An Edge to Bush on Issues and Qualities In a Race That's Still Closely Matched

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS 7/23/00 EMBARGO: 6:30 P.M. BROADCAST, 9 P.M. PRINT/WEB, Monday, July 24, 2000 An Edge to Bush on Issues and Qualities In a Race That's Still Closely Matched On the cusp of their nominating conventions George W. Bush and Al Gore stand closely matched in public preferences, with an edge to Bush on the strength of his personality and some bread-and-butter Republican issues. Bush enters this crucial phase of the campaign with double-digit leads in public trust to handle crime, the death penalty, the economy, taxes and the federal budget. Gore leads by double digits only on two lower-priority concerns, the environment and women's issues. On personal qualities, similarly, Bush holds double-digit leads in five areas personality, leadership, trustworthiness, speaking his mind and bringing change to Washington. Gore leads by double digits on just one quality, knowledge of world affairs. Most fundamental is a perception that Gore is a big-government Democrat, a view that puts him out of step with the majority's preference. Nearly six in 10 think Gore favors "larger government with many services" over "smaller government with fewer services." Only a third think that's true of Bush. Smaller government, Larger government, fewer services many services What do you favor? 59% 34 What does Bush favor? What does Gore favor? IN POSITION While Bush looks better positioned on issues and qualities, the contest is still close. In a two-way match-up Bush has 48 percent support to Gore's 45 percent among registered voters, about the same as last month. Adding Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader to the mix makes no significant difference; indeed they balance each other's effect. Nader takes eight points from Gore and four from Bush, while Buchanan takes eight from Bush and four from Gore. Bush Gore Bush Gore Nader Buchanan Reg. voters 48% Among likely voters Bush's support inches up over half; it's percent in the two-way race, and percent in the four-way.

2 Nader and Buchanan are both doing a couple of points better than they were last month, possibly a result of the thousand cuts Bush and Gore have been inflicting on each other with their near-daily exchange of criticisms. Both major-party candidates have seen single-digit dips in several of their personal ratings. Still, support for Nader and Buchanan alike looks downright squirrelly: Half their backers say there's a "good chance" they'll change their minds by Election Day. Barely over 10 percent of Bush and Gore supporters say that. "Good chance" you'll change your mind Bush supporters 13% Gore supporters 11 Nader supporters 48 Buchanan supporters 51 Another measure makes Bush's support look a bit hardier than Gore's: Sixty-five percent of Bush's supporters say they're strongly behind him, compared to 56 percent of Gore's. While it's less critical now, strength of support can be important in voter turnout. VP The choice of a vice president usually doesn't make much (if any) difference in vote choices; voters instead focus their decision on the top of the ticket. Look at 1988; Michael Dukakis won plaudits for his choice of Lloyd Bentsen, while George Bush took criticism for picking Dan Quayle but it didn't change the bottom line. Neither did Walter Mondale's selection of Geraldine Ferraro in 1984: he still lost women. DIFFERENCES Attention to the race remains somewhat muted, not surprising in the post-primary, pre-convention lull that's now drawing to a close. Half of Americans say they're following the contest "very" or "somewhat" closely. This peaked at 70 percent during the height of the primaries, suggesting it'll rise again as the race heats up. Whatever their current attention, most Americans do see significant choices. Despite the popular notion of a deeply alienated and broadly dissatisfied electorate, 64 percent say they are satisfied with the choice of candidates. (Though few are "very" satisfied.) Seventy-one percent also say there's a "real difference" between Bush and Gore on the issues; 67 percent say there's a real difference in terms of their personal qualities. And 77 percent also say it does matter who's elected. (That's down from 89 percent in a 1988 poll, which could just mean that Bush and Gore are both broadly acceptable.) DEATH PENALTY Recent give and take on the issues seems to have favored Bush. For example, he's received criticism for presiding over 135 executions as governor of Texas, including, most recently, that of Gary Graham. But since the issue arose support for Bush's handling of the death penalty has jumped by 18 points, and he's gained ground on Gore in trust to handle it. Bush's handling of the

