ICM Poll for The Guardian

Transcription

1 Clear thinking in a complex world ICM Poll for The Guardian Fieldwork dates: th April 0 Interview Method: Telephone, and separately online. Population effectively sampled: All adults aged + Phone Sampling Method, RDD: Within each government office region, a random sample of telephone numbers was drawn from the entire BT database of domestic telephone numbers. Each number so selected had its last digit randomised so as to provide a sample including both listed and unlisted numbers. Phone Sampling Method, Mobile RDD: A random sample of mobile telephone numbers was generated in proportion to network provider market share. As with the landline process, seed telephone numbers are used to create the mobile RDD sample by randomising the last N digits of the seed number. Phone Sample size:,00 Online Sampling Method: A nationally representative sample was selected a trandom from the NewVistatm panel of 00,000+ adults, with sample selected in proportion to population distribution. Sample size: 00 adults aged + Data weighting: In both cases, data were weighted to the profile of all adults aged +. Data were weighted by sex, age, social class, household tenure, work status and region. Targets for the weighted data were derived from the National Readership survey, a random probability survey comprising,000 random facetoface interviews conducted annually. The data were further weighted by declared votes in the 0 general election. The weighting scheme is designed as follows:

2 Weighting by past votes phone. Respondents are asked whether they voted in the last general election (0) and if they did, which party they voted for.. The sample is weighted by demographics (age, sex, tenure etc). However, after such weighting the declared past votes may not match, exactly, the results of the last election. Partly this is because demographics (by which ICM control the sample) are relatively poorly correlated with vote behaviour. Nevertheless past vote weighting has to be used with caution as some people genuinely forget how they voted.. ICM takes the declared past votes on any new poll and adds it to the most recent ICM polls containing the same question. The average of these polls is used in the past vote weighting scheme. (Polls conducted just after the 0 General Election will obviously rely on only those polls that have been conducted).. ICM compares the declared past votes derived in ) above to the actual result of the last general election and gives a weight of 0% to the results of the last election and 0% to the average of the most recent polls, thereby assuming that most of the difference can be attributed to political imbalance in the sample and to faulty recall. Weighting by past votes online The sample were fully weighted to the 0 General Election result. Recall on online tests has been superior to that achieved over the telephone, and given the resultant minimal impact of past weight voting online, making provision for faulty recall seems unnecessary. Weighting for turnout both phone and online. ICM ask respondents to say how likely it is that they will go and vote in a new general election using a ten points scale where 0 means they would be absolutely certain to vote and means they would be certain not to vote.. We then weight people by their anticipated turnout. If someone is 0/0 certain to vote, they are given a weight of.0. If someone is /0 certain to vote they are given a weight of 0. etc. People who tell us they are likely to vote in the next General Election but did not vote in the last, are further downweighted. If someone says they are 0/0 certain to vote but did not vote in 00, they are given a weight of 0.. If they say /0 certainty, the weight becomes 0. etc. Voting intentions both phone and online: ICM derives vote intentions from questions. First of all respondents are asked how likely it is that they would be to go and vote in a new election. Those who say they will vote are asked to say which party they would support in a new election. Respondents are then asked whether they voted in 0 and which party they voted for in that election. The vote figures shown in the tables are calculated after ICM has excluded those who say they will not vote, refuse to answer the question or don t know who they would vote for (but see below).

3 Adjustment process : Partial Refuser Reallocation A.) of 0 servative and Labour voters who refuse to answer the vote intention question or say they don t know, are added back to the party they voted for in 0. B.) 0% of 0 voters for all other parties who refuse to answer the vote intention question or say they don t know, are added back to the party they voted for in 0. Adjustment process : Refuser Reallocation refusers are people who refuse/dk their future vote intention AND also refuse/dk who they voted for in the previous General Election (0). Given the lack of any political information about such respondents to date, ICM has excluded them from the vote intention figures. However, our post0 Recall Survey revealed that Refusers (who were subsequently willing to tell us what they did in the 0 General Election) split disproportionately across different parties. Indeed, one important observation was that more than half of all Refusers actually voted servative, with more than twice as many voting servative than Labour. Our new adjustment thus reallocates some Refusers back into the poll sample. This is achieved in the following way:. The number of Refusers on any poll is multiplied by the proportion of Partial Refusers who were (already) reallocated in Adjustment Process. (For example, if 0% of Partial Refusers were added back, then 0% of Refusals will be added back).. Refusers are then multiplied by each party s share of reallocated Partial Refusers. (For example, if 0% of already allocated Partial Refusals were 0 servative voters, then 0% of remaining Refusals will be reallocated to the servatives).. ICM s default position is that Refusers at least look like Partial Refusers in terms of political makeup. However, given the findings of our Recall Poll, we believe that Refusals are probably even more proservative than prolabour. In order to allow for this, the share of Refusals added back to the servatives is increased by 0% (for example, from the 0% mentioned in (, above) to 0%), with a corresponding reduction of 0% in the share of Refuser reallocation to Labour. Our expectation is that the combined effects of Adjustments + as described above will have the net effect of adding c. percentage points vote share to the servatives, and reduce the Labour vote share by c.0 percentage points compared to the pre0 ICM adjustment process. Questions: The computer tables attached in PDF format show each question, in full, in the order they were put to respondents, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data including but not limited that published. Further enquiries: martin.boon@icmunlimited.com British Polling Council: ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

