Press Release. The Canadian Political Scene

Transcription

1 Press Release The Canadian Political Scene July 17, 20

2 Top-line Results I. Federal Voting Intentions

3 Federal Voting Intentions (June 19-July 9) Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? [Decided voters only*] Election % 40.9% 11.2% 25.5% 16.7% 12.2% 4.8% 10.4% Undecided: 18.8% Total sample: n= % 10.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% *Decided voters only: won t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; leaners included

4 Federal Voting Intentions Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? [Decided voters only*] 60% 53% 48% 47% 52% 50% 48% 51% 52% 54% 40% 47% 20% 0% 1- Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct 7- Nov Nov 5- Dec Dec 2- Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr 8- May May 5- Jun Jun 11% 17% 10% Jan- 16-May- 30-May- 16-Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Jan- Feb- Feb- Mar- Mar- Mar- Apr- May- May- Jun- Jul- Liberal 54% 50% 45% 50% 53% 48% 47% 52% 52% 47% 48% 51% 53% 50% 51% 52% 50% 54% PC 19% 14% 13% 13% 15% 16% 14% 14% 17% 14% 17% 17% 16% 17% 18% 22% 21% 17% NDP 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 14% 12% 17% 15% 12% 10% 10% 12% 9% 9% 10% Canadian Alliance 9% 16% 17% 16% 11% 13% 16% 11% 13% 11% 12% 11% 12% 12% 10% 10% 11% 11% Liberal PC NDP Canadian Alliance Most recent data point, June/July 20 Decided voters only: won t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; leaners included

5 Federal Voting Intentions Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? [Decided voters only*] 40% 21% 20% 15% 10% 8% 9% 17% 16% 16% 16% 11% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 0% 1-Jan 2-Mar 1-May 30-Jun 29-Aug 28-Oct 27-Dec 25-Feb 26-Apr 25-Jun 24-Aug 23-Oct 22-Dec 20-Feb 21-Apr 20-Jun Jan- 01 Jun- 01 Aug- Dec- Jan May- 30- May- 16- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Jan- Feb- Feb- Mar- Mar- Mar- Apr- May- May- Jun- Jul- Canadian Alliance 21% 15% 10% 8% 9% 16% 17% 16% 11% 13% 16% 11% 13% 11% 12% 11% 12% 12% 10% 10% 11% 11% Canadian Alliance Most recent data point, June/July 20 Decided voters only: won t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; leaners included

6 Federal Voting Intentions : Regional Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? [Decided voters only*] 75% 50% 25% 0% BC Alta. Prairies Ont. Que. Atl. Liberal 43% 34% 39% 59% 65% 51% CA 24% 28% 21% 8% 2% 5% PC 12% 25% 24% 19% 8% 26% BQ 20% NDP 16% 6% 14% 12% 4% 18% Other 6% 8% 3% 2% 1% 0% Liberal CA PC BQ NDP Other *Decided voters only: won t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; leaners included

7 Likelihood of Changing Voting Intention Q: Would you say that it is very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or very unlikely that you would change your voting intention? VOTING INTENTIONS LIB PC NDP CA BQ Very unlikely Somewhat unlikely Somewhat likely Very likely DK/NR {Base: All Canadians, n=1501}

8 Second Choice Voting Intentions Q: If you were to change your mind, which party would be your second choice? [Filter: those somewhat or very likely to change their vote] ORIGINAL VOTING INTENTIONS LIB PC NDP CA BQ Progressive Conservatives Liberals NDP Canadian Alliance Bloc Quebecois Other 1 DK/NR {Base: n=444}

9 Top-line Results II. Federal Vote in Quebec

10 Federal Voting Intention: Quebec Only Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? [Decided voters only*] election election 65.3% % % % % Undecided: 21.3% Total sample= % 20% 40% 60% 80% June/July 20 *Decided voters only: won t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; leaners included

11 Federal Voting Intention (Quebec Only) Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? [Decided voters only*] 75% 50% 25% 0% 25 Oct 00* 15 Nov 00* 22 Nov 00* Election 00 Jan- 01 Jun- 01 Aug- 01 Jan- May- Aug- Oct- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- Apr- May- May- Jun- Jul- Liberal CA PC BQ NDP *Decided voters only: won t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; leaners included

12 Top-line Results Trust in III. Political Leaders

13 Trust in Canadian Leaders (June 19-July 9) Q: Now I would like to ask you a set of questions examining how much trust Canadians assign to their leaders, using a scale from 1, no trust at all, to 7, a great deal of trust with 4 meaning a moderate amount of trust. How much trust do you have in? Mean ** Chrétien* Harper* MacKay* DK/NR Low Moderate High {Base: All Canadians, n=1501, * ½ sample, ** excludes don t knows }

14 Trust in Liberal Leadership Hopefuls 60 % High trust 50 Paul Martin John Manley Sheila Copps 0 Aug-01 Nov-01 Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May-

15 Martin and Chrétien: Trust among Liberals/Public 60 % High trust Chretien (All Canadians) Chretien (Liberals) Martin (All Canadians) Martin (Liberals) 0 Feb- 1-Feb Mar- 1-Mar Apr- 1-Apr May- 1-May Jun- 1-Jun Jul- 1-Jul

16 Rating the Performance of Canadian Leaders Q: Please rate each of the following current or former national leaders in terms of their performance on a 7- point scale where 1 means terrible, 7 means excellent and the midpoint 4 is neither good nor bad. Mean ** Pierre Trudeau* Lester B. Pearson* Jean Chrétien John Diefenbaker* Brian Mulroney DK/NR Poor Neither Good {Base: All Canadians, June/July 20, n=1501, *1/2 sample;, ** excludes don t knows }

17 Rating the Performance of International Leaders Q: Please rate each of the following current or former national leaders in terms of their performance on a 7- point scale where 1 means terrible, 7 means excellent and the midpoint 4 is neither good nor bad. Mean ** Bill Clinton* Tony Blair* George Bush Sr.* George Bush Jr.* DK/NR Poor Neither Good {Base: All Canadians, June/July 20, n=1501, *1/2 sample;, ** excludes don t knows }

18 Likelihood of a Paul Martin-led Liberal Party Q: How likely do you think it is that Paul Martin will win the leadership of the federal Liberal Party and become the next Prime Minster of Canada? Very likely 58 Somewhat likely 31 Unlikely 5 Don t know/no response {Base: All Canadians, July 20, n=600}

19 Views on a Paul Martin-led Liberal Party Q: Do you think this will be a good or bad thing for the country? Good thing 43 Neither good nor bad 43 Bad thing 12 Don t know/no response {Base: All Canadians, July 20, n=600}

20 Views on a Paul Martin-led Liberal Party Q: How much change do you think a Paul Martin led government would mean for Canada compared to the current Liberal government? Major or radical change 14 Some change 54 Little or no change 27 Don t know/no response {Base: All Canadians, July 20, n=600}

21 For more information: Frank Graves, President t: