General Election 2015 CONSTITUENCY POLLING REPORT

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Audrey Anna Webster
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1 General Election 2015 CONSTITUENCY POLLING REPORT Con- held targets Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC

2 Methodology 4,003 adults were interviewed by telephone between 26 January and 5 February in the following constituencies: CON- HELD TARGETS Boston & Skegness (1,000: 26 Jan 5 Feb) Castle Point (1,002: 26 Jan 5 Feb) North East Cambridgeshire (1,000: 26 Jan 5 Feb) South Basildon & East Thurrock (1,001: 26 Jan 5 Feb) For each constituency, results were weighted to be representative of all adults living in the constituency. Results are weighted by recalled past vote at the last general election and stated likelihood to turn out at the next. A proportion of those who don't or refuse to say how they will vote are re- allocated to the party they voted for at the 2010 general election. Full data tables are available at

3 Voting intention 1. If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Would it be ervative,, Liberal Democrat,, or another party? If another party : Would that be, the Green Party, the British National Party (BNP), or some other party or do you not how you would vote? 2. And thinking specifically about your own parliamentary constituency at the next general election and the candidates who are likely to stand for election to Westminster there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency? [Prompts as at Q1] (change since 2010) Standard voting intention (Q1) tituency voting intention (Q2) Con Lab Lib Dem Green Other Con Lab Lib Dem Green Other Lead Swing since 2010 (on local VI) Implied result Boston & Skegness (- 11) 17 (- 4) 5 (- 10) 35 (+26) 3 (+3) 2 (- 4) Con- Con hold Castle Point (- 7) 16 (+1) 3 (- 6) 36 (+36) 2 (+2) 6 (- 26)* Con- Con hold North East Cambridgeshire (- 6) 17 (- 1) 7 (- 13) 25 (+20) 4 (+4) 1 (- 4) Con- Con hold South Basildon & East Thurrock (- 9) 28 (- 3) 3 (- 10) 29 (+23) 3 (+3) 1 (- 5) 6 16 Con- Con hold * in 2010 Bob Spink stood as an Independent candidate and came second with 12,174 (27)

4 Aggregate battleground results Data weighted to be representative of the four seats combined. If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Standard voting intention tituency voting intention Swing (based on const. VI) Con Lab Lib Dem Other Con Lab Lib Dem Other Con Con- Are there any parties you would definitely not vote for at the next general election? ALL VOTERS ervative voters voters Lib Dem voters voters Con Thinking about Britain s economy including things like jobs, wages, prices, taxes and interest rates how do you think the British economy will fare over the next year for the country as a whole, and for you and your family? ALL VOTERS ervative voters voters Lib Dem voters voters Country Me & family Country Me & family Country Me & family Country Me & family Country Me & family Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Con

5 Which of the following statements do you most agree with? (a) I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister (b) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister BUT I'd still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister (c) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister AND I'd prefer to have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister instead. ALL VOTERS ervative voters voters Lib Dem voters voters Con I would like to ask whether any of the main political parties have contacted you over the last few weeks whether by delivering leaflets or newspapers, sending personally addressed letters, ing, telephoning you at home or knocking on your door. Have you heard in any of these ways from the ervatives,, the or? Heard from ervatives Heard from Heard from Heard from None of them Con- Lab Which of the following would you most like to see as the outcome of the next election? A ervative government, a coalition between the ervatives and the Liberal Democrats, a coalition between and the Liberal Democrats, or a government? ALL VOTERS ervative voters voters Lib Dem voters voters Don't Don t Don t Don't Con Don t

6 Parties ruled out? 3. Are there any parties you would definitely not vote for at the next general election? Con voters voters voters Boston & Skegness Castle Point North East Cambridgeshire South Basildon & East Thurrock Economic optimism 4. Thinking about Britain s economy including things like jobs, wages, prices, taxes and interest rates how do you think the British economy will fare over the next year for the country as a whole, and for you and your family? For the country as a whole For me and my family Well Badly Well Badly Boston & Skegness Castle Point North East Cambridgeshire South Basildon & East Thurrock

7 Choice of Prime Minister 5. Which of the following statements do you most agree with? (a) I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister (b) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister BUT I'd still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister (c) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister AND I'd prefer to have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister instead. with Cameron Dissatisfied, but prefer Cameron to Miliband Dissatisfied and prefer Miliband Refused / Don t Know Boston & Skegness Castle Point North East Cambridgeshire South Basildon & East Thurrock

8 Local campaign activity 6. I would like to ask whether any of the main political parties have contacted you over the last few weeks whether by delivering leaflets or newspapers, sending personally addressed letters, ing, telephoning you at home or knocking on your door. Have you heard in any of these ways from the ervatives,, the or? From From From From From none Boston & Skegness Castle Point North East Cambridgeshire South Basildon & East Thurrock red election result 7. Which of the following would you most like to see as the outcome of the next election? A ervative government, a coalition between the ervatives and the Liberal Democrats, a coalition between and the Liberal Democrats, or a government? ervative government Con- Lib Dem coalition Lab- Lib Dem coalition government Don t Boston & Skegness Castle Point North East Cambridgeshire South Basildon & East Thurrock

9 Appendix: results at 2010 general election () Con Lib Dem Others Majority Boston & Skegness (49.4) 8899 (20.6) 6371 (14.8) 4081 (9.4) 2249 (5.7) (28.8) Castle Point (44.0) 6609 (14.7) 4232 (9.4) (31.9)* 7632 (17.0) North East Cambridgeshire (51.6) 9274 (17.8) (20.0) 2791 (5.4) 2700 (5.2) (31.5) South Basildon & East Thurrock (43.9) (31.0) 5977 (13.4) 2639 (5.9) 2643 (5.9) 5772 (12.9) * in 2010 Bob Spink stood as an Independent candidate and came second with 12,174 (27)

COULD THE LIB DEM MARGINAL MELTDOWN MEAN THE TORIES GAIN FROM A.V.? By Lord Ashcroft, KCMG 20 July 2010

COULD THE LIB DEM MARGINAL MELTDOWN MEAN THE TORIES GAIN FROM A.V.? By Lord Ashcroft, KCMG 20 July 2010 A referendum on the Alternative Vote is currently planned for 5 May 2011. The pollsters have turned