POLL ON EU REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTION IN SCOTLAND

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1 POLL ON EU REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTION IN SCOTLAND Published nd June 0 As the leading supplier of opinion polls within Scotland for over 0 years, TNS has recently published public opinion polling on the Scottish Independence referendum and on voting s in Scotland for the 0 General Election and 0 Scottish Parliament election. TNS has also been polling voting in Scotland in relation to the referendum on the UK s membership of the EU being held on rd June. This latest poll was published on nd June 0. TNS is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abides by its rules. We also operate within the Code of Conduct of the Market Research Society (MRS). In accordance with these rules the following information is provided: Sample size 00 Fieldwork dates th nd May 0 Interview method Population sampled Sampling method Data weighting Questions Further enquiries Facetoface, inhome CAPI All adults aged + in Scotland The poll was conducted through our Omnibus, Scottish Opinion Survey. For this survey, sampling points are selected to be representative of Scotland demographically and geographically. Within each sampling point, a quota sampling method is used for respondent selection. Data is weighted to the profile of all adults aged + in Scotland, based on population profile estimates from the BARB (Broadcasters Audience Research Board) Establishment Report 0, Mid year population estimates 0 and the 00 Census. Weighting is carried out in relation to working status within gender, age, social grade and electoral region. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of vote from the 0 General Election in Scotland (as recorded at and turnout and share of constituency vote from the 0 Holyrood election (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/0/scotland/results). Unweighted and weighted bases are shown at the top of each data table. The data tables show the question wording in full

2 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. There will be a referendum on the UK s membership of the EU (European Union) on rd June 0. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? BASE: Base: All aged + in Scotland Page Table SEX Male Female 0 0 AGE AB 0 C C 0 0 DE 0 ABC CDE 0 0 Remain a member of the European Union Leave the European Union DK % 0% % 0% % 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0 Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

3 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. There will be a referendum on the UK s membership of the EU (European Union) on rd June 0. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? BASE: Base: All aged + in Scotland Page Table H&I East Mid & Fife Lothia Centra ns l Glasgo w 0 0 East/ Remain a member of the European Union Leave the European Union DK % 0 0% % 0 0 Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

4 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. There will be a referendum on the UK s membership of the EU (European Union) on rd June 0. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? BASE: Base: All aged + in Scotland Page Table Conser vative 0 Holyrood constituency vote Lib Labour Dem SNP Other Didn't vote / CR EU Ref voting Remain Leave know Likelihood of voting EU Certai n / very Certai likely n (net) 0 Independence voting Yes No know Remain a member of the European Union Leave the European Union DK % 0% 0 0% % 0 Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

5 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 QA. How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on the UK s membership of the EU (European Union) on rd June 0? BASE: Base: All aged + in Scotland Page Table SEX Male Female 0 0 AGE AB 0 C C 0 0 DE 0 ABC CDE 0 0 Certain/very likely (Net) Certain to vote Very likely to vote Quite likely to vote Not very likely to vote Certain not to vote 0 0% 0 0 0% % % 0% 0 % % 0 0% 0 0% 0% 0 0% Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

6 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 QA. How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on the UK s membership of the EU (European Union) on rd June 0? BASE: Base: All aged + in Scotland Page Table H&I East Mid & Fife Lothia Centra ns l Glasgo w 0 0 East/ Certain/very likely (Net) Certain to vote Very likely to vote Quite likely to vote Not very likely to vote Certain not to vote 0 0% 0 0 % 0 0% 0 0 % 0 0 0% 0% % 0 Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

7 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 QA. How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on the UK s membership of the EU (European Union) on rd June 0? BASE: Base: All aged + in Scotland Page Table Conser vative 0 Holyrood constituency vote Lib Labour Dem SNP Other Didn't vote / CR EU Ref voting Remain Leave know Likelihood of voting EU Certai n / very Certai likely n (net) 0 Independence voting Yes No know Certain/very likely (Net) Certain to vote Very likely to vote Quite likely to vote Not very likely to vote Certain not to vote 0 0% 0 0 % 0% % 0 0% 0 0% 0 0 % 0 0% Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

8 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. It is possible that Scotland may vote to remain in the EU, but the UK as a whole votes to leave. In those circumstances, if there was a new referendum on Scottish Independence how would you vote in that independence referendum? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page Table SEX Male Female 0 0 AGE AB 0 C C 0 0 DE 0 ABC CDE 0 0 Yes (Scotland should be independent) No (Scotland should not be independent) know 0 % 0% 0% % 0% 0 0% 00 0% Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

9 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. It is possible that Scotland may vote to remain in the EU, but the UK as a whole votes to leave. In those circumstances, if there was a new referendum on Scottish Independence how would you vote in that independence referendum? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page Table H&I East Mid & Fife Lothia Centra ns l Glasgo w 0 0 East/ Yes (Scotland should be independent) No (Scotland should not be independent) know 0 0% % 0 0% 0% % 0 0 % 0% Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

10 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. It is possible that Scotland may vote to remain in the EU, but the UK as a whole votes to leave. In those circumstances, if there was a new referendum on Scottish Independence how would you vote in that independence referendum? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page Table Conser vative 0 Holyrood constituency vote Lib Labour Dem SNP Other Didn't vote / CR EU Ref voting Remain Leave know Likelihood of voting EU Certai n / very Certai likely n (net) 0 Independence voting Yes No know Yes (Scotland should be independent) No (Scotland should not be independent) know % 0% 0 0% 0% 0% 00 % 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0% Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

