Ignorance, indifference and electoral apathy

Transcription

1 FIFTH FRAMEWORK RESEARCH PROGRAMME ( ) Democratic Participation and Political Communication in Systems of Multi-level Governance Ignorance, indifference and electoral apathy Multi-level electoral participation in Great Britain Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher University of Plymouth Presentation made at the Conference on European Public Opinion and the 2004 European Parliament Elections, Paul Henri Spaak Building, The European Parliament, Brussels, Belgium September 18, 2003

2 Compared with its EU partners Great Britain has consistently had one of the lowest rates of turnout at European elections. Turnout has never risen above 37% and at the last election it was just 23% - a twelve percentage point drop compared with five years before. There is, therefore, a history of low turnout and a recent trend towards declining turnout. << Figure 1, about here >> However, growing disinterest in voting in Britain is by no means restricted to European elections (see Figure 1). At the 1992 general election more than three in four electors participated but in 2001 turnout fell to a record low of just 59%. The 19- percentage point drop in less than a decade reveals an electorate disengaging from the electoral process. At other elections too there is further evidence of turnout decline. Throughout the 1980s turnout at local elections approximated 40%. During the 1990s, however, it has declined to around 30%. In some local authorities fewer than one in five electors now vote. In 1999 electors in Scotland and Wales were invited to vote for newly devolved institutions. In Scotland 58% turned out to vote, a figure that matched the level seen at the general election two years later. Interest in Wales was lower where less than half (46%) of those eligible voted. The second devolved elections were held in Turnout declined in both instances, falling to 49% in Scotland and to 38% for Wales a decline of between 8-9 percentage points. By contrast voting in Northern Ireland at EP elections remains high. On three out of five occasions a majority of electors have participated. In 1999 turnout was 57%, above the median figure for Europe as a whole. But other parts of the UK reveal a more consistent pattern of low turnout. A regional breakdown of turnout at the last EP election and the last two general elections is shown in figure 2. << Figure 2, about here >> 1

3 In 1999 the gap between the region with the highest vote (South West, 28%) and lowest (North West 20%) was eight percentage points. A similar range can be found at general elections where the gap between high and low turnout regions was seven percentage points in 1997 and a ten point range in Moreover, regions that tend to vote high or low in one type of election appear to do so in another. In short, there is no particular regional aspect to low turnout at European elections. Although the 1999 EP elections were the first to be held using Regional PR-List voting it has been possible to obtain data on turnout at the level of parliamentary constituencies. This allows comparisons of turnout across elections at a fairly small level of aggregation. The resulting scatterplot is shown in Figure 3 and shows a fairly homogenous pattern low turnout constituencies at parliamentary elections are likely to display the same behaviour at EP elections. << Figure 3, about here >> Using the ECOL procedure we can examine the movement of voters between elections. This approach may confirm that electors that abstain from voting at general elections are also not participating at European elections. It may also show differential turnout, with one party s supporters abstaining in greater numbers than its rivals. Table 1 shows the results of the ECOL analysis. << Table 1, about here >> More than nine in ten of those that abstained from voting at the 1997 general election also missed voting at the European elections held two years later. Amongst the three main parties the biggest desertion from the EP election affected those that had supported Labour at the general election with 83% of the 1997 Labour vote failing to turn out to vote. This contrasts with around a 60% drop for its rival parties, Conservative and Liberal Democrats. When the 1999 election is compared with the 2001 general election we find that 49% of those that abstained from the former also did not vote at the later election. The ECOL analysis also shows that one in four of those that abstained in 1999 returned to the Labour camp for the subsequent general election. 2

