National Opinion Poll: July for Publication on 2 nd August 2015

Transcription

1 1. National Opinion Poll: July for Publication on 2 nd August 2015

2 Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 2 nd August The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, attitudes towards Greece, and opinions on the rising economy. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 976 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 19 th and 30 th July Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

3 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-toface basis in the home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1 POLL The 976 interviews on the poll were carried out between 19 th and 30 th July The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent

4 4. The Results

5 Wind taken out of Fine Gael s Sails Even though the Dáil is now in recess, and many of our parliamentarians are on their summer break, there has still been plenty of activity to focus the minds of both the Government and the Opposition politicians recently. This latest Millward Brown opinion poll conducted over an eleven day period up until Thursday, coincided with the ongoing Banking Inquiry and the Eurostat judgement on Irish Water. Our more recent tracking polls had suggested that Fine Gael were beginning to pull away from the chasing pack, opening up a gap from its rivals. However, this July poll suggests that that momentum has come to a shuddering halt. The Senior Government party has shed five points in this latest snapshot, and now stands at 24pc; its lowest rating seen this year. It would seem that the Eurostat judgement in particular has taken the wind out of FG s sails. Following on from a disastrous 2014, where there was a cacophony of errors (take your pick from Shatter, Cullinan, Irish Water or McNulty), FG had seemed to have steadied its ship. They will hope that these latest findings are a blip, and that the summer recess will dilute the embarrassment of that judgement. Yet the continuing protestations, from Fine Gael ministers in particular, that this ruling is not a setback seems to be compounding public ire. Another school of thought is that the ongoing Banking Inquiry has done the party no favours either. The Inquiry was set up very much under FG s terms. The public undoubtedly wanted to see some sort of retribution, or at the very least, an Inquiry that would bare its teeth. Instead there is a sense of a missed opportunity (regardless of the powers and remit of the Inquiry). Prominent members of Fianna Fail s previous administration have deftly sidestepped any hard punches that the Inquiry has attempted to land. In addition, those who appeared from within the banking sector are perceived by some to have escaped lightly. Labour, at seven percent, are surviving on the voting intentions of its die hard supporters. In essence, its floating vote has long since abandoned them the most recent debacle of Irish Water was not really going to damage them any more grievously than the past four years has. 5.

6 Wind taken out of Fine Gael s Sails (Cont d) On the basis of these results, the current administration could rely on just 31pc of the vote if a general election were to be called. Ironically however, the proportion of people who think that this Government could gain a second term has risen (up nine to 27pc). That said, with just over a quarter of the population seeing such a future, the signs are ominous (interestingly, among the Government s own supporters, just 51pc of FG supporters and 40pc of Labour supporters envisage this scenario. Hardly a ringing endorsement). In tandem with these results, overall satisfaction with the Government s performance has taken a hit just one in four are happy; down four points since last month. Fianna Fail will be relatively happy with this showing. For the second Poll in a row, they register 23pc support, and will hope that there are signs of consolidation. They will feel they escaped relatively unscathed from the legacy of previous administrations at the Banking Inquiry. Sinn Fein have remained static at 21pc. They have not been overly damaged by their support for Syriza s policies in Greece just three in ten feel SF s stance has been detrimental to the party. The largest increase in support in this poll is for Independents/Other Parties. Combined support is up four points to 24pc. They will no doubt be a formidable grouping in the 32 nd Dail, although exactly how formidable is still up for discussion. They will win many seats on merit and localised issues, but transfers could prove their downfall their actual vote will not reflect their Dail representation. With a general election looming, there is a three horse race emerging, along with the added spice of the Independents/other parties. The next Dáil has the potential to be a very fractured affair, and its stability will be a key concern. 6.

7 Wind taken out of Fine Gael s Sails (Cont d) Looking at the toxicity of the parties (that is, who people would not vote for), all of the establishment parties have taken a hit in July - more people are saying they would definitely not vote for FG, Labour or Fianna Fail. Interestingly, there has been a softening of antagonism towards the more overtly left wing parties Sinn Fein, the Socialist Party and People before Profit have all seen a decrease in their toxicity this month. Turning again to Irish Water- the gift that keeps giving to the Opposition parties- we asked whether the water charges programme will be implemented or not. Opinion is polarised 37pc say it will continue, and 36pc believing it will be abolished. Even among FG and Labour supporters, there is no clear support for the current programme to continue. Many within Government must feel that something has to change, as the current arrangement is not working, and has the potential to sink the legacy of this administration. The thing is, is it too late? 7.

