ScotlandSeptember18.com. Independence Referendum Survey. January Phase 1 and 2 results TNS. Independence Referendum Survey

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1 ScotlandSeptember18.com January 201 Phase 1 and 2 results January

2 1 Phase 1 (Published 2 nd February 201) January

3 Likelihood of voting Two thirds claim they are certain to vote in the referendum, suggesting higher than usual engagement Certain to vote 73 of Yes voters and 7 of No voters claim they are certain to vote. Very likely to vote Quite likely to vote Among undecideds, 2 claim they are certain to vote, highlighting the influential role this group is likely to play in the debate. Not very likely to vote 7 Certain not to vote Q12 How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18 th of September 201? Base: All adults 1+ in Scotland (10) January

4 Voting Intentions Currently, three in ten (29) adults in Scotland intend to vote Yes, 2 No and 29 are undecided; those who claim to be certain to vote are more likely to have an opinion, but one fifth of this group is undecided All adults 1+ All certain to vote Yes 29 Yes 32 No 2 No 9 Don't know 29 Don't know 19 S1 There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18 th of September 201. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Base: All adults 1+ in Scotland (10) / All who are certain to vote (779) January

5 Devo Max Despite not featuring on the referendum ballot, the option of Devo Max would be supported by one third (3), and is most popular among those who are currently undecided All adults 1+ 0 Keep the current arrangement of a Scottish Parliament with its existing powers 31 Yes Voters (287) Keep the current arrangement of a Scottish Parliament with its existing powers Transfer more powers from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament, including tax and welfare but excluding defence and foreign affairs Full independence for Scotland 3 2 No voters (93) Transfer more powers from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament, including tax and welfare but excluding defence and foreign affairs Full independence for Scotland Don t know 10 Undecided (27) Don t know 27 S1A Thinking more generally about the future of Scotland, which of these three options would you support the most Base: All adults 1+ in Scotland (10) January

6 Knowledge about the issues Over half () indicated that they do not have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote, rising to 81 among undecideds Definitely have enough knowledge Probably have enough knowledge Enough knowledge = 3 of Yes voters and 3 of No voters claim they have enough knowledge compared to just 1 of undecideds. Among this latter group, 81 feel they do not have enough knowledge. Probably do not have enough knowledge Definitely do not have enough knowledge 21 3 Not enough knowledge = Don't know 2 Q To what extent do you feel that you have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote in the referendum? Base: All adults 1+ in Scotland (10) January

7 Awareness and reading of White Paper Whilst seven in ten claim to have heard of the White Paper, only 1 indicated they had read any of it. Yes, read all of it Yes, read some of it 1 13 Read any of the White Paper = 1 Aware of the White Paper = 71 Aware of the white paper, but not read any of it 7 Not aware of the white paper 29 Q7: The Scottish Government white paper on Scotland s independence (called Scotland s Future ) was launched on 2th November. Had you heard of the white paper before today, and if so have you read any of it? Base: All Adults 1+ in Scotland (10) January

8 Cameron vs. Salmond Two thirds (7) agreed that there should be a debate on the key issues between David Cameron and Alex Salmond, with 17 disagreeing There should be a debate on the key issues between David Cameron (Prime Minister of the UK) and Alex Salmond (First Minister of Scotland) Agree Strongly Agree Slightly Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree slightly Disagree Strongly Don't know Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that.? Base: All adults 1+ in Scotland (10) Three quarters (7) of Yes voters agree there should be a debate, as do 0 of No voters and 8 of Undecideds January

9 Effectiveness of campaigns Neither campaign appears to have performed well so far, with 32 agreeing that Better Together has outlined the benefits of the UK and 3 agreeing that Yes Scotland has outlined the benefits of Independence The Better Together (No) campaign has clearly outlined the benefits of Scotland staying in the UK The Yes Scotland (Yes) campaign has clearly outlined the benefits of Scotland becoming independent Agree Strongly Agree Slightly Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree slightly Disagree Strongly Don't know Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that.? Base: All adults 1+ in Scotland (10) Yes voters appear to be more satisfied with their campaign 8 of Yes voters agree that Yes Scotland has outlined the benefits of independence, whilst 8 of No voters agree that Better Together has outlined the benefits of the UK January

10 Visibility of campaigns There is agreement that both campaigns need to be seen and heard more in the debate, though there is greater demand for Better Together to increase their presence The Better Together (No) campaign needs to be seen and heard more in the debate The Yes Scotland (Yes) campaign needs to be seen and heard more in the debate Agree Strongly Agree Slightly Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree slightly Disagree Strongly Don't know Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that.? Base: All adults 1+ in Scotland (10) 73 of Yes voters agree that Yes Scotland needs greater visibility, compared to 81 of No voters who feel the same about Better Together January

11 Phase 2 (Published 10 th February) January

12 Most important topic in deciding how to vote Economy and employment are seen as most important issues in deciding how to vote Economy Employment /job prospects for you/your children Healthcare Pensions/benefits Education Personal finances Relations with the rest of the UK Immigration Taxes Energy costs Scotland s EU membership Free care for the elderly Currency Border controls Defence Transport Nuclear Power None of these Don t know * Q1a Which of these would you say is most important to you in deciding how you might vote in the referendum? Base: All adults 1+ in Scotland (1,0) January

13 Importance of topics in deciding how to vote A summary of ranked importance shows health, education and economic issues as priority areas Healthcare Employment Education Pensions/benefits Economy Taxes Energy costs Free care for the elderly Personal finances Immigration Relations with the rest of the UK Scotland s EU membership Currency Defence Border controls Transport Nuclear Power Total first to fifth most important () Most important Second Most Important Third Most Important Fourth Most Imporant Fifth Most Important Q1a-Q1e Which of these would you say is important to you in deciding how you might vote in the referendum? Base: All adults 1+ in Scotland (1,0) January

14 Issues currently devolved to the Scottish Parliament Whilst there is some awareness of the main areas already devolved, the results also highlight that many are lacking knowledge about the status of key issues, which may affect their perception of the debate Education Healthcare Free care for the elderly Transport Other taxes (not including income Energy costs Pensions/benefits Income Tax Scotland s EU membership Immigration Currency 3 Nuclear Power 2 Defence 1 None of these Don't know Q1G Which of these issues do you think are currently devolved to the Scottish Parliament? Base: All adults 1+ in Scotland (1,0) January

15 Most important way of receiving information say that TV is the most important way for them to get information which might help them decide how to vote, with one fifth indicating a preference for online TV news TV programmes News/articles on the internet Looking for information on the internet/websites Blogs / discussion forums on the internet Newspaper/magazine articles Letters/leaflets delivered to your home By talking to friends/family Radio programmes Radio news Social media such as Facebook and Twitter Canvassers/people coming to your door None of these Don't know Any TV = Any internet / online = Any radio = QA Which of the following would you say is most important to you in helping you to make a decision about how to vote? Base: All 1+ adults in Scotland (1,0) January

16 Methodology A representative sample of 10 adults aged 1+ across Scotland was interviewed for the research between 1 th and 20 th January 201. All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing). Interviewing was conducted in sampling points across 7 constituencies selected to represent Scotland geographically and demographically. A quota sampling method was used for respondent selection. To ensure the sample was representative of adults 1+ in Scotland, a weighting matrix was applied to the data according to gender, age, and social grade to match population estimates from the BARB (Broadcasters Audience Research Board) Establishment Report 2011, mid year population estimates 2011 and the 2001 Census. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2011 Holyrood election, as recorded in SPICe Briefing Scottish Parliament Election Results. January

17 ScotlandSeptember18.com January 201 Phase 1 and 2 results January