Ontario Provincial Election Report for Global TV, National Post, Ottawa Citizen and Windsor Star

Transcription

1 Provincial Election Report for Global TV, National Post, Ottawa Citizen and Windsor Star COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research Toronto / Ottawa May 21, 2003

2 Introduction and Dividing Up the Stories The principal conclusion is that Ernie Eves is very far behind Dalton McGuinty but has a plausible chance of catching up because of the popularity of his platform, because his personal credibility equals that of the Liberal leader, and because voters feel that he is the party leader most apt to be Premier after the next election. The following is one way of breaking up the content of the poll into three days of newspaper stories: The horserace on Friday, including McGuinty s early lead, the popularity of the Eves platform, a dead heat if the platform were the issue, equal respect for Eves and McGuinty, higher expectation that Eves would actually win, a wide range of election issues and low polarization (unlike the B.C. election), and equal or higher performance scores for a Liberal than PC government on all issues except taxes; Where Ontarians stand on the issues on Saturday, including their generally rightwing position on taxes vs. leftwing position on spending (more leftwing/less rightwing than BCers), divided opinion on more choice in healthcare and education, strongly rightwing support for funding of independent schools, strongly rightwing support for channelling daycare money to parents of pre-schoolers so that they can make their own choices about daycare; Premiers and the Zoo on Monday, including the popularity of Paul Martin, the equal popularity of Eves and Harris among PCs, the high popularity of Bob Rae among New Democrats even though Rae may have left the party in a policy dispute, the owl and the lion as ideal Premiers and the snake as the counter-ideal, and the humorous animal attributions of different voter segments (e.g. Eves as a fox to friend and foe alike, McGuinty as a snake or monkey to Tories, and Hampton as a monkey to Tories); A sidebar Saturday or Monday on Profiling, including majority acceptance of profiling to fight SARS, terrorism, violent crime, and even unspecified crime with Tory voters the most supportive and New Democrats the least supportive. 1

3 Eves Platform Could Make the Election a Horserace The Progressive Conservatives appear to face almost insurmountable obstacles to re-election the Liberals lead 51% to 35% for the Tories, as shown in table 1. But a Liberal victory is not a slam dunk. Table 1: Vote Intentions (25% DNK/REF/WON T VOTE excluded) % The Liberals led by Dalton McGuinty 51 The Progressive Conservatives led by Ernie Eves 35 The NDP led by Howard Hampton 11 Unprompted: Green party 2 Unprompted: Other 1 For the Liberals, the main sources of optimism are their immense lead in vote intentions and the fact that a Liberal government is expected to equal or outperform a Tory government in many areas, to be discussed in detail in the ensuing section. The Tory situation is far from desperate. Their reasons for optimism rest on the popularity of their platform, and equal vote intentions for the two parties if the Tory platform were the basis of the vote respect for Eves personally, equal to McGuinty somewhat greater expectation that Eves will be elected than McGuinty. As shown in table 2, voters have good things to say about all four of the main planks in the platform mortgage payment deductibility, banning teacher strikes, mandatory municipal referenda before raising taxes, requiring homeless people to live in shelters, and abolishing mandatory retirement at age 65. Only 17% of Ontarians say that none of these would make them feel more favourable to the Tories. Liberal and NDP voters are not as enthused as Tories about any of the Tory ideas but sizeable minorities are nonetheless more favourable to the Tories as a result of all of these proposals, especially mortgage deductibility. If these were the election issues, the Liberals and Tories would be in a dead heat 45% for the Liberals vs. 44% for the Tories, as shown in table 3. 2