8 8. National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions

9 Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows General Election Result Feb 2011 Opinion Poll 19 th -30 th July Including Don t Knows Opinion Poll 19th-30th July Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael 36 Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Labour 19 Independents/Others* Fianna Fáil The Green Party Independents/others Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Green Party Don t know *Independents and others include Socialist Party 2, People before Profit 1, Renua 1 and Social Democrats < Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

10 Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Feb 16 th 28 th 2013 Mar 4 th 14 th 2013 Mar 30 th Apr 10 th 2013 May 5 th -16 th 2013 May 17 th 28 th 2013 June 20 th 28 th 2013 Aug 3 rd -12 th 2013 Aug 17 th -27 th 2013 Sep 13 th 25 th 2013 Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th 2014 Feb 19 th -28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th 2014 Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th -18 th 2014 Oct 21 st 31 st 2014 Dec 8 th -18 th 2014 Jan 29 th -Feb 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd th -26 th June th-30 th July 2015 Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour Green Party United Left Alliance Independents/ others* * * Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

11 Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference FINE GAEL FIANNA FÁIL SINN FÉIN LABOUR GREEN PARTY INDEPENDENTS OTHERS* *ULA now included in Independents/others from late May onwards *People Before Profit now included in Independents/others (July 2014) Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

12 Satisfaction with the Government has dipped in July, with two in three unhappy with the Government s performance Only one in four are happy with the Current performance HIGHER AMONG year olds 75 DEs 76 Leinster Residents 75 Fianna Fáil Supporters 80 Sinn Fein Supporters 91 Independents Supporters 88 Dissatisfied (63) Satisfied 25 (29) 67 8 Don t know (8) HIGHER AMONG year olds 30 ABs 38 Farming Community 31 Dublin Residents 40 Fine Gael Supporters 76 Labour Supporters 48 ( ) = June 2015 Results 12. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

13 Satisfaction with Government Over Time 2013 results 2014 results 2015 results Apr 13 May 5 th 16 th 13 May 17 th -28 th 13 June 20 th 28 th 13 Aug 3 rd -12 th 13 Aug 17 th -27 th 13 Sept 13 th -25 th 13 Sept 30 th - Oct 9 th 13 Nov 3 rd -13 th 13 Jan 15 th -24 th 14 Feb 19 th 28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th 2013 Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th 18 th 2014 Oct 21 st 31 st 2014 Dec 8 th 18 th 2014 Jan 29 th Feb 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd th -26 th June th -30 th July 2015 Dissatisfied Satisfied Don t know

14 Satisfaction with Party Leaders Enda Kenny Eamon Gilmore Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Lucinda Creighton Jan Feb Apr Jul Sep Oct Dec Feb Mar/ Apr 19 th - 26 th June 19 th - 30 th July Jan Feb Apr Jul Sep Oct Dec Feb Mar/ Apr 19 th - 26 th June 19 th - 30 th July Jan Feb Apr Jul Sep Oct Dec Feb Mar/ Apr 19 th - 26 th June 19 th - 30 th July Jan Feb Apr Jul Sep Oct Dec Feb Mar/ Apr 19 th - 26 th June 19 th - 30 th July Mar/ Apr 19 th - 26 th June 19 th - 30 th July Satisfied Dissatisfied Don t know (9) (10) (11) (13) (11) (8) (10) (12) (7) (9) (9) (16) (14) (15) (33) (22) (17) (16) (16) (11) (16) (14) (18) (19) (18) (24) (21) (17) (20) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (20) (21) (28) (24) (17) (20) (21) (12) (18) (19) (36) (42) (47) 14. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

15 Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny HIGHER AMONG year olds 72 C2DEs 71 Leinster Residents 72 Munster Residents 71 Fianna Fáil Supporters 79 Sinn Féin Supporters 94 Independents Supporters 81 Dissatisfied (59) Satisfied 25 (32) 66 9 Don t know (9) HIGHER AMONG year olds 29 ABs 37 C1s 30 Dublin Residents 32 Fine Gael Supporters 72 Labour Supporters 46 ( )= June 2015 Results 15. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

