Mayo Constituency Opinion Poll: February for Publication on 13 th February 2016

Transcription

1 Mayo Constituency Opinion Poll: February for Publication on 13 th February /Paul 1. Moran

2 2. Mayo Constituency

3 Introduction A Constituency Poll was conducted in Mayo on behalf of The Irish Independent to be published on 13 th February Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile in the constituency. Interviewing was conducted at 46 sampling points in Mayo. 502 Interviews were carried out between 9 th 11 th February 2016 Data was weighted to reflect the Mayo population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

4 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of voters representative of the Mayo electoral area - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in the home at 46 sampling points. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/ POLL Interviewing on the poll was carried out between 9 th - 11 th February 2016 The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Irish Independent. Millward Brown & The Irish Independent

5 5. The Results

6 Electorate loyal to Fine Gael, but feels unloved by Kenny This latest Irish Independent/Millward Brown constituency poll, focussing on the sprawling constituency of Mayo, was conducted between last Tuesday and Thursday. The constituency is notable for several reasons. Aside from it being the home patch of Enda Kenny, it is a Fine Gael stronghold, returning a hugely impressive four out of five seats in 2011 an unprecedented result. However, with boundary changes, Mayo has become a four seater, with John O Mahony being dispatched to contest Galway West. On the face of it, the electorate of Mayo seem more surefooted than most in terms of how they will vote Just eight percent are undecided at this stage of the campaign, and among those who have made their decision, they tend to be pretty certain in the party or candidate that they have chosen to vote for. On the basis of these results, less than two weeks out from the Election, it would seem that Fine Gael are in with a strong chance of returning its remaining incumbents in Mayo. It is a statistical dead heat between Enda Kenny and Michael Ring to top the poll, with Kenny just shading it (24pc first preference vs 23pc for Ring). The bragging rights may remain in Castlebar, but it will be a closely run battle. Coming in third position is the last of the banker seats in this constituency - Dara Calleary of Fianna Fail. In this poll he garners 19pc of the vote, and is in touching distance of the quota. As one of Fianna Fail s higher profile TDs, this is unsurprising. In 2011, Calleary gained less than 12pc (albeit in a five seater), suggesting that whilst Fianna Fail are by no means riding on the crest of a wave, the tide seems to have turned from their 2011 collapse. The question of late is whether Michelle Mulherin could hang on long enough to snatch the fourth seat. She is considered vulnerable from a couple of flanks Rose Conway-Walsh (SF) on one side and the outside chance of a second FF seat on the other. Mulherin s first preference vote, when those undecided are excluded, is nine percent. Ordinarily this could spell trouble for her. On these results she is being out-polled by Conway-Walsh (11pc), and is just marginally ahead of FF s Lisa Chambers (8pc). 6.

7 Electorate loyal to Fine Gael, but feels unloved by Kenny (Cont d) However, this is Mayo. The combined strength of the Fine Gael party is still huge; between its three candidates, it musters nearly three quotas (56pc of the declared vote). This may well be the saving grace for Mulherin. Transfer patterns, if efficiently managed, should get her over the line. Looking at second preference votes, it could be argued (if one were to nitpick) that Fine Gael could tighten up its vote management. Michael Ring and Enda Kenny, both of whom will be home and hosed early in the count, attract 42pc of the second preference votes, compared to (a not insignificant) 17pc of second preferences being directed to Mulherin. A slightly more strategic approach could be adopted to ensure a more balanced distribution of votes. Taking a step back from the party support results, this poll throws up some intriguing paradoxes. As we have seen, the electorate of Mayo remains steadfastly committed to the ruling Government party. Yet when one scratches below the surface, there is a disconnect between how they will vote, and how they feel they have been treated. Less than four in ten, 37pc, feel that Enda Kenny has looked after the interests of the people of Mayo. Even among FG supporters, positive sentiment is lukewarm at best (54pc believing this to be the case). From a regional point of view, there is also a sense that the Government has been less than kind to the West. Whilst 56pc of committed voters state they will vote Fine Gael, overall less than one in three agree that the government has focused on securing an economic recovery for the region (sharply contrasting with a significant majority who believe that there is a bias towards economic recovery on the Eastern seaboard). Among FG supporters, an underwhelming 43pc agree that Government economic policy had been beneficial to the West. Of course, these contradictions are not unique to Mayo. However, when one considers that economic considerations (management of the economy/unemployment and job creation) are the most important issue in the upcoming election for 29pc of Mayo voters (second only to Health issues), it seems that Fine Gael have the advantage of a uniquely loyal following in the county. The alternative school of thought is that for Mayo people it is a case of better the devil you know; a message that the Government has been so keen to impress upon voters throughout this campaign. 7.

