SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR

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Rolf Reeves
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1 2017 SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR

2 General Election Voting Intention HOW DO YOU INTEND TO VOTE IN THE GENERAL ELECTION? 2 All giving a voting intention Certain to vote 5% 2% 5% 2% SNP LABOUR 25% 42% 25% 43% CONSERVATIVE LIB DEM OTHER 26% 25% SNP lead +16 SNP lead +18 Base: All giving a General Election voting intention = 853; all certain to vote = 797 Data collected among 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22 nd - 27 th May 2017

Satisfaction with Prime Minister, First Minister and Deputy First Minister HOW

HIS/ HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER / FIRST MINISTER/ DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER 3 THERESA

SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 46% SATISFIED 42% DISSATISFIED 59% DISSATISFIED 50%

3 Satisfaction with Prime Minister, First Minister and Deputy First Minister HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/ HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER / FIRST MINISTER/ DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER 3 THERESA MAY NICOLA STURGEON JOHN SWINNEY Net -4 Net +4 Net -9 SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 46% SATISFIED 42% DISSATISFIED 59% DISSATISFIED 50% DISSATISFIED 38% Swing is calculated as the average of change in % satisfied and % dissatisfied

Satisfaction with party leaders HOW SATISFIED OR

PATRICK HARVIE JEREMY CORBYN +100 0-100 +8-26 +1-7

39% SATISFIED 45% SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 39%

DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 50%

4 Satisfaction with party leaders HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS LEADER OF THE XXXX PARTY? 4 KEZIA DUGDALE RUTH DAVIDSON WILLIE RENNIE PATRICK HARVIE JEREMY CORBYN Net +5 Net +6 Net +12 Net -13 Net SATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 45% SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 41% DISSATISFIED 40% DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 50% Swing is calculated as the average of change in % satisfied and % dissatisfied

5 Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS FIRST MINISTER/PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF SCOTTISH LABOUR/THE SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES? Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie Theresa May Nicola Sturgeon Kezia Dugdale John Swinney Jeremy Corbyn Base: All. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

6 Party preferences THINKING ABOUT EACH OF THE MAIN PARTIES STANDING AT THE FORTHCOMING GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW? 6 SNP SCOTTISH LABOUR SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE SCOTTISH LIB DEMS THEY ARE MY PREFERRED PARTY 36% THEY ARE MY PREFERRED PARTY 19% THEY ARE MY PREFERRED PARTY 19% THEY ARE MY PREFERRED PARTY 5% NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY CONSTITUENCY 14% NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY CONSTITUENCY 35% NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY CONSTITUENCY 16% NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY CONSTITUENCY 33% I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER VOTING FOR THEM 46% I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER VOTING FOR THEM 41% I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER VOTING FOR THEM 60% I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER VOTING FOR THEM 58% DON T KNOW / NONE 4% DON T KNOW / NONE 4% DON T KNOW / NONE 5% DON T KNOW / NONE 4%

7 Capable PM WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THE CONSERVATIVES THERESA MAY, OR LABOUR S JEREMY CORBYN? 7 13% 5% THERESA MAY 42% JEREMY CORBYN NEITHER/ ANOTHER CANDIDATE 40% DON T KNOW

8 SNP 2017 SNP 2015 Con 2017 Con 2015 Lab 2017 Lab 2015 Lib Dem 2017 Lib Dem 2015 Green 2017 Green 2015 Other 2017 Other 2015 Party policies Health and the NHS FOR EACH ISSUE, PLEASE TELL ME WHICH POLITICAL PARTY YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR SCOTLAND. 8 Health and the NHS 48% 34% 33% 15% 18% 9% 3% 4% 1% 3% 1% 1%

9 SNP 2017 SNP 2015 Con 2017 Con 2015 Lab 2017 Lab 2015 Lib Dem 2017 Lib Dem 2015 Green 2017 Green 2015 Other 2017 Other 2015 Party policies Education FOR EACH ISSUE, PLEASE TELL ME WHICH POLITICAL PARTY YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR SCOTLAND. 9 49% Education 34% 25% 18% 16% 10% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1%

10 SNP 2017 SNP 2015 Con 2017 Con 2015 Lab 2017 Lab 2015 Lib Dem 2017 Lib Dem 2015 Green 2017 Green 2015 Other 2017 Other 2015 Party policies Crime and anti-social behaviour FOR EACH ISSUE, PLEASE TELL ME WHICH POLITICAL PARTY YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR SCOTLAND % Crime and anti-social behaviour 33% 23% 15% 17% 14% 2% 4% 1% 2% 1% 2%

11 SNP 2017 SNP 2015 Con 2017 Con 2015 Lab 2017 Lab 2015 Lib Dem 2017 Lib Dem 2015 Green 2017 Green 2015 Other 2017 Other 2015 Party policies The environment FOR EACH ISSUE, PLEASE TELL ME WHICH POLITICAL PARTY YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR SCOTLAND. 11 The environment 46% 36% 28% 14% 10% 6% 11% 9% 4% 4% 1%

12 SNP 2017 Con 2017 Lab 2017 Lib Dem 2017 Green 2017 Other 2017 SNP 2017 Con 2017 Lab 2017 Lib Dem 2017 Green 2017 Other 2017 Party policies Defence / Europe FOR EACH ISSUE, PLEASE TELL ME WHICH POLITICAL PARTY YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR SCOTLAND % 33% Defence 37% Europe 25% 15% 14% 3% 3% 1% 5% 1% 1%

13 #INDYREF2? TO WHICH EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS: 13 Agree Disagree There should be an independence referendum in the next two years regardless of the general election result 38% 4% 57% There should not be an independence referendum in the next two years regardless of the general election results 50% 3% 46% There should be an independence referendum in the next two years if the SNP does as well or better than it did in the 2015 general election 42% 4% 51% There should be an independence referendum in the next two years if the SNP gains the majority of seats in Scotland at the general election 42% 3% 53%

14 Support for independence 14 IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION: SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY? CERTAIN VOTERS YES NO All certain voters 4% All giving VI and Certain to vote DON T KNOW 51% 45% 53% 47% Base: All giving voting intention = 921. All certain to vote = 891 Data collected among 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017

15 Technical details 15 This presents the topline results from Scotland. Results are based on a survey of 1,016 respondents (adults aged 18+) conducted by telephone Fieldwork dates: 22 nd - 27 th May Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure and internet usage using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of don t know categories Results are based on all respondents (1,016) unless otherwise stated. Contact us: Mark Diffley: mark.diffley@ipsos.com;

Ipsos MORI April 2018 Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI April 2018 Political Monitor Topline Results 27 th April 2018 Fieldwork: 20 th 24 th April 2018 Technical Details Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,004 adults aged 18+ across