Evaluating Stockwell Day

Transcription

1 Draft Evaluating Stockwell Day A National Post/COMPAS Poll COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research Toronto / Ottawa May 11, 2001

2 Public Wants Stock to Call It a Day But Want Him to Stay The Public vs. Both good news and bad news emerge for leader Day in the National Post/COMPAS poll on his future. The bad news is that, among Canadians with an opinion on whether he should resign, those who favour his resignation outnumber more than 2:1 those who oppose his resignation, as evidenced in table 1 below. Furthermore, by an almost 2:1 margin, those favouring an immediate leadership vote outnumber those who want such a vote to follow the party s normal schedule and be held next year, as evidenced in table 2. For Day, the good news is above all that his supporters outnumber his detractors even if the share of the electorate is approximately half of what it was during the recent federal election. Among voters, 46% say that he should not resign vs. 32% calling for his resignation and 22% with no opinion. Among voters with a strong opinion one way or another, Day does especially well (22% definitely stay on vs. 11% definitely resign) although the sub-samples are too small to be entirely reliable. Among voters, those favouring an early leadership review nominally outnumber those who are opposed. Interpreting attitudes towards a leadership review is fraught with challenges because some of his supporters might well favour an early review to give him a possibility of conquering his opponents early before they could do him or his party more damage. Table 1: As you know, there s been controversy over Stockwell Day s leadership of the party. Should he resign as leader definitely resign, probably, probably not, definitely not? Overall Liberal PC NDP Bloc Definitely resign Probably resign Probably not resign Definitely not resign Unprompted: DNK/Ref

3 Table 2: The party is scheduled to have its normal vote on the party leadership next year. Should this vote be held next year or as soon as possible? Vote should be held as soon as possible Vote should be held next year Unprompted: DNK/Ref Overall Liberal PC NDP Bloc The Flight of the Electorate The various Parliamentary and non-parliamentary imbroglios on the political right seem not to have done much good for either rightwing party. The Tories have not surpassed the both are languishing at around 11% with the much criticised Liberals basking in a 50% level of support. The imbroglios involving, Day, and his critics appear to have produced a noticeable rise in the number of undecided voters (30%) and an extraordinary 10% of voters who say that they would follow a kind of plague-on-all-your-houses-strategy and cast their ballot for a politician or party other than those currently represented in the House of Commons, as evidenced in table 3. Table 3: Combined Vote Initially Expressed Vote Plus Leaner with DNK/Ref Excluded from Calculation % The Liberals led by Jean Chretien 50 The Party led by Stockwell Day 11 The Progressive Conservatives led by Joe Clark 11 The NDP led by Alexa McDonough 8 IN QUEBEC: The Bloc Quebecois led by Gilles Duceppe 10 DON T PROMPT but record Other 10 Percentage DNK/Refused from final percent calculation 30 3

4 Explaining Day s Weakness Public Condemns Day s Intelligence, Blame Day s Media Skills and Media Double Standards Canadians were asked to account for Day s problems. Both the public as a whole and voters in particular tend to concede that Day is thoughtful but believe that has yet to learn how to deal effectively with journalists or political opponents, as evidenced in table 4. Among the public, 52% share this view compared to 65% among voters. While voters and the electorate as a whole share a jaundiced assessment of Day s skills in debating or dealing with the media, they divide sharply in their perceptions of his mastery of the issues. A plurality of the electorate (40%) takes the view that Day just does not understand the issues but only 14% of voters agree. Among voters, an extraordinary 70% disagree with the criticism that Day does not understand the issues. The electorate as a whole and voters also disagree about the role of the press. By an almost 2:1 margin, voters agree that the real problem is that the press have a double standard and are prejudiced against him. Meanwhile, among the electorate as a whole, those who disagree that the media have a double standard outnumber almost 3:2 those who agree. Table 4: Please tell me if you agree or disagree with each of the following opinions on Stockwell Day s leadership problems [rotate] Mr. Day is thoughtful but he hasn t yet learned how to deal with journalists and political opponents Mr. Day just doesn t understand the issues The real problem is that the press have a double standard and are prejudiced against him Agree Disagree DNK agree voters disagree voters DNK

5 Given the electorate s rejection of Mr. Day, it is intriguing that as many as 30% of the electorate nonetheless believes that he has suffered at the hands of journalists operating by a double standard. Indeed, the proportion of the public who believe that Day has been a victim of biased media is greater than the proportion who would have him remain in office 30% vs. 22%, respectively. Methodology The national representative sample of 500 Canadian adults was interviewed May 9-10, Samples of this size are deemed accurate to within 4.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The principal investigator was Dr. Conrad Winn ( ext. 40). 5