Support for Kyoto Fades Strong Demand for More Consultation

Transcription

1 Support for Kyoto Fades Strong Demand for More Consultation CIBC/Chamber Weekly CEO/Business Leader Poll by COMPAS in the Financial Post for Publication September 16, 2002 COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research

2 Introduction While business leaders believe that the federal government is more likely than ever to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, support for doing so has almost evaporated. Opposition to the Protocol has not grown but the middle ground of uncertainty has grown substantially. Business leaders feel strongly that Ottawa ought not to finalize the decision without far more consultation with the provinces, business, and the public. These are the key findings from the current web-survey of CEOs and other business leaders conducted by COMPAS on behalf of the National Post under sponsorship of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and CIBC Small Business. Ottawa More Likely than Ever to Ratify Kyoto Protocol But Ottawa Should Not Make the Decision Alone A week following the Prime Minister s announcement, respondents feel that ratifying the Kyoto accord is more of a reality than it was before. On a 100-point scale, business leaders believe that the probability of Canada signing on is 67%, as shown in table 1 dramatically up from 49% probability in the spring. Although respondents feel that the likelihood of ratification has increased greatly, they feel strongly that the federal government should be consulting the provinces a lot more and not be making the decision on its own. An extraordinary 89% of respondents feel it is vital for all provinces to be involved in decision-making, and 80% believe that both the public and business must be consulted far more given the potentially enormous impact the treaty could have on the economy (table 2). In a similar spirit, the overwhelming majority of the business leaders interviewed feel that Canada is not ready to make a final decision; 79% believe additional research is necessary (table 2). Table 1: As you may know, the Kyoto Protocol or treaty would commit Canada to cut emissions in 2010 to 1990 levels. On a 100-point probability scale where 100 means Canada will definitely ratify the treaty and 0, definitely not, how probable is it that Canada will sign on? May Sept Probability that Canada will ratify the treaty DNK/Refused

3 Table 2: As you may know, Chretien announced that Ottawa alone would decide on Kyoto. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following opinions about the Prime Minister s decision. Please use a 7-point scale where 7 means strongly agree, and 1 the opposite. [ROTATE] It is vital that all provinces remain involved in the decisionmaking process because they will all be affected by the outcome Both the public and business need to be consulted far more before a final decision is made given the potentially enormous impact on the economy Canada needs a lot more research about the impact of Kyoto on our economy and well being before a final decision is made The Prime Minister should be trusted to make a decision that represents Canada s best interests Mean DNK Support for Kyoto Falls Sharply Middle-Ground Expands Relentlessly The Ralph Klein-led, province-inspired opposition to Kyoto remains a constant plurality 42% in winter, 45% in spring, and 41% today. Meanwhile, support for Kyoto is falling substantially. Last winter, 28% supported the protocol, this number dropped to 17% in the spring and 12% today (table 3). Business leaders uneasiness about Canada s making any immediate decisions is also evident in the increase of respondents who feel that both advocates and opponents of the protocol have their merits. Table 3 demonstrates that although the number of 2

4 opponents still outweighs the number of advocates (41% vs. 12%), the number of business leaders who are in the middle has steadily grown to 42% since February. The middling position, that both sides have their merits, is the position experiencing growth up consistently and dramatically from 28% in winter to 33% in spring and 42% today. The bottom line is that opponents of the Kyoto Protocol are not gaining ground but supporters are indeed losing ground. The growth of the middle ground is consistent with pervasive evidence from the survey that business leaders want the federal government to engage in far more consultation with provincial governments, business, and the public at large. Table 3: Advocates of Kyoto say that the treaty would combat global warming at a moderate economic cost while its opponents believe that the treaty is an unworkable solution that would seriously damage Canada s economy, especially because the U.S. will not sign it. Would you say that [PROVIDE ALTERNATIVE REVERSE ORDERS BUT DO NOT FULLY ROTATE] Feb * May Sept The advocates are entirely right The advocates are largely right Both sides have their merits The provinces led by Premier Klein are largely right The provinces led by Premier Klein are entirely right DNK/Refused *Note: The response categories in Week 18 (Feb. 25) were: The Prime Minister is entirely right, The Prime Minister is largely right, Both sides have their merits, The provinces led by Premier Klein are largely right, and The provinces led by Premier Klein are entirely right Little Change in How Business Views the Pluses and Minuses of Kyoto Possible Business Opportunities the Main Appeal of Kyoto Business leaders continue to be only slightly persuaded by opinions in support of Kyoto. The most persuasive argument is that the treaty would lead to increased business for providers of clean fossil fuel alternatives, followed by concerns about global warming and the need for industrial countries to take serious environmental action, as outlined in table 4. Canadian CEOs and business leaders however do not 3