3 death penalty in Texas Approve Disapprove No opin. 7/ / BUDGET Gore's criticism of Bush's fiscal management hasn't cut his way, either. In April the two were ranked about evenly in trust to handle the federal budget; today Bush leads on this issue by 11 points. And there's been a steady drop in the number of people who rate it a top concern 76 percent last fall, 66 percent in April, 58 percent now. The two are rated evenly in trust to handle education and Social Security, while other issues show significant differentiation between these candidates. Of 17 issues tested in this poll, Bush has a clear lead in nine; Gore in three. Here's the rundown: The Issues: "Very Trust to Handle it: Important" Today 4/2/00 Education 75% Tie Gore +9 Social Security 73 Gore +1 Tie Health care 73 Gore +9 NA Crime 72 Bush +17 Bush +15 Economy 71 Bush +10 Bush +6 Moral standards 70 Bush +9 Bush +5 Taxes 64 Bush +13 Bush +16 Environment 60 Gore +24 Gore +24 Budget surplus 60 Bush +8 NA Federal budget 58 Bush +11 Gore +3 Gun control 58 Bush +7 Bush +4 Internet privacy 58 Bush +1 NA Foreign affairs 50 Bush +5 Gore +1 Abortion 48 Gore +1 Gore +7 Supreme Court 44 Bush +9 NA Women's issues 42 Gore +23 Gore +23 Death penalty 40 Bush +15 Bush +9 QUALITIES While both candidates have taken some losses in their ratings of personal qualities, Bush has improved in two. He's scored a seven-point gain in the number of Americans who think he "says what he thinks, even if it's not politically popular," and this is now his biggest advantage over Gore in terms of personal qualities. Bush also has gained seven points in having "new ideas." Here's that rundown: Candidate qualities: Bush Gore He says what he thinks 60% 41% Bush +19 He has an appealing personality Bush +15 He knows world affairs Gore +14 He's a strong leader Bush +14 He'd bring change to Washington Bush +14

4 He's honest and trustworthy Bush +12 He has new ideas Bush +7 He has the right experience Gore +6 He understands your problems Gore +5 He can keep the economy strong Gore +3 He'll say anything to get elected Gore +2 FAVES Overall, majorities of Americans have favorable views of Gore (54 percent favorable) and Bush (an impressive 62 percent) alike. Bill Clinton has just a 44 percent favorability rating. Nader and Buchanan don t shine, but neither is as well known. Favorable Unfavorable No opin. Bush 62% 29 9 Gore Clinton Buchanan Nader LIABILITIES Gore's efforts to paint Bush as a "risky" choice haven't done much: As many people think of Gore as risky (40 percent) as Bush (38 percent.) And 36 percent of Americans now think of Gore as "too liberal," up six points since March. Fewer, 28 percent, call Bush "too conservative," and that hasn't changed. But Bush has some vulnerabilities of his own. Class distinctions are one: Thirty-nine percent think he favors the wealthy, up eight points from last year; just 19 percent say that about Gore. Still, Bush doesn t have anything like his father's trouble here. At the end of his term 61 percent thought President Bush had cared most about serving the wealthy. Cares mainly about serving the wealthy Gore 19% Bush 39 President Bush, 1/93 61 TAX CUT - Also, Americans by percent do not believe that Bush could successfully keep the federal budget balanced and cut income taxes at the same time (Bob Dole encountered the same kind of skepticism). And, as in the past, it's just not a top demand. Asked their preferred use of the surplus, fewer than two in 10 pick a tax cut. SPLITS One reason the race remains close is the split decision on the nation's direction: About half say it should continue in the same direction in which Clinton has been leading; and about half say the next president should take a new direction. Similarly, Americans divide right down the middle, percent, on which party they trust more to handle the nation's main problems in the next few years. And that's reflected

5 in preferences for congressional seats: Among registered voters, 46 percent favor the Democrat running in their district, 45 percent the Republican. GENDER GAP Bush has strengthened his support among men while Gore is doing better among women; these shifts push the gender gap to 22 points, the highest so far in the campaign and (if it holds) larger than in previous elections. Gore now leads Bush among women by seven points, percent (among registered voters); the two had run about even among women in May and June. At the same time Bush now leads percent among men. Independents, the key swing voter group, are split between Bush and Gore, percent. Bush has a percent edge among white Catholics, another swing group, but Gore has a similar percent advantage among moderates. Bush is doing better than usual for a Republican among Hispanics, who were oversampled for this poll; Gore has a Democrat's customarily overwhelming support from blacks. There'll be more on the vote by race in a subsequent analysis. Bush Gore Men 54% 39 Women White Black Hispanic Independent Moderate Catholic METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 20-23, 2000, among a random national sample of 1,228 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: Here are the full results (*= less than 0.5 percent): The latest ABC News and Washington Post poll is based random telephone interviews between July 20-23, The national survey was completed with 1,228 adults; the margin of error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. *= less than 0.5 percent

6 1. How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 7/23/ * 6/11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ * 2/6/ /16/ * 12/15/ * 10/31/ * 2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2000 presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don t think Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin. 7/23/ * 6/11/ * 5/10/ /2/ * 3/11/ * 2/27/ * 2/6/ * 1/16/ * 12/15/ /31/ * 3. If the election for president in November 2000 were being held today, and the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 7/23/ * 1 2 6/11/ * 1 2 5/10/ * 1 3 4/2/ * 2 2 3/11/ /27/ /6/ * 2 1 1/16/ /15/ * /31/ * 1 2 Net Leaned Vote, General Population: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 7/23/ * 2 2 6/11/ * 2 2 5/10/ * 2 3 4/2/ * 2 2 3/11/ /27/ /6/ * 2 1 1/16/ * /15/ * 3 1