4 Region Vote in 0 General Election Voting Intention Class Age Gender SNP/ Eng Mid Scot PC/ land South lands North Wales land DNV Green UKIP Dem Lab UKIP Dem Lab DE C C AB + Female Male Cetain to vote (0) 0% 0% % 0% () 0% % () % 0% % 0% 0 0 () 0% 0 0 () 0 () () 0 0 () () 0 0 Certain not to vote () % % % Refused Mean Standard deviation Standard error Page Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were held tomorrow?

5 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were held tomorrow? Page Cetain to vote (0) () () () () () () () () Certain not to vote () Refused Mean Standard deviation Standard error EU Referendum Remain Leave

6 Region Vote in 0 General Election Voting Intention Class Age Gender SNP/ Eng Mid Scot PC/ land South lands North Wales land DNV Green UKIP Dem Lab UKIP Dem Lab DE C C AB + Female Male servative % % % 00% % % 0% 0% 0% % Labour % 0% % 0% 00% 0% % 0 eral Democrat/ % 00% eral Scottish National % Party/SNP Plaid Cymru % Green Party 0 0 UK Independence Party 0% 0% 0% 00% % % 0% (UKIP) British National Party (BNP) 0 0 Will not vote % % % % 0% 0% % 0 Refused % 0% Page Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q.B The servatives, Labour, the eral Democrats, UKIP and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?

7 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q.B The servatives, Labour, the eral Democrats, UKIP and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Page servative Labour eral Democrat/ eral Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green Party UK Independence Party (UKIP) British National Party (BNP) Will not vote Refused % EU Referendum Remain Leave 0 0% % 0 0%

8 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Data derived from: Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. I would like to know how certain it is that you would actually vote in a general election? Q.B The servatives, Labour, the eral Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (), don't know who they would vote for () or refuse to answer () THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS Page Gender Male Female Age + AB Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote in 0 General Election SNP/ PC/ Lab Dem UKIP Green DNV Region Mid North lands Scotland Wales England South servative 0 % 0% 0 0% % 0 00% % % 0 % 0 Labour 0 % 00% 0 0% 0 0 eral Democrat/ eral 00% 0% 0 Scottish National Party/SNP 0 0% 0 0% Plaid Cymru % Green Party 0% UK Independence Party (UKIP) 0 0% 00% 0 % % 0

9 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Data derived from: Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. I would like to know how certain it is that you would actually vote in a general election? Q.B The servatives, Labour, the eral Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (), don't know who they would vote for () or refuse to answer () THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS Page servative Labour eral Democrat/ eral Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green Party UK Independence Party (UKIP) 0 EU Referendum Remain Leave 0% 0 0 0% 0%

10 Table Published Vote Intention Figures Percentages derived from the responses of 0 respondents Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page Col percents servatives Labour eral Democrats UKIP Green SNP PC

11 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q. The referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union will take place on June rd. Many people we have spoken to will not vote in that referendum, while others will vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in the EU referendum on June rd? On a ten point scale if 0 would mean you would be absolutely certain to vote and would mean you would be certain not to vote, how likely is it that you will cast your vote? Page Gender Male Female Age + AB Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote in 0 General Election SNP/ PC/ Lab Dem UKIP Green DNV Region Mid North lands Scotland Wales England South Cetain to vote (0) % % 0 % 0 % 0 () 0 % 0 % 0 () () % 0 () 0 0 () 0 % % 0 () () 0 () 0 Certain not to vote () % 0 Refused Mean Standard deviation Standard error

