The Guardian. Campaign Poll 8, May 2017

Transcription

1 Choice Matters. The Guardian Campaign Poll, May 0 Fieldwork dates: th May 0 Interview method: Online Population effectively sampled: All GB adults aged + Online Sampling Method: A nationally representative sample was selected at random from the NewVista panel of 00,000+ adults, with sample selected in proportion to population distribution. Sample size:,00 GB adults aged + Data weighting: In both cases, data were weighted to the profile of all adults aged +. Data were weighted by sex, age, social class, household tenure, work status and region. Targets for the weighted data were derived from the National Readership survey, a random probability survey comprising,000 random facetoface interviews conducted annually. The data were further weighted by declared votes in the 0 general election. The weighting scheme is designed as follows:

2 Weighting by past votes online The sample were fully weighted to the 0 General Election result. Recall on online tests has been superior to that achieved over the telephone, and given the resultant minimal impact of past weight voting online, making provision for faulty recall seems unnecessary. Weighting for turnout ICM has constructed a turnout probability matrix based on an interlocking combination of age and social grade. Turnout estimates from various sources, most notably but not limited to the British Election studies were factored into the matrix in order provide a best estimate for each demographic subgroup, modelled to population incidence and real turnout levels from the 0 General Election. Weighting for political interest The data is weighted to the standard question on level of interest in politics, from BES 0. Voting intentions: ICM derives vote intentions from questions. First of all respondents are asked if they are registered to vote in UK elections. Those not registered are excluded from vote intention calculations. Then, respondents are asked how likely it is that they would be to go and vote in a new election, although this question is no longer used to create turnout factors. Those who say they will vote are asked to say which party they would support in a new election. New: ICM collects full post code for every respondent at the outset of the survey. This allows us to place each into the actual political constituency in which they live. As UKIP is only standing candidates in a proportion of all constituencies, in those where no such candidate is standing we did not show UKIP as a possible answer option. In such places, we indicated that UKIP were not standing and asked respondents to state their voting preference accordingly. Respondents are then asked whether they voted in 0 and which party they voted for in that election. The vote figures shown in the tables are calculated after ICM has excluded those who are not registered, say they will not vote, refuse to answer the question or don t know who they would vote for (but see below). Adjustment process : Partial Refuser Reallocation A.) of 0 Conservative and Labour voters who refuse to answer the vote intention question or say they don t know, are added back to the party they voted for in 0. B.) 0% of 0 voters for all other parties who refuse to answer the vote intention question or say they don t know, are added back to the party they voted for in 0. Adjustment process : Refuser Reallocation refusers are people who refuse/dk their future vote intention AND also refuse/dk who they voted for in the previous General Election (0). Given the lack of any political information about such respondents to date, ICM has excluded them from the vote intention figures. However, our post0 Recall Survey revealed that Refusers (who were subsequently willing to tell us what they did in the 0 General Election) split disproportionately across different parties. Indeed, one important observation was that more than half of

3 all Refusers actually voted Conservative, with more than twice as many voting Conservative than Labour. Our new adjustment thus reallocates some Refusers back into the poll sample. This is achieved in the following way:. The number of Refusers on any poll is multiplied by the proportion of Partial Refusers who were (already) reallocated in Adjustment Process. (For example, if 0% of Partial Refusers were added back, then 0% of Refusals will be added back).. Refusers are then multiplied by each party s share of reallocated Partial Refusers. (For example, if 0% of already allocated Partial Refusals were 0 Conservative voters, then 0% of remaining Refusals will be reallocated to the Conservatives).. ICM s default position is that Refusers at least look like Partial Refusers in terms of political makeup. However, given the findings of our Recall Poll, we believe that Refusals are probably even more pro Conservative than prolabour. In order to allow for this, the share of Refusals added back to the Conservatives is increased by 0% (for example, from the 0% mentioned in (, above) to 0%), with a corresponding reduction of 0% in the share of Refuser reallocation to Labour. Questions: The computer tables attached in PDF format show each question, in full, in the order they were put to respondents, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data including but not limited to that published. Further enquiries: martin.boon@icmunlimited.com British Polling Council: ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

4 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table QR. As far as you know, is your name on the electoral register, that is, the official list of people who can vote, either where you are living now or somewhere else? Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Yes % 0 00% Yes where living now % Yes somewhere else/ another address 0 No 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

