National Opinion Poll: December for Publication on 16 th December /PM

Transcription

1 National Opinion Poll: December - for Publication on 16 th December /PM 1

2 Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 16 th December. The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, attitudes towards Brexit and our perceptions of the economic recovery. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 920 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 1 st 13 th December. Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

3 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 920 adults representative of the approximate 3.57 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in-home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.2 The 920 interviews in the poll were carried out between 1 st 13 th December. The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. POLL Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent. 3

4 The Results

5 Sympathy for Hapless May shows tables have turned. Ordinarily, publishing an Opinion Poll two Sundays before Christmas would seem pointless the public have more pressing concerns to address. In some respects, this holds through in this latest Kantar Millward Brown Opinion Poll. But in defence, these are extra-ordinary times. We seem to have taken our eye off the ball regarding Domestic Politics the proportion of those not having an opinion has risen sharply (29pc undecided). Of course, this may be more to do with us being enthralled by what is happening across the water, because, let s face it, it s the only political show in town. We have a front row seat at the circus, mesmerised by Theresa May s trapeze performance Looking up and half wondering do we want her to pull off the trick or fall? Yet aghast if she should fall into our front row seats, without a safety net in sight. Interesting times. Turning back to ourselves, so as an end of year report for the Government how does the domestic pantomime compare? On the face of it, this poll suggests an electorate that is relatively becalmed. Conducted in the first two weeks of December, there are few changes on the surface compared to our previous poll. However, scratching beneath the surface, there are some interesting shifts. Fine Gael maintain their healthy lead over their Partners in the confidence and supply agreement. FG at 32pc still hold sway, with FF at 27pc. So clear blue water there. But looking at the longer term, this Poll suggests that Leo Varadkar s honeymoon period is at an end. Over this year, the support for FG has slipped, incrementally, but slipped all the same. This also manifests itself in terms of satisfaction with the Government. Dissatisfaction is creeping upwards again, and now half (49pc) of the population are unhappy. In a time of economic boom (for some), this must surely be a concern. Coupled with this, Varadkar s personal satisfaction rating is also shedding points. Although, in all fairness, none of the party leaders paint themselves in glory. 5

6 Sympathy for Hapless May shows tables have turned (Cont d). It would seem to suggest that there are parallel universes for the Government how they perform on the international (European) stage, and how they are faring domestically. Whilst Varadkar, Coveney, McEntee et al are flying the flag and wearing the green jersey in Strasbourg, we still have the spectacle of a homelessness crisis on our front door, a dysfunctional health service and people hearing about, but not experiencing an economic phoenix rising from the ashes. Keeping the recovery going for many seems as hollow as it did two and a half years ago. Sinn Fein remain stubbornly rooted in the low twenties. However, Sinn Fein are the political equivalent of Bitcoin often speculated on, but generally overrated when the time comes to cash in at the ballot box. For Labour, there is no momentum at all. They remain in the doldrums at 5pc and are struggling to resonate with the electorate. It would seem at this juncture that they are being picked off from all spectrums of the political hue. Interestingly, Independents/other parties have gained five points (now standing at 13pc). Whilst they are a far cry from where they were in the General Election of, this poll would suggest that the electorate may be gravitating back towards them. And so, to Brexit. We have tracked the public s opinion towards who the potential winners and losers will be over the past 18 months, and opinions have fluctuated sharply as the drama has unfolded. When the UK voted to leave the EU in June of, many on this side of the Irish Sea were aghast at this seemingly reckless act the economic and diplomatic equivalent of Hari Kari. In the aftermath of the referendum vote, it was obvious that the British establishment, and the Tories in particular, were in disarray. Notwithstanding this, there was a nagging sense that things across the water would eventually iron themselves out, and that the UK would steer its way successfully through the troubled waters of negotiations. 6

