Title: Volatile Voting Behaviour and the Potential Dealignment of Irish Politics.

Transcription

1 Title: Volatile Voting Behaviour and the Potential Dealignment of Irish Politics. Abstract: The general and presidential elections of 2011 were momentous political events in which a displeased electorate expressed its frustration, dissatisfaction and fury. Held in the milieu of an international financial crisis, nationwide instability, and the relinquishment of economic sovereignty, the results of the elections display the extent to which the Irish political system is in jeopardy. As a frustrated electorate turns its back on partisan loyalty in favour of new political directions, electoral stability is becoming a concept that can no longer be taken for granted. This increasingly volatile electoral behaviour signifies the possible dealignment of the Irish political system and warrants a detailed analysis of voter patterns, electoral outcome, and the dwindling health of Irish politics. In order analyse the possible dealignment of the Irish political system, I will examine its central contemporary and historical features. To begin, this examination will contextualise the modern political and economic crisis by briefly introducing the historic nature of Irish politics and the characteristics of Irish voting behaviour in the 20 th century. Subsequently, I will introduce the Pederson index, its suitability, and its flaws in order to familiarise the reader with the traditional method of measuring aggregate electoral volatility. Upon doing this, the examination will progress to analyse the 2011 general election, the behaviour of the Irish electorate, the manner in which it differs to the nature and result of the 2007 general election, and the extent to which it can be seen as particularly volatile in a contemporary European context. Subsequently, I will apply the same method of analysis and valuation to the 2011 presidential election, again highlighting the manner in which it reflects the dynamic of change, volatility and uncertainty which characterises the modern political system. Finally, I will examine the topic of partisan loyalty, the issues which influenced the voting behaviour of the Irish electorate, and how the findings of the analysis represent the potential dealignment of Irish politics. As a result of implementing this analytical plan I am able to present the reader with a coherent and accessible examination of the elections of 2011, their significance, and a reasonable prediction of the future of Irish politics. Fundamentally, this examination suggests that stability can no longer be taken for granted as the future of the government rests in the hands of a disaffected, disappointed and discontent electorate. I highlight the fundamental transformation of the Irish political landscape in 2011 and the manner in which this serves as evidence of the rapidly increasing dealignment of the political system, eclipsing the gradual forces that had previously been at work. 1

2 Volatile Voting Behaviour and the Potential Dealignment of Irish Politics The contemporary Irish political system is characterised by volatility, turbulence, and instability. At a period in which the primary political issue in Ireland is the fallout of an international economic crisis, the pressure and public focus on those in power has increased dramatically. As a frustrated electorate turns its back on partisan loyalty in favour of new political directions, electoral stability is becoming a concept that can no longer be taken for granted. The increasingly volatile behaviour of the Irish electorate signifies a possible dealignment of Irish politics which would entail a large portion of voters abandoning their previous partisan affiliations. Whilst many voters would be familiar with the concept of realignment, a phenomenon of party-based voting, dealignment is a more recently identified occurrence that affects the party system. According to Charles S. Mack, dealignment is the process through which the voter becomes disaffected from the political process and more likely to vote for individual candidates, renouncing their party affiliation by doing so (Mack, 2010: 53). This examination will investigate the increasing volatility of the Irish electorate and the extent to which it represents a potential dealignment of the Irish political system in the near future. In order to contextualise the potential dealignment of the Irish political system in the 21 st century, it is first necessary to briefly familiarize oneself with the historical characteristics of Irish party affiliation. The historical development of Irish party affiliation does not correspond with the Western European norm in that the growth of socio-economic cleavages was not closely related to partisan politics. Instead, party attachment proved to be a legacy of the Irish Civil War. Such attachments were passed down through generations and, as Michael Marsh of Trinity College points out, for those who are familiar with Irish political culture the question of whether someone is Fianna Fail or Fine Gael makes perfect 2