5 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table QR. As far as you know, is your name on the electoral register, that is, the official list of people who can vote, either where you are living now or somewhere else? Page Con Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Vote In 0 General Election Con Lib Lab UKIP Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 EU Ref/0 voting pattern DNV/ Con Con Lab Lab LD LD UKIP UKIP Remain Leave DK Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Political Interest Lab Con held held AND AND LDheld Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative held (i.e. AND Con Lab>. held Lab/Con in >0. Scotlan Margina E&W) in E&W) d Other l Yes 0 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 0 00% 00% 00 00% 00% 00% 0 00% 00% 00% 00% Yes where living now 00% % 00% 0 00% 0% Yes somewhere else/ another address 0 0% No 0 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

6 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table QA. Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote, how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Absolutely certain to vote 0 0 0% 0 0 0% % % 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0% Certain not to vote Refused Mean Standard deviation Standard error Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

7 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table QA. Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote, how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Page 0 Absolutely certain to vote Certain not to vote Refused Mean Standard deviation Standard error Vote In 0 General EU Ref Vote in June Voting Intention Election 0 EU Ref/0 voting pattern Political Interest Lib Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Con Lab UKIP Dem DNV/ Con Con Lab Lab LD LD UKIP UKIP Remain Leave DK Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Very Fairly Lab held AND Not Not at LAB< very all in E&W % % 0% % 0% 0% 0% % % Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Con held (i.e. held AND Con AND LDheld Lab>. held Lab/Con CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Margina in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d Other l % 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

8 Region Educational attainment Social Class Working status Ethnicity Age Gender Still Secon Higher Not Work Work Eng Mid Scotstudyin dary / Degree degree work Part Full Non land South lands North Wales land g NVQ / NVQ / NVQ DE C C AB Student Retired ing time time white White + + Female Male Conservative 0% 0% Labour 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 Liberal Democrat 0% 0 UK Independence Party (UKIP) 0 0 Scottish National 0% Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green 0 Another party Would not vote % 0 0 Refused Page ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table QB. The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party would you vote for? Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

9 Page ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table QB. The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party would you vote for? Prepared by ICM Research Confidential EU Ref Vote in June Vote In 0 General Marginals Political Interest EU Ref/0 voting pattern 0 Election Voting Intention Safe Safe Labour Conserv (i.e. ative Lab (i.e. held Con Lab Con AND held held Lab/Con held Lab>. LDheld AND AND Margina Scotlan >0. in seats LAB< CON<0% Not at Not UKIP UKIP LD LD Lab Lab Con Con DNV/ Lib l Other d in E&W) E&W) in E&W in E&W. in E&W. all very Fairly Very Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave DK Leave Remain Dem UKIP Lab Con Other UKIP Lib Dem Lab Con Conservative 0% 0% 00% Labour 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 00% 0% 0 0 Liberal Democrat 0% 00% UK Independence Party 0% 00% (UKIP) 0 Scottish National Party/SNP 0 0 Plaid Cymru Green 0% 0% Another party 0 Would not vote % 0% 0% 0 Refused

10 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Data derived from: Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Q.B The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (), don't know who they would vote for () or refuse to answer () THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Conservative % 0 0 0% 0 0 0% 00 0 Labour 00 0% 0% 0% 0 00 Liberal Democrat 0% 0 0% 0 UK Independence Party (UKIP) 0 Scottish National Party/SNP 0 0 0% Plaid Cymru Green 0 Another party 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

11 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Data derived from: Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Q.B The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (), don't know who they would vote for () or refuse to answer () THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS Page Con Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Vote In 0 General EU Ref Vote in June Election 0 EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lib DNV/ Con Con Lab Lab LD LD UKIP UKIP Con Lab UKIP Dem Remain Leave DK Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) Scotlan d Other Lab/Con Margina l Conservative 00% 0 0% 0 0% % 0 Labour % 0% % 0 0% Liberal Democrat 00% UK Independence Party (UKIP) 00% 0 0 0% 0 0 0% Scottish National Party/SNP 0 Plaid Cymru Green Another party 0 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

12 Table Published Vote Intention Figures Percentages derived from the responses of respondents ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Col percents Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat SNP Plaid Cymru Green UKIP Other Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

13 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Q. Thinking about how Theresa May has responded to the Manchester Arena attack, do you think she has handled it: Page 0 Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Well 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% Badly 0% % 0 0% 0% 0% 0 0% % 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

14 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Q. Thinking about how Theresa May has responded to the Manchester Arena attack, do you think she has handled it: Page Con Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Con Lab UKIP Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ Remain Leave DK Con Con Leave Remain EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Leave Remain Leave Remain UKIP UKIP Leave Remain Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lab/Con Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Margina Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d Other l Well % 0 0 0% 0% 0 0% Badly 0 0% % 0 0% 0 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

15 Table Q. And, if Jeremy Corbyn were prime minister, how do you think he would have handled it: ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Better than Theresa May % 0% 0% 0% 0% Worse than Theresa May 0% % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0 Much the same as Theresa May % 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0% 0% 0 0% 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