8 Mayo Constituency - First preference (incl/excl Undecideds) First Preference Voting Intentions Incl. don t knows (FG) Enda Kenny 22 (FG) Michael Ring (FF) Dara Calleary (SF) Rose Conway Walsh (FG) Michelle Mulhern (FF) Lisa Chambers (Ind) Jerry Crowley (Ren) Michael Farrington (AAA/PbP) Tom Moran (Ind) Stephen Manning (Ind) Peter Jordan (Ind) Gerry O Boyle (Ind) George O Malley (GP) Margaret Sheehan Don't know Quota is 20 First Preference Voting Intentions Excl. don t knows (n=464) (FG) Enda Kenny 24 (FG) Michael Ring (FF) Dara Calleary (SF) Rose Conway Walsh (FG) Michelle Mulhern (FF) Lisa Chambers (Ind) Jerry Crowley (Ren) Michael Farrington (AAA/PbP) Tom Moran (Ind) Peter Jordan (Ind) Gerry O Boyle (Ind) George O Malley (Ind) Stephen Manning (GP) Margaret Sheehan

9 First Preference Party Support Mayo Constituency (incl/excl Undecideds) Including Don t Knows Excluding Don t Knows (n=464) Fine Gael Fine Gael Fianna Fáil 25 AAA/PbP 1 9 th 11 th February Incl. DK 11 Sinn Féin Don t know Independents/others Renua Fianna Fáil 27 AAA/PbP 1 9th 11th February Excl. DK Sinn Féin Independents/others Renua 9.

10 Mayo Constituency- Where does the second preference go? Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote (FG) Michael Ring (FG) Michelle Mulhern (FG) Enda Kenny (FF) Lisa Chambers (FF) Dara Calleary (Ind) Jerry Crowley (SF) Rose Conway Walsh (Ind) Peter Jordan (AAA/PbP) Tom Moran (Ind) Gerry O Boyle (Ren) Michael Farrington (Ind) George O Malley (GP) Margaret Sheehan (Ind) Stephen Manning Don't know Second Preference Voting Intentions incl. don t knows (n=464) (FG) Michael Ring (FG) Michelle Mulhern (FG) Enda Kenny (FF) Lisa Chambers (FF) Dara Calleary (Ind) Jerry Crowley (SF) Rose Conway Walsh (Ind) Peter Jordan (AAA/PbP) Tom Moran (Ind) Gerry O Boyle (Ren) Michael Farrington (Ind) George O Malley (GP) Margaret Sheehan (Ind) Stephen Manning Second Preference Voting Intentions Excl. don t knows (n=411)

11 Second Preference Party Support Mayo Constituency Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote Including Don t Knows (n=464) 52 Fine Gael Excluding Don t Knows (n=411) 59 Fine Gael Fianna Fáil 20 9 th 11 th February Incl. DK Don t know AAA/PbP Independents/others Sinn Féin Renua The Green Party Fianna Fáil 23 9th 11th February Excl. DK AAA/PbP Sinn Féin Independents/others Renua The Green Party 11.

12 First Preference vote X Demographics Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote Male GENDER AGE SOCIAL CLASS Female < ABC1 C2DE Farming Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Independents/others AAA/PbP Renua

13 Where do those giving a first preference allocate their second preference? Base: All who would give a First Preference and Second Preference Vote Second Preference Fine Gael FIRST PREFERENCE Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Independents/others Sinn Féin Renua AAA/PbP Green Party Caution should be exercised as base sizes are low

14 Nearly one in two in Mayo are satisfied with the Government s performance, significantly ahead of the National picture- driven by FG supporters Nearly Half in Mayo are happy with the current performance HIGHER AMONG Age Age C2s 58 Farming Community 54 Supporters of FF 79 Supporters of SF 73 Dissatisfied (62) Satisfied (29) 3 HIGHER AMONG Age C1s 62 Supporters of FG 70 Don t know (9) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 14. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

15 Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny HIGHER AMONG Age C2s 50 Supporters of FF 74 Supporters of SF 75 Dissatisfied (62) 54 Satisfied (27) HIGHER AMONG Age C1s 65 Supporters of FG Don t know (11) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 15. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

16 Satisfaction with Joan Burton HIGHER AMONG Age Dissatisfied (62) HIGHER AMONG Age C2s 70 Supporters of FF 72 Supporters of SF Satisfied (22) ABs 42 Supporters of FG Don t know (16) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) Caution should be exercised as base sizes are low 16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

17 Satisfaction with Michéal Martin HIGHER AMONG Males 50 Age C2s 49 Supporters of FG 50 Dissatisfied (48) Satisfied (27) HIGHER AMONG Age Farming Community 50 Supporters of FF 70 Supporters of SF Don t know (25) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

18 Satisfaction with Gerry Adams HIGHER AMONG Age C1s 77 Farming Community 74 Supporters of FG 77 Supporters of FF 71 Dissatisfied (55) Satisfied (27) HIGHER AMONG Age C2s 31 Supporters of SF 67 8 Don t know (18) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

19 Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Males 41 Age C2s 42 Farming Community 43 Dissatisfied (42) Satisfied (16) Age Age ABs 36 Supporters of FF 43 Supporters of SF Don t know (43) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) Caution should be exercised as base sizes are low 19. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

20 Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support SATISFIED Enda Kenny (27) Joan Burton (22) Michéal Martin (27) Gerry Adams (27) Lucinda Creighton (16) Total Supporters Supporters Supporters DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny (62) Joan Burton (62) Michéal Martin (48) Gerry Adams (51) Lucinda Creighton (42) Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland? ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)

21 Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Sinn Féin are by far the most toxic of the Parties in this constituency WOULD NOT CONSIDER Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Sinn Féin (37) AAA/PbP (16) Green Party (19) Fianna Fáil (24) Fine Gael (34) Renua (12) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 21. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in the upcoming election?

