National Opinion Poll: June for Publication on 28 th June 2015

Transcription

1 1. National Opinion Poll: June - for Publication on 28 th June

2 Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 28 th June. The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, preferred coalition options and attitudes towards abortion. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 976 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 19 th and 26 th June. Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

3 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-toface basis in the home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1 POLL The 976 interviews on the poll were carried out between 19 th and 26 th June. The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent. 3.

4 4. The Results

5 Labour is running out of road, but Sinn Fein is losing its allure 5. This Sunday Independent/Millward Brown Midsummer opinion poll, conducted up until Friday, signals fresh watermarks on several fronts that we have not seen for well over a year. Overall, satisfaction with the Government is at its highest level seen in this series of polls, even though just three in ten (29pc) are pleased with how this Government is running the country. Whilst hardly an overwhelming endorsement in itself, what is more interesting is that there has been a significant decrease in dissatisfaction down six to 63pc. The Government will seek to maintain that downward momentum, thus leveraging itself into a position of acceptability among many of their previous supporters. Looking at party support, there has been quite a few movements more recently. First off, and reflecting a more buoyant satisfaction with the administration, the combined support for the government parties is at a fifteen month high 35pc would now vote for either of them. This is up significantly from the height of the water charges controversy just back in December. Since the turn of the year, there has been a gradual ascent northwards in the polls for the coalition, although this ascent manifests itself in a far-from-even manner. Fine Gael are sitting at the top of the pile, for the second poll in a row. Their lead has stretched, and at 29pc, they have pulled clear of the chasing pack. The continuing economic good news (regardless of its obvious blemishes) certainly seems to be benefitting them more. In addition they have, so far, avoided the banana skins that they encountered so often in. For Labour, they remain stubbornly rooted in single digits. This latest poll leaves them at just six percent more or less the result they received in the disastrous local and European elections. The issue for them is of course that they are fast running out of road before the general election. In addition, any economic benefits being accrued are winging their way towards Fine Gael. It would seem that the electorate is in a very unforgiving mood towards the junior party in Government. Despite Labour s protestations about what it has done in office, the knives are sharpening in response to what it said it would do, but didn t. One suspects that Labour will have to target its potential seats very closely in the general election, as they will not gain any bounce based on populism.

6 Labour is running out of road, but Sinn Fein is losing its allure For the main opposition parties, these results will make for interesting reading. Fianna Fáil, and Micheal Martin in particular, will be relieved to see an uplift in the party s fortunes. Over the past month, Fianna Fáil has had a roller coaster journey Bobby Aylward became the party s first by- election success in close on twenty years, but this was followed by the very public, and acrimonious exit of Averil Power, and more recently the resignation from the party of the Mayor of Cork, Alan Coleman. So to see an uplift of four points to 23pc will provide some respite for the leader. However, it seems that all is not well in the Fianna Fáil family, and the next few months will be vital for Micheal Martin s authority as leader. Sinn Fein has lost much of its lustre since the turn of the year. This poll, of course, was conducted as the party was washing its dirty linen in public in Cork. The party now stands at 21pc; although this would represent its best performance in modern day general elections if it were to be replicated on the day, there has been a noticeable slip in its support since the beginning of the year. In addition, our Millward Brown Toxicity Test (whereby we ask voters who they would not vote for), suggests that Sinn Fein may be losing its allure 37pc of voters now say they would not consider the party (up five points since il). In isolation, this would not be cause for undue alarm. However, all of its main political rivals (FG, FG and Labour), have become less toxic to the electorate in the same period. In terms of satisfaction of leaders performances, most have seen an uplift of sorts in this latest Poll (Micheal Martin and Enda Kenny benefiting most; up six and five points respectively). Gerry Adams is the only leader to see his ratings drop, albeit marginally. Of course, in some ways, this is just a phoney war. We know there is a general election on the horizon, but at a date that is yet to be determined. Whilst all the parties certainly have their troops on stand-by, the public s desire (52pc) is for this current Dail to run its full term to il Not surprisingly, supporters of FG and Labour are most strident in this view. Interestingly, FF supporters also want to play the long game. 6. The question is, is the electorate being strategic in its motivations for this Dail to run full term, or is it just weary of the thought of having to endure a General Election, and all that that entails?