4 Table 2: Q8. As you may know, it looks as if the Progressive Conservatives under Ernie Eves might, if re-elected, bring about the following 5 changes... Which of these possibilities, if any, makes you feel especially favourable to the Conservatives... Deduct their mortgage interest payments Ban teacher strikes Require homeless people to live in shelters Municipalities referendum before raising taxes Abolish mandatory retirement at age None of these DNK/REFUSED Table 3: Q9b If these were the key election issues, which party would you vote for? COMBINED VOTE 17% DNK/REF/WON T VOTE EXCLUDED The Progressive Conservatives led by Ernie Eves The Liberals led by Dalton McGuinty The NDP led by Howard Hampton Green Party * Other * The Tories can also be optimistic because voters are just as inclined to see Eves as making the best leader of the province as they do McGuinty, as shown in table 4. Furthermore, more (38%) believe that Eves will succeed himself than be replaced by McGuinty (30%), as shown in table 5. 3

5 Table 4: Q4. [ALL RESPONDENTS] Irrespective of his party or policies, which of the three leaders [ROTATE] Ernie Eves, Dalton McGuinty, or Howard Hampton would make the best leader of the province? Ernie Eves Dalton McGuinty Howard Hampton UNPROMPTED: DNK/REFUSED Table 5: Q5. Which do you think will be Premier after the election? Ernie Eves Dalton McGuinty Howard Hampton UNPROMPTED: DNK/REFUSED Future Performance Liberal Government Would Be Inferior to PC Government on Taxes, Equal on Crime and Growth, and Be Superior on Most Other Issues Respondents were asked to compare the performance of future Liberal and PC governments in respect of cutting taxes, ethics, delivering education, and many other issues. For the Tories, the good news is that their evaluation scores are dramatically higher than those often experienced by two or multi-term governments. The Tory performance scores in tables 6 and 7 are hugely higher than the performance scores given by British Columbians to the outgoing NDP government in their province, as shown in table 8. The PC party can also take comfort in the fact that Tory voters think very highly of their party. Tories assign consistently higher performance scores to a Tory than a Liberal government, as shown in table 7. Tory voters even see their party as outperforming the Liberals on Liberal issues like education and healthcare. Hence, the PC party has little to fear with respect to the possibility of losing any of its base of voters. 4

6 The problem for the PC party of is that PC governments are rarely seen as outperforming Liberal governments among the electorate as a whole. The PCs are seen as outperforming the Liberals on one issue taxes. But the Tories are not seen as outperforming the Liberals on the traditionally rightwing issues of economic growth, standing up to Ottawa, or fighting crime. For their part, the Liberals are seen as providing better government in respect of education, health, the environment, ethics, and in other respects. Table 6: Q6. Thinking to the future, please grade how a Liberal or Progressive Conservative government would probably perform with respect to each of the following goals using a 7 point scale where 7 is the highest score. First of all, what score would you give the Liberals with respect to [ROTATE STIMULI FROM RESPONDENT TO RESPONDENT AND ROTATE ORDER OF LIBERAL AND PC SCORING FROM RESPONDENT TO RESPONDENT] Mean DNK Cutting taxes Liberals PC Achieving economic growth Liberals PC Ethics and personal integrity Liberals PC Competent management Liberals PC Delivering education Liberals PC Delivering healthcare Liberals PC Protecting the province from medical crises like SARS or West Nile Liberals PC

7 Achieving a clean environment Mean DNK Liberals PC Improving the crime situation Liberals PC Contributing to your own or your family s sense of wellbeing Liberals PC Protecting s interests against the federal government Liberals PC Table 7: Average Grade Scores for Liberal and Tory Governments Assigned by PC, Liberal, and NDP Voters All Ontarians Cutting taxes Liberals PC Achieving economic growth Liberals PC Ethics and personal integrity Liberals PC Competent management Liberals PC Delivering education 6

8 All Ontarians Liberals PC Delivering healthcare Liberals PC Protecting the province from medical crises like SARS or West Nile Liberals PC Achieving a clean environment Liberals PC Improving the crime situation Liberals PC Contributing to your own or your family s sense of wellbeing Liberals PC Protecting s interests against the federal government Liberals PC Table 8: British Columbia Provincial Election (April, 2001): Hypothetical Liberal and NDP Governments Liberal Govt. performance NDP Govt. performance Cutting taxes Achieving economic growth Ethics and personal integrity Competent management