12 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q. The referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union will take place on June rd. Many people we have spoken to will not vote in that referendum, while others will vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in the EU referendum on June rd? On a ten point scale if 0 would mean you would be absolutely certain to vote and would mean you would be certain not to vote, how likely is it that you will cast your vote? Page Cetain to vote (0) () () () () () () () () Certain not to vote () Refused Mean Standard deviation Standard error EU Referendum Remain Leave % %

13 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Page 0 Gender Male Female Age + AB Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote in 0 General Election SNP/ PC/ Lab Dem UKIP Green DNV Region Mid North lands Scotland Wales England South Remain a member of the European Union % 0 0% % % Leave the European Union % 0 % 0 0 0% 0 0% 0% 0% 0 0 % 0 0 % Certain not to vote in EU Referendum % 0 % % 0 0 % % 0%

14 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Page Remain a member of the European Union Leave the European Union Certain not to vote in EU Referendum EU Referendum Remain Leave 00% 00%

15 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Base: All certain to vote Page Gender Male Female Age + AB Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote in 0 General Election SNP/ PC/ Lab Dem UKIP Green DNV Region Mid North lands Scotland Wales England South Remain a member of the European Union 0% 0 0% % 0 % 0 0 Leave the European Union 0% 0 % 0% 0 0 % 0 0% 0% % % %

16 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Base: All certain to vote Page Remain a member of the European Union Leave the European Union 0% EU Referendum Remain Leave 00% 00%

17 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Base: All certain to vote in the EU referendum (EU referendum weighted) Page Gender Male Female Age + AB Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote in 0 General Election SNP/ PC/ Lab Dem UKIP Green DNV Region Mid North lands Scotland Wales England South Remain a member of the European Union 0 % 0 0% % % % % % 0 Leave the European Union 0 % 0% 00 % % 0 0% % 0 % 0% % % 0 0 0%

18 Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Base: All certain to vote in the EU referendum (EU referendum weighted) Page Remain a member of the European Union Leave the European Union 0 0 EU Referendum Remain Leave 0 00% %

19 Table Q.C/D Voting in May th 0 General Election Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page servative Labour eral Democrat/ eral Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green Party UK Independence Party (UKIP) British National Party (BNP) Did not vote Refused Unweighted Weighted %

20 Table 0 Have you taken a foreign holiday in the last years? Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page Yes No Unweighted Weighted % 0 0%

21 Table Is the house or flat in which you live...? Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page Owners Owned outright without mortgage Owned with a mortgage or loan Renters Rented from the council Rented from a housing association Rented from someone else Rent free Unweighted Weighted %

22 Table How many cars are there in your household? Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page None + Mean Standard deviation Standard error Unweighted Weighted %.. 0.0

23 Table Current working status Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page 0 Working Working full time working 0 hours per week or more Working part time working between and hours per week Not Working Not working but seeking work or temporarily unemployed or sick Not working and not seeking work/ student Retired on a state pension only Retired with a private pension House person, housewife, househusband, etc. Unweighted % 0 0% 0 Weighted 00 00

24 Table SEG Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page AB A B C C D E DE Unweighted % 0 0% Weighted %

25 Table Age Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page or older Average age Unweighted % %. Weighted

26 Table Gender Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page Male Female Unweighted Weighted %

27 Table Region Opinion Poll CATI Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page Scotland North East North West Yorkshire & Humberside West Midlands East Midlands Wales Eastern London South East South West Unweighted % 00 0% % Weighted % % 00 0% %

28 Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table QR. As far as you know, is your name on the electoral register, that is, the official list of people who can vote, either where you are living now or somewhere else? Page Gender Male Female Age + + AB Social Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote In 0 General Election Lab UKIP Dem Midlands Scotland Wales North Region England South Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Remain a member Leave of EU the EU Yes 0 0 % 00% % 00% % % % 00% % % 0 0 % % Yes where living now % % 0 % Yes somewhere else/ another address 0 No 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

29 Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table QA. Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote, how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Page Gender Male Female Age + + AB Social Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote In 0 General Election Lab UKIP Dem Region Mid North lands Scotland Wales England South Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Remain a member Leave of EU the EU Absolutely certain to vote 00 % % 0 % % % 0% 0 0 % 0 0% 0% 0% % 0% % % 0 0 % % % 0 % % 0 % 0% Certain not to vote Refused Mean Standard deviation Standard error Prepared by ICM Research fidential

