National Opinion Poll: June 2014 For Publication on 7 th June 2014

Transcription

1 1. National Opinion Poll: June 2014 For Publication on 7 th June 2014

2 Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Irish Independent to be published on Saturday 7 th June 2014 The topics covered were Party Political Support, satisfaction with Government and perceptions of a twin-track economic recovery between Dublin and the rest of the country. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. Interviewing was conducted at 93 sampling points nationwide. 1,019 interviews were carried out between 3 rd 4 th June 2014 Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

3 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 1,019 adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in the home at 93 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/ POLL Interviewing on the poll was carried out between 3 rd 4 th June 2014 The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Irish Independent. Millward Brown & The Irish Independent

4 4. Summary

5 Drip feed of controversy, largely self-inflicted, has led to huge rise in dissatisfaction levels Now that the dust has settled after the Local and European elections, it is pertinent to take stock of how the main parties have emerged. In the aftermath of an electoral bloodbath for some, and a renaissance for others, our latest Millward Brown opinion poll, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, shows how the electorate has reacted to the fallout. First off, Sinn Fein. They have actually risen in support since our last poll in the run-up to the recent elections (up three points to 26pc), and are the largest party in terms of support. In some respects this is unsurprising. They have had their fair share of coverage most of it positive. The image of fresh faced candidates triumphing across all corners of the country is bound to have an impact on their brand equity. People also like to back the party that seems to be going places, and Sinn Fein appear to have that momentum behind them. Let s look at why Sinn Fein have still been so successful recently. Aside from the seductive allure of a message of Anti Austerity, what was striking in the Euro campaign in particular was their almost presidential approach to the task at hand. SF were quietly going about their business from a long distance out, with that single mindedness that others failed to show. Their candidates (one per constituency for the Euros) were selected and on the ground well before most of their peers (the same phenomenon was evident in the local elections). In essence, they were putting in the hard yards much sooner than others. Also, their vote management in the local elections was highly impressive. Others were preoccupied with in-fighting over geography (think FF in Midlands NW, FG in Ireland South) or who to select. There are lessons to be learnt for all prospective candidates from this, but particularly so the establishment parties. 5.

6 Drip feed of controversy, largely self-inflicted, has led to huge rise in dissatisfaction levels (Cont d) 6. Whilst local and European elections by their very nature tend to be more volatile, it is more apparent than ever that there is no such thing anymore as a guaranteed Party Seat. Fianna Fail found this out to their cost in Midlands NW and FG almost did the same in Dublin. From a debating point of view, the days of dismissing Sinn Fein arguments by referring to their past are also numbered. The Government, but Fine Gael in particular, will do well to remember this. It would seem that Sinn Fein, once viewed by the establishment parties as a stroppy teenager who they simply needed to tolerate, has grown up. And the adults failed to notice. One suspects the remaining time of this Dail will see more concerted and co-ordinated attacks on Sinn Fein, with their policies being forensically dissected. Moving to the Government parties, their annus horribilis continues. Fine Gael remains on twenty percent, whilst Labour has now slipped to just five percent. So where did it all go gone wrong? Up until last December, when we were still in the bailout programme, Fine Gael performed relatively well (although there were warning signs for Labour). It seemed that the electorate begrudgingly accepted the medicine that was being administered to it. One could argue the Electorate were simply waiting in the long grass. Another school of thought is that after the Government led us to the promised land of (relative) political sovereignty, it lost its focus. Just one in six (17pc) are pleased with the present course of the Government. Nearly four in five (77pc) are unhappy. This is the highest level of dissatisfaction we have seen in Millward Brown polls for over three years stretching back to the dying days of the Cowen Government. While these results are not as calamitous as that period, the Government will still be extremely nervous of this steady erosion the electorate have decoupled the administration s proudest moment; the bailout exit, from their present performance.

7 Drip feed of controversy, largely self-inflicted, has led to huge rise in dissatisfaction levels (Cont d) Since December, there has been a drip feed of controversy some beyond their control, but most of it self-inflicted. We have seen the downfall of both the Garda Commissioner and the Minister for Justice and a deeply controversial Water Charges introduction (an introduction which was anything but smooth). There has been widespread anger over the provision of medical cards. All against a backdrop of continued austerity (regardless of economic indicators). That s some six months. Labour, of course, has been the lightening rod in this maelstrom, and at five percent, are at their lowest rating so far. Labour are in danger of becoming fatally detached from the herd, especially with Sinn Fein sniping at every opportunity. And that s what Sinn Fein do best think no further than the SDLP. The hope for Labour will be that a change of leader will bring a change of direction, and in turn, a revival in fortunes. However, the effectiveness of any such change will be dictated by simple economics. A new Leader will probably give the party a boost in the short term. The question will be will this boost be based on the dead cat bounce theory, or can it be a more meaningful and sustained revival? Time will tell. 7.

8 8. The Results

9 9. National Opinion Poll Party Support

10 Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows Base: All Aged 18+ (n=1,019) Including Don t Knows Excluding Don t Knows General Election Result Feb nd 23 rd April 13 th 14 th May 3 rd 4 th June 22 nd 23 rd April 13 th 14 th May 3 rd 4 th June Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil The Green Party Independents/others Sinn Féin Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Independents/Others* Sinn Féin Green Party Don t know Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? *Includes People before Profit and Socialist Party, each of which received 1

11 Satisfaction with the Government has fallen back to its lowest level so far. Base: All Aged 18+ (n=1,019) Just one in six are happy with the Current performance Satisfied 22 nd 23 rd April 13 th 14 th May 3 rd 4 th June HIGHER AMONG Fine Gael Supporters 55 ABs 27 Dublin Residents Labour Supporters 21 C1s 20 Farming Community 20 Dissatisfied Don t know HIGHER AMONG Sinn Fein supporters 94 Independents 88 C2DEs 83 Fianna Fáil Supporters 83 Munster Residents year olds year olds Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

12 Two in Three feel the Dublin region is benefitting more from the economic upturn Base: All Aged 18+ (n=1,019) Greater Dublin is benefitting less proportionately Greater Dublin is benefitting disproportionately HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Conn/Ulster Residents 76 Dublin Residents 6 Labour Supporters 7 Sinn Fein Supporters 5 Don t know/ no opinion Munster Residents Rural 70 Independents ABs 69 No difference 4 HIGHER AMONG Dublin Residents 31 Fine Gael Supporters year olds 22 There is no upturn 12. Q. Do you believe that the Greater Dublin area is benefitting disproportionately from the economic upturn compared to the rest of the country or not?

13 13. National Opinion Poll: June 2014 For Publication on 7 th June 2014

14 14. For more information, contact: Paul Moran at