3 sense (Marsh, 2006: 3). However, this strong party attachment to the two parties has declined in recent years as the country moves farther and farther away from the bitter days of the Civil War. The combined vote of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael has declined from approximately 85% in the two general elections of 1982 (Whyte, 2007: 1) to approximately 53% in the 2011 general election (RTE, 2011: 1). Each new generation of Irish voters is proving to be less attached to a particular party, whilst party devotion is also declining amongst older voters. Whilst it is true that other parties, such as the Labour Party and those in the United Left Alliance, have made gains as voters realign themselves, it is still important to recognise, as Marsh highlights in Coakley and Gallagher s Politics in the Republic of Ireland, that only a quarter of all electors say that they feel close to a party, with a further quarter only merely inclined to a particular party (Marsh, 2010: 172). This figure is significantly lower than that of countries such as the USA, Canada and Australia, and serves to highlight the decline in party affiliation from the mid-20 th century to Despite the steady decline of partisan affiliation in Ireland, the Irish political system has been fairly stable up until recent times. However, it is important to note that the historical stability of the Irish party system does not necessarily correspond with stabile voting behaviour, as it is possible that parties drew support from different voters at different times. Indeed, Richard Sinnot highlights a slow decline in inter-election voting consistency from a high of 90% in 1969, based on data collected 2 years after the election which may, as such, be exaggerated (Sinnot, 1995: 146). Whilst this may suggest that some degree of volatility has existed in the Irish political system in the past, nothing similar to recent developments has ever been recorded, as an analysis of historical measures of aggregate electorate volatility will reveal. Such an analysis will provide a historical context for an examination of contemporary volatility. 3

4 Aggregate electoral volatility is traditionally measured with the Pedersen Index. This index adds the absolute values of the aggregate gains of all winning parties to the aggregate losses of all losing parties, and divides by two. However, as Peter Mair points out on the Irish political reform website, this measure of net volatility is prone to underestimating the total amount of change, as party A s losses to party B can be offset by its gains from party C (Mair, 2011: 1). Nevertheless, the Pedersen Index provides an almost instant assessment of voter volatility and is convenient when it comes to comparing levels of change in contemporary elections with those in the more distant past. With regard to the Irish case, calculating the level of electoral volatility is somewhat problematic. In the first instance, the index conflicts PR-STV by only considering first preference votes. In the second, it is necessary to treat the Independents as if they constituted a conventional political party. A measurement of historical levels of Irish electoral volatility reveals that before the 2011 general election aggregate volatility largely conformed to the west European mean: 8.1% against a west European average of 9.4% in the 1980s, 11.7% against 11.3% in the 1990s, 7.5% against 10.5% in the past decade (Mair, 2011: 2). Such figures signify the significance of the momentous result of the 2011 general election and the fundamental change in the level of Irish electoral volatility. The 2011 general election was a momentous political event that represented a significant shift in the behaviour of the Irish electorate. In a pivotal display of its disaffection with the habitual fashion of Irish politics, the public emphatically swept Fianna Fail from power in the worst defeat of an incumbent government in the history of the state. Whilst the results of the general election are significant when they are considered independently, they become even more so when they are contrasted with the results of the 2007 general election. The following table exhibits the results of the 2011 general election along with the 4

5 volatility of the vote on a party-by-party basis, as they are presented by Peter Mair (2011: 2) on the political reform website: Party % of the vote % of the vote in 2007 in 2011 Change Fianna Fail Fine Gael Labour The Green Party Sinn Fein Progressive Democrats 2.7 n/a -2.7 Socialist Party People Before Profit n/a Others Independents Table 1: Aggregate electoral change in Ireland, (Mair, 2011: 2) When the total loss of Fianna Fail, the Green Party and the Progressive Democrats is calculated and added to the combined gains of the winning parties and then divided by two, a volatility level of 29.6% is recorded. This figure places Ireland on the list of the 10 most volatile elections in the history of post-war Europe s long-established democracies, as presented by the following table which is comprised of data published by Peter Mair (2011: 3): 5

6 Country Year Level of Volatility (%) Italy Netherlands Ireland France Italy Netherlands Italy Netherlands Denmark Germany Table 2: The Most Volatile Elections in Post-War Europe (Mair, 2011: 3) As the table reveals, the 2011 general election was not only volatile with regard to the historical behaviour of the Irish electorate, but it emerged as the third most volatile election in Europe since Furthermore, it is one of the few elections on the list in which high volatility occurred in the absence of a major new party suddenly storming the polls or in the absence of major constitutional upheaval (Mair, 2011: 2). Such a revelation is particularly pertinent with regard to the possible dealignment of the Irish political system, as it suggests that the Irish electorate have become exceptionally disillusioned with ingrained politics of the state in a considerably short period of time. The momentous general election of 2011 was followed 8 months later by a presidential election which proved to be of no less salience with regard to erratic voter behaviour. The election, which was contended by a record number of 7 candidates, has been referred to as the most fractious presidential election campaign since the republic was founded (McDonald, 2011: 1). Whilst some might have expected such a turbulent election given the political atmosphere of Ireland in 2011, nothing quite highlighted the true 6