7 Sympathy for Hapless May shows tables have turned (Cont d). Initially, in April 2017, nearly one in four (23pc) felt that the UK would come out of negotiations with a more beneficial deal, versus just 15pc saying the EU would have the upper hand. How times have changed. In this latest poll, just one in ten feel the UK will benefit, versus 25pc giving the nod to the EU. This is hardly surprising. The Tories are in meltdown, and not for the first time in relation to the European Adventure, open revolt and civil war is the order of the day. The UK s Brexit strategy is both rudderless and clueless. For many of us on this side, there is in some respects a certain sense of amusement at the turmoil besetting the Conservatives. That the Irish Border issue is scuttling negotiations adds to this sense of schadenfreude. Not for the first time has the Irish Question confounded UK politics history has this uncanny knack of repeating itself. Of course, we need to be careful of what we wish for. A Hard Exit from the EU will have disastrous implications for our nearest neighbours, but we will undoubtedly suffer as collateral damage. You know that times are bad for our neighbours when you hear people on this side of the pond expressing sympathy and a begrudging respect for the leader of the Conservative party. She is the modern-day equivalent of our own 19 treaty negotiations with the David Lloyd George Government Coming back to try and sell a deeply divisive deal under nearly impossible circumstances. Reflecting this, there is a sense of foreboding of what may lie ahead; we are becoming much more pessimistic of the end result as time runs out. Over one in three of us (35pc) feel that neither the EU or the UK will benefit as a result of Brexit. In essence, we are worried. We hope that the EU will hold the line and continue to fight the corner for Ireland. Our diplomats have put in the hard yards over the past few years, and it seems to be bearing fruit. That is not to say that we slavishly believe that the EU is a white knight in shining armour we are quite pragmatic about this Over three in four (77pc) agree that the EU has more control over our economic situation than our own Government. It would seem that while these are good and collaborative times in our relationship with the EU, we are still painfully aware of who is really pulling the strings. 7

8 National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions

9 Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows Base: All Aged 18+ (920) General Election Result Opinion Poll December Including Don t Knows Opinion Poll December Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael 26 Fine Gael 24 Fine Gael 32 Labour Fianna Fáil Green Party Independents/others Renua Ireland AAA-PBP Social Democrats Sinn Féin Labour Fianna Fáil Green Party Sinn Féin Others Don t know Labour Fianna Fáil Green Party Sinn Féin Others Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 9

10 Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Independents/Others: October ruary 2017 July 2017 ruary April December Solidarity-PBP Social Democrats 1 2 * 1 * 2 Independent Candidates/ Other Parties Independent Alliance June 20 th 28 th 2013 Aug 3 rd -12 th 2013 Aug 17 th -27 th 2013 Sep 13 th 25 th 2013 Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th th -28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th 2014 Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th -18 th 2014 Oct st 31 st 2014 Dec 8 th -18 th 2014 Jan 30th - 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd th -26 th June th-30 th July th Oct- 6 th Nov th Jan- 4 th General Election 18 th -30 th June 8 th -20 th Oct 6 th -16 th th-st July th -14 th 18 th -30 th April 1 st -13 th Dec Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour Green Party Independents/ others* * Includes all other parties Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 10

11 Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Independents/Others: Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party Independents/Others* October ruary 2017 July 2017 ruary April December Solidarity-PBP Social Democrats 1 2 * 1 * 2 Independent Candidates/ Other Parties Independent Alliance Jun 20th- Aug 3rd- Aug 17th- Sep 13th- Sep 30th- 28th th th th 2013 Oct 9th Nov 3rd- 13th Jan 15th- 19th- Apr 5th- Jul 18th- Sep 9th- Oct st- Dec 8th- 24th th th th th st th Jan 29th- 9th Mar 24th- Apr 2nd th-26th Jun th-30th Jul th Oct- 6th Nov th Jan - 4th General Election th-30th 8th-20th June Oct th-16th th-st 6th-14th July th-30th 1st-13th April Dec * Includes all other parties Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 11

12 Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference INDEPENDENTS OTHERS* *Includes all others (including Greens) Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 12

13 Satisfaction with the Government has fallen. Nearly half are unhappy with its performance Base: All Aged 18+ One in Two are unhappy HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 70 Fianna Fail Supporters 58 Munster residents 57 Dublin Residents 55 C2DEs 54 Independents/Others Supporters 66 Dissatisfied (46) Satisfied (48) HIGHER AMONG Fine Gael Supporters 76 Conn Ulster Residents 54 Farming Community* 55 ABC1s 50 Rural Residents 48 8 Don t know (7) ( ) = April Results *Caution small base Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 13

14 Satisfaction with Government Over Time Dissatisfaction has crept upwards this year Base: All Aged Results 2014 Results 2015 Results Results 2017 Results Results June 20 th 28 th 2013 Aug 3 rd -12 th 2013 Aug 17 th -27 th 2013 Sep 13 th 25 th 2013 Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th 2013 Nov 3 rd -13 th 2013 Jan 15 th -24 th th -28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th 2014 Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th -18 th 2014 Oct st 31 st 2014 Dec 8 th -18 th 2014 Jan 30th - 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - Apr 2 nd th -26 th June th-30 th July th Oct- 6 th Nov th Jan- 4 th 18 th -30 th June 8 th -20 th Oct 6 th -16 th th - st July th -14 th 18 th -30 th April 1 st -13 th Dec Dissatisfied Satisfied Don t know