4 This analysis appears to support two particular conclusions. First, there is a large and growing section of the British electorate that is not engaging with the electoral process. Election campaigns, whether of a European or parliamentary type, do not make an impact on such individuals. Second, European elections often fall at the parliamentary mid-term offer opportunities for widespread protest voting against the governing party. Combining election returns with census and other types of data we also built models of voter turnout using multivariate analysis. Our models explain 83% of the variance in turnout at both parliamentary and EP elections. The findings showed that the more young people (18-24 years) resident in a constituency the lower the participation. The more residents employed in managerial and professional occupations the higher the turnout. Areas of relative deprivation exhibit lower rates of participation but those living in rural areas are more inclined to vote. A variety of survey data helps to shed light on some of the influences amongst the British electorate leading to widespread low turnout at EP elections. Eurobarometers 41 and 52 were conducted shortly after the 1994 and 1999 elections respectively. Eurobarometer 57 asked about intention to vote in An analysis of respondents attitudes to the 1999 EP elections shows that the more educated tended to vote in higher proportions than the less well educated. Increased age too made voters more likely to participate. Unsurprisingly, those respondents that discussed politics were more likely to have voted compared with those who never engaged in discussions of this type. The more that was known about the EU and the greater the demand for an enhanced role for the Parliament the more likely to turn out to vote. Respondents that recalled being canvassed during the campaign were more likely to have voted. We replicated this analysis using Eurobarometer 41 and obtained similar findings. Another survey, conducted in 18 countries during 2001, half of which were in Europe, provides an opportunity to understand not only the differences between voters and 3

5 non-voters but also those factors that lead some electors to vote at national elections but then to abstain from voting at sub or supra-national elections. Compared with non-voters, voters in Britain are likely to be older, interested in politics, identify with a political party, possess a sense of citizen duty and vote regardless of the decision of others to participate or not. But we know that even amongst voters there is a large gap between the proportions participating at a general election compared with other types of political contest. Younger age groups were more likely to restrict participation to the principal election as well as least qualified educationally. However, it proved difficult correctly to classify those that voted at general but abstained from local elections. Those respondents that voted at three types of election, parliamentary, local and European, could be identified apart from less diligent participants by their heightened interest in politics and also their relatively strong sense of community (spatial, religious or ethnic) identify. Finally, Eurobarometer 57 considered a range of issues, including intention to vote in Men more than women saw the EU in a positive light and males more than females are likely to be voting. Those with formal education beyond 18 years of age are more likely than others to retain a positive image of the EU. But trust in political institutions generally is low, with a majority not trusting a range of institutions including the EU. No less than three-quarters of this group could boycott the 2004 election. Moreover, only one third of British respondents admitted that they knew something about Europe, the lowest proportion of the 15 countries surveyed. Supplying more information in the expectation that more of the British electorate will vote is problematic. Even among the group of respondents that were prepared to increase their knowledge fully 59 percent were still unprepared to vote. Amongst different age groups it is those aged 55 years and over where almost half signal an intention to vote but the picture is worrying elsewhere. With less than a third of respondents in their forties or early fifties, only a quarter of those aged over 4

6 25, and less than one in five of the youngest age group intending to vote the 2004 election may continue the pattern of low participation. Intriguingly, the greater threat to electoral turnout is not hostility but indifference towards European institutions. According to Eurobarometer 57, roughly half of those with a positive image of the EU will vote whilst among those holding negative views there is a two to one chance of them abstaining. However, for those whose view of Europe is neutral, likely abstainers outnumber voters by three to one. << Table 2 & 3, about here >> However, there is one final piece of good news for The government has determined that the local elections, normally scheduled for early May, shall be postponed so that they coincide with the European elections. The coincidence of these elections will mean a higher profile in the national media, a more intense bout of electoral campaigning and an increase in electoral participation. 5

7 Figure 1, Voter turnout in Great Britain ( ) 6

8 Figure 2, Voter turnout by regions Figure 3, Comparison of general and European election(s) turnout in constituencies 7

9 Table 1, Who abstains from voting in EP elections? Con97 Lab97 LD97 Oth97 Abst97 Con Lab LD Oth Abst Table 2, Image of the EU and voting in the EP 2004 Will vote in 2004 Will not vote in 2004 Positive Neutral Negative Don t Know Table 3, Attitude toward dissolution of the EU and voting in the EP 2004 Will vote in 2004 Will not vote in 2004 Very sorry Indifferent Very relieved Don t know