National Opinion Poll: February for Publication on 21st February 2016

Transcription

1 National Opinion Poll: February for Publication on 21st February /Paul 1. Moran

2 2. National Opinion Poll

3 Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 21st February Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. Interviewing was conducted at 100 sampling points nationwide. 1,065 Interviews were carried out between 17 th 18 th February 2016 Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

4 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 1,065 adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in the home at 100 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.0 POLL Interviewing on the poll was carried out between 17 th and 18 th February 2016 The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent

5 Some subtle shifts in opinion, but not a lot has changed. This final Sunday Independent/Millward Brown opinion poll before next week s General Election, was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Therefore it measured the pulse of the nation exactly two weeks into what has been quite frankly, a rather dull campaign. Fieldwork commenced shortly after the second televised leaders debate on Monday, where all seven leaders had the opportunity to advance their causes. On the face of it, not a lot has changed since our last national poll at the beginning of the month. However, scratch beneath the surface, and there are some subtle shifts in opinion. Opinions are becoming more focused just 13pc at this stage claim to be undecided. However, this poll sought only the views of those both registered to vote, and intending to do so with some degree of certainly (those who will definitely/probably vote next Friday). Therefore, whilst results with previous tracking polls are not directly comparable, we can still use them as a relative benchmark. First off, the overall Party support. Fine Gael remains top of the pecking order, and stands at 27pc. Fianna Fáil trails by four points at 23pc, and Labour remains firmly in the Doldrums at six percent. Sinn Féin now attracts 19pc of the vote, with Independents/other parties continuing to excel they are the second largest grouping at 25pc. From a statistical point of view, there is no real change of note. So is the electorate becalmed? Not really. Some in Fine Gael might rue not going to the country in the Autumn. However, by doing so would not have guaranteed any further success. The issue for Fine Gael is that their campaign has stuttered from the outset. The widely held view was that this was Fine Gael s election to lose. The assumed narrative of the campaign was that it would be a straightforward slugfest on the economy. 5.

6 Some subtle shifts in opinion, but not a lot has changed (Cont d) However, opposition parties have deftly sidestepped this frontal assault, and turned defence into attack in terms of focussing on society, and societal needs the Government Parties perceived soft underbelly. The public have warmed to this message (health {as always} but also homelessness have consistently been to the fore as key issues, as opposed to the obvious economic message). There are two reasons why this has been made easier for the opposition many do not see the benefits of the recovery as yet, whilst for others, the role that Government claims to have played in it has been exaggerated - external factors have been more than benign to us of late. It will be interesting to see if the threatened economic fear offensive will gain traction the impact of that message has been lukewarm so far. There are indicators in this poll that the public may not find such a single-minded strategy compelling just one in three (34pc) agree that a change in Government would put Ireland s economic stability at risk and it is only Fine Gael supporters who have any conviction on this (66pc of them agree, compared to just 39pc of Labour supporters). Similarly, and reflecting the opposition s message of fairness in society, 57pc believe a change of Government could lead to a fairer society. How the Government parties channel this message will be critical over the next few days. Labour have always been on the back foot, and on the basis of these results, will have a very long and uncomfortable day at the count centres next Saturday. From a long way out, there has been a sense that relying on things to change dramatically during the course of a campaign was optimistic at best. It would seem that the party s message is going unheeded. In addition, Labour have been caught between a rock and a hard place; losing support to the far left, but finding itself having to align with the centre right (FG) for self-preservation purposes. In essence, the Labour brand has been hugely diluted. 6.

7 Some subtle shifts in opinion, but not a lot has changed (Cont d) A particular worry for Labour is that their traditional stronghold of Dublin (often the cockpit of the election), is faring no better (7pc support). This election may well be a case of damage limitation at best. It also seems that some senior figures within the Labour Party have gone to ground. Joan Burton seems to be ploughing a lonely furrow. Fianna Fáil have been, to a certain extent, the surprise package so far in this campaign. Michéal Martin has performed competently over the past couple of weeks, as have his senior team. So far at least, they have been relatively comfortable in counteracting accusations laid against them. This is reflected in the public s appraisal of his role as party leader satisfaction with his performance is at 40pc far above all others, and significantly ahead of where he was at the outset of the campaign. Sinn Féin have slipped off the pace slightly. The party began this campaign brightly (exposing the anomaly of the Government s fiscal space). There is a sense however, that Gerry Adams grasp of the minutiae of detail is brittle at best. In addition, there is also a question mark over the party s ability to get its voters out on the day (its support being skewed towards cohorts who traditionally tend not to vote younger and from lower socio economic cohorts). If this Achilles Heel can be rectified, it could be a very good day for Sinn Fein next Saturday. Either way, it is certain that SF will significantly increase its representation in the 32 nd Dáil. Independents/other parties continue to perform strongly. In particular, there have been notable gains for AAA/PbP (5pc), and the Social Democrats (4pc). Renua and the Greens register 2pc each. These smaller parties took full advantage of their participation on the Leaders debate on Monday, making points that resonated with the audience. We need to treat these National figures for smaller parties with caution for some parties, there may be a desire to vote for them, but no candidates will be available within that voter s particular constituency. For others, a nationwide poll may not reflect fully their strength within specific areas, or constituency strongholds, and thus the seats they may gain. 7.