15 Satisfaction with Party Leaders Trended over time Base: All Aged 18+ Enda Kenny Leo Varadkar Joan Burton Brendan Howlin Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Mary Lou McDonald Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct Jul Apr 18 Dec 18 Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct Jul Apr 18 Dec 18 Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct Jul Apr 18 Dec 18 Mar/ Apr Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct Jul Apr 18 Dec 18 Satisfied Dissatisfied Don t know (7) (9) (9) (9) (11) (11) (12) (11) (24) (13) (10) (13) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (30) (27) (26) (29) (30) (25) (35) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (18) (18) (16) (19) (16) (17) (24) (12) (18) (19) (18) () (18) (19) (16) (22) (24) (17) (25) Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn Féin? 15

16 Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar Base: All Aged 18+ HIGHER AMONG year olds 45 C2s 42 Farming Community* 43 Munster Residents 50 Fianna Fáil Supporters 57 Sinn Féin Supporters 56 Dissatisfied (34) Satisfied (56) HIGHER AMONG Fine Gael Supporters 83 Satisfied with Gov't 83 Conn/Ulster Residents ABC1s 56 Independents/Others Don t know (10) ( ) = April Results *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach? 16

17 Satisfaction with Brendan Howlin Base: All Aged 18+ HIGHER AMONG Males year olds 52 Dublin Residents 47 Munster Residents 51 Fianna Fáil Supporters 57 Sinn Féin Supporters 49 Independents/Others 47 Dissatisfied 24 (50) Satisfied (26) 41 HIGHER AMONG C1s 28 Farming Community* 38 Conn/Ulster Residents 35 Fine Gael Supporters 35 Labour Supporters Don t know (25) ( ) = April Results *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? 17

18 Satisfaction with Michéal Martin Base: All Aged 18+ HIGHER AMONG ABs 42 Dublin Residents 43 Munster Residents 44 Labour Supporters* 45 Sinn Féin Supporters 57 Independents/Others Dissatisfied (39) Satisfied (44) HIGHER AMONG Males Farming Community* 57 Conn/Ulster Residents 51 Fianna Fáil Supporters 74 Fine Gael Supporters 48 ( ) = April Results Don t know (17) *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? 18

19 Satisfaction with Mary Lou McDonald Base: All Aged 18+ HIGHER AMONG Independents/Others Supporters 44 Fine Gael Supporters 51 Munster Residents 45 Labour Supporters* 44 ABs 54 Fianna Fáil Supporters 61 Farming Community* Dissatisfied (37) Satisfied (46) 25 HIGHER AMONG year olds 41 DEs 47 Conn/Ulster Residents 42 Sinn Féin Supporters 86 ( ) = April Results Don t know (17) *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn Féin? 19

20 Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support Base: All Aged 18+ July 2017 Apr Dec Total Supporters Supporters* Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other Party Supporters Leo Varadkar (49) (58) (56) Brendan Howlin (28) (22) (26) Satisfied Michéal Martin (45) (48) (44) Mary Lou McDonald (35)# (39) (46) Leo Varadkar (28) (29) (34) Brendan Howlin (43) (48) (50) Dissatisfied Michéal Martin (36) (36) (39) Mary Lou McDonald (44)# (37) (37) * Includes all other parties # Previously Gerry Adams *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? 20 Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn Féin?

21 Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil continues to be the least toxic of the main parties with Sinn Féin being the most toxic Base: All Aged 18+ WOULD NOT CONSIDER June Oct 2017 July 2017 Apr Dec Supporters Supporters* Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other party Supporters~ Fine Gael (34) (35) (32) (32) (25) (22) (27) Labour (31) (28) (22) (24) (25) (24) (26) Fianna Fáil (24) (25) () () (18) (17) () Solidarity/People Before Profit Sinn Féin (37) (40) (38) (36) (34) (36) (34) (16) (17) (18) (22) (24) () (24) Green Party (n/a) (18) (17) (20) (24) (22) (24) Social Democrats (9) (8) (10) (14) (19) (18) () ~ Includes all other parties ()=previous results *Caution small base size Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

