Background Essay on the Campaign

Transcription

1 Background Essay on the Campaign The Gender Gap, Social Values, Life Cycle, and the Conservative Vote COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research June 23, 2004

2 Values and Life Cycle Drivers of the Conservative Vote The purpose of this research note for the National Post, Global TV, and is to show that gender is a very small driver of the vote compared to social values and life cycle. At one extreme are men and women whose social liberalism forms the backdrop for their decisions to live in common law relationships. In this group outside Quebec, the Conservative party falls behind both the Liberals and NDP in support. At the other extreme are voters 60 years of age and older who hold what they themselves would describe as pro-evangelical sentiments. In this group, the Conservatives earn approximately three-quarters support. For the past half century, women voters have leaned to the left while men have leaned to the right. Once again, there is a gender divide in the current federal election campaign. Among voters outside Quebec, the Conservatives earn 7 percentage points less support among women than men, as shown in the fifth pair of vertical bars in the accompanying bar chart. If a picture is worth a thousand words, a bar chart may be worth five hundred. The accompanying bar chart shows that the gender divide is paltry compared to the values and life-cycle divides that separate women from Social and Life-Cycle Drivers of the Conservative Vote Among Men and Women Outside Quebec Common Law All Ages Female Male Young (< 40) Source: poll, n=1600, May 21, Young Married (< 40) Mid-Married (40-59) All Voters Elderly Married (60+) Elderly Married Pro- Evangelical ii

3 each other and men from each other. Social conservativism is virtually absent among the young and especially among individuals living in common law relationships. Social conservativism and the Conservative vote rise among married people and increasingly with each successive age group. Support for the Conservative party becomes a virtually consensus position among older, religious-minded voters. Outside Quebec, the Conservative party is the third ranked party among Canadians living in common law relationships, behind both the Liberals and the NDP. In this group only 17% of women would vote Conservative, 28% among men. Support for the CPC rises successively among young marrieds, married people between 40 and 59 years of age, and married people 60 years of age and older. Among men and women in this cohort, 63% and 54% would vote Conservative. Support for the CPC becomes almost a consensus position among those 60 years of age and older who also hold pro-evangelical attitudes. 1 This mini-report data-mines the National Post/Global/CanWest/ COMPAS national survey (fielded May 14-19, n>1400) to explore public attitudes relating to gender. This opinion survey was the most extensive psychological and policy study undertaken for the media over the course of the campaign. A Methodological Note The COMPAS research team looked at TROC in isolation because the Conservative party is not a factor in Quebec politics, where the Liberal party tends to attract older, more socially conservative voters. Meanwhile the Bloc appeals successfully to younger, socially liberal voters. Bloc voters are the types whom the Liberals and NDP would appeal to outside Quebec. 1 Christian respondents were asked whether they would describe themselves as evangelical definitely yes, probably yes, probably no, or definitely no. Those who replied definitely or probably yes were defined as pro-evangelical for purposes of this analysis. iii

4 We looked only at support for the Conservative party because the CPC is a consistent polar reference point in TROC. The NDP occupy the leftwing pole in ridings where they are strong (e.g. Layton in Toronto-Danforth) while the Liberals occupy the leftwing pole where they are strong and the NDP, weak (e.g. McLellan in Edmonton North). iv

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