NANOS. Gap between Liberals and Conservatives narrows to seven points in Nanos tracking

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1 Gap between Liberals and Conservatives narrows to seven points in Nanos tracking Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending January 27 th, 2017 (released January 31 st, am Eastern) NANOS

2 At a glance Ballot The latest Nanos ballot tracking has the Liberals at 39.1 per cent support while the Conservatives are at 32.1 percent, the NDP 16.3 per cent, the Greens 5.5 per cent and the BQ at 5.1 per cent. Accessible Voters Asked a series of independent questions for each federal political party 57.0 per cent of Canadians would consider voting Liberal while 47.6 per cent would consider voting Conservative, 40.1 per cent would consider voting NDP and 30.8 per cent would consider voting Green. Preferred Prime Minister On the preferred PM tracking Trudeau came in at 46.7 per cent, followed by Ambrose at 19.9 per cent, Mulcair at 10.7 per cent, May at 4.7 per cent and 17.0 per cent of Canadians were unsure. Qualities of a Good Political Leader Asked a series of independent questions, 64.0 per cent of Canadians believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 49.3 per cent think similarly of Mulcair. More than one in three Canadians think Ambrose (37.2%) and May (36.4%) have the qualities of a good political leader. Nanos Party Power Index The Nanos Index which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot preferences and impressions of the leaders has the Liberals with 61.2 out of a possible 100 points, the Conservatives with 49.0 points, the NDP with 45.5 points the Greens with 33.2 points and the BQ with 23.4 points (QC only). Visit the live Nanos data portal where you can dynamically chart ballot, preferred PM and Nanos Index numbers by region, gender and age. The methodology for the weekly tracking is posted here. PDFs of the polling reports are on the Nanos website. Contact: Nik Nanos, FMRIA 2

3 A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted weekly by Nanos Research using live agents. The weekly tracking figures are based on a four-week rolling sample comprised of 1,000 interviews. To update the tracking a new week of 250 interviews is added and the oldest week dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,000 respondents is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Ballot Nanos Tracking Data Summary This week Last week Oct 18 (Election Call) 4 Weeks Ago 3 Months Ago (Oct 28/16) 1 Year Ago 12 Month High 12 Month Low Liberal 39.1% 39.4% 39.1% 43.0% 44.5% 41.0% 47.7% 39.1% Conservative 32.1% 31.2% 30.5% 27.9% 29.6% 27.3% 32.1% 24.2% NDP 16.3% 16.3% 19.7% 16.7% 13.3% 20.7% 21.2% 13.3% Bloc 5.1% 5.1% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 4.4% 6.1% 3.0% Green 5.5% 5.9% 4.6% 5.9% 6.0% 5.3% 6.8% 4.0% (613) x 237 Category order based on number of seats in the House of Commons Preferred Prime Minister This week This week Oct Weeks Ago 3 Months Ago (Oct 28/16) 1 Year Ago 12 Month High 12 Month Low Trudeau 46.7% 46.6% 35.5% 49.0% 49.6% 50.0% 56.3% 46.6% Ambrose 19.9% 20.3% 29.1% 17.7% 16.0% 14.9% 20.3% 13.9% Mulcair 10.7% 10.2% 18.9% 9.6% 8.2% 13.0% 13.0% 7.4% Fortin 1.1% 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% 1.8% 0.2% May 4.7% 5.1% 5.2% 4.7% 5.7% 4.4% 6.1% 3.3% Unsure 17.0% 16.8% 9.6% 18.2% 19.9% 17.0% 19.9% 14.0% Canada Party Power Index This week This week Oct Weeks Ago 3 Months Ago (Oct 28/16) 1 Year Ago 12 Month High 12 Month Low Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Green