30 Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the Vote In 0 General European Union? Region Election Voting Intention Social Class Age Gender Remain a Leave member Eng Mid Scot the EU of EU land South lands North Wales land Dem UKIP Lab UKIP Dem Lab DE C C AB + + Female Male servative % % 00% % Labour % 00% % 0% 0 eral Democrat 0% 00% % UK Independence Party 0% 00% (UKIP) 0 0 Scottish National % Party/SNP 0 Plaid Cymru 0% Green % 0% Another party 0 Would note vote % % 0% % 0% 0 Refused Page Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table QB. The servatives, Labour, the eral Democrats, UKIP, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party would you vote for? Prepared by ICM Research fidential

31 Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Data derived from: Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Q.B The servatives, Labour, the eral Democrats, UKIP, and other parties would fight a new Genereal Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (), don't know who they would vote for () or refuse to answer () THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS Page Gender Male Female Age + + AB Social Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote In 0 General Election Lab UKIP Dem Region Mid North lands Scotland Wales England South Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Remain a member Leave of EU the EU servative % 0% 0 0% 00% 0 % % 0 0 Labour 0 0 0% % % % eral Democrat 0 % 0% 0% % 0 0 0% % UK Independence Party (UKIP) 0 % 0% 0% 00% % 0 % 0 Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green 0 0 Another party Prepared by ICM Research fidential

32 Table Published Vote Intention Figures Percentages derived from the responses of respondents Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page Col percents servative Labour eral Democrat SNP Plaid Cymru Green UKIP Prepared by ICM Research fidential

33 Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q0. The referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union will take place on June rd. Many people we have spoken to have told us that they will not vote in the referendum, while others will vote. How certain it is that you would actually vote in the EU referendum on June rd? On a ten point scale, 0 would mean you would be absolutely certain to vote and would mean you would be certain not to vote, how likely is it that you will cast your vote? Page Gender Male Female Age + + AB Social Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote In 0 General Election Lab UKIP Dem Region Mid North lands Scotland Wales England South Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Remain a member Leave of EU the EU Absolutely certain to vote 0 0% % 0% % 0% 0 % 0 0% % 0 0% % 0% 0% % 0% % 0 0% 0% 0% Certain not to vote 0 0 Mean Standard deviation Standard error Prepared by ICM Research fidential

34 Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Base: All Respondents Page Gender Male Female Age + + AB Social Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote In 0 General Election Lab UKIP Dem Region Mid North lands Scotland Wales England South Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Remain a member Leave of EU the EU Remain a member of the European Union 0 0% 0 % 0% 0% % 0 00% Leave the European Union 0 % 0% % % 0 % 0 0 0% 0% 0 00% Certain not to vote in EU Ref 0 0% % 0 % % 0% % 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

35 Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table 0 Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Base: All registered to vote and certain to vote in the EU Ref Page 0 Gender Male Female Age + + AB Social Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote In 0 General Election Lab UKIP Dem Region Mid North lands Scotland Wales England South Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Remain a member Leave of EU the EU Remain a member of the European Union 0 0% 0 % 0 0 % % 0% 0% 0% 0 00% Leave the European Union 0 0% % 0% % 0% 00% % 0% % 0% Prepared by ICM Research fidential

36 Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Base: All registered to vote and certain to vote in the EU Ref(EU Ref weighted) Page Gender Male Female Age + + AB Social Class C C DE Voting Intention Lab Dem UKIP Vote In 0 General Election Lab UKIP Dem Region Mid North lands Scotland Wales England South Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Remain a member Leave of EU the EU Remain a member of the European Union 0 0% 0 0% 0% 0 % 0 % 0 00% Leave the European Union 0 0% % 0 0% % % 0 % 0% 0% % % % Prepared by ICM Research fidential

37 Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Table QC. Please think back, very carefully to the last general election on May th 0. Some people were not able to vote in that election. Which party did you actually vote for? Was it the servatives, Labour, UKIP, eral Democrat, or another party, or did you not manage to vote on that occasion? Page servative Labour UK Independence Party (UKIP) eral Democrat/ eral Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green Party Another party Did not vote Prefer not to say Unweighted Weighted Prepared by ICM Research fidential

38 Table Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page Gender Male Female Age + Average age Unweighted %. Weighted % 0 % 0. Prepared by ICM Research fidential

39 Table Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page Social Grade AB C C DE Region North Midlands South Unweighted 00 Weighted 00 % 0 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

40 Table Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page Working status Fulltime Parttime Not working but seeking work or temporarily unemployed/sick Not working/not seeking work Retired Student House person/housewife/ Househusband Unweighted Weighted Prepared by ICM Research fidential

41 Table Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : th th April 0 Page Tenure Owned outright Owned with a mortgage or loan Rented from the council Rented from a housing association Rented from someone else Rent free Unweighted % Weighted 00 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential