National Opinion Poll: March/April for Publication on 5 th April 2015

Transcription

1 1. National Opinion Poll: March/April for Publication on 5 th April 2015

2 Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 5 th April The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, attitudes towards same sex marriage, and what should be prioritised to reward the public in an improving economy. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 971 interviews were conducted at 66 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 24th March and 2 nd April Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

3 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-toface basis in the home at 66 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1 POLL The 971 interviews on the poll were carried out between 24th March and 2 nd April 2015 The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent

4 4. The Results

5 Steadying the ship sees Enda return to the top of the pile 5. This latest Millward Brown opinion poll, conducted up until Thursday of this week, indicates that there has been a sharpening of opinion among the population in terms of how they view the body politic. The proportion of Undecideds has dropped across many of our tracking metrics, indicating that the public is evaluating political proceedings through a more focussed lens. Of course, the change in tone from all parties and politicians has been quite apparent since the beginning of the year we are undoubtedly now in election mode, regardless of when that may be. First off, the headline figures. Fine Gael will be pleased to see themselves restored to the top of the pecking order. They will be confident that at this stage of the run-in to the General Election, they are working off a baseline figure of support in the Mid-twenties. With the economy continuing to improve, consumer sentiment on the up, and more money in Micheal Noonan s kitty for the Autumn Budget, they will view 2015 as a springboard. Of course, this is on the proviso that there are no more banana skins lurking for the party will be held up as a mirror by party strategists internally on how not to do things. For the second poll in a row, Labour s fortunes have improved. Although the increases have been glacially slow, they are going in the right direction. For them, to break the psychological double digit barrier will be their next target. However, there is no doubt that the next election will be a trying time for the party, and in particular, many of the newly elected TDs from Reflecting the steadying of the government ship, satisfaction with this administration s performance is at a six month high; 26pc are happy. Whilst not a stellar performance in itself, it nonetheless mirrors the trend of improving consumer sentiment. Sinn Fein, having dropped two points to 24pc, will still be happy with this performance. They have, yet again, deflected many of the allegations concerning allegations of sexual abuse cover-ups. In addition, Mary Lou McDonald, their de facto leader down south, has performed impressively in the Dail articulating the fears and frustrations that many unquestionably feel.

6 Steadying the ship sees Enda return to the top of the pile (Cont d) Support for Independents has slipped, with just one in five now plumping for them. Within this grouping, both Renua and the Socialist Party gain two percent support. For both these parties, the key will be to target specific constituencies only, and to hope that on the day the ball bounces their way. This task, one suspects, may be easier for the Socialist party to achieve. Which leads us to Fianna Fail; the apparently forgotten man in Irish Politics. Their inability to break through the twenty percent mark in a series of opinion polls is becoming a more open cause of concern and frustration within the party. For whatever reason, they seem to be playing second fiddle in opposition most of the time. The upcoming Carlow/Kilkenny by-election will be closely watched by many whilst the result is important, their performance is even more so, particularly for Micheal Martin. However, Fianna Fail s alleged travails may be slightly overstated. In the local elections last year, they actually returned the highest number of councillors nationwide their disastrous performance in the Europeans tarnished this fact. In addition, Millward Brown have conducted an analysis in this latest poll that suggests that the party is not the pariah that is was just four years ago. When asked which party/grouping that people would NOT consider voting for, just three in ten, 30pc, nominate Fianna Fail (less than Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Fein). Looking beyond the headline figures, it is interesting to note that just 23pc of Fine Gael voters and 32pc of Labour voters have absolutely ruled out ever considering Fianna Fail. Whether this is a commentary on Fianna Fail s credentials, or a statement on the alternative options is debatable. What is does suggest however, is that Fianna Fail have lost some of the toxicity that the economic collapse brought upon them. This will be of huge importance in the final counts in the larger constituencies come the general election. The establishment parties are, to a certain extent, sticking together. 6.

7 Steadying the ship sees Enda return to the top of the pile (Cont d) In the short term, there is the upcoming Same Sex Marriage referendum to consider. With less than seven weeks to polling day, the Yes side still maintain a commanding lead (when the 13pc undecided are excluded). Yet, the gap is narrowing. Those intending to vote yes have dropped four points to 76pc, whilst those voting no have increased by a similar margin to 24pc. The age profile is as expected younger voters are more likely to be in favour, with a majority of older voters against. It is a given that actual turnout on the day increases with age, and this point alone suggests that come the 22 nd May, the result may be a lot tighter than is presently indicated. 7.