7 7. National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions

8 Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows General Election Result 2011 Opinion Poll 19 th 26 th June Including Don t Knows Opinion Poll 19 th 26 th June Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil The Green Party Independents/others Sinn Féin Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Independents/Others Sinn Féin Green Party Don t know Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

9 Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference 6 th 13 th 16 th 28 th Mar 4 th 14 th Mar 30 th 10 th May 5 th -16 th May 17 th 28 th June 20 th 28 th Aug 3 rd -12 th Aug 17 th -27 th Sep 13 th 25 th Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th 19 th -28 th 5 th -15 th Jul 18 th 30 th Sep 9 th -18 th Oct 21 st 31 st Dec 8 th -18 th Jan 29 th - 9 th Mar 24th - 2 nd 19 th -26 th June Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour Green Party United Left Alliance Independents/ others* * * * *Includes Renua (1), Socialist Party (2), PBP (1) 9. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

10 Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference FINE GAEL FIANNA FÁIL SINN FÉIN LABOUR GREEN PARTY INDEPENDENTS OTHERS* *ULA now included in Independents/others from late May onwards *People Before Profit now included in Independents/others (July ) Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

11 Satisfaction with the Government continues to recover in, and stands at three in ten. Dissatisfaction has slipped sharply Over one in four are happy with the Current performance HIGHER AMONG year olds 69 C2s 68 DEs 68 Dissatisfied (69) 29 Satisfied (26) HIGHER AMONG year olds 33 ABs 42 Dublin residents 40 Rest of Leinster residents 78 Fianna Fail Supporters Conn/Ulster residents 35 Fine Gael supporters 68 Sinn Fein Supporters 90 Independents Supporters 81 8 Don t know (5) Labour supporters 41 ( )= il Results 11. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

12 Satisfaction with Government Over Time results results results Mar May 5 th 16 th 13 May 17 th -28 th 13 June 20 th 28 th 13 Aug 3 rd -12 th 13 Aug 17 th -27 th 13 Sept 13 th -25 th 13 Sept 30 th - Oct 9 th 13 Nov 3 rd -13 th 13 Jan 15 th -24 th th 28 th 5 th -15 th Jul 18 th 30 th Sep 9 th 18 th Oct 21 st 31 st Dec 8 th 18 th Jan 29 th 9 th Mar 24th - 2 nd 19 th -26 th June Dissatisfied Satisfied Don t know

13 Satisfaction with Party Leaders Enda Kenny Eamon Gilmore Joan Burton* Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Lucinda Creighton Early Nov Jan Jul Sep Oct Dec 15 Mar/ th - 26 th June 15 Early Nov Jan Jul Sep Oct Dec 15 Mar/ th - 26 th June 15 Early Nov Jan Jul Sep Oct Dec 15 Mar/ th - 26 th June 15 Early Nov Jan Jul Sep Oct Dec 15 Mar/ th - 26 th June 15 Mar/ th - 26 th June 15 Satisfied Dissatisfied Don t know (9) (9) (10) (11) (13) (11) (8) (10) (12) (7) (9) (11) (16) (14) (15) (33) (22) (17) (16) (16) (11) (16) (15) (18) (19) (18) (24) (21) (17) (20) (22) (13) (19) (15) (20) (20) (21) (28) (24) (17) (20) (21) (12) (18) (36) (42) 13. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

14 Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny HIGHER AMONG DEs 64 Rest of Leinster residents 71 Fianna Fail supporters 70 Sinn Fein supporters 88 Independents supporters 74 Dissatisfied (67) 32 Satisfied (27) 59 9 Don t know (7) HIGHER AMONG ABs 38 Farming Community 38 Conn/Ulster residents 43 Fine Gael supporters 75 Labour supporters 42 ( )= il Results 14. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