16 Satisfaction with Joan Burton HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 71 C2s 70 Farming Community 77 Leinster Residents 73 Dissatisfied (57) Satisfied (26) HIGHER AMONG ABC1s 28 Dublin Residents 30 Fine Gael Supporters 54 Labour Supporters 47 Fianna Fáil Supporters 81 Sinn Fein Supporters 89 Independents Supporters Don t know (16) ( )= June 2015 Results 16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

17 Satisfaction with Michéal Martin HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 56 Sinn Fein Supporters 69 Independents Supporters 69 Dissatisfied (45) Satisfied (36) HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 53 ABs 37 Farming Community 50 Fianna Fáil Supporters 73 Fine Gael Supporters 41 Labour Supporters Don t know (19) ( )= June 2015 Results 17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

18 Satisfaction with Gerry Adams HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 58 ABs 67 Farming Community 59 Fianna Fáil Supporters 59 Fine Gael Supporters 67 Independents Supporters 66 Dissatisfied (52) Satisfied (30) 19 Don t know (18) HIGHER AMONG Males year olds year olds 34 C2DEs 35 Farming Community 36 Leinster Residents 35 Sinn Féin Supporters 81 ( )= June 2015 Results 18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

19 Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 41 Dublin Residents 42 Independents Supporters 43 Dissatisfied (37) Satisfied (21) HIGHER AMONG year olds 22 C1s 20 Farming Community 33 Fianna Fáil Supporters 22 Fine Gael Supporters Don t know (42) Labour Supporters 27 ( )= June 2015 Results 19. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

20 Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support SATISFIED Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Lucinda Creighton Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other Party Supporters* DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Lucinda Creighton Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland? * Includes all other parties

21 Which Parties are most toxic to whom? FG, FF and Labour have become more toxic. Negativity towards left wing parties has softened WOULD NOT CONSIDER Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other party Supporters* Fine Gael (32) Labour (30) Fianna Fáil (24) Sinn Féin (37) Stop the Water Tax Socialist Party (18) People Before Profit (15) Renua (13) ( )= June 2015 Results * Includes all other parties 21. Q8. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

22 Despite satisfaction with the Government dropping, more now feel that the current could win a second term (albeit still in a minority) HIGHER AMONG No, it will not win a second term (55) 27 Yes, it will win a second term (16) HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 54 DEs year olds year olds 31 Farming Community 54 ABs 34 Munster Residents 51 Fianna Fáil Supporters 65 Sinn Féin Supporters Don t know (19) Farming Community 34 Leinster Residents 32 Fine Gael Supporters 51 Independents Supporters 58 It depends (10) Labour Supporters 40 ( ) = December 2014 results 22. Q. Do you think that the present Fine Gael/Labour Government will, or will not, win a second term in office whenever the next general election?

23 23. National Opinion Poll: July Special Questions for Publication on 2 nd August 2015

24 Are Private and Public sector wage increases warranted? Very little change in opinion since April, with private sector increases still seen as being more deserving Yes Sept PRIVATE SECTOR Apr 15 July HIGHER AMONG year olds 50 ABs 50 Leinster Residents 53 Fianna Fáil Supporters 49 Fine Gael Supporters 48 Labour Supporters 48 Sinn Féin Supporters 49 Yes Sept PUBLIC SECTOR Apr 15 July HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 43 ABs 47 Leinster Residents 45 Fine Gael Supporters 46 Labour Supporters 44 No Don t know HIGHER AMONG year olds 47 ABs 42 Farming Community 46 Conn/Ulster Residents Fianna Fáil Supporters Independents Supporters No Don t know HIGHER AMONG year olds 51 Farming Community 53 Conn/Ulster Residents Fianna Fáil Supporters Independents Supporters Undecided Voters 41 Q 24. Do you think there has been sufficient improvement in the economy to merit wage increases in the PRIVATE sector? Q And do you think there has been sufficient improvement in the economy to merit wage increases in the PUBLIC sector?

25 If money is to be given back from the exchequer, Income Tax and USC reductions are now the preferred options Base: All Aged 18+ (April: 971 & July:976) July 2015 Main Priority April 2015 What they should do first What they should do next Total Reduce Income Tax (22) Reduce the level of USC (27) Reduce water charges (27) Reduce Property Tax (11) Reduce PRSI (7) Something Else (3) Don t know (2) Q The Government has suggested that as the economy improves, there will be scope for giving money back to people. Which of the following would you prefer that they did first. And what should they do next?