7 volatility of the electorate like the dramatic swing of the final days of the election. Prior to the final few days of the campaign, Sean Gallagher, an independent candidate, stood out as the favourite to win the presidency. According to the final Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll to be taken before voting began, Gallagher commanded 40% of the vote, representing a 15 point lead over his closest rival, Michael D. Higgins of the Labour Party (Collins, 2011a: 1). However, during the final televised debate held 3 days before voting, Gallagher was accused of collecting a 5000 cheque from a convicted fuel-smuggler for a Fianna Fail fundraising event. Subsequently, Gallagher s 15 point opinion poll lead was shattered and Higgins ultimately won the election with an 11 point victory. Gay Mitchell, the Fine Gael candidate, gave one of the worst electoral performances in Fine Gael history, less than a year after the party experienced the greatest electoral triumph in its history, becoming the largest party in the state. Even in Mitchell s own Dublin South Central constituency he only attracted about one in eight votes (Irish Examiner, 2011: 1). The result represents an unmitigated disaster for Fine Gael and a triumph for the Labour Party, which performed somewhat disappointingly in the general election. Whilst the election can been seen as a victory for the coalition as a whole, it is important to recognise that it represents the volatility of the Irish electorate and the reality that Fine Gael s status as the biggest party in the Republic can be taken away by the voters as quickly as it was granted (Collins, 2011b: 3). The volatility of the electorate was reinforced by the results of the two elections which were held on the same day: in one the government enjoyed a comfortable victory; in the other it suffered a shocking defeat. The ability for a large portion of the electorate to completely change their preference following a fundamentally important general election and even only a few days the election at hand is a sign that it is growing increasingly volatile and acting in a way that is independent from the influence of partisan loyalty. This dynamic of change, volatility and 7

8 political uncertainty represents the growing possibility of dealignment in the Irish political system. Partisan loyalty is the critical point that must be placed at the centre of any assessment of alignment or dealignment. As this examination has already highlighted, partisan loyalty is decreasing in Ireland and has been for some while. This is not unique in Europe. The generational effect, which sees each generation becoming more dealigned than its predecessor, has been at work for decades, according to research done by Peter Mair and Michael Marsh (2004: 242). However, whilst Mair and Marsh point out that available data suggest that some degree of dealignment began to take place sometime during the 1960s or 1970s, it is the contention of this examination that any such process is not comparable to the situation with which Irish politics is faced today. Whereas political parties have had to deal with a more or less (Mair and Marsh, 2004: 239) dealigned electorate and an increasing level of volatility in the past, such a dramatic increase of voter volatility as that of recent years, compounded by a strong public sense of discontent, is an entirely new challenge for the Irish party system. This discontent has stemmed largely from the Irish financial crisis and the manner in which it was dealt with by the government. As such, one can look towards the economy and its problematizing impact on Irish politics as a key factor in the dramatic increase of voter volatility and potential significant dealignment. The Irish financial crisis has been the most salient political topic in the state since Ireland first fell into a recession. The rise in unemployment, the implementation of austerity measures, and the necessity of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout have inflamed the electorate s discontent with the Irish government. Indeed, 49% of those who took a Millward Brown exit poll after voting in the 2011 general election said that the economy was the deciding factor in their vote, whilst a further 36% said that their anger and 8