15 Satisfaction with Joan Burton HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 62 C2DEs 62 Rest of Leinster residents 68 Fianna Fail supporters 63 Dissatisfied (65) Satisfied (25) HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 34 ABs 38 Dublin residents 34 Fine Gael supporters 57 Labour supporters 62 Sinn Fein supporters 88 Independents supporters Don t know (11) ( )= il Results 15. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

16 Satisfaction with Michéal Martin HIGHER AMONG year olds 52 Rest of Leinster residents 50 DEs 49 Labour supporters 55 Sinn Fein supporters 69 Independents supporters 55 Dissatisfied (57) Don t know (13) Satisfied (30) HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 47 ABs 44 Farming community 50 Conn/Ulster residents 42 Fianna Fail supporters 71 Fine Gael supporters 42 ( )= il Results 16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

17 Satisfaction with Gerry Adams HIGHER AMONG year olds 62 ABs 60 Farming community 77 Rest of Leinster residents 57 Dissatisfied (56) Satisfied (32) HIGHER AMONG Males year olds 33 C2s 36 Sinn Fein supporters 76 Fianna Fail supporters 63 Fine Gael supporters 59 Independents supporters Don t know (12) ( )= il Results 17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

18 Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton HIGHER AMONG year olds 44 Farming community 49 Rest of Leinster residents 43 Labour supporters 41 Sinn Fein supporters 45 Dissatisfied (44) Satisfied (20) Don t know (36) HIGHER AMONG year olds 27 ABs 29 Dublin residents 29 Fianna Fail supporters 30 Fine Gael supporters 26 Independents supporters 27 ( )= il Results 18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

19 Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support SATISFIED Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Lucinda Creighton Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other Party Supporters* DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Lucinda Creighton Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland? * Includes all other parties

20 Which Parties are most toxic to whom? FG, FF and Labour have become less toxic. SF however, are now the least attractive SATISFIED Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other party Supporters* Fine Gael (40) Labour (32) Fianna Fáil (30) Sinn Féin (32) Stop the Water Tax Socialist Party (16) People Before Profit (15) Renua (14) ( )= il Results * Includes all other parties 20. Q8. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

21 Less than three in ten want an Election in the Autumn Have a general election in the Autumn HIGHER AMONG year olds 35 C2DEs 35 Sinn Fein supporters 53 Independents supporters 41 It depends Run its fill term to il 2016 HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 69 ABs 58 Farming community 73 Conn/Ulster residents 72 Don t know Fianna Fail supporters 58 Fine Gael supporters 75 Labour supporters Q. Would you like to see the Government run its full term to il 2016, or have a general election in the Autumn.

22 No clear cut preferred coalition option is evident Fine Gael & Labour Combination Fianna Fáil & Independents combination Fianna Fáil & Sinn Féin Combination Fine Gael & Fianna Fáil Combination Fine Gael & Independents Combination Fianna Fáil & Labour Combination Fine Gael & Sinn Féin Combination Some Other Combination Don t know ( )= il Results * Includes all other parties 22. Q8. Which of the following combinations do you believe will form the best Government?

23 23. National Opinion Poll: June - Special Questions for Publication on 28 th June

24 Support has remained relatively steady to have a referendum on the 8 th amendment September ruary March/il June In favour HIGHER AMONG ABs 74 C2s 71 Dublin residents 73 Labour supporters 71 Sinn Fein supporters 72 Against Don t know HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 27 DEs 25 Conn/Ulster residents 24 Fianna Fail supporters Q17 Are you personally in favour, or against, holding a referendum to repeal the 8 th amendment to the Constitution, which currently gives equal right to life to the mother and the foetus?