8 8. National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions

9 Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows General Election Result Feb 2011 Opinion Poll 24th March 2 nd April Including Don t Knows Opinion Poll 24th March 2 nd April Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael Labour Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Independents/Others Fianna Fáil The Green Party Independents/others Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Green Party Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

10 Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Feb 6 th 13 th 2013 Feb 16 th 28 th 2013 Mar 4 th 14 th 2013 Mar 30 th Apr 10 th 2013 May 5 th -16 th 2013 May 17 th 28 th 2013 June 20 th 28 th 2013 Aug 3 rd -12 th 2013 Aug 17 th -27 th 2013 Sep 13 th 25 th 2013 Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th 2014 Feb 19 th -28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th 2014 Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th -18 th 2014 Oct 21 st 31 st 2014 Dec 8 th -18 th 2014 Jan 29 th -Feb 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd 2015 Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour Green Party United Left Alliance Independents/others* * * * *Includes Renua (2), Socialist Party (2) 10. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

11 Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference FINE GAEL FIANNA FÁIL SINN FÉIN LABOUR GREEN PARTY INDEPENDENTS OTHERS* *ULA now included in Independents/others from late May onwards *People Before Profit now included in Independents/others (July 2014) Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

12 Satisfaction with the Government continues to recover in 2015, but is still underwhelming Just over one in four are happy with the Current performance HIGHER AMONG Females year olds year olds 72 C2DEs 75 Rest of Leinster 80 Dissatisfied (68) Satisfied (23) HIGHER AMONG Males year olds 30 ABs 39 Farming Community 34 Dublin Residents 32 Fianna Fáil Supporters 76 Sinn Féin Supporters 95 (9) Munster Residents 29 Fine Gael 75 Independents/Others 84 Labour Supporters 39 ( )= February 2015 Results 12. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

13 Satisfaction with Government Over Time 2013 results 2014 results 2015 results Mar 13 Apr 13 May 5 th 16 th 13 May 17 th -28 th 13 June 20 th 28 th 13 Aug 3 rd -12 th 13 Aug 17 th -27 th 13 Sept 13 th -25 th 13 Sept 30 th - Oct 9 th 13 Nov 3 rd -13 th 13 Jan 15 th -24 th 14 Feb 19 th 28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th 2013 Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th 18 th 2014 Oct 21 st 31 st 2014 Dec 8 th 18 th 2014 Jan 29 th Feb 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd 2015 Dissatisfied Satisfied

14 Satisfaction with Party Leaders Early Nov Jan Feb Enda Kenny Eamon Gilmore Joan Burton* Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Apr Jul Sep Oct Dec Feb 15 Mar/ Apr 15 Early Nov Jan Feb Apr Jul Sep Oct Dec Feb 15 Mar/ Apr 15 Early Nov Jan Feb Apr Jul Sep Oct Dec Feb 15 Mar/ Apr 15 Early Nov Jan Feb Apr Jul Sep Oct Dec Feb 15 Mar/ Apr 15 Lucinda Creighton Mar/ Apr 15 Satisfied Dissatisfied (9) (9) (10) (11) (13) (11) (8) (10) (12) (7) (11) (16) (14) (15) (33) (22) (17) (16) (16) (11) (15) (18) (19) (18) (24) (21) (17) (20) (22) (13) (15) (20) (20) (21) (28) (24) (17) (20) (21) (12) (36) 14. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

15 Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny HIGHER AMONG year olds 72 C2DEs 71 Leinster Residents 76 Fianna Fáil Supporters 73 Sinn Féin Supporters 92 Independents/Others 79 Dissatisfied (64) Satisfied (24) (12) HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 31 ABs 45 Farming Community 36 Dublin Residents 33 Conn/Ulster Residents 32 Fine Gael 76 Labour Supporters 39 ( )= February 2015 Results 15. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

16 Satisfaction with Joan Burton HIGHER AMONG year olds 69 DEs 71 Leinster Residents 71 Sinn Féin Supporters 92 Independents/Others 75 Dissatisfied (61) Satisfied (23) HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 33 ABs 31 Farming Community 36 Munster Residents 29 Fianna Fáil Supporters 28 Fine Gael Supporters 55 Labour Supporters 58 (16) ( )= February 2015 Results 16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