7 10/31/ * 2 2 9/2/ * 3 2 8/22/ /6/ /14/ * 2 2 Unleaned, General Population: Neither Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 10/25/ /21/ /19/ /23/ Do you support (Gore/Bush) strongly, or not strongly? Gore Bush Strngly Not No opin. Strngly Not No opin. 7/23/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/99* * /2/ /14/ * *10/99 and previous: "strongly or only somewhat" 5. How about if the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), (George W. Bush, the Republican), (Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate) and (Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 7/23/ * 1 1 6/11/ * 1 2 5/10/ Net Leaned Vote, General Population: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 7/23/ * 1 2 6/11/ * 2 2 5/10/ * Will you definitely vote for (Gore/Bush/Nader/Buchanan) in November, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? Is there a good chance you ll change your mind or would you say it s pretty unlikely? 7/23/ Change mind Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion Gore Bush Nader Buchanan (Asked of half sample) How important will (READ ITEM) be to you in

8 deciding how to vote in the 2000 presidential election in November - very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all? How about? 7/23/00 Very Somewhat Not too Not at all op. A. Holding taxes down B. Protecting the Social Security system C. Improving education and the schools * D. Improving the health care system E. Handling the national economy F. Handling the issue of gun control G. Handling foreign affairs H. Encouraging high moral standards & values I. Handling the death penalty issue J. Protecting people s privacy on the Internet K. Handling the federal budget surplus L. Managing the federal budget M. Handling crime N. Protecting the environment * O. Handling the abortion issue P. Addressing women s issues Q. Appointing justices to the Supreme Court Trend where available: A. Holding taxes down 7/23/ /2/ * 10/31/ * 3/14/ Compare to: Cutting taxes 9/2/ * B. Protecting the Social Security System 7/23/ /2/ * 10/31/ * 9/2/ * 3/14/ *

9 C. Improving education and the schools 7/23/ * 4/2/ * 10/31/ * 9/2/ /14/ D. Improving the health care system 7/23/ Compare to: Protecting patients rights in the health care system 5/10/ /2/ /31/ /2/ * 3/14/ E. Handling the national economy 7/23/ /2/ * 10/31/ /2/ /14/ F. Handling the issue of gun control 7/23/ /10/ /2/ * 10/31/ /2/ G. Handling foreign affairs 7/23/ /2/ /31/ * 9/2/ /14/ H. Encouraging high moral standards & values 7/23/ /2/ /31/ /2/ /14/

10 I. Handling the death penalty issue 7/23/ /2/ L. Managing the federal budget 7/23/ /2/ /31/ * 9/2/ /14/ * 2 M. Handling crime 7/23/ /2/ /31/ /2/ * 3/14/ N. Protecting the environment 7/23/ * 4/2/ /31/ * 9/2/ * 3/14/ O. Handling the abortion issue 7/23/ /2/ /31/ P. Addressing women s issues 7/23/ /2/ Which presidential candidate, (Gore) or (Bush), do you trust to do a better job on each of those issues? First is (INSERT ITEM) 7/23/00 A. Holding taxes down B. Protecting the Social Security system C. Improving education and the schools D. Improving the health care system

11 E. Handling the national economy F. Handling the issue of gun control G. Handling foreign affairs H. Encouraging high moral standards & values I. Handling the death penalty issue J. Protecting people s privacy on the Internet K. Handling the federal budget surplus L. Managing the federal budget M. Handling crime N. Protecting the environment O. Handling the abortion issue P. Addressing women s issues Q. Appointing justices to the Supreme Court Trend: A. Holding taxes down 7/23/ /2/ /11/ /31/ B. Protecting the Social Security system 7/23/ /11/ /10/ /2/ /11/ /31/ C. Improving education and the schools 7/23/ /2/ /11/ /31/ D. Improving the health care system 7/23/ Compare to: Protecting patients' rights in the health care system 4/2/ /11/ /31/ E. Handling the national economy

12 7/23/ /11/ /2/ /11/ /31/ F. Handling the issue of gun control 7/23/ /10/ /2/ /11/ /31/ G. Handling foreign affairs 7/23/ /2/ /11/ /31/ H. Encouraging high moral standards & values 7/23/ /2/ I. Handling the death penalty issue 7/23/ /2/ L. Managing the federal budget 7/23/ /2/ M. Handling crime 7/23/ /2/ /31/ N. Protecting the environment 7/23/ /2/ /11/ /31/ O. Handling the abortion issue 7/23/ /2/ /11/ /31/

