Chow Gains on Ford FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE. MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President

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1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Chow Gains on Ford Sarah competitive in a one-on-one Toronto, In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 1,045 Torontonians 18 years of age and older, federal MP Olivia Chow would trounce Mayor Rob Ford with 6-in-10 votes (60%) to his one third of the total (33%). Support for Chow is highest among the young (under 35-74%), residents of the old city and East York (72%), those who take transit (68%) or bike or walk (75%), non-property owners (72%), provincial NDP supporters (82%), past supporters of George Smitherman and Joe Pantalone (86% each) and those who disapprove of Rob Ford (85%). Support for Ford is highest among older groups (55 to 64-45%), residents of Scarborough (47%), provincial PC supporters (82%) and those who voted for him in the past (69%). It should be noted that one quarter of those who voted for Rob Ford last time (25%) will vote for Olivia Chow, as will a similar proportion of those who approve of Ford (23%). Sarah competitive with Rob Ford In a 1-on-1 match-up with the mayor, former mayoral candidate Sarah would take just more than one third of the vote (36%), and not that much less than Rob Ford's 4-in-10 (41%). In this match-up[, one quarter don't have an opinion (23%). Support for is highest among the least wealthy (<$20K - 47%), mid-income ($60K to $80K - 45%) and high income groups ($100K+ - 45%), residents of the old city and East York (48%), transit users (44%) and those who bike or walk (50%), provincial NDP supporters (48%), Smitherman (59%) or Pantalone supporters (55%) and those who disapprove of Rob Ford (54%). Chow wins all other match-ups In a four-way match-up Olivia Chow wins with 43% to 32% for Mayor Ford, 13% for Councillor Adam Vaughan and 7% for Sarah. This indicates that 's appeal as a candidate is embodied chiefly in the fact she is not Rob Ford, rather than for any particular qualities of her own. In a three-way match-up, Chow wins even more convincingly with close to half the vote (49%) to one third for Rob Ford (35%) and less than a tenth for Sarah (8%). HIGHLIGHTS: Federal MP Olivia Chow would trounce Mayor Rob Ford with 6-in-10 votes (60%) to his one third of the total (33%). Support for Chow is highest among the young (under 35-74%), residents of the old city and East York (72%), those who take transit (68%) or bike or walk (75%), non-property owners (72%), provincial NDP supporters (82%), past supporters of George Smitherman and Joe Pantalone (86% each) and those who disapprove of Rob Ford (85%). Support for Ford is highest among older groups (55 to 64-45%), residents of Scarborough (47%), provincial PC supporters (82%) and those who voted for him in the past (69%). In a 1-on-1 match-up with the mayor, former mayoral candidate Sarah would take just more than one third of the vote (36%), and not that much less than Rob Ford's 4-in-10 (41%). 1

2 In a four-way match-up with Councillor Shelley Carroll added to the mix, Chow wins with close to half the vote (47%) to one third for Ford (32%) and less than a tenth for Carroll (8%) or (6%). "It is interesting to see Sarah in a competitive position with the mayor. It may be their recent conflict, it may be that she's not him, it may be that she has a genuine constituency. Only time will tell. In the meanwhile, however, Olivia Chow is still the mayoral candidate to beat," said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President. Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@ or at (416) lbozinoff@ HIGHLIGHTS: In a 1-on-1 match-up with the mayor, former mayoral candidate Sarah would take just more than one third of the vote (36%), and not that much less than Rob Ford's 4-in-10 (41%). In this match-up[, one quarter don't have an opinion (23%). Support for is highest among the least wealthy (<$20K - 47%), midincome ($60K to $80K - 45%) and high income groups ($100K+ - 45%), residents of the old city and East York (48%), transit users (44%) and those who bike or walk (50%), provincial NDP supporters (48%), Smitherman (59%) or Pantalone supporters (55%) and those who disapprove of Rob Ford (54%). In a four-way match-up with Councillor Shelley Carroll added to the mix, Chow wins with close to half the vote (47%) to one third for Ford (32%) and less than a tenth for Carroll (8%) or (6%). 2

3 Methodology The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,045 randomly selected residents of Toronto aged 18 or older. The poll was conducted on March 19 th, Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 5%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country s leading survey research firms. This and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at lbozinoff@ 3

4 Two Way Mayoral Trial Heats Ford / Chow % Sample Rob Ford Olivia Chow Don t Know Jan 25 th, Oct 25 th, Jun 25 th 28 th, lbozinoff@ 4

5 Mayoral Election Preference Ford and If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Mayor Rob Ford and former mayoral candidate Sarah? lbozinoff@ [All Respondents] Age / Gender Male Female Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Don't know Region Toronto or North Etobicoke or East York York York Scarborough Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Don't know Household Income <$20K $20- $40- $60- $80-40K 60K 80K 100K $100K+ Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Don't know