4 A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted weekly by Nanos Research using live agents. The weekly tracking figures are based on a four-week rolling sample comprised of 1,000 interviews. To update the tracking a new week of 250 interviews is added and the oldest week dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,000 respondents is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. (613) x 237 Category order based on number of seats in the House of Commons Party Consider Nanos Tracking Data Summary This week This week Oct Weeks Ago 3 Months Ago (Oct 28/16) 1 Year Ago 12 Month High 12 Month Low Liberal 57.0% 55.7% 54.7% 58.7% 61.2% 62.9% 66.6% 55.7% Conservative 47.6% 46.9% 39.3% 42.8% 40.0% 43.2% 47.6% 35.2% NDP 40.1% 40.1% 40.4% 41.8% 38.2% 43.7% 45.3% 37.4% Bloc 33.0% 30.5% 30.4% 30.0% 34.9% 30.3% 39.2% 23.7% Green 30.8% 30.0% 22.7% 30.4% 28.6% 34.2% 35.6% 27.7% Has Qualities of a Good Political Leader This week This week Oct Weeks Ago 3 Months Ago (Oct 28/16) 1 Year Ago 12 Month High 12 Month Low Trudeau 64.0% 63.5% 61.3% 66.1% 69.9% 70.1% 73.9% 63.5% Ambrose 37.2% 39.9% 51.8% 35.2% 33.6% 31.8% 39.9% 30.8% Mulcair 49.3% 48.5% 57.2% 51.6% 48.2% 54.8% 56.9% 45.6% Fortin 12.4% 13.4% 51.2% 16.4% 18.6% 11.1% 21.4% 10.4% May 36.4% 36.3% 36.4% 36.1% 36.5% 36.5% 41.8% 34.3% 4

5 Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? Weekly Tracking First Ranked Choice Long Term Trend (Four week rolling average ending January 27 th, 2017, n=871 Election Election Election Election Election 39% 37% 36% 38% 39% 31% 32% 32% 26% 20% 16% 18% 18% 19% 20% 16% 0% 12% 4% 6% 7% 6% 6% 4% 4% 6% 5% LP CP NDP BQ GP 5

6 Federal Party Accessible Voters Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending January 27 th, 2017 (released January 31 st, am Eastern) NANOS

7 National Weekly Tracking (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=1,000) 70% Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Liberal Party Washington DC: (202) % 51% 39% 57% 35% 20% 8% 0% Would consider voting Liberal Would not consider voting Liberal Unsure 7

8 Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party Washington DC: (202) % 60% National Weekly Tracking (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=1,000) 48% 43% 20% 0% Would consider voting Conservative Would not consider voting Conservative Unsure 8

9 60% National Weekly Tracking (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=1,000) Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] NDP Washington DC: (202) % 47% 43% 20% 11% 0% Would consider voting NDP Would not consider voting NDP Unsure 9

10 80% Quebec only Weekly Tracking (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=248) 70% Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Bloc Québécois Washington DC: (202) % 60% 52% 35% 33% 20% 13% 7% 0% Would consider voting BQ Would not consider voting BQ Unsure 10

11 80% National Weekly Tracking (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=1,000) Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Green Party Washington DC: (202) % 63% 60% 61% 28% 31% 20% 9% 9% 0% Would consider voting Green Would not consider voting Green Unsure 11

12 Tracking on the Federal Political Leaders Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending January 27 th, 2017 (released January 31 st, am Eastern) NANOS

13 National Weekly Tracking Preferred Prime Minister First Ranked Choice (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=1,000) Question: Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister? [ROTATE PARTY LEADERS] Washington DC: (202) % 47% 29% 20% 16% 17% 20% 11% 6% 5% 1% 1% 0% Justin Trudeau (Liberal) Rona Ambrose (Conservative) Thomas Mulcair (NDP) Rhéal Fortin (Bloc) Elizabeth May (Green) Unsure 13

14 Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Justin Trudeau Washington DC: (202) % 70% 60% 55% National Weekly Tracking Qualities of a Good Political Leader (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=1,000) 64% 29% 29% 20% 16% 7% 0% Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 14

15 Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Rona Ambrose Washington DC: (202) National Weekly Tracking Qualities of a Good Political Leader (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=1,000) 70% 60% 55% 38% 37% 32% 31% 20% 7% 0% Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 15

16 Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Thomas Mulcair 70% 60% National Weekly Tracking Qualities of a Good Political Leader (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=1,000) Washington DC: (202) % 49% 33% 25% 20% 18% 0% Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 16