22 A Focus on Brexit and our Relationship with the EU

23 How we feel about the EU: Support for the EU continues, although we recognise that the EU holds the power over us Base: All Aged 18+ The EU has more control over our economic situation than our own Government The EU will respect Ireland s special position with UK in Brexit negotiations On balance, the EU has been good to Ireland since we joined in 1973 On balance, the EU has been good to Ireland over past 10 years 42 Agree strongly (37) (34) (17) (20) (38) (40) (33) (32) Agree slightly (36) (39) (34) (43) (37) (43) (39) (44) Neither (16) (16) (29) (22) (18) (11) (17) (15) Disagree slightly (9) (11) (15) (12) (6) (11) (9) (7) Disagree strongly (2) (*) (5) (3) (1) (5) (2) (1) Net agree (73) (72) 77 (51) (62) 65 (75) (84) 83 (71) (76) 76 Net disagree (11) (11) 16 (20) (16) 12 (7) (5) 5 (11) (9) ( ) = April 2017/Aug Results Q.6 I am now going to read out some statements that some people have said about the relationship between Ireland and the EU. Can you tell me how much you agree or disagree with these statements? 23

24 Who has control of our economic destiny?: We feel that the EU pulls the strings, and we are not necessarily in control of our own destiny Base: All Aged 18+ The EU has more control over our economic situation than our own Government Higher Among ABs 11 Dublin Residents 10 Labour Supporters* 18 Any Disagree (11) (11) Any Agree (73) (72) Higher Among C2s 83 Munster Residents 84 Sinn Féin Supporters 89 Neither (16) (16) Independents/Others 82 *Caution small base size ( ) = April 2017 ( ) = Aug Results Q.6 I am now going to read out some statements that some people have said about the relationship between Ireland and the EU. Can you tell me how much you agree or disagree with these statements? 24

25 Will the EU remember us in Brexit negotiations?: We feel that the EU is firmly in our corner in terms of looking after our interests Base: All Aged 18+ (875) The EU will respect Ireland s special position with the UK when Brexit negotiations take place Higher Among C2s 15 Conn/Ulster Residents 18 Sinn Féin Supporters 20 Any Disagree (20) (16) Neither (29) (18) Any Agree (51) (62) Higher Among ABs 75 Dublin Residents 73 Fine Gael Supporters 81 Fianna Fáil Supporters 73 ( ) = April 2017 ( ) = Aug Results Q.6 I am now going to read out some statements that some people have said about the relationship between Ireland and the EU. Can you tell me how much you agree or disagree with these statements? 25

26 Historically, has the EU been good to us?: The vast majority agree that joining the EU (EEC) has benefitted us Base: All Aged 18+ On balance, the EU has been good to Ireland since we joined in 1973 Any Disagree (8) (5) Neither (18) (11) Any Agree (75) (84) Higher Among ABs 90 C1s 88 Farming Community* 90 Fine Gael Supporters 94 Fianna Fáil Supporters 91 *Caution small base size ( ) = April 2017 ( ) = Aug Results Q.6 I am now going to read out some statements that some people have said about the relationship between Ireland and the EU. Can you tell me how much you agree or disagree with these statements? 26

27 How has the EU treated us since the crash?: three in four feel that on balance, our relationship has been positive Base: All Aged 18+ On balance, the EU has been good to Ireland over past 10 years Any Disagree (11) (9) 9 Neither (17) (15) Any Agree (71) (76) Higher Among C1s 84 Farming Community* 84 Fine Gael Supporters 87 Fianna Fáil Supporters 82 *Caution small base size ( ) = April 2017 ( ) = Aug Results Q.6 I am now going to read out some statements that some people have said about the relationship between Ireland and the EU. Can you tell me how much you agree or disagree with these statements? 27

28 Who will benefit more from Brexit negotiations? Concerns are growing that Brexit is a Lose-Lose situation, but whatever the outcome, it doesn t bode well for the UK Base: All Aged 18+ Apr 2017 Aug Aug The EU Neither Both Equally The UK Don t know/no opinion Q. From what you know, who do you think will benefit more from the Brexit Negotiations? 28

29 Where should the Government focus spending over the next two years? The population is over 2:1 in favour of improved public services over Tax Cuts. Base: All Aged 18+ Higher Among Higher Among DEs 71 Munster Residents 68 Conn/Ulster Residents 70 Labour Supporters* 77 Improved Public Services More tax cuts Males ABs 41 C1s 35 Leinster Residents 35 6 Don t know/ No opinion *Small base size Q.8b Which of the following do you think the Government s focus should be over the next two years? 29

30 For further details contact: Paul Moran Kantar Millward Brown 6 Ely Place, Dublin 2 T (1)