16 Table Q. And, if Jeremy Corbyn were prime minister, how do you think he would have handled it: ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Con Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Vote In 0 General EU Ref Vote in June Election 0 EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lib DNV/ Con Con Lab Lab LD LD UKIP UKIP Con Lab UKIP Dem Remain Leave DK Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Political Interest Lab held AND Not Not at LAB< Very Fairly very all in E&W. Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Con held (i.e. held AND Con AND LDheld Lab>. held Lab/Con CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Margina in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d Other l Better than Theresa May % 0 0% 0 0% Worse than Theresa May % 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 Much the same as Theresa May % 0 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

17 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Q. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign itself, have your chances of voting: Summary table Page Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP Green Increased 0 Decreased Stayed the same 0 0 0% 0 0 0% 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

18 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Q. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign itself, have your chances of voting: Conservative Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Increased 0 0% 0% Decreased Stayed the same % % 0% 0% % 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

19 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Q. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign itself, have your chances of voting: Conservative Page Con Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Con Lab UKIP Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ Remain Leave DK Con Con Leave Remain EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Leave Remain Leave Remain UKIP UKIP Leave Remain Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lab/Con Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Margina Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d Other l Increased % 0 0% 0 Decreased 0 0 Stayed the same 0 0% 00 0% % 0 0 0% 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

20 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table 0 Q. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign itself, have your chances of voting: Labour Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Increased Decreased 0% 0 0% 0 0% % 0 Stayed the same 0 0 0% % 0% % % % 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

21 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table 0 Q. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign itself, have your chances of voting: Labour Page Con Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Con Lab UKIP Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ Remain Leave DK Con Con Leave Remain EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Leave Remain Leave Remain UKIP UKIP Leave Remain Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lab/Con Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Margina Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d Other l Increased 0 0 0% 0 Decreased 0 0% 0 0 0% Stayed the same 0 0 0% 0% 0 0% 0% 0 0% % 0 0% 0 0 0% % 0% 0% 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

22 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Q. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign itself, have your chances of voting: iberal Democrat Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Increased 0% Decreased 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Stayed the same 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

23 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Q. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign itself, have your chances of voting: iberal Democrat Page 0 Con Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Con Lab UKIP Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ Remain Leave DK Con Con Leave Remain EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Leave Remain Leave Remain UKIP UKIP Leave Remain Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lab/Con Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Margina Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d Other l Increased % 0 0% 0 0% 0 Decreased % 0% 0% Stayed the same 0 0% % 0 0 0% % 0% 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

24 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Q. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign itself, have your chances of voting: UKIP Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Increased 0 0 0% 0 0 Decreased 00 0% 0 0% 0 0 0% 0 Stayed the same % 0% 0% % 0 0% % 0 0% 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

25 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Q. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign itself, have your chances of voting: UKIP Page Con Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Con Lab UKIP Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ Remain Leave DK Con Con Leave Remain EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Leave Remain Leave Remain UKIP UKIP Leave Remain Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lab/Con Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Margina Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d Other l Increased 0% 0% Decreased % 0% 0 Stayed the same 0 0 0% % 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

26 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Q. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign itself, have your chances of voting: Green Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Increased Decreased 0% 0% Stayed the same % 0% 0% 0% 0 0% 0% 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

27 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Table Q. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign itself, have your chances of voting: Green Page Con Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Con Lab UKIP Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ Remain Leave DK Con Con Leave Remain EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Leave Remain Leave Remain UKIP UKIP Leave Remain Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lab/Con Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Margina Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d Other l Increased 0 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Decreased 0 0% 0% Stayed the same 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0% 0% 0 0% 0% 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

28 Table Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Summary table ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron Paul Nuttall Caroline Lucas Jonathan Bartlet Running a good campaign 0 Running a bad campaign 0% % 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

29 Table Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Theresa May ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Running a good campaign % 0 0 0% Running a bad campaign % % 0 0% 0 0% 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

30 Table Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Theresa May ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Running a good campaign Running a bad campaign Vote In 0 General EU Ref Vote in June Voting Intention Election 0 EU Ref/0 voting pattern Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lib DNV/ Con Con Lab Lab LD LD UKIP UKIP Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Con Lab UKIP Dem Remain Leave DK Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d % 0 0% 0% % 0 0 0% % 0% 0 0 Lab/Con Margina Other l 0 0% 0% 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

31 Table Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Jeremy Corbyn ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Running a good campaign 0 0 0% Running a bad campaign % % 00 0% 0 0 0% % 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