5 think that Kyoto is moderate or the least that we should do, nor do they think that the treaty would make the world a safer place by reducing the demand for oil and therefore the power of untrustworthy oil-producing states like Iraq and Saudi Arabia (table 4). Comments from those who support the treaty follow: Although Bush did not agree to ratify the treaty, I think it is important that we do all we can as a nation to help stop the awful damage being done to our environment by greenhouse gases. I think that Canada must take action on global warming, but that the solutions have to be developed with the consultation of the provinces. There are excellent technologies available to reduce emissions but these come at a cost. Combining a program of cleaning up emissions and, over time, making the transition to other, cleaner energy sources will be more effective. 4

6 Table 4: Please score each of the following messages in support of Kyoto on a 7 point scale where 7 means you are very persuaded and 1, the opposite. [ROTATE INTERNALLY AND WITH Q3] The treaty would lead to increased business for providers of clean, fossil fuel alternatives Global warming is occurring with dangerous speed and threatens coastal habitation Without Kyoto, the major industrial countries would not take serious environmental action Kyoto would make the world a safer place by reducing the demand for oil and therefore the power of oil-producing states like Iraq and Saudi Arabia Far from being too radical, Kyoto is moderate, the least that we should do Mean DNK Sept 13, Sept 13, May 17, Feb 25, Sept 13, May 17, Feb 25, Sept 13, May 17, Sept 13, May 17,

7 Kyoto Harmful to the Canadian Economy, Especially Without the Inclusion of the U.S. Business leaders continue to be opposed to Kyoto mainly because it would put Canada at a terrible competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis the U.S., which is not signing on, as shown in table 5. There has been a large increase since May in the proportion of respondents who oppose signing the treaty because a number of other energyexporting countries have no intention of doing the same up from 49% in winter to 53% in spring and 65% today (table 5). Respondents are also opposed because they feel that we need a "made-in- Canada" solution similar to the U.S. plan that would put more emphasis on technological development and tax breaks; they believe Kyoto would seriously harm the Canadian economy and standard of living; and they question whether the treaty would actually improve environmental conditions (table 5). Many business leaders who are in opposition to Kyoto offered supplementary comments: Without the U.S. ratification of Kyoto, Canada's participation works to the detriment of Canadian business interests, while having no significant impact on the environmental concerns posed on a global level. The Chretien government should be open to a more constructive process - a "Made in Canada" solution. The Kyoto protocol would seriously damage our economy, while actually accelerating emissions elsewhere in the world. Canada must recognize that Kyoto is not just another environmental treaty. The challenge of meeting the targets dramatically affects every part of the economy. Unless the federal government develops a realistic plan to address greenhouse gas reductions, ratification is a hollow gesture aimed more for looking good internationally than really dealing with the issue. The fact of the matter is that the available science does not support the underlying premise that global warming is caused by human action and is harmful to the planet. 6

8 Table 5: Please score each of the following messages for opposing Kyoto on a 7 point scale where 7 means you are very persuaded and 1, the opposite. [ROTATE] A number of other energyexporting countries have no intention of signing Kyoto Ratifying Kyoto would put Canada at a terrible competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis the U.S., which is not signing We need a "made-in-canada" solution similar to the U.S. plan that would put more emphasis on technological development and tax breaks, with less ambitious targets for lowering greenhouse gas emissions As several business associations have stated, Kyoto would seriously harm the Canadian economy and standard of living, costing billions of dollars each year Mean DNK Sept 13, May 17, Feb 25, Sept 13, May 17, Feb 25, Sept 13, May 17, Sept 13, May 17, Feb 25,

9 It is debateable as to whether or not the treaty would actually improve environmental conditions Mean DNK Sept 13, Methodology The National Post/COMPAS web-survey of CEOs and leaders of small, medium, and large corporations and among executives of the local and national Chambers of Commerce was conducted September 10-12, Because medium and small companies are more numerous in the economy and hence among Chamber membership, actual respondents are drawn more from these strata than from the stratum of the largest companies. Because of the small population of CEOs and business leaders from which the sample was drawn, the study can be considered more accurate than comparably sized general public studies. In studies of the general public, surveys of n=186 are deemed accurate to within approximately 7 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The principal and co-investigators on this study are Conrad Winn, Ph.D. and Jennifer McLeod. 8