Anti-Liberal Sentiment Growing: Public Does Not Believe Finance Minister Martin Did Not Know about Sponsorship Program Misspending

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1 Public Does Not Believe Finance Minister Martin Did Not Know about Sponsorship Program Misspending A COMPAS/National Post Poll COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research February 13, 2004

2 1.0 Introduction Liberal support is faltering in the wake of news about the sponsorship program misspending. Canadians hold former Public Works Minister Alfonso Gagliano and former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien substantially responsible for the government misspending. The public holds Martin responsible as well, feeling that he knew more about the scandal as Finance Minister than he acknowledges. Support for the Liberals has dropped since the Auditor-General s report was released with almost one-third of Canadians feeling negative sentiment towards the party and the Conservatives making the greatest gains in the wake of the turmoil facing the Martin Liberal government. 2.0 Public Doesn t Believe Martin; Trio to Blame Chrétien, Gagliano and Martin An overwhelming majority of Canadians feel that Paul Martin knew more about the sponsorship spending than he has publicly acknowledged, as shown in table 1. Asked how much the former Finance Minister knew about the misspending, 89 of respondents with an opinion say that Martin knew more than his acknowledges. Over half of all respondents (51) feel that Martin knew a lot more. Former Public Works Minister Alfonso Gagliano is held most accountable for the sponsorship spending while former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien is a close second., as shown in table 2. While Martin is held less accountable than Chrétien or Gagliano, a clear majority nonetheless holds him very responsible, 62 scoring 5-7 on the 7 point responsibility scale. 2

3 Table 1: How Much Martin Knew There is talk about what Paul Martin knew when the misspending took place and he was Finance Minister. Do you believe that he knew a lot more than he now says, somewhat more than he now says, or did he really not know at all? [ROTATE] Knew a lot more 51 Knew somewhat more 38 Really did not know at all 12 DNK [REMOVED] 10 Table 2: How Much Gagliano, Chretien, and Martin Are Responsible As you may know there has been talk in the media about the recent Auditor-General s report on government spending. Using a 7-point scale where 7 means entirely responsible and 1, the opposite, to what extent are each of the following responsible for the misuse of funds in the sponsorship program and advertising grants? Former Public Works Minister Alfonso Gagliano Former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien Former Finance Minister Paul Martin Mean DNK [REMOVED]

4 3.0 Canadians Turning Against the Liberals Conservatives and NDP on the Rise The scandal has affected public support for the Liberals. Respondents were asked an open-ended question about how the news about misspending makes them feel about the federal parties. Almost half of all Canadians (47) say that the news made them feel antagonistic to the Liberals or favourable to the Opposition; 9 report feeling pro-liberal or pro-martin as a result of the news, as shown in table 3. Most of the changes in sentiment that rebound against the Liberals are directly antagonistic to the Liberals. Among respondents reporting how they feel in the wake of the news, 35 report feeling anti-liberal, 6 pro-conservative, 5 pro-ndp, and 2 pro-bloc. Support for the Liberals has dropped 5 percentage points from figures reported in a previous COMPAS poll published on January 30 th, as shown in table 4. Support for the Conservatives has risen 7 percentage points and while the NDP has gained a nominal one percentage point since the last COMPAS survey, fielded January and published January 30 th in the National Post. Table 3: How the News Affected Feelings towards the Parties How does this recent news of federal misspending affect how you feel about Canada s federal political parties, and feelings of how you would vote in the next federal election? [UNPROMPTED] Anti-Liberal/Pro-Opposition 47 Will have no effect 28 Anti-every party 12 Pro-Liberal/Pro-Martin 9 Anti-Opposition 3 4

5 DNK or Wont vote [REMOVED] 19 Table 4: Vote Intentions If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? [ROTATE] [IF DON T KNOW OR REFUSE: Which party would you lean towards?] [COMBINED VOTE, i.e. initial vote intention plus party that initial undecideds would lean to] FIELD DATES FEB 13 JAN The Liberal Party led by Paul Martin The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper The NDP led by Jack Layton The Bloc Quebecois led by Gilles Duceppe 9 11 Other 3 4 Would not vote [REMOVED] 3 4 Don t know/undecided [REMOVED] Refused [REMOVED] Methodology The nationally representative sample of N=600 Canadians was interviewed by professional interviewers using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) on Friday 13, Samples of this size are deemed accurate to within approximately 4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The principal investigator on this study was Dr. Conrad Winn ( ). 1 Percent voting for each party after DNK, won t vote, and refused are removed from the calculations. 5