Political Monitor Trends

Transcription

1 Political Monitor Trends February 2008 Contacts:

2 Voting Intentions

3 Base: 1,158 British adults 18+, 21st 26th Feb 2008 (figures exclude would not vote 2%, undecided 6% and refused 1%) Voting Intentions (21-26 February 2008) Q How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? LD Absolutely certain to vote 55% (1,158) of the electorate Other 8% Con 16% 39% Lab 37%

4 Voting Intentions and Likelihood to Vote Q How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? LD All giving a voting intention (77%) Other 15% 9% 34% Con LD All certain to vote (55%) Other 16% 8% 6% Con 39% 42% Lab lead = +8% Lab lead = -2% 37% Lab Lab Base: All voting = 77% (1,574); All certain to vote = 55% (1,158)

5 Voting Intentions Jan 03 Feb 08 (all certain to vote = 55% of electorate) Q How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Howard elected Election Cameron elected Brown PM Con (39%) Lab (37%) LD (16%) 5 0 Jan-03 Feb Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Dec Jan-04 Feb Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Oct Dec Jan-05 Feb Mar Apr June July Aug Oct Jan-06 Feb Mar Apr Jun July Oct Dec Jan-07 Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Dec Jan Feb Base: c.2,000 GB adults each month, of which c.1,060 certain to vote

6 Satisfaction

7 Satisfaction with leaders and the Government % Dissatisfied % Satisfied Net Net change from Jan 2008 David Cameron Gordon Brown The Government Nick Clegg Base: 1,037 British adults 18+, Feb 2008

8 Cameron vs. Brown (February 2008) Q Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Gordon Brown David Cameron Don t know 15% Satisfied Don t know Satisfied 31% 29% 35% 55% Dissatisfied Net = % Dissatisfied Net = 0 Base: 1,037 British adults 18+, Feb 2008

9 The Government and Prime Minister Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% Net satisfied (+/-) Government Blair Brown Jan-05 Feb Mar June July Aug Oct Jan-06 Feb Mar Apr Jun Jul Oct Dec Jan-07 Apr Jun July Aug Oct Dec Jan-08 Feb Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

10 Gordon Brown (satisfaction) Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? February 2008 July 2007 Feb 2008 Don t know 15% Satisfied 31% Dissatisfied 55% 40 55% 20 0 Satisfied 31% Dissatisfied Net = -24 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Base: 1,037 British adults 18+, Feb 2008

11 Base: 322 Labour supporters 18+, Feb 2008 Gordon Brown (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Don t know February % 29% Satisfied 58% July 2007 Feb 2008 Satisfied 58% Dissatisfied 29% Dissatisfied Net = Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08

12 David Cameron (satisfaction) Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? February 2008 July 2007 Feb 2008 Don t know Dissatisfied 29% 35% Satisfied 35% Net = Dissatisfied 35% Satisfied 35% Jan-06 Feb Mar Apr June July Aug Oct Jan-07 Apr Jun Jul Aug Oct Dec Jan-08 Feb-08 Base: 1,037 British adults 18+, Feb 2008

13 Q David Cameron (satisfaction among party supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? February 2008 July 2007 Feb 2008 Don t know 16% 22% Dissatisfied Satisfied 62% Net = Satisfied 62% Dissatisfied 22% Jan-06 Feb Mar Apr June July Aug Oct Dec Jan-07 Apr Jun Jul Aug Oct Dec Jan-08 Feb-08 Base: 267 Conservative Supporters 18+, Feb 2008

14 Satisfaction with Duncan Smith/ Howard / Cameron Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Iain Duncan Smith / Michael Howard/ David Cameron is doing his job as Leader of the Conservative Party? Net satisfied (+/-) All Conservative Supporters IDS MH MH DC +40% % Jan-03 Mar Jul Sep Jan-04 Mar Jul Jan-05 Mar July Feb Apr Jun Jan-07 Jul Dec Feb Base: c. 1,000 British adults (c. 200 Conservative voters), 18+ each month

15 Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month Opposition Leaders ( ) % Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his job as? BLAIR HAGUE IDS HOWARD CAMERON 35% 35% 29%

16 Net satisfaction with opposition leaders ( ) Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his job as? BLAIR CAMERON HOWARD HAGUE DUNCAN SMITH

17 Leaders ( ) don t knows % Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his job as? CAMERON BROWN HOWARD DUNCAN SMITH BLAIR HAGUE Months from election as leader Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month

18 Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month Net satisfaction with new PMs Net satisfaction Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? NEW PM MAJOR / BROWN THATCHER / BLAIR Number of month from becoming Prime Minister DONATIONS SCANDAL GE 1992 BLACK WEDNESDAY

19 Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month 0-10 Net satisfaction with new Governments Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country? NEW PM Number of months from new PM Net satisfaction THATCHER / BLAIR GE 1992 MAJOR / BROWN BLACK WEDNESDAY

20 Issues Facing Britain

21 Q Issues facing Britain: February 08 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Crime/ law and order Race relations/immigration NHS/Hospitals Economy Education/Schools Defence/Foreign affairs Housing Morality/Individual Behaviour Inflation/Prices Taxation Top spontaneous mentions 12% 10% 9% 8% 18% 17% 16% 25% 44% 50% Base: 1,037 British adults 18+, Feb 2008

22 Base: c. 1,000 adults 18+ each month Issues facing Britain (last 2 years) % Q What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Crime Race relations Defence/ Foreign Policy/ terrorism NHS Economy Education/schools Europe Pensions/ Social Security Jan-05 Mar Jul-05 Sep Jan-06 Mar Jul-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08

23 Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ Q Issues Facing Britain: Long Term Trends What do you see as the main/other important issues facing Britain today? NHS 2006 Crime/ Law & Order Education 2007 Race relations/ immigration Defence

24 Economic Optimism

25 Q Get worse February 2008 Don t know Improve 54% 5%7% 33% Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? EOI = -47% Stay the same January 2004 February 2008 Get worse 54% Stay the same 33% Improve Jan-04 Mar July Jan-05 Mar July Feb Apr June Jan Jul-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 7% Base: 1,037 British adults 18+, Feb 2008

26 The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Q Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next months? Index (get better minus get worse) (Feb 08) Jan '97 '97 Oct '97 Mar '98 Aug '98 Jan '99 Jun '99 '99 Apr '00 Sep '00 Feb '01 Jul '01 Dec '01 '02 Oct '02 Mar '03 Jul '03 Dec '03 '04 Oct '04 Mar '05 Aug '05 Jan '06 Jun '06 '06 Apr '07 Sep '07 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month