25 Circumstances where abortion is acceptable a summary Where there is the threat of the mother s suicide In a case of when a woman has become pregnant as a result of rape Where there is a medical risk to the mother s life other than suicide Where there is a threat to the long term health of the mother Where the mother decides to have an abortion for other reasons Where the unborn child has been diagnosed with fatal foetal abnormality Early May Late May Sep Mar/ 19 th - 26 th June Early May Late May Sep Mar/ 19 th - 26 th June Early May Late May Sep Mar/ 19 th - 26 th June Early May Late May Sep Mar/ 19 th - 26 th June Early May Late May Sep Mar/ 19 th - 26 th June Mar/ 19 th - 26 th June Yes, acceptable No, unacceptable It depends Don t know Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland?

26 Is abortion acceptable where there is a threat of suicide? Three in five believe it is THREAT OF SUICIDE No, Unacceptable (21) HIGHER AMONG year olds 26 Farming community 29 Conn/Ulster residents 25 Fianna Fail supporters 24 Independents supporters 23 It depends (15) Yes, Acceptable (60) HIGHER AMONG Under 35 year olds 65 Rest of Leinster residents 65 Sinn Fein supporters 70 C2DEs 64 7 Don t know (4) ( ) = il Results 26. Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland?

27 Is abortion acceptable when pregnancy is a result of rape? Over seven in ten believe it is a five percent increase. Just one in eight oppose such a scenario PREGNANCY AS A RESULT OF RAPE HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 17 Conn/Ulster residents 20 Fianna Fail supporters 17 Labour supporters 17 Independents supporters 17 No, Unacceptable (18) 13 It depends (10) 9 6 Don t know (4) 72 Yes, Acceptable (67) HIGHER AMONG year olds 80 Rest of Leinster residents 81 Sinn Fein supporters 82 ( ) = il Results 27. Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland?

28 Is abortion acceptable when there is a medical risk to the mothers life other than suicide? Again, just one in eight rebuff this suggestion MEDICAL RISK TO MOTHERS LIFE (other than suicide) HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 17 ABs 18 Farming community 18 Dublin residents 17 Conn/Ulster residents 17 Fianna Fail supporters 16 Independents supporters 17 No, Unacceptable (14) Yes, Acceptable It depends (13) 13 9 Don t know (4) 6 72 (70) HIGHER AMONG year olds 80 Munster residents 80 Sinn Fein supporters 80 ( ) = il Results 28. Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland?

29 Is abortion acceptable when there is a threat to the long term health of the mother? Seven in ten believe it is THREAT TO LONG TERM HEALTH OF MOTHER HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 19 Farming community 18 Fianna Fail supporters 19 No, Unacceptable (14) It depends (14) Yes, Acceptable (67) HIGHER AMONG year olds 73 Munster residents 73 Sinn Fein supporters 77 6 Don t know (5) ( ) = il Results 29. Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland?

30 Is abortion acceptable when the mother decides for other reasons? A significant minority disagree MOTHER DECIDES TO HAVE ABORTION FOR OTHER REASONS HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 53 Conn/Ulster residents 50 Fianna Fail supporters 51 No, Unacceptable (41) Yes, Acceptable (32) HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 37 ABs 36 Sinn Fein supporters 38 Undecided voters It depends (20) 9 Don t know (7) ( ) = il Results 30. Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland?

31 Is abortion acceptable in the event of fatal foetal abnormality? Nearly two in three believe it is UNBORN CHILD HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED WITH A FATAL FOETAL ABNORMALITY HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 25 Farming community 21 No, Unacceptable (18) 18 It depends (14) Don t know (5) Yes, Acceptable (63) HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 68 ABs 70 Munster residents 67 Fianna Fail supporters 67 Sinn Fein supporters 67 ( ) = il Results 31. Q. Under which of the following circumstances, if any, do you feel that abortion is acceptable in Ireland?

32 For more information, please contact: Paul Moran Millbank House Arkle Road Sandyford Dublin 18 t (1)