32 Table Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Jeremy Corbyn ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Running a good campaign Running a bad campaign Vote In 0 General EU Ref Vote in June Voting Intention Election 0 EU Ref/0 voting pattern Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lib DNV/ Con Con Lab Lab LD LD UKIP UKIP Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Con Lab UKIP Dem Remain Leave DK Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d % 0% 0 0% 00 0% 0% 0 0% % 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0 Lab/Con Margina Other l Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

33 Table Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Tim Farron ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page 0 Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Running a good campaign Running a bad campaign 0 0 0% 0 0% % Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

34 Table Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Tim Farron ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Running a good campaign Running a bad campaign Vote In 0 General EU Ref Vote in June Voting Intention Election 0 EU Ref/0 voting pattern Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lib DNV/ Con Con Lab Lab LD LD UKIP UKIP Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Con Lab UKIP Dem Remain Leave DK Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d % % 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% % 0% Lab/Con Margina Other l 0 0% 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

35 Table Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Paul Nuttall ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Running a good campaign 0 0% 0 Running a bad campaign 0% % 0 0% 0% % 0 0% 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

36 Table Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Paul Nuttall ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Running a good campaign Running a bad campaign Vote In 0 General EU Ref Vote in June Voting Intention Election 0 EU Ref/0 voting pattern Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lib DNV/ Con Con Lab Lab LD LD UKIP UKIP Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Con Lab UKIP Dem Remain Leave DK Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d % % 0 0 0% 0 0% 0% 0 0% 0 0 Lab/Con Margina Other l 0 0% 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

37 Table Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Caroline Lucas ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Running a good campaign 0% % 0% 0% Running a bad campaign 0 0% 0 0% 0 0 0% 0 0 0% % 0 0% 0% 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

38 Table Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Caroline Lucas ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Running a good campaign Running a bad campaign Vote In 0 General EU Ref Vote in June Voting Intention Election 0 EU Ref/0 voting pattern Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lib DNV/ Con Con Lab Lab LD LD UKIP UKIP Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Con Lab UKIP Dem Remain Leave DK Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d % 0 0% 0% 0% 0 0% % 0% 0% % 0 0 0% Lab/Con Margina Other l 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

39 Table 0 Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Jonathan Bartlet ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Running a good campaign 0 0 Running a bad campaign 0% 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0% 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

40 Table 0 Q.. It is now almost six weeks since the election was called. During that time, and based on what you have seen of the campaign, do you think the following candidates are. Jonathan Bartlet ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Running a good campaign Running a bad campaign Vote In 0 General EU Ref Vote in June Voting Intention Election 0 EU Ref/0 voting pattern Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Lib DNV/ Con Con Lab Lab LD LD UKIP UKIP Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Scotlan Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Con Lab UKIP Dem Remain Leave DK Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) d % 0 0% % 0% 0% 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0% 0 Lab/Con Margina Other l 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

41 Table Q. Thinking back to the referendum on UK membership of the European Union in June 0, did you... ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Vote for the UK to Remain in the EU 0 0% % 0 0 Vote for the UK to Leave the EU % 0% 0% 0% Did not vote 00 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% Can't remember/refuse 0 Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

42 Table Q. Thinking back to the referendum on UK membership of the European Union in June 0, did you... ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Con Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem UKIP Other Vote In 0 General EU Ref Vote in June Election 0 Lib DNV/ Con Lab UKIP Dem Remain Leave DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Con Con Lab Lab LD LD UKIP UKIP Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Political Interest Marginals Safe Labour Safe (i.e. Conserv Lab ative Lab Con held (i.e. held held AND Con AND AND LDheld Lab>. held Not Not at LAB< CON<0% seats in >0. Very Fairly very all in E&W. in E&W. in E&W E&W) in E&W) Scotlan d Other Lab/Con Margina l Vote for the UK to Remain in the EU 00 0% 0% 00% 00 00% 00% 00% 00% 0 0 Vote for the UK to Leave the EU % 00% 00% 00% 0 00% 0 0 0% 0 Did not vote 00 0% Can't remember/refuse Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

43 Table Classification ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page 0 Gender Male Female Age + Average age Unweighted Weighted % 0 0%.. Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

44 Table Classification ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Social Grade AB C C DE Region North Midlands South Unweighted Weighted Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

45 Table Classification ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page Unweighted Weighted Working status Fulltime Parttime Not working but seeking work or temporarily unemployed/sick Not working/not seeking work Retired Student 0 House person/housewife/ Househusband Q.C Voting in May th 0 General Election Conservative 0% Labour UK Independence Party (UKIP) Liberal Democrat/ Liberal Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green Party Another party Did not vote Prefer not to say Prepared by ICM Research Confidential

46 Table Classification ONLINE Fieldwork : thth May 0 Page QI. Political Interest Very interested Fairly interested Not very interested Not at all interested Interested Not Interested Unweighted Weighted Prepared by ICM Research Confidential