make any difference = 3% Can encourage people to vote = 2% Just my opinion 23% NOT AT ALL (407) Should be private = 36% They should not have access before final results = 36% To avoid harassment before election = 18% To avoid misuse = 15% To make it fair 4% Would not make any difference 2% Q16 How interested, if at all, would you say you are in politics? READ OUT AND ROTATE Very interested 9% Fairly interested 42% Not particularly interested 30% Not at all interested 19% Don t know *% Q17 How often do you vote in General Elections? Would you say you...read OUT Always vote 53% Usually vote 16% Sometimes vote 10% Rarely vote 8% Never vote 7% It depends 5% Don t know *% Q18 You say you have never voted at a General Election. Is that because at the last General Election you were too young to vote, you were not registered to vote or for some other reason? Too young to vote 5% Not registered to vote 6% Some other reason 88% Can t remember/don t know 2% 24

25 Q19. Finally, which of these best describes your ethnic or racial group? British 87% Irish 2% Other white background 3% White and black Caribbean 1% White and black African * White and Asian 1% Other mixed background *% Indian 1% Pakistani 1% Bangladeshi *% Other Asian background 1% Caribbean 1% African 1% Other black background *% Chinese *% Other background *% Other 4% Refused 1% 25