How Energy Issues Might Affect This Election

Transcription

1 How Energy Issues Might Affect This Election Issue Publics News Media Priming Gasoline Prices

2 Issue Publics

3 Preference about What Government Should Do on Some Issue β Vote Choice

4 Gabriel Almond (195): The Attentive Public 15%

5 Identifying Issue Public Members How important is this issue to you personally? Extremely important Very important Moderately important Slightly important Not important at all The Issue Public

6 Issue Publics in the United States Abortion 31% Government Social Services Programs 21% Global Warming 17% Gun Control 17% U.S. Military Spending 16% Capital Punishment 14% Women s Rights 12% Race Relations 1% Unemployment 9% Other Sources: National Election Studies, General Social Surveys

7 Doubling of the Issue Public Since 1997 (51 million people) 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 17% 11% 8%

8 Size of the Issue Public 2 5 % 2% 1 5 % 1% 5% % Pacific East South Central New England West North Central Mid- Atlantic South Atlantic West South Central East North Central Mountain

9 Impact of Attitudes on Candidate Preferences Low High Low Urban Unrest Low High Vietnam High Low High Unemployment Defense Govt. Services Russia Low High Low High Low High Abortion.1.5 Low Jobs High.1 Low Minorities High Low High Low High Govt. Services Central America Women Jobs Low High Low High * p <.5

10 Lesson Learned Energy issues will influence vote choices: AMONG people who care deeply about these issues IF candidates take clear and distinct positions on the issues.

11 Candidates Ignore Environment Issues October 3, 26 Lowndes Citizens United For Action is as dismayed as the rest of Alabama over the advertisements on television for the governor's race. We know as the races heat up that the ads will get even more negative, and that all sorts of attacks will be made by both candidates. It really does not have to be this way, and in fact, though studies show that negative ads seem to work, we believe that if the candidates would promote their stand on the issues, all of Alabama would be better educated and better voters. Take the issue of environmental justice. That issue pits the haves against the have-nots nearly all the time. Yet the failure of Alabama to adequately address this issue brings the whole state down. In environmental circles across the country, Alabama is known as a "sacrifice zone." Just like we seem easily led by the negative ads, we are easily led by the public relations efforts of those who would dump on Alabama, pollute our waterways and destroy our natural resources. Our next governor should have a strong background in environmental issues, yet we hear nothing from the candidates. What we want is a specific plan to address the issues: the funding and reforming of the Alabama Department of Environmental Management, a strong policy on landfills, the candidates' support or nonsupport of Sen. Quinton Ross' environmental justice bill, and a plan to save our natural resources statewide. Debra Harris, President, Lowndes Citizens United for Action

12 News Media Priming

13 How well is the President doing his job overall? β 1 β 2 How well is the President handling energy? Intended Vote Choice

14 News Media Priming Political Knowledge Trust in the News Media News Media Attention To an Issue Inference that News Personnel Believe the Issue is Nationally Important Belief that the Issue is More Nationally Important Choice to Place More Weight on the Issue in Formulating Presidential Evaluations

15 New York Times Stories on the Economy Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-91 Apr-91 Jun-91 Aug-91 Oct-91 Dec-91 Feb-92 Apr-92 Jun-92 Aug-92 Oct-92 Month Total Number of Stories

16 Inflation and Unemployment Rates During 1991 and % Unemployed % Change in CPI Jan-91 Mar-91 May-91 Jul-91 Sep-91 Nov-91 Jan-92 Mar-92 May-92 Jul-92 Sep-92 Nov-92 Month Inflation Unemployment

17 Impact of Economic Performance on Overall Performance

18 Gasoline Prices

19 Presidential Approval (199-26) Approval Years (Monthly)

20 Average Gas Price Years (Monthly) Gas Price in cents

21 Inflation Corrected Gas Prices ( as base) Gas Price in cents Years (Monthly)

22 Longitudinal Time Series Analysis Gasoline prices are a determinant of approval of President Bush. Approval of President Bush is a determinant of intended Congressional vote choice.

23 Number of NY Times Articles on Gas Prices Number or Articles Years (Monthly)

24 Longitudinal Time Series Analysis Gasoline prices are a determinant of approval of President Bush. Approval of President Bush is a determinant of intended Congressional vote choice. News media attention to gasoline prices is NOT increasing their impact. When people can see the reality at the gas pump, they don t need the media to help.

25 Conclusions Public preferences about energy policy will have impact among people who care deeply about the issue when candidates take CLEAR and DISTINCT positions. Public approval/disapproval of the President s handling of energy issues will affect voting among people who are highly politically knowledgeable and trust the news media if the media devote LOTS of attention to energy issues. Gasoline prices will affect presidential approval, which in turn will affect vote choices. Dropping prices will increase approval of the President.