22 How certain are voters in their convictions? Prospective voters of the main parties in Mayo are resolute in their convictions Base: All Mayo Voters Fine Gael Supporters (262) Fianna Fáil Supporters (125) Sinn Fein Supporters (51) Absolutely certain Pretty certain Some reservations Not at all certain Don t know - - Net Score (Any confident minus Any doubters) Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming General Election?

23 Two in five of the Mayo Electorate cite Health services is the number one issue in the General election; similar to the National average. Economic issues are most important to nearly three in ten 1 st Mention Health Services/Hospitals (37) Management of the economy (11) Unemployment/jobs (13) Crime/Law and Order (10) The homeless situation/lack of Local Authority Housing (9) Water Charges (5) Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/cost of Rent (7) Ensuring that Enda Kenny remains as Taoiseach N/A Childcare (3) Issues within my own constituency (1) Abortion (1) Something else (1) Don't know (2) Q ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

24 When other issues of importance are added to the mix, health and the economy remain on top 1 st Mention 2 nd Mention 3 rd Mention Any Mention Health Services/Hospitals Unemployment/jobs Management of the economy Crime/Law and Order The homeless situation/lack of Local Authority Housing Water Charges Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/cost of Rent Issues within my own constituency Childcare Ensuring that Enda Kenny remains as Taoiseach Something else 1 5 Abortion 11 3 Don't know Q What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

25 Michael Ring is considered to have been the most effective TD in Mayo by far, with Enda Kenny nominated for being least effective Michael Ring Most Effective TD in Mayo 51 Enda Kenny Least Effective TD in Mayo 24 Dara Calleary 12 John O Mahony 22 Enda Kenny 11 Dara Calleary 14 Michelle Mulhern 7 Michelle Mulhern 13 John O Mahony 3 Michael Ring 2 None of them 10 None of them 7 Don't know 5 Don't know Q In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been most effective in your constituency? Q In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been least effective (in the Dail/in your area)?

26 Most effective TD x Party Support Most Effective TD in Mayo Fine Gael Supporters Fianna Fáil Supporters Sinn Fein Supporters Michael Ring Dara Calleary Enda Kenny Michelle Mulhern John O Mahony None of them Don't know Q In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been most effective in your constituency?

27 Least effective TD x Party Support Least Effective TD in Mayo Fine Gael Supporters Fianna Fáil Supporters Sinn Fein Supporters Enda Kenny John O Mahony Dara Calleary Michelle Mulhern Michael Ring None of them Don't know Q In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been least effective (in the Dail/in your area)?

28 The jury is out on how long Enda Kenny should remain as Taoiseach if he were to be elected One Year 26 Two Years 15 Three Years 13 Four Years 6 Five Years 26 It Depends 4 Don't know Q. If Enda Kenny were to be re-elected as Taoiseach, how long do you believe he should remain in that position?

29 Leo Varadkar is by far the preferred choice to become next leader of Fine Gael Leo Varadkar 46 Simon Coveney 17 Among FG Supporters: Frances Fitzgerald None of them Somebody else Leo Varadkar 50 Simon Coveney 18 Frances Fitzgerald 11 Somebody else 3 None of them 5 It depends 2 Don't know Q. Who from the following options would you like to see as the next leader of Fine Gael?

30 Over half do not believe that Enda Kenny has looked after the interests of the people of Mayo HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Age C2s 64 Supporters of FF 84 Supporters of SF 81 No Yes Age Age C1s 44 Farming Community 45 Supporters of FG 54 5 Don t know 30. Q Do you believe that Enda Kenny has looked after the interests of the people of Mayo or not?

31 Strong support in Mayo for the State to buy Westport House HIGHER AMONG Age ABs Yes HIGHER AMONG Age Age C2s 77 Supporters of FG 73 No It Depends Don t know Caution should be exercised as base sizes are low 31. Q Do you think that the State should purchase Westport House or not?

32 There is a strong belief that focus upon economic recovery in the West has been overlooked in favour of the East Strongly agree There is a strong recovery underway in the economy overall There is a strong recovery underway in the economy in Western Ireland The Government has focussed on securing an economic recovery in the West of Ireland There is too much focus made on securing an economic recovery in the East of the country 55 Somewhat agree Neither Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don t know It depends Q. Finally, I am going to read out a list of statements that have been made about the economy. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements

33 For more information, please contact: Paul Moran Millbank House Arkle Road Sandyford Dublin 18 t (1) /Paul Moran