26 Personal situation: one in six feel they are better off than last year, and nearly one in five feel they will be better off next year Base: All aged 18+ (976) JULY 2014 Compared to last year This time next year? JULY 2016 Better Off 16 Better Off 19 Worse off Same 39 Same 41 Worse off 26. HIGHER AMONG year olds 50 DEs 50 Leinster Residents 46 Sinn Féin Supporters 56 Independents Supporters 50 Worse Off Don t know Net Change Q. Taking everything into consideration would you say you are personally better off, worse off or in the same situation as you were THIS TIME LAST YEAR? Worse Off Don t know Net Difference HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 34 DEs 34 Leinster Residents 36 Conn/Ulster Residents 35 Sinn Féin Supporters 40 Independents Supporters Undecided Voters 33 Q. This time NEXT YEAR, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now? 33

27 Historical Picture: Personal Situation Compared To This Time Last Year Base: All aged 18+ (976) COMPARED TO LAST YEAR BETTER OFF SAME WORSE OFF Pre Celtic Tiger '92 Mid Celtic Post 9/11 Tiger '97 '02 Sep '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Sep '09 Mar '10 Sep '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sep '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 Net Change Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now?

28 Historical Picture: Personal Situation This Time Next Year Base: All aged 18+ (976) THIS TIME NEXT YEAR? BETTER OFF SAME WORSE OFF Pre Celtic Tiger ' Mid Celtic Tiger ' Post 9/11 '02 Sept '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Set '09 Mar '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Dec'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Dec '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 NET DIFFERENCE Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now?

29 Opinion is somewhat divided on whether Sinn Fein has been damaged by its association and support for Syriza HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 42 Sinn Féin Supporters 58 Independents Supporters 48 No, has not been damaged Yes, has been damaged HIGHER AMONG 65+ year olds 37 ABs 40 Fianna Fáil Supporters 43 Fine Gael Supporters 37 Labour Supporters Don t know 29. Q. Do you think that Sinn Fein has been damaged or not by its support of Syriza in Greece?

30 Just three in ten approve of the Government s stance during the Greek Bailout negotiations HIGHER AMONG Males year olds 45 Farming Community 46 Conn/Ulster Residents 55 Sinn Féin Supporters 50 No, do not approve Yes, approve HIGHER AMONG ABs 44 Leinster Residents 40 Fianna Fáil Supporters 34 Fine Gael Supporters 43 Labour Supporters 35 Independents Supporters Don t know 30. Q. Do you approve of the stance taken by the Government during the Greek Bailout negotiations?

31 Half feel the Greek people have been treated unfairly by Europe HIGHER AMONG year olds 51 Farming Community 56 Conn/Ulster Residents 53 Sinn Féin Supporters 65 Independents Supporters 58 No, have not been treated fairly Yes, have been treated fairly HIGHER AMONG year olds year olds 32 ABs 40 Leinster Residents 31 Fianna Fáil Supporters 33 Fine Gael Supporters Don t know Labour Supporters Q. In your opinion, do you think the Greek people have been treated fairly by Europe or not?

32 Likewise, many feel the Greek Government has been treated unfairly by Europe HIGHER AMONG Males year olds 49 Farming Community 53 Leinster Residents 51 Conn/Ulster Residents 51 No, have not been treated fairly Yes, have been treated fairly HIGHER AMONG year olds 33 ABs 42 Leinster Residents 31 Fine Gael Supporters 41 Labour Supporters 46 Fianna Fáil Supporters 52 Sinn Féin Supporters 62 Independents Supporters Don t know 32. Q. In your opinion, do you think the Greek Government, led by Syriza, have been treated fairly by Europe or not?

33 The Water charges saga remains as divisive as ever opinion is split as to whether they will be implemented or not HIGHER AMONG year olds 39 DEs 43 Leinster Residents 39 Sinn Féin Supporters 49 Independents Supporters 43 Will be abolished Will be fully implemented HIGHER AMONG year olds 41 ABs 51 Farming Community 44 Conn/Ulster Residents 43 Fine Gael Supporters 47 It depends 18 9 Don t know 33. Q. And do you think that the water charges programme will be fully implemented over time, or will they be eventually be abolished?

34 For more information, please contact: Paul Moran Millbank House Arkle Road Sandyford Dublin 18 t (1)