9 Delivering education Delivering healthcare Protecting unionised workers Achieving a clean environment Improving the crime situation The province is relatively homogeneous in assigning higher performance scores to a future Liberal than a future Tory government except for southern outside the GTA. In southern, the Liberal lead abates. The Mood of Ontarians Good Time for an Election Ontarians see the election as appropriate in timing, as shown in the accompanying matrix. This finding means that the Tories have not offended the populace by talk of calling an election. Table 9: Q1. As you know, the media have been talking about a provincial election. On a 7-point scale where 7 means it s a very good idea to have an election and a 1, there s no real need for an election, how do you feel about having an election? Mean DNK Almost Every Issue Matters is Not B.C., Where the Economy and NDP Incompetence Were the Issues Asked what factor will most influence their vote, Ontarians point to a wide range of issues from the economy to health, education, parties, and leadership. Ontarians have not formed a consensus about what the election is about, as shown in table 10. In the B.C. election, by contrast, there were three main issues the economy, the NDP government s poorly perceived record, and healthcare, as shown in table 10. differs from B.C. in having far more issues on voters minds, in placing a lot more emphasis on education (16% vs. 5% in B.C.), and especially in placing more emphasis on leadership as an issue (20% vs. almost nil in B.C.). Of special interest is that 10% of Ontarians volunteer that their vote will depend either on the party platforms 8

10 or on their assessment of the party platforms in light of how they viewed the past performance of the government and opposition parties. Table 10: Q3. Thinking of how you re likely to vote, please tell me what factor most affects how you ll probably vote? [DON T PROMPT BUT SELECT RESPONSE IF THE CATEGORY FITS OR OTHERWISE WRITE IN THE OPEN-ENDED RESPONSE] All ALL B.C. Economy Category Total Growth; NA Jobs NA Tax cuts, make govt smaller or more efficient NA Mortgage deductibility-for it * NA Tourism-protect NA Transport-improve highways or streets * NA Hydro-specify NA Health category Improve in general NA Spend more NA SARS, West Nile, Anthrax etc NA Other specify NA Education category Education in general--improve or protect public education NA Education anti-teacher, prevent strikes or control the NA teachers Education-pro-teacher, protect their salaries * NA Education-proindependent/private schools, NA protect private educ tax credit Environment Category Pro-environment NA Anti-environment NA Other specify NA 9

11 All ALL B.C. Social Issues Category * Crime-fight it, tougher sentences, crack down in illegal immigrants, illegal use of * NA OHIP, terrorists Ethnicity--Protect, fight racism Immigration Reduce immigration, immigration sponsorship by welfare recipients, free legal aid for immigrants/refugees NA Homosexuality-protect gay marriage, enhance gay rights NA Homosexuality-prohibit gay marriage, reduce gay rights NA Seniors improve rights for seniors NA Poverty NA Parties and Government Record Category Pro-Tory, Pro-Tory record, pro- Mike Harris, pro-common Sense Revolution NA Anti-Tory, Anti-Tory record, Anti-Mike Harris NA Pro-Liberal * Anti-Liberal * * Pro-NDP * Anti-NDP * Leadership * Leaders or leadership in * general, Integrity Eves-like * 2 Dislike * McGuinty-like * * Dislike * * 1 Virtually all the anti-bc NDP references related to corruption, integrity, or poor performance in general. 2 B.C. voters made very few personal references to the B.C. party leaders, 10