17 Satisfaction with Michéal Martin HIGHER AMONG Males year olds 63 DEs 62 Conn/Ulster Residents 61 Sinn Féin Supporters 80 Independents/Others 62 Dissatisfied (49) Satisfied (29) HIGHER AMONG 55+ year olds 36 ABs 38 Farming Community 45 Munster 34 Fianna Fáil Supporters 67 Fine Gael Supporters 38 (22) ( )= February 2015 Results 17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

18 Satisfaction with Gerry Adams HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 67 ABs 71 Farming Community 66 Conn/Ulster Residents 61 Fianna Fáil Supporters 65 Dissatisfied (50) Satisfied (29) HIGHER AMONG year olds 40 C2s 38 DEs 35 Dublin Residents 36 Sinn Féin Supporters 80 Fine Gael Supporters 68 Labour Supporters 78 (21) ( )= February 2015 Results 18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

19 Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 50 Dublin Residents 62 Labour Supporters 55 Sinn Féin Supporters 51 Dissatisfied Satisfied HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 23 ABs 29 Farming Community 31 Conn/Ulster Residents 28 Fianna Fáil Supporters 26 Fine Gael Supporters Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

20 Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support SATISFIED Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Lucinda Creighton Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other Party Supporters* DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Lucinda Creighton Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland? * Includes all other parties

21 Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Divisions between establishment and non-establishment parties are apparent SATISFIED Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other party Supporters* Fine Gael 40 n/a Labour n/a Fianna Fáil n/a Sinn Féin Stop the Water Tax Socialist Party n/a People Before Profit Renua * Includes all other parties 21. Q8. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

22 22. National Opinion Poll: March/April Special Questions for Publication on 5 th April 2015

23 Potential wage increases in the private and public sectors Support for rewarding both sectors has increased, but the electorate are still believe that public sector may have to wait HIGHER AMONG year olds 47 C1s 47 Farming Community 49 Munster Residents 59 Fianna Fáil Supporters 49 Labour Supporters 48 Sinn Féin Supporters 47 HIGHER AMONG year olds 42 ABC1s 42 Munster Residents 44 Fianna Fáil Supporters 42 No (44) Private Sector Yes (38) No (51) Public Sector Yes (31) HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 49 DEs 50 Dublin Residents 55 Independents/Others 51 (18) HIGHER AMONG Males year olds 55 DEs 54 Dublin Residents 54 Conn/Ulster Residents 62 Independents/Others 55 (18) Q Do you think there has been sufficient improvement in the economy to merit wage increases in the PRIVATE sector? Q And do you think there has been sufficient improvement in the economy to merit wage increases in the PUBLIC sector? 23. ( )= September 2014 results

24 If money is to be given back from the exchequer, water charges and USC reductions are the preferred options -both legacy charges from the economic crash What they should do first What they should do next Total Reduce water charges Reduce the level of USC Reduce Income Tax Reduce Property Tax Reduce PRSI Something Else Q The Government has suggested that as the economy improves, there will be scope for giving money back to people. Which of the following would you prefer that they did first. And what should they do next?

25 Support has increased for the 8 th amendment to be repealed, although opinions in both camps are hardening September 2014 February 2015 March/April 2015 In favour HIGHER AMONG year olds 72 ABC1s year olds 67 Dublin Residents 68 Against HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 26 Fianna Fáil Supporters 23 Labour Supporters Q17 Are you personally in favour, or against, holding a referendum to repeal the 8 th amendment to the Constitution, which currently gives equal right to life to the mother and the foetus?

26 Less than three in ten believe the targeting of individual politicians is a legitimate form of protest Legitimate form of protest or not? HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 58 ABs 62 Dublin Residents 64 Fine Gael Supporters 63 Labour Supporters 64 No, is not legitimate form of protest Yes, is legitimate form of protest HIGHER AMONG year olds 33 DEs 33 Farming Community 41 Leinster Residents 36 Conn/Ulster Residents 39 Sinn Féin Supporters 45 It depends 26. Q Do you think that the targeting of individual politicians is a legitimate form or protest or not?