17 Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Rhéal Fortin Washington DC: (202) Quebec only Weekly Tracking Qualities of a Good Political Leader (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=248) 70% 60% 37% 49% 38% 20% 23% 12% 0% Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 17

18 Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Elizabeth May Washington DC: (202) % 60% National Weekly Tracking Qualities of a Good Political Leader (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=1,000) 43% 31% 36% 26% 24% 20% 0% Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 18

19 Nanos Party Power Index Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending January 27 th, 2017 (released January 31 st, am Eastern) NANOS

20 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Canada is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. Washington DC: (202) Canada Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Ending January 27 th, 2017, n=1,000) Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc 20

21 Methodology 21

22 Methodology The Weekly Nanos Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on a dual frame (land + cell-lines) random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate ±3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Since voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Power Index fills this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference. The Nanos Party Power Index is a weekly composite measurement of federal party brands based on four questions about the federal parties and their leadership. The questions include: a ballot question that captures the 1 st and 2 nd vote preferences; a measure of whether the respondent would consider voting for the party; the 1 st and 2 nd preferences for Prime Minister of the current federal leaders; and, whether the respondent believes each current leader has the quality to be a good leader. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above 50 is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this time. The important factors in this weekly tracking include the direction of the brand strength or weakness and also the brand strength of one federal party relative to another. 22

23 Element Description Technical Note Element Description Organization who commissioned the research Sample Size Nanos Research 1,000 randomly selected individuals; four week-rolling average of 250 interviews per week. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each day the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. Weighting of Data Screening The results were weighted by age and gender using the latest Census information (2011) and the sample is geographically stratified to ensure a distribution across all regions of Canada. See tables for full weighting disclosure Screening ensured potential respondents did not work in the market research industry, in the advertising industry, in the media or a political party prior to administering the survey to ensure the integrity of the data. Margin of Error ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Mode of Survey Sampling Method Base Demographics (Captured) Demographics (Other) Fieldwork/Validation Number of Calls Time of Calls Tracking; RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) random telephone survey. The sample included both land- and cell-lines RDD (Random Digit Dialed) across Canada. Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies, British Columbia; Men and Women; 18 years and older. Six digit postal code was used to validate geography. Age, gender, education, income Live interviews with live supervision to validate work as per the MRIA Code of Conduct Maximum of five call backs. Local time 5:00-9:00 pm, on weekends 12:00-9:00 pm. Field Dates December 27 th, 2016 to January 27 th, 2017 Language of Survey The survey was conducted in both English and French. Excluded Demographics Stratification Estimated Response Rate Question Order Question Content Question Wording Survey Company Contact Individuals younger than 18 years old; individuals without land or cell lines could not participate. By age and gender using the latest Census information (2011) and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. Smaller areas such as Atlantic Canada were marginally oversampled to allow for a minimum regional sample. Nine percent, consistent with industry norms. Question order in the preceding report was asked in the following order party consideration, unprompted vote preferences, preferred Prime Minister and qualities of a good political leader. This was part of a weekly tracking survey. The preceding module included questions about national issues of concern and ballot preferences and economic confidence. The wording of questions is as presented in the report with a randomization of the political leaders for the question involving leader qualities. Nanos Research Contact Nanos Research for more information or with any concerns or questions. Telephone:(613) ext

24 About Nanos Nanos is one of North America s most trusted research and strategy organizations. Our team of professionals is regularly called upon by senior executives to deliver superior intelligence and market advantage whether it be helping to chart a path forward, managing a reputation or brand risk or understanding the trends that drive success. Services range from traditional telephone surveys, through to elite in-depth interviews, online research and focus groups. Nanos clients range from Fortune 500 companies through to leading advocacy groups interested in understanding and shaping the public landscape. Whether it is understanding your brand or reputation, customer needs and satisfaction, engaging employees or testing new ads or products, Nanos provides insight you can trust. View our brochure Nik Nanos FMRIA Chairman, Nanos Research Group Ottawa (613) ext. 237 Washington DC (202)

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