8 Some subtle shifts in opinion, but not a lot has changed (Cont d) Taking a step back, it is clear that with the Government parties at a combined support level of just 33pc, the next five days will be critical. The political landscape has not been this fractured in generations. Whilst forecasting the rank order of how parties will perform is relatively straightforward, how this will translate into forming a Government is anybody s guess. 8.

9 9. The Results

10 Party Support: First preference (Incl./Excl. Undecideds) Party Support incl. don t knows Fine Gael 23 Fine Gael Party Support Excl. don t knows (n=931) 27 Fianna Fáil 20 Fianna Fáil 23 Sinn Féin 17 Sinn Féin 19 Independent Candidate 11 Independent Candidate 13 Labour Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit Social Democrats Renua Ireland Green Party The Socialist Party Other Party Don t Know Labour Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit Social Democrats Green Party Renua Ireland The Socialist Party Other Party

11 Party Support X Demographics Base: All giving a first preference GENDER AGE Male Female Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Independent Candidate Labour Anti Austerity Alliance- People Before Profit Social Democrats Green Party Renua Ireland The Socialist Party *

12 Party Support X Demographics Base: All giving a first preference AB C1 C2 SOCIAL CLASS DE F ABC1 C2DE DUBLIN REGION REST OF LEINSTER MUNSTER CONN/ ULSTER Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Independent Candidate Labour Anti Austerity Alliance- People Before Profit Social Democrats Green Party Renua Ireland The Socialist Party * 1 * 1 12.

13 Party Support: First Preference (Incl./Excl. Undecideds) Party Support Incl. Don t knows Fine Gael (20) Party Support Excl. Don t knows Fine Gael (27) Don t know (26) 27 Fianna Fáil (17) 20 Sinn Féin (16) 17 5 Labour (4) 22 Independents/ Others* (17) Fianna Fáil (22) 23 Sinn Féin (21) Labour (6) Independents/ Others* (23) 13. ()=National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) *Includes all other parties

14 Party Support X Demographics Base: All giving a first preference GENDER AGE Male Female Fine Gael Independents/Others* Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour *Includes all other parties 14.

15 Party Support X Demographics Base: All giving a first preference AB C1 C2 SOCIAL CLASS DE F ABC1 C2DE DUBLIN REGION REST OF LEINSTER MUNSTER CONN/ ULSTER Fine Gael Independents/Others* Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour *Includes all other parties 15.

16 Satisfaction with the Government: Satisfaction is driven by those who are older or more affluent, farmers and FG supporters Three in Ten adults are happy with the current performance HIGHER AMONG Age DEs 75 Munster Residents 73 of FF 80 of SF 93 of Independents/Others 81 Dissatisfied (62) Satisfied 30 (29) 66 5 Don t know (9) HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 42 Farming Community 49 Conn/Ulster Residents 39 of FG 76 of Labour 44 ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

17 Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny HIGHER AMONG Age C2DEs 74 Munster Residents 75 of FF 82 of SF 94 of Independents/Others 82 Dissatisfied (62) Satisfied (27) Don t know (11) HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 36 Farming Community 45 Conn/Ulster Residents 42 of FG 72 of Labour 41 ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

18 Satisfaction with Joan Burton HIGHER AMONG Age Dissatisfied (62) 69 HIGHER AMONG Age C2DEs 76 Farming Community 37 Munster Residents 75 Conn/Ulster Residents 34 of FF 79 of SF Satisfied (22) of FG 54 of Labour 64 of Independents/Others 80 6 Don t know (16) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