12 All ALL B.C. Hampton-like * * Dislike * Depends on local candidates * Depends on the party platforms and performance * Unprompted: Other Unprompted: DNK/Refused Tories Strong on the Economy, Liberals Strong on Social Issues Tory and Liberal voters divide along left-right lines in the issues that matter to them. As shown in table 10, Tory voters place special emphasis on the economy as the key factor in their voting while Liberals place more emphasis on social issues, notably education, and on party-partisan issues including the past performance of the Tory government. Polarization is Only Semi-Intense Respondents were asked if there were any party that they definitely would not vote for. They were also asked if their own choice of party were a positive choice for that party or a rejection of another party. On balance, polarization seems moderate, and most people intend to vote for a given party rather than against its opponent. The Liberals have the lowest rate of rejection only 12% would never vote Liberal, as shown in table 11. Though much larger, the 33% who would never vote Tory are not an insurmountable barrier to a Tory victory. Table 11: Q2C. [ALL EXCEPT THOSE WHO WON T VOTE]: Is there a party that you d definitely NOT vote for? [PROMPT]: Which party would you definitely not vote for? 14% DNK/REFUSED EXCLUDED FROM CALCULATION ALL % PCs Lib NDP The Progressive Conservatives led by Ernie Eves The NDP led by Howard Hampton

13 No, would vote for any party The Liberals led by Dalton McGuinty Unprompted: Green Party Unprompted: Family * Unprompted: Other Table 12: Q2D. [ASK ONLY THOSE WHO INDICATED A VOTE OR LEAN] Thinking of how you intend to vote, do you intend to vote for [insert] mainly because you re voting FOR this party or AGAINST another? [IF LATTER, PROMPT FOR WHICH ONE] All PCs Lib NDP Voting FOR this party Voting AGAINST this party DNK / REFUSED The high rejection of the Tories in table 11 is paralleled by a high anti-tory attitude revealed in table 12. Table 12 shows that a huge minority (37%) of the Liberal vote is driven by hostility to another party, in practice mainly the Tories. The anti-tory motivation of many Liberal voters represents a challenge as well as an opportunity for the Tories. On the one hand, it shows that Tory conduct in power has produced a fair amount of alienation. On the other hand, it shows that the Tories can influence the election campaign to a considerable degree insofar as voters aligning themselves with the Liberals have done so to reject the Tories rather than embrace the Liberals. Given this evidence, Ernie Eves conduct in the campaign is apt to have more of an impact on the outcome than Dalton McGuinty s. Where Ontarians Stand on the Issues Rightwing on Taxes, Leftwing on Spending voters show themselves to be rightwing on taxes insofar as they believe that tax cutting is a priority. Scoring 5-7 on the 7-point scale, majority (55%) agree that needs above all to cut taxes to attract business and boost the provincial economy, as shown in table 13. Yet, when asked about spending more on healthcare and education, clear majorities favour such increased spending, as shown in the same table. Predictably, Tory voters are the most desirous of cutting taxes, but Liberals and NewDems are not unconcerned, as shown in table 14. Thus the tax issue could help 12

14 Eves cut into the Liberal-NDP vote. Meanwhile, Liberals and especially NewDems are the most favourable to increased spending on healthcare and education. Tory voters are not unalterably opposed to such increased spending, making some of them potentially susceptible to Liberal entreaties on the issue. Table 13: Q7. Turning to a slightly different subject, please tell me if you agree or disagree with each of the following opinions about government policy and the situation in ONTARIO. Please use a 7-point scale where 7 means agree and 1, the opposite. [DON T PROMPT BUT RECORD DNK/NA ROTATE] Q7A. ONTARIO needs above all to cut taxes to attract business and boost the provincial economy Q7B. To make healthcare spending more efficient, the government needs to allow more opportunities for competition and more opportunities for the private sector to provide services Q7C. To improve healthcare the government needs to spend a lot more even if taxes go up as a result Q7D. To control spending and improve quality in education, the government needs to allow more opportunity for many kinds of independent schools to operate in free competition with the public school system Q7E. To improve education the government needs to spend a lot more even if taxes go up as a result Mean DNK