27 Two thirds believe same sex marriage should be recognised within the constitution, with those undecided dropping. Both sides will take solace in the movements since February Will vote against the amendment (16) Will vote in favour of the amendment (62) HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds year olds 42 Farming Community year olds year olds 77 Fianna Fáil Supporters 26 (22) 13 ABs 74 C1s 72 Undecided on Party support 69 ( ) = February 2015 results 27. Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to provide for recognition of Same Sex marriages by the state. Will you vote in favour or against this amendment?

28 However, when voting intentions excluding don t knows are examined, the gap has narrowed since February Base: Excluding Don t Knows (848) Will vote against the amendment (20) Will vote in favour of the amendment (80) HIGHER AMONG Males year olds year olds 52 Farming Community 56 Fianna Fáil Supporters HIGHER AMONG year olds 88 Under 35 year olds year olds 85 ABC1s 82 Undecided on Party Support 83 ( ) = February 2015 results 28. Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to provide for recognition of Same Sex marriages by the state. Will you vote in favour or against this amendment?

29 Among those decided, the Yes side appear to be more steadfast in their voting decision Base: All In Favour or Against Amendment (848) Total In Favour Against Absolutely certain (60) 61 HARD YES (62) 65 HARD NO (53) 49 Pretty certain (31) SOFT YES SOFT NO 30 (30) 30 (33) 28 Some reservations Not at all certain (6) (2) 7 2 (6) (1) 3 1 (6) 17 (2) (6) 4 1 (2) * (2) ( ) = February 2015 results Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming referendum?

30 In terms of adoption by Same Sex Couples, opinions are polarised Any reservations (45) A Male Homosexual Couple year olds year olds 65 Farming Community 66 Fianna Fáil Supporters 58 Fine Gael Supporters 52 A lot of reservations No reservations Any reservations (44) year olds year olds 64 Farming Community 70 Fianna Fáil Supporters 55 Fine Gael Supporters 51 A lot of reservations A Female Lesbian Couple No reservations Some reservations Some reservations It depends No reservations year olds year olds 52 ABs 47 Dublin Residents 46 Labour Supporters 50 Undecided on Party Support 48 It depends No reservations year olds 54 Dublin Residents 50 Labour Supporters 61 Sinn Féin Supporters Q Would you have any reservations or not for children to be adopted by. (i) A male homosexual couple (ii) A female lesbian couple

31 Attitudes towards Integration the majority have no reservations, but a sizeable minority do A different skin colour A different religion A different ethnic background No reservations Some reservations A lot of reservations It depends Q Would you have any reservations or not if your child were to marry a person. (i) With a different skin colour (ii) Of a different religion (iii) Of a different ethnic background

32 Three in ten either have reservations or are qualified in their support ( it depends ) for inter-racial marriages Any reservations 65+ year olds 36 Dublin Residents 36 Fine Gael Supporters 32 A different skin colour A lot of reservations 9 68 No reservations Some reservations It depends 15 6 Don t know 2 No reservations year olds year olds 72 Farming Community 72 Conn/Ulster Residents 84 Munster Residents 75 Sinn Féin Supporters 73 Undecided on Party support Q Would you have any reservations or not if your child were to marry a person. (i) With a different skin colour

33 Likewise, three in ten either have reservations or are qualified in their support ( it depends ) for inter-faith marriages Any reservations 65+ year olds 37 Dublin Residents 33 Fianna Fáil Supporters 34 Fine Gael Supporters 31 A different religion A lot of reservations No reservations Some reservations It depends Don t know No reservations year olds year olds 75 DEs 71 Munster Residents 76 Conn/Ulster Residents 78 Sinn Féin Supporters Q Would you have any reservations or not if your child were to marry a person. (ii) Of a different religion

34 Less than two in three have no reservations about their children marrying into a different ethnic culture Any reservations 65+ year olds 40 C1s 32 Farming Community 32 Dublin Residents 36 Fianna Fáil Supporters 33 Fine Gael Supporters 35 A different ethnic background A lot of reservations 9 62 No reservations Some reservations No reservations It depends Don t know Under DEs 67 Munster Residents 69 Conn/Ulster Residents 72 Sinn Féin Supporters Q Would you have any reservations or not if your child were to marry a person. (iii) Of a different ethnic background

35 For more information, please contact: Paul Moran Millbank House Arkle Road Sandyford Dublin 18 t (1)