19 Satisfaction with Michéal Martin HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Age DEs 53 of FG 51 of SF 69 of Independents/Others 57 Dissatisfied (48) Satisfied (27) Age Age ABs 45 Farming Community 49 of FF Don t know (25) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 19. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

20 Satisfaction with Gerry Adams HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 74 Farming Community 80 Conn/Ulster Residents 66 Dissatisfied (55) Satisfied (27) Age C2DEs 37 Leinster Residents 32 of SF 83 of FF 72 of FG 82 of Labour 64 of Independents/Others Don t know (18) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 20. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

21 Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton HIGHER AMONG Age HIGHER AMONG Males 42 Age Farming Community 46 of SF 41 Dissatisfied (42) Satisfied (16) ABs 38 Dublin Residents 34 of FF 34 of FG 37 of Labour 37 of Independents/Others Don t know (43) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 21. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

22 Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support SATISFIED Enda Kenny (27) Joan Burton (22) Michéal Martin (27) Gerry Adams (27) Lucinda Creighton (16) Total Independents/Others* DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny (62) Joan Burton (62) Michéal Martin (48) Gerry Adams (51) Lucinda Creighton (42) Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland? *Includes all other parties ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)

23 Which Parties are most toxic to whom? SF are the least transfer friendly, with FF being less toxic among the main parties WOULD NOT CONSIDER Total Independents/Others* Fine Gael (34) Labour (31) Fianna Fáil (24) Sinn Féin (37) Renua Ireland (12) AAA-People Before Profit (16) Socialist Party (19) Green Party (19) Social Democrats (11) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) *Includes all other parties 23. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

24 How certain are voters in their convictions? Labour and Independents are less surefooted in their voting intentions Base: All giving a first preference (931) Total (931) Fine Gael (248) Fianna Fáil (215) Sinn Fein (174) Labour (56) Independents/ Others* (238) 28 Absolutely certain Pretty certain Some reservations Not at all certain Don t know * * * Net Score (Any confident minus Any doubters) 68 (61) 66 (59) 76 (68) 78 (75) 52 (22) 59 (52) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) *Includes all other parties 24. Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming General Election?

25 Most Important Issue when casting vote (First Mention): Health by far remains the #1 priority 1 st Mention Health Services/Hospitals (37) Management of the economy (11) Crime/Law and Order in General (10) Unemployment/jobs (13) The homeless situation/lack of Local Authority Housing (9) Water Charges (5) Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/cost of Rent (7) Crime/Law and Order relating to Gangland Crime (n/a) Childcare (3) Abortion (1) Issues within my own constituency (1) Something else (1) Don't know (2) * 35 ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 25. Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

26 Most Important Issues: All Mentions Homelessness, economic issues and crime are also pertinent 1 st Mention 2 nd Mention 3 rd Mention Any Mention Health Services/Hospitals (72) The homeless situation/lack of Local Authority Housing (40) Unemployment/jobs (44) Management of the economy (32) Crime/Law and Order in General (31) Water Charges (26) Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/cost of Rent (23) Crime/Law and Order relating to Gangland Crime (n/a) Childcare (11) Abortion (5) Issues within my own constituency (3) Something Else (4) Don't know * * * 1 (4) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) 26. Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

27 Preferred options in the event of a deadlocked Dáil one in three would like a rerun, but the Grand Coalition gains some traction HIGHER AMONG Males 28 Age Farming Community 34 Munster Residents 27 of FF 38 of FG 38 A Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil Coalition A Fine Gael Minority A new election Don t Know HIGHER AMONG Age C2s 40 Dublin Residents 38 of Labours 46 of SF 48 Some other combination 27. Q. In the event of the next Dáil being deadlocked, whereby none of the parties can form a Government with their preferred options, which of the following would be your preferred choice?