15 Table 14: Comparisons of Means Across Voters Q7A. ONTARIO needs above all to cut taxes to attract business and boost the provincial economy Q7B. To make healthcare spending more efficient, the government needs to allow more opportunities for competition and more opportunities for the private sector to provide services Q7C. To improve healthcare the government needs to spend a lot more even if taxes go up as a result Q7D. To control spending and improve quality in education, the government needs to allow more opportunity for many kinds of independent schools to operate in free competition with the public school system Q7E. To improve education the government needs to spend a lot more even if taxes go up as a result All PC Lib NDP Table 15: British Columbia Provincial Election (April, 2001): Policy Positions B.C. needs above all to cut taxes to attract business and boost the provincial economy To make healthcare spending more efficient, the government needs to allow more opportunities for competition and more opportunities for the private sector to provide services To control spending and improve quality in education, the government needs to allow more opportunity for many kinds of independent schools to operate in Mean DNK

16 free competition with the public school system Some Receptivity to Free Market Options in Health Respondents were asked about spending more on health even if this meant higher taxes, and they were also asked about opening up healthcare to more private sector competition. As shown in table 13, Ontarians are more receptive to increased spending than to a greater role for private sector suppliers. But the province is not opposed to more private sector options the province is split down the middle with Tory voters supportive and NDP voters resolutely opposed. Leftwing in Favouring More Money for the Public System; Centrist in the Public s Divided Opinion about Having More Independent Schools Competing with the Public System; Rightwing in Favouring Greater Tax Support for Independent Schooling Attitudes towards more spending on education and more room for competition with the public schools parallel attitudes to issues in the health sectors to the extent that these attitudes are analogous. As in the case of health, Ontarians views about education cut across the ideological spectrum. As shown in tables 13 and 14, Ontarians are leftwing on the spending issue in that they are receptive to increased spending on education, ideologically centrist on the school choice issue in that they are divided about whether school choice should be fostered by encouraging the development of more independent schools operating outside the public system, and rightwing on the subsidy issue in that they want the government to pay for more than 50% of the cost of independent schooling. Respondents were asked to indicate how much of the cost 3 of independent schools should be borne by taxpayers. Altogether 60% of the province favours some financial support for the independent schools slightly higher among Liberals and PCs and slightly lower among New Democrats. Among the majority favouring some support, 3 As you know, has three broad types of schools Roman Catholic and public schools, which both receive full government funding, and independent schools, which receive some funding. Taxpayers pay taxes for education irrespective of whether they have children or where they educate their children. The independent schools teach the standard curriculum in a different way or emphasize an area of interest like sports, culture, or religion. In your opinion, what proportion from zero to 100% of the cost of independent education should be paid for by government? 15

17 there is a strong cross-party consensus that the amount should approximate 56% of the actual cost of the independent education 53% among NDP voters, 55% among Liberals, and 59% among Tories. to the Left of B.C. BCers were certainly more rightwing in their opinions at the time of their last election than are Ontarians today perhaps a reaction against their particular experience of NDP governance. By comparing tables 13 and 15, one can see that British Columbians were more supportive of tax cuts and of choice in education than Ontarians are today while opinion about healthcare choice is about the same. Family Issues Public Leftwing on Politicians Privacy and Rightwing on Daycare Spending Politicians Deserve a Private Life Ontarians are long past the era when a politician s private life matters to voters and can build or destroy political careers. Respondents were asked why such matters seemed to be less important than they once were. As shown in table 16, the predominant feeling is simply that politicians have a right to a private life. The Hilary Clinton factor fear of a politician s wife acquiring too much power does not appear to play a role in the minds of Ontarians. Table 16: Q10. Which of the following explanations do you think best accounts for why voters don t care as much as they did in the past about the spouses of politicians? [ROTATE CHECK ONE] Politicians have a right to a private life Family life is less stable than in the past Voters don t want spouses having too much influence DNK