6 Primary Transit / Own Property Drive Take the TTC or other public transit Other Yes No Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Don't know lbozinoff@ Current Provincial Party Preference PC Lib NDP Green Other parties Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Don't know Past Mayoral Vote Rob Ford George Smitherman Joe Pantalone Someone else Didn't vote in the last mayoral election Sample Mayor Rob Ford Former mayoral candidate Sarah Don't know Ford Approval / Chow Approval Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Don't know

7 Mayoral Election Preference Ford,, Chow and Vaughn If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Mayor Rob Ford, former mayoral candidate Sarah, federal MP Olivia Chow and Councillor Adam Vaughan? lbozinoff@ [All Respondents] Age / Gender Male Female Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Councillor Adam Vaughan Don't know Region Toronto or North Etobicoke or East York York York Scarborough Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Councillor Adam Vaughan Don't know Household Income <20K K 60K 80K 100K 100K+ Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Councillor Adam Vaughan Don't know

8 Primary Transit / Own Property Drive Take the TTC or other public transit Other Yes No Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Councillor Adam Vaughan Don't know lbozinoff@ Current Provincial Party Preference PC Lib NDP Green Other parties Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Councillor Adam Vaughan Don't know Past Mayoral Vote Rob Ford George Smitherman Joe Pantalone Someone else Didn't vote in the last mayoral election Sample Mayor Rob Ford Former mayoral candidate Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Councillor Adam Vaughan Don't know

9 Ford Approval / Chow Approval lbozinoff@ Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Councillor Adam Vaughan Don't know

10 Mayoral Election Preference Ford, and Chow If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Mayor Rob Ford, former mayoral candidate Sarah and federal MP Olivia Chow? lbozinoff@ [All Respondents] Age / Gender Male Female Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know Region Toronto or North Etobicoke or East York York York Scarborough Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know Household Income <$20K $20- $40- $60- $80-40K 60K 80K 100K $100K+ Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know

11 Primary Transit / Own Property Drive Take the TTC or other public transit Other Yes No Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know lbozinoff@ Current Provincial Party Preference PC Lib NDP Green Other parties Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know Past Mayoral Vote Rob Ford George Smitherman Joe Pantalone Someone else Didn't vote in the last mayoral election Sample Mayor Rob Ford Former mayoral candidate Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know

12 Ford Approval / Chow Approval ROB FORD - Approve ROB FORD - Disapprove OLIVIA CHOW - Approve OLIVIA CHOW - Disapprove Sample Mayor Rob Ford Former mayoral candidate Sarah Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know lbozinoff@ 12

13 Mayoral Election Preference Ford,, Carroll and Chow If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Mayor Rob Ford, former mayoral candidate Sarah, Councillor Shelley Carroll and federal MP Olivia Chow? lbozinoff@ [All Respondents] Age / Gender Male Female Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Copuncillor Shelley Carroll Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know Region Toronto or North Etobicoke or East York York York Scarborough Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Copuncillor Shelley Carroll Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know Household Income <20K K 60K 80K 100K 100K+ Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Copuncillor Shelley Carroll Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know

14 Primary Transit / Own Property Drive Take the TTC or other public transit Other Yes No Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Copuncillor Shelley Carroll Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know lbozinoff@ Current Provincial Party Preference PC Lib NDP Green Other parties Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Copuncillor Shelley Carroll Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know Past Mayoral Vote Rob Ford George Smitherman Joe Pantalone Someone else Didn't vote in the last mayoral election Sample Mayor Rob Ford Former mayoral candidate Sarah Copuncillor Shelley Carroll Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know

15 Ford Approval / Chow Approval Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Sample Mayor Rob Ford Sarah Copuncillor Shelley Carroll Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know

16 Mayoral Election Preference Ford and Chow If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Mayor Rob Ford and federal MP Olivia Chow? [All Respondents] lbozinoff@ Age / Gender Male Female Sample Mayor Rob Ford Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know Region Toronto or East North Etobicoke or York York York Scarborough Sample Mayor Rob Ford Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know Household Income <20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K K 100K+ Sample Mayor Rob Ford Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know Primary Transit / Own Property Drive Take the TTC or other public transit Other Yes No Sample Mayor Rob Ford Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know

17 Current Provincial Party Preference PC Lib NDP Green Other parties Sample Mayor Rob Ford Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know lbozinoff@ Past Mayoral Vote Rob Ford George Smitherman Joe Pantalone Someone else Didn't vote in the last mayoral election Sample Mayor Rob Ford Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know Ford Approval / Chow Approval Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Sample Mayor Rob Ford Federal MP Olivia Chow Don't know

18 For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) Fax: (416)