28 Half believe that economic stability is not at risk by a change of Government, and a majority feel it could lead to a fairer society Any Agree Any Disagree It Depends Don't Know (33) A change of Government would put Ireland s economic stability at risk (8) (5) 49 (42) A change of Government would help create a fairer society Any Agree Any Disagree It Depends Don't Know (50) (6) (8) (19) AGREEMENT HIGHER AMONG ABC1s 39 Dublin Residents 38 Conn/Ulster Residents 40 of FG 66 of Labour 39 ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) DISAGREEMENT HIGHER AMONG 28. Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements Age C2DEs 56 Leinster Residents 58 of FF 63 of SF 66 of Independents/Others 60 AGREEMENT HIGHER AMONG Age C2DEs 63 Leinster Residents 64 of FF 70 of SF 85 of Independents/Others 64 DISAGREEMENT HIGHER AMONG Age ABC1s 29 Conn/Ulster Residents 29 of FG 50 of Labour 30

29 It is only FG supporters who are likely to follow the Government message of Stability vs Chaos. Labour are more nuanced A change of Government would put Ireland s economic stability at risk Total Fine Gael (248) Fianna Fáil (215) Sinn Fein (174) Labour (56) Independents Others* (238) Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree It depends Don t know *Includes all other parties 29. Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements

30 Sinn Féin and FF supporters are most strident in their view that a change of Government will lead to a fairer society A change of Government would help create a fairer society Total Fine Gael (248) Fianna Fáil (215) Sinn Fein (174) Labour (56) Independents Others* (238) Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree It depends Don t know * *Includes all other parties 30. Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements

31 Nearly one in three feel that Fine Gael is the party they can trust most to manage the economy Trust Most Fine Gael (248) Fianna Fáil (215) Trust Most x Party Support Sinn Fein (174) Labour (56) Independents Others* (238) Fine Gael (24) Fianna Fáil (17) Sinn Fein (13) Labour (3) Somebody else (7) None of them (16) Don t know (19) * * *Includes all other parties 31. Q. Which one of the following parties do you trust most to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

32 Sinn Féin is still doubted by many to manage the public finances Trust Least Fine Gael (248) Fianna Fáil (215) Trust Least x Party Support Sinn Fein (174) Labour (56) Independents Others* (238) Fine Gael (17) 18 * Fianna Fáil (10) Sinn Fein (31) Labour (11) Somebody else (2) None of them (8) Don t know (21) *Includes all other parties 32. Q. Which one of the following parties do you trust least to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

33 Which Party would be considered most effective in tackling Gangland Crime? Very little difference between the three main parties Most Effective Fine Gael (248) Fianna Fáil (215) Most Effective x Party Support Sinn Fein (174) Labour (56) Independents Others* (238) Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Fein Labour Somebody else None of them Don t know *Includes all other parties 33. Q. Which one of the following parties do you think will be MOST effective in tackling Gangland Crime?

34 Which Party would be considered least effective in tackling Gangland Crime? One in three have doubts about Sinn Féin Least Effective Fine Gael (248) Fianna Fáil (215) Least Effective x Party Support Sinn Fein (174) Labour (56) Independents Others* (238) Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Fein Labour Somebody else None of them Don t know *Includes all other parties 34. Q. Which one of the following parties do you think will be LEAST effective in tackling Gangland Crime?

35 There is little appetite to abolish the Special Criminal Court ARE YOU IN FAVOUR OR AGAINST THE ABOLITION OF THE SPECIAL CRIMINAL COURT? HIGHER AMONG Age ABs 78 Farming Community 76 Against the abolition In favour of the abolition HIGHER AMONG Age C2DEs 16 of SF 29 Munster Residents 75 of FF Don t Know of FG 80 of Labour 74 6 It Depends 35. Q. Are you in favour or against the abolition of the Special Criminal Court??

36 Fine Gael are perceived to have the most credible manifesto, but are only marginally ahead of Fianna Fáil Anti Austerity Alliance-People before Profit Most Credible Fine Gael (248) Fianna Fáil (215) Most Credible x Party Support Sinn Fein (174) Labour (56) Independents Others* (238) Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Fein 14 * Labour 3 * Renua Ireland The Socialist Party Social Democrats Green Party *Includes all other parties 36. Q. From what you have heard so far during the campaign, which of the following political parties have the MOST credible manifesto?

37 Sinn Féin s manifesto is considered least credible by three in ten, with some doubts (16pc) over FG s policies Least Credible Fine Gael (248) Fianna Fáil (215) Least Credible x Party Support Sinn Fein (174) Labour (56) Independents Others* (238) Fine Gael 16 * Fianna Fáil Sinn Fein Labour Renua Ireland Anti Austerity Alliance-People before Profit The Socialist Party Social Democrats 1 2 * 1 2 * Green Party *Includes all other parties 37. Q. Finally, from what you have heard so far during the campaign, which of the following political parties have the LEAST credible manifesto?

38 For more information, please contact: Paul Moran Millbank House Arkle Road Sandyford Dublin 18 t (1) /Paul Moran