9 disappointment was their primary influence (Millward Brown, 2011: 26). The dynamic of distemper and dissatisfaction is the condition necessary to extinguish partisan loyalty. It is the condition of voter discontent and electoral impatience that will lead to dramatic levels of voter volatility which will, in-turn, inevitably result in the dealignment of Irish politics. As the results of the 2011 general election reveal, Fianna Fail, the party that presided over the Celtic Tiger and the subsequent financial crisis, was emphatically expelled from power in a manner that has no parallels in the history of the Irish state. Parties such as People Before Profit and the Socialist Party have made gains in the wake of the crisis, whilst Fine Gael and Labour, Fianna Fail s two biggest rivals, have made significant advances. This is the essence of dealignment; the mass desertion of partisanship and change of preference by a large portion of the electorate. Indeed, in the build-up to the election there existed a general opposition that suggested that a large number of the electorate were primarily concerned with ending Fianna Fail s hegemony, with the suggestion that some were simply voting against the party as opposed to realigning their partisan affiliation. The primary issue promoting this sentiment was the financial crisis and its fallout. As such, this is the primary issue that has laid the groundwork for a significant electoral shift that could see the Irish political system become dealigned in the near future. In order to understand why the electorate voted with such volatility, it is necessary to continue to examine the issues that influenced the voters in the 2011 general election. The nature of such issues will reveal whether the dramatic volatility of 2011 will be avoided in future or if it will be replicated and inevitably lead to dealignment. As it has already been said, a large portion of the vote was cast in response to the financial crisis. According to the Millward Brown poll, of the top 8 issues that influenced voters, 6 are directly related to the economy, whilst the other 2 are related to the government s handling of the crisis (Millward 9

10 Brown, 2011: 27). Most significantly, 23% of those polled said that they were angry with the government and the political system (Millward Brown, 2011: 27). Such figures suggest that voter volatility in 2011 is irrevocably connected to dealignment. Further polling data reveals that 41% of voters voted as a means of choosing between the policies set out by the parties, as opposed to the parties themselves, compared to only 24% in 2007 (Millward Brown, 2011: 33). This signifies the growing importance of individual policies and the significantly diminished importance of party identity and loyalty. The reality that the financial crisis was the fundamental issue behind the election is of great pertinence as it is an issue that is likely to remain as a thorn in the side of any government for years to come. The decision of voters to vote as a protest against the former government s inability to solve the country s economic problems suggests that voter volatility will continue in the future, as it is unlikely that the government will be able to significantly improve the state of the Irish economy or renege upon any existing austerity measures over the next 4 years. The Irish political system is resting on very unstable ground. Stability can no longer be taken for granted as the future of the government rests in the hands of a disaffected, disappointed and discontent electorate. It is an electorate that is no longer securely bound by partisan loyalty. It is an electorate that is primarily concerned with repairing an economy that is likely to be considerably weakened for some time to come. As well as the big issue at hand, the voters of Ireland appear to be open to persuasion according to the balance of short-term forces (Marsh 2006: 18). Such a reality will see the electorate continue to behave erratically as the government invariably fails to meet its expectations, resulting in significant changes for the Irish political system. The 2011 general election was the ground for an electoral shift of a scale which is unprecedented in Europe. The Presidential election reaffirmed the volatile mood of the electorate. The year as a whole witnessed a 10

11 fundamental transformation of the Irish political landscape that serves as evidence of the rapidly increasing dealignment of the political system, eclipsing the gradual forces that had previously been at work. 11

12 Bibliography Collins, S. (2011a), Gallagher in commanding lead, latest Áras poll shows, The Irish Times, Collins, S. (2011b), Volatile electorate leaves parties with much to ponder, The Irish Times, Irish Examiner (2011), Higgins in poll position as Mitchell sees campaign crash, Mack, C. S. (2010), When political parties die: a cross-national analysis of disalignment and realignment. California: ABC-CLIO. Mair, P. (2011), One of Europe s Most Volatile Elections, Political Reform, Mair, P. and Marsh, M. (2004), Political Parties in Electoral Markets in Postwar Ireland, in Mair, P. et al. (eds.), Political Parties and Electoral Change, pp , London: Sage Publications. Marsh, M. (2006), Party identification in Ireland: an insecure anchor for a floating party system, Electoral Studies, Vol. 25, no. 3, pp Marsh, M. (2010), Voting Behaviour, in J. Coakley and M. Gallagher (eds.), Politics in the Republic of Ireland, pp , Oxon: Routledge. Milward Brown. (20110, General Election 2011: Exit Poll, RTE News RTE News (2011), Election 2011: national summary, election2011/results/index.html Sinnot, R. (1995), Irish Voters Decide: voting behaviour in elections and referendums since Manchester: Manchester UP. Whyte, N. (2007), Dáil elections since 1918, Access Research Knowledge, 12