11 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. If Scotland votes to remain in the EU, but the UK as a whole votes to leave, do you think there should be a new referendum on Scottish Independence? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page 0 Table SEX Male Female 0 0 AGE AB 0 C C 0 0 DE 0 ABC CDE 0 0 Yes No know 0 0% 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 % 0% 0% 0 0% % 0 0 % 0% 0 % 0 % 0% 0 % 0% Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

12 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. If Scotland votes to remain in the EU, but the UK as a whole votes to leave, do you think there should be a new referendum on Scottish Independence? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page Table H&I East Mid & Fife Lothia Centra ns l Glasgo w 0 0 East/ Yes No know 0 0% % 0% 0 0 0% 0 0 % Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

13 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. If Scotland votes to remain in the EU, but the UK as a whole votes to leave, do you think there should be a new referendum on Scottish Independence? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page Table Conser vative 0 Holyrood constituency vote Lib Labour Dem SNP Other Didn't vote / CR EU Ref voting Remain Leave know Likelihood of voting EU Certai n / very Certai likely n (net) 0 Independence voting Yes No know Yes No know 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0 0% 0 0% Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

14 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. The last SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT election was held in May 0. For which party did you vote for your constituency MSP in that election? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page Table SEX Male Female 0 0 AGE AB 0 C C 0 0 DE 0 ABC CDE 0 0 Did not vote Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat S.N.P. Other candidate or party Can t remember 0% 0 0% % 0 0% 0% 0% 0 0% 0 0% % 0 0% 0% 0 0% 0% % 0 Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

15 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. The last SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT election was held in May 0. For which party did you vote for your constituency MSP in that election? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page Table H&I East Mid & Fife Lothia Centra ns l Glasgo w 0 0 East/ Did not vote Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat S.N.P. Other candidate or party Can t remember % % 0 0 0% % % % 0% % 0% Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

16 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. The last SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT election was held in May 0. For which party did you vote for your constituency MSP in that election? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page Table Conser vative 0 Holyrood constituency vote Lib Labour Dem SNP Other Didn't vote / CR EU Ref voting Remain Leave know Likelihood of voting EU Certai n / very Certai likely n (net) 0 Independence voting Yes No know Did not vote Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat S.N.P. Other candidate or party Can t remember % 0 % 0 0% Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

17 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. The last General Election for the WESTMINSTER Parliament was held in on th May 0. For which party did you vote for your MP in that election? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page Table SEX Male Female 0 0 AGE AB 0 C C 0 0 DE 0 ABC CDE 0 0 Did not vote Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat S.N.P. Scottish Green Party UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) Other candidate or party Can t remember 0 0 % 0 0% 0 0% % % 0 % 0 % 0% % 0 % 0 0 0% % 0 0% 0 % % 0 0 % Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

18 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. The last General Election for the WESTMINSTER Parliament was held in on th May 0. For which party did you vote for your MP in that election? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page Table H&I East Mid & Fife Lothia Centra ns l Glasgo w 0 0 East/ Did not vote Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat S.N.P. Scottish Green Party UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) Other candidate or party Can t remember 0 0% 0% % 0% 0% 0 0% 0 0% % % 0% % 0 0% 0% 0 % Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

19 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Q. The last General Election for the WESTMINSTER Parliament was held in on th May 0. For which party did you vote for your MP in that election? BASE: All aged + in Scotland Page Table Conser vative 0 Holyrood constituency vote Lib Labour Dem SNP Other Didn't vote / CR EU Ref voting Remain Leave know Likelihood of voting EU Certai n / very Certai likely n (net) 0 Independence voting Yes No know Did not vote Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat S.N.P. Scottish Green Party UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) Other candidate or party Can t remember 0 % % % % 0 % % % 0% 0 % % % % % 0 0% 0 % % 0 0 % % 0% % % Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

20 AGE SEX CDE ABC DE C C AB + + Female Male SEX 0 00 Male 0% 0 0 Female 0% AGE % 0 0 % 0% 0% 0 0% % AB % % C C 0% 0% % 0% DE 0% 0% ABC 0% % 0% CDE 0% 0% Page Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Table Break BASE: All respondents Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

21 East/ Glasgo Centra Lothia Mid & w l ns Fife East H&I H&I East Mid & Fife Lothians 0 Central % Glasgow % 0 % East/ Page 0 Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Table Break BASE: All respondents Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

22 Independence voting Likelihood of EU Ref voting voting EU 0 Holyrood constituency vote Certai n / very Didn't likely Certai vote / Lib Conser know No Yes (net) n know Leave Remain CR Other SNP Dem Labour vative Holyrood constituency vote 0 0 Conservative % 0 0 Labour Lib Dem 0 SNP 0% Other 00 Didn't vote / CR 0% EU Ref voting Remain 0 0 Leave % 0% 0% 0% know Likelihood of voting EU Certain 0% Certain / very likely % 0% (net) Independence voting 0 0 Yes 0% 0% 0% % 0 No 0% 0% 0 00 know 0% 0% % 0% Page Scottish Politics May 0 JN000 Table Break BASE: All respondents Fieldwork : th May nd May 0

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