18 Ontarians to the Right of the Tories on Daycare As reported above in this report, Ontarians appear to be slightly to the right of the Tory government on the subject of funding independent schools. A majority favour such funding. The public is likewise to the right of the Tories on funding daycare. The public believes that pre-school children fare better in the home of a family relative than in a daycare setting, as shown in table 17. The public also believes that government should assign daycare money directly to parents instead of to daycare institutions, as shown in table 18. The strongest reservations about doing so are among NDP voters, but even they are divided on the matter rather than opposed. Table 17: Q12. Suppose it s not possible for a parent to stay home to take care of an infant or pre-school child. Would it then be best for the child to be cared for by a relative of the family or in an institutional daycare setting? By a relative of the family In an institutional daycare setting In a home daycare setting - VOLUNTEERED DNK/REFUSED Table 18: Q13. Which of the following opinions is closer to your own [ROTATE] Governments should give money to daycare so that it costs less or governments should give money to parents so that parents can better afford whatever care they themselves decide is best for their own children? Governments should give money to parents Governments should give money to daycare DNK/REFUSED

19 Profiling Majority Support; More Support to Fight Violent Crime, Terrorism, and SARS than to Fight Crime in General Respondents were asked whether profiling should be forbidden, optional, or mandatory in campaigns against crime, violent crime, medical situations like SARS, and international terrorism. Majorities favour profiling in all instances but least in the case of ordinary crime, as shown in tables Tory voters are consistently the most supportive, NewDems the least. Tories are especially inclined to require authorities to use profiling in the case of medical crises and international terrorism. NDP voters are especially opposed to profiling in the case of crime. Table 19: Q14. I d like to turn to another issue, the use of profiling by governments. Let s take, for example, the use of: [ROTATE] Q14A. Profiling by national origin or race to deal with medical situations like SARS. Should government definitely use profiling, be allowed to use profiling when it feels this to be necessary, or be forbidden to use profiling at all? Be forbidden to use profiling at all Be allowed to use profiling when feels this to be necessary Definitely use profiling DNK/REFUSED Table 20: Q14B. How about profiling by religion and national origin to combat international terrorism? Be forbidden to use profiling at all Be allowed to use profiling when feels this to be necessary Definitely use profiling DNK/REFUSED

20 Table 21: Q14C. How about profiling by race and national origin to combat crime? Be forbidden to use profiling at all Be allowed to use profiling when feels this to be necessary Definitely use profiling DNK/REFUSED Table 22: Q14D. How about profiling by age and gender to combat violent crime? Be forbidden to use profiling at all Be allowed to use profiling when feels this to be necessary Definitely use profiling DNK/REFUSED Leadership Grading the Leaders Eves and McGuinty in a Dead Heat with Paul Martin in the Lead Respondents were asked to grade on 100 point, school-type report cards five present, past, and aspiring Premiers along with Paul Martin. Martin tops the class with a C grade (64%), followed by David Peterson, Ernie Eves, and Dalton McGuinty with D s (in the 50 s), and Bob Rae and Mike Harris with apparent failures, as shown in table 23. Party segments differ in grading practices. Tories grade Eves and Harris more generously while New Democrats grade Rae more generously. Indeed Harris and Rae 19

21 are the only ones to earn B grades (70% each) from their respective political constituencies. Liberal voters do not have the same passion for their own people as do Tories and New Democrats for their own. For example, Liberals give McGuinty a 61% while Tories give Eves and Harris, respectively, 69% and 70% and New Democrats give Rae a 70%. The lowest grades are for Harris among New Democrats (34%), Harris among Liberals (39%), and Rae among Tories (43%). Table 23: Q16. The following is a list of people who have either been Premier, want to be a Premier, or are well known. Please score each of them for their past or potential performance as Premier, using a 100 point school report-type scale where 100 is the highest possible grade [ROTATE] [NOTE TO INTERVIEWER: IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT KNOW OR RECOGNIZE THE PERSON, RECORD AS DNK] Paul Martin David Peterson Ernie Eves Dalton McGuinty Bob Rae Mike Harris Animals for Premier the Owl is in the Lead but a Communications Campaign Could Put the Lion in First Place; Don t Elect a Snake or Donkey Respondents were asked to thinking creatively and humorously about the kinds of animals that ought to be Premier. As shown in table 23, Ontarians are inclined to the owl and lion. Tories and Liberals feel this way especially. For their part, New Democrats are especially enthusiastic about the owl while the lion falls into third position, surpassed by the elephant. The supplanting of the lion in the minds of NDP voters may reflect the pacifism and anti-militarism of the NDP program and political culture. As for animals that ought not to be Premier, the public zeroes in on the snake above all, followed by the donkey and fox, as shown in table

