Obama vs. Romney: Is It the Economy, Stupid?

Transcription

1 Obama vs. Romney: Is It the Economy, Stupid? Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes Pew Research Center October 24-25, 2012

2 The American Voter 2

3 Voter Turnout % % Total White Black Hispanic Asian Men (60.7 m) Women (70.4 m) SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. 3

4 Young-Old Voting Gap Largest Since 1972 % Voting for Democratic presidential candidate Current figures based on registered voters, Sept. 22-Oct. 4, Previous data based on exit polls. 4

5 Number of Independents Continues to Grow Republican Democrat Independent numbers calculated as of October 12 (People-Press surveys). 5

6 Party Profiles in 2012 Republicans Independents Democrats % % % White Black Hispanic Other Male Female Average age Think of self as Conservative Moderate Liberal Whites and blacks include those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Calculations for the year up to October 12 (People-Press surveys). 6

7 Large Partisan Divides Social safety net Environment* Labor unions Equal opportunity Govt performance Immigration** Business Personal efficacy Social conservatism Religiosity Personal finance National security Optimism Govt responsiveness Political engagement Bars show the differences between Republicans and Democrats across 15 values indices based on related survey questions. * Environment index began in 1992, immigration index in People-Press 2012 Values survey. 7

8 The Domestic Economy as an Electoral Issue 8

9 Avg. Consumer Confidence in Reelection Years Consumer Confidence and Presidential Elections Reelected incumbents Losing incumbents Nixon Ford Carter Reagan George HW Bush Clinton George W Bush 2012 (Sept) Data sources: Conference Board, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics Taken from Council on Foreign Relations 9

10 People More Positive about Economic Future 80 Economy will get better Economy is recovering June July August September October NBC News/Wall Street Journal October 2012 poll. 10

11 But Not Better Off Now % saying their personal financial situation is excellent or good Recession begins 38 Obama takes office September 6, 2012 Pew Social and Demographic Trends 11

12 The Economy is Top Priority Issue that matters most in deciding vote... Likely voters % The economy 46 Social issues and values 15 Social Security and Medicare 12 Health care 10 The federal deficit 7 Foreign policy and the Middle East 6 Terrorism 1 NBC News/WSJ Sept , 2012 poll. 12

13 Swing Priorities Differ by Gender The most important issue in this election is Women Men Among female registered voters % Among male registered voters Abortion 39 Jobs 38 Jobs 19 The economy 37 Healthcare 18 Federal budget deficit 10 The economy 16 Healthcare 10 Equal rights/pay 15 Taxes 6 Gov t regulation 3 Gov t regulation 4 Education 2 Defense/National security 4 Medicare/Elderly care 2 Medicare/Elderly care 3 Social Security 2 Foreign policy 2 Taxes 1 Honesty/Integrity 2 % Asked of registered voters in 12 key swing states. October 5-11, 2012 Gallup poll. 13

14 International Issues 14

15 Foreign Issues Far Less Important than in 2008, 2004 Most important problem facing the country July 2004 July 2008 Mar 2012 % % % Economic problems NET Unemployment/Jobs Economy (General) Foreign issues NET War/Iraq/Afghanistan Selected answers shown. Respondents were allowed to give more than one answer. Based on general public. People-Press March 2012 survey. 15

16 More Favor Focusing Greater Attention on Problems at Home We should pay less attention to problems overseas, concentrate on problems here at home 88 Agree 73 Completely agree People-Press 2012 Values survey. 16

17 Support for Tough U.S. Approach Toward Iran, China In dispute over Iran s nuclear program, what s more important? Jan 2012 % Oct 2012 % Take a firm stand Avoid military conflict with Iran Other/ Don t know Which is more important in dealing with China on economic issues? Mar 2011 Oct 2012 Building a stronger relationship Getting tougher Don t know Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. October 4-7, 2012 People-Press survey. 17

18 Obama, Romney Tied on Foreign Policy, Romney Leads on China Who can do the better job Obama Romney % % Making wise decisions about foreign policy China s trade policies Iran s nuclear program Political instability in Egypt, Libya Based on registered voters. October 4-7, 2012 People-Press survey. 18

19 The Horse Race 19

20 Romney Support Grows Early- Mid Sept Late Sept/ Early Oct Mid Oct Gallup N/A Even +6 Romney NBC/WSJ +5 Obama +3 Obama Even Wash Post/ABC +1 Obama +2 Obama +1 Obama CBS +3 Obama N/A +2 Obama Pew +8 Obama +4 Romney N/A Based on likely voters. Polls were not conducted at the same time. 21

21 Presidential Race by Gender Men Women Romney Obama Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Based on registered voters. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 22

22 Presidential Race by Age Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Based on registered voters. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 23

23 Presidential Race by Race White non-hispanic Black non-hispanic Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Hispanic Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Based on registered voters. Hispanic values shown only for surveys with more than 100 Hispanic respondents. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 24

24 Romney Makes Gains, Stable Views of Obama 25

25 Romney s Favorability Improves Barack Obama Favorable Mitt Romney Unfavorable Unfavorable 29 Favorable Nov 2011 Oct 2012 Nov 2011 Oct 2012 Based on registered voters. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 26

26 Romney Support Strengthens Percent who STRONGLY support their candidate Obama supporters Romney supporters June July Sept Oct Based on registered voters. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 27

27 Economic Confidence in Romney How confident are you that has the right set of goals and policies toward the economy Aug Oct Change % % Obama Confident Not confident Romney Confident Not confident Based on registered voters. NBC News/ Wall Street Journal October, 2012 survey. 28

28 Romney Advantage on Economy Budget deficit Jobs and unemployment Dealing with economy Dealing with taxes Being commander-in-chief Handling foreign policy Dealing with Medicare Handling Afghanistan Being knowledgeable/experienced Looking out for middle class Who would be better when it comes to Romney Obama Dealing with women s issues +23 Based on registered voters. NBC/Wall Street Journal October, 2012 survey. 29

29 Swing States 30

30 Votes by State Solid Romney Leaning Romney Swing Leaning Obama Solid Obama Source: NY Times election map 31

31 Swing State Polls RealClearPolitics polling averages. Obama Romney Adv % % Nevada Obama Wisconsin Obama Iowa Obama Ohio Obama Virginia Even Colorado Romney New Hampshire Romney Florida Romney North Carolina Romney 32

32 Swing Voters Divided On Issues Issues: Who would do the better job Obama Romney % % Adv Reducing the federal budget deficit R+21 Improving the job situation R+13 Dealing with taxes even Making wise decisions on foreign policy O+14 Dealing with Medicare O+17 Dealing with health care O+21 Who Has better ideas about the role of government in solving problems O+2 Based on registered voters. Swing voters are undecided, only lean toward a candidate, or say there is still a chance they will change their mind (18% of voters). Figures read across, percent volunteering both, neither and don t know not shown. Statistically significant advantages in bold. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 33

33 But Like Obama s Traits Traits: Which candidate Obama Romney % % Adv Has new ideas R+10 Is willing to work with other party O+5 Is a strong leader O+13 Takes more moderate positions O+16 Is honest and truthful O+20 Takes consistent positions on issues O+23 Connects well with ordinary Americans 69 7 O+62 Based on registered voters. Swing voters are undecided, only lean toward a candidate, or say there is still a chance they will change their mind (18% of voters). Figures read across, percent volunteering both, neither and don t know not shown. Statistically significant advantages in bold. People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 34

34 All Pew Global Attitudes Project reports and data are available online at