Political Monitor Trends

Transcription

1 Political Monitor Trends December 2007 Contacts:

2 Voting Intentions

3 Base: 1,028 British adults 18+, 29 th -7th December (figures exclude would not vote 1%, undecided 6% and refused 2%) Voting Intentions (29 th ember 7th December) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? LD Absolutely certain to vote 54% (1,028) of the electorate Other 9% Con 14% 42% Lab 35%

4 Voting Intentions and Likelihood to Vote How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? LD All giving a voting intention (75%) Other 14% 10% 37% Con Lab lead = +2% LD All certain to vote (54%) Other 14% 9% 6% Con 42% Lab lead = -7% 39% 35% Lab Lab All voting = 75% (1,393); All certain to vote = 54% (1,028)

5 Voting Intentions Jan 03 Dec 07 (all certain to vote = 54% of electorate) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Howard elected Election Cameron elected Brown elected Con (42%) Lab (35%) LD (14%) 5 0 Jan-03 Feb Jun Jul Aug Sep Dec Jan-04 Feb Jun Jul Aug Dec Jan-05 Feb June July Aug Jan-06 Feb Jun July Dec Jan-07 Jun Jul Aug Sep Dec Base: c.2,000 GB adults each month, of which c.1,060 certain to vote

6 Satisfaction

7 Satisfaction with leaders and the Government % Dissatisfied % Satisfied Net Net change from David Cameron Gordon Brown The Government Base: 938 British adults 18+, 29 th ember 7 th Dec 2007

8 The Government and Prime Minister How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% Net satisfied (+/-) N/A Government Blair Brown Jan-05 Feb June July Aug Jan-06 Feb Jun Jul Dec Jan-07 Jun July Aug Dec Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

9 Gordon Brown (Satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? December 2007 July-Dec 2007 Don t know 16% Satisfied 31% Dissatisfied 54% 40 54% 20 0 Satisfied 31% Dissatisfied Net = -23 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep Dec-07 Base: 938 British adults 18+, 29th ember 7th Dec 2007

10 Base: 255 Labour supporters 18+, 29th 7th Dec 2007 Gordon Brown (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Don t know December % Satisfied 24% 65% July-Dec 2007 Satisfied 65% Dissatisfied 24% Dissatisfied Net = Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep Dec-07

11 David Cameron (Satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? December 2007 Jan 06 Dec 07 Don t know 28% 33% Dissatisfied Satisfied 39% Net = Satisfied 39% Dissatisfied 33% Jan-06 Feb June July Aug Jan-07 Jun Jul Aug Dec Base: 938 British adults 18+, 29th 7th Dec 2007

12 David Cameron (Satisfaction among party supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? December 2007 Jan 06 Dec 07 Don t know 17% 17% Dissatisfied Satisfied 67% Net = Satisfied 67% Dissatisfied 17% Jan-06 Feb June July Aug Dec Jan-07 Jun Jul Aug Dec Base: 246 British adults 18+, 29th 7th Dec 2007

13 Cameron vs. Brown (December 07) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Gordon Brown David Cameron Don t know 16% Satisfied 31% Don t know 28% Satisfied 39% 54% 33% Dissatisfied Net = -23 Base: 938 British adults 18+, 29th 7th Dec 2007 Dissatisfied Net = +6

14 Satisfaction with Duncan Smith/ Howard / Cameron Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Iain Duncan Smith / Michael Howard/ David Cameron is doing his job as Leader of the Conservative Party? Net satisfied (+/-) All Conservative Supporters IDS MH MH DC +50% % Jan-03 Jul Sep Jan-04 Jul Jan-05 July Feb Jun Jan-07 Jul Dec Base: c. 1,000 British adults (c. 200 Conservative voters), 18+ each month

15 Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month Opposition Leaders ( ) % How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his job as? BLAIR HAGUE IDS HOWARD CAMERON 39% 33% 28%

16 Net satisfaction with opposition leaders ( ) Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his job as? BLAIR CAMERON HOWARD HAGUE DUNCAN SMITH

17 Leaders ( ) don t knows % How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his job as? CAMERON BROWN HOWARD DUNCAN SMITH BLAIR HAGUE Months from election as leader Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month

18 Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month Net satisfaction with new PMs Net satisfaction How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? NEW PM MAJOR / BROWN THATCHER / BLAIR Number of month from becoming Prime Minister DONATIONS SCANDAL GE 1992 BLACK WEDNESDAY

19 Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month 0-10 Net satisfaction with new Governments How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country? NEW PM Number of months from new PM Net satisfaction THATCHER / BLAIR GE 1992 MAJOR / BROWN BLACK WEDNESDAY

20 The Liberal Democrats Which of the following politicians I am going to read out, if any, would you like to see lead the Liberal Democrats? Chris Huhne 12% 10% Nick Clegg Don t know 58% 14% 6% Other None of these Base: 938 British adults 18+, 29th 7th Dec 2007

21 Issues Facing Britain

22 Issues facing Britain: December 07 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Race Relations/ immigration Crime/ law and order NHS/Hospitals Defence/ foreign affairs Education/ schools Housing Economy Pollution/Environment Morality/Individual Behaviour Taxation Top spontaneous mentions 15% 13% 10% 8% 7% 21% 21% 33% 37% 46% Base: 938 British adults 18+, 29th 7th Dec 2007

23 Base: c. 1,000 adults 18+ each month Issues facing Britain (last 2 years) % What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Defence/ Foreign Policy/ terrorism Race relations Crime NHS 20 Education/schools 10 0 Pensions/ Social security Economy Europe Jan Jul-05 Sep Jan Jul Dec Jun-07 Aug Dec-07

24 Base: c. 1,000 British adults Issues Facing Britain: Long Term Trends What do you see as the main/other important issues facing Britain today? NHS 2006 Crime/ Law & Order Education 2007 Race relations/ immigration Defence

25 Economic Optimism

26 Get worse December 2007 Don t know Improve 55% 5% 9% 31% Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? EOI = -46% Stay the same January 2004 December 2007 Get worse 55% Stay the same 31% Improve Jan-04 July Jan-05 July Feb June Jan Jul-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 9% Base: 938 British adults 18+, 29th 7th Dec 2007

27 The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next months? Index (get better minus get worse) (Dec 07) Jan '97 '97 '97 '98 Aug '98 Jan '99 Jun '99 '99 '00 Sep '00 Feb '01 Jul '01 Dec '01 '02 '02 '03 Jul '03 Dec '03 '04 '04 '05 Aug '05 Jan '06 Jun '06 '06 '07 Sep '07 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

28 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? January 2004 December 2007 Stay the same 31% Improve 9% Get worse -55% Jan-04 Feb June July Aug Dec Jan-05 Feb June July Aug Jan-06 Feb June July Dec Jan-07 Jun Jul Aug EOI -46% Dec