22 Of all the animals, the fox is the animal whose meaning is the most ambiguous singled out by 10% as best suited to be Premier (table 23) and by another 10% as least suited (table 24). 21

23 Table 23: Q17A. Changing topics slightly and thinking creatively, even humorously, suppose you had a choice of animals to elect as Premier of the province. Which of the following animals would you most want as Premier? Owl Lion Fox Elephant Monkey Giraffe Donkey Snake DNK/REFUSED Table 24: Q17B. Which of the following animals would you least want as Premier? Snake Donkey Fox Owl * Lion Elephant Monkey Giraffe DNK/REFUSED Eves A Fox, Owl, or Lion to Tories; a Fox, Snake, or Monkey to Liberals; a Fox or Snake for New Democrats As reported above, Ontarians are more inclined to foresee Eves than McGuinty becoming Premier, and they respect Eves as much as they do McGuinty. Yet, they tend to see Eves as resembling an animal they care little for, the snake, and another animal about which their attitudes are inconsistent, the fox. 22

24 Eves core constituency Tories think of him in terms of animals that they value. Eves reminds Tories of the lion, owl, and, intriguingly, the fox. Liberals and NDPers also see Eves in terms of the fox. Presumably the Tories who associate Eves with the fox are thinking of the fox s virtues, e.g. shrewdness, while the opposition voters may be thinking of the fox s treacherous character. Table 25: Q18A. Which of these animals does Ernie Eves most remind you of? Fox Snake Owl Donkey Monkey Lion Elephant Giraffe DNK/REFUSED Table 26: Q18B. Which does Dalton McGuinty most remind you of? Fox Giraffe Monkey Owl Donkey Elephant Snake Lion DNK/REFUSED McGuinty A Fox, Giraffe, or Owl to Grits; a Snake or Donkey to Tories; Almost Any Animal to NewDems Ontarians do not yet have a sufficient sense of McGuinty s character to associate an animal with him. A third feel unable to suggest an animal. Those who do associate 23

25 him with an animal make widely divergent choices, as shown in table 26. Tory voters feel particularly unkind to him with their largest share associating him with the snake (16%) or donkey (15%). Hampton An Owl or Elephant to NewDems, a Monkey or Donkey to Tories, Almost Any Animal to Libs Ontarians feel even less able to associate Hampton with an animal 44% say that they don t know which animal he reminds them of. New Democrats have the least problem doing so; only 26% don t know. Among New Democrats, their party leader is associated above all with the elephant and owl. Among Ontarians as a whole, he is reminiscent of the monkey and many other animals. Table 27: Q18C. Which does Howard Hampton most remind you of? Monkey Fox Donkey Owl Elephant Giraffe Snake Lion DNK/REFUSED Methodology A representative sample of n>500 eligible voters was interviewed May 16-18, Samples of this size are deemed accurate to within 4.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The study was undertaken for Global Television, the National Post, the Ottawa Citizen, and the Windsor Star. The British Columbia findings were from a survey conducted by COMPAS for BCTV, the Vancouver Sun, and the Victoria Times-Colonist just before the spring, 2001 B.C. election was called. The principal investigator on both studies was Conrad Winn Ph.D. ( or ). 24

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