NDP Leads Going Into the Final Week, but the Gap is Narrowing

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1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE NDP Leads Going Into the Final Week, but the Gap is Narrowing Weaver most popular leader by far Toronto, May 1 st In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll among 1067 British Columbia voters, amongst those and decided and leaning, the NDP (37%) has an eight point lead over the governing Liberals (29%). The Green Party has the support of a quarter (24%) of respondents, with (7%) saying they are supporting the Conservatives, and (3%) saying they support another party. If the election were held today, the NDP would secure 47 seats, the Liberals 34 seats, the Green Party 4, with 2 going to other parties. Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those 34 or younger (40%), (38%), or (38%), females (40%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (44%), $60,000-$80,000 (44%), or $80,000-$100,000, (43%) with a post-graduate degree (43%), and living on Vancouver Island (39%) or Vancouver/Lower Mainland (36%). Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those aged 65 and over (41%), males (32%), and the most wealthy (35%). Respondents most likely to say they support the Green Party include those 34 and younger (30%) or (31%), the least wealthy (30%) or earning $20,000- $40,000 (28%), and living on Vancouver Island (28%) and Interior North (25%). Weaver most popular leader, Clark ticks up, Horgan ticks down Just over a quarter (28%) approve of the job Christy Clark is doing as premier, 6- in-10 (62%), and (11%) don t know. Premier Clark s net favourable score (approve disapprove) is -34, slightly better than the beginning of April (April 5: -36) Just under a third (31%) approve of John Horgan s job as the leader of the opposition, a similar proportion (34%) disapprove, and (35%) don t know. Horgan s net favourable score is -3, down five points since early April (April 5: +2). 4-in-10 (42%) approve of Andrew Weaver s job as the leader of the Green Party. (17%) disapprove, and (40%) don t know. Weaver s net favourable score is +25, an increase of 11 points since early April (April 5 th : +14). Best Premier tied between Horgan and Clark A quarter (25%) of respondents say, regardless of their party affiliation, that John Horgan would make the best Premier of BC, which is a statistical tie with Christy 1 "We re beginning to see a considerable increase in support for the Green Party, and the favourability of their popular leader Andrew Weaver is well ahead of either of his main opponents. What remains to be seen, however, is how this surge in Green Party support will affect the final count on election day," said Dr. of Forum Research.

2 Clark (24%). Andrew Weaver (21%) is third, just behind the pair. (16%) say they don t know, with (15%) saying none of the above would make the best premier. "We re beginning to see a considerable increase in support for the Green Party, and the favourability of their popular leader Andrew Weaver is well ahead of either of his main opponents. What remains to be seen, however, is how this surge in Green Party support will affect the final count on election day," said Dr. of Forum Research. Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416)

3 Methodology The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1067 randomly selected British Columbia Voters. The poll was conducted April 28-29, Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Actual results will depend on the parties ability to get their voters out. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at 3

4 Provincial Trend % Sample Con Lib NDP Green Other April 28-29, Apr 4-5, Feb 28-Mar 1, Feb 21-23, Ballot Intention If a provincial election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time? Age/Gender % Total Male Female Sample Liberal New Democratic Conservative Green Another Party Income % Total <$20K $20- $40K $40- $60K $60- $80K $80- $100K $100- $250K Sample Liberal New Democratic Conservative Green Another Party Region % Total Vancouver Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Interior North Sample Liberal New Democratic Conservative Green Another Party

5 Education % Total Secondary school or less Some college or university Completed college or university Post graduate studies Sample Liberal New Democratic Conservative Green Another Party

6 Clark approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Christy Clark is doing as premier? Age/Gender % Total Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Income % Total <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Region % Total Vancouver Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Interior North Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Education % Total Secondary school or less Some college or university Completed college or university Post graduate studies Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Current Provincial Vote Preference % Total Liberal New Democratic Conservative Green Another Party Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

7 John Horgan approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job John Horgan is doing as leader of the opposition? Age/Gender % Total Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Income % Total <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Region % Total Vancouver Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Interior North Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Education % Total Secondary school or less Some college or university Completed college or university Post graduate studies Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Current Provincial Vote Preference % Total Liberal New Democratic Conservative Green Another Party Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

8 Andrew Weaver Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Andrew Weaver is doing as Leader of the Green Party? Age/Gender % Total Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Income % Total <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Region % Total Vancouver Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Interior North Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Education % Total Secondary school or less Some college or university Completed college or university Post graduate studies Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Current Provincial Vote Preference % Total Liberal New Democratic Conservative Green Another Party Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

9 Best premier Regardless of which party you would vote for, who do you think would make the best Premier of British Columbia? Age/Gender % Total Male Female Sample Christy Clark John Horgan Andrew Weaver None of these Don t know Income % Total <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample Christy Clark John Horgan Andrew Weaver None of these Don t know Region % Total Vancouver Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Interior North Sample Christy Clark John Horgan Andrew Weaver None of these Don t know

10 Education % Total Secondary school or less Some college or university Completed college or university Post graduate studies Sample Christy Clark John Horgan Andrew Weaver None of these Don t know Current Provincial Vote Preference % Total Liberal New Democratic Conservative Green Another Party Sample Christy Clark John Horgan Andrew Weaver None of these Don t know For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) Fax: (416)

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