13 P. Addressing women s issues 7/23/ /2/ Regardless of how you might vote, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (Gore/Bush/Nader/Buchanan/Clinton), or perhaps you don t know enough to say. Do you feel that way strongly or only somewhat? 7/23/ Favorable Unfavorable No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat op. Al Gore George W. Bush Ralph Nader Pat Buchanan Bill Clinton Call for trend. 11. How satisfied are you with the choice of candidates for president available to you in the upcoming election--very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? Satisfied Dissatisfied----- No NET Very Somewhat NET Somewhat Very Opinion 7/23/ /29/96 Reg Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (Gore/Bush), or not? 7/23/ Gore Bush No No Yes No op. Yes No op. A. He understands the problems of people like you B. He is a strong leader C. He would bring needed change to Washington D. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president E. He can do a good job keeping the economy strong F. He will say or do anything to get elected G. He has new ideas H. He says what he really thinks, even if it s not politically popular I. He s honest and trustworthy J. He has an appealing personality K. He has the right kind of experience to be president Trend (where available): A. He understands the problems of people like you

14 ------Gore Bush Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 7/23/ /11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /13/ NA NA NA 3/14/ B. He is a strong leader Gore Bush Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 7/23/ /11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /13/ NA NA NA 3/14/ C. He would bring needed change to Washington Gore Bush Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 7/23/ /2/ /11/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ D. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president Gore Bush Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 7/23/ /2/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /14/99 NA NA NA E. He can do a good job keeping the economy strong Gore Bush Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 7/23/ /2/ /27/ /2/

15 3/14/ G. He has new ideas Gore Bush Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 7/23/ /2/ /27/ /2/ /14/ H. He says what he really thinks, even if it s not politically popular Gore Bush Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 7/23/ /2/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ I. He s honest and trustworthy Gore Bush Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 7/23/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /14/ K. He has the right kind of experience to be president Gore Bush Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 7/23/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ Do you think there s a real difference between (Bush) and (Gore) on the issues you care about, or not? Yes No No opinion 7/23/ /11/ Do you think there s a real difference between (Bush) and (Gore) in terms of their personal qualities, or not? Yes No No opinion 7/23/ /11/ Overall, would you say (Gore/Bush) cares more about serving poor and lower income people, middle income people, upper income people, or would you say he cares equally about serving all people? Gore: Poor Middle Upper All No opinion 7/23/

16 9/2/ Bush: Poor Middle Upper All No opinion 7/23/ /2/ Compare to: Clinton: 8/5/ /17/ /29/ /26/ /17/ /23/92 RV Dole: 8/5/ President Bush: 1/17/93* /23/92 RV /9/ /2/ /15/ /21/ /4/90 LV /4/ * *"has cared" 16. Do you think of (Gore/Bush) as a very safe choice for president, somewhat safe, somewhat risky, or very risky? Safe Risky No NET Very Somewhat NET Very Somewhat opin. Gore: 7/23/ /27/ /2/ Bush: 7/23/ /27/ /2/ Do you think (Gore s/bush s) views on most issues are too liberal for you, too conservative for you, or just about right? Too Too About No liberal conservative right opinion Gore: 7/23/ /11/ /27/ /24/ /6/ /2/ /14/ Bush: 7/23/ /11/ /27/ /24/

17 2/6/ /2/ /14/ Do you think Bush would be able to keep the federal budget balanced and cut income taxes at the same time, or not? Yes No No opinion 7/23/ /27/ /15/ Overall, which party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years? Both equally Neither No Dems Reps (vol.) (vol.) opin. 7/23/ /2/ /6/ /14/ Call for full trend. 20. (Half sample) Would you say you favor smaller government with fewer services, or larger government with many services? Smaller govt. Larger govt. No fewer services many services opinion 7/23/ /2/ /16/ /5/ Rep Dels Dem Dels /8/ Rep Dels Dem Dels Rep Dels Dem Dels Dem Dels (Half sample) Do you think (Gore/Bush) favors smaller government with fewer services, or larger government with many services? 7/23/00 Smaller govt. Larger govt. No fewer services many services opinion Gore Bush Regardless of whom you support for president, given what you know, would you say you approve or disapprove of the way Bush has handled the death penalty during his time as governor of Texas? Approve Disapprove No opinion 7/23/ /18/

18 25. (Half sample) Which of these do you think should be the top priority for any surplus money in the federal budget - cut federal income taxes, put it toward reducing the national debt, strengthen the Social Security system, or increase spending on other domestic programs? Cut taxes Reduce debt Soc. Sec. Dom. Progs. No opin. 7/23/ /2/ /25/ /14/ /31/ /19/ (Half sample) Which of these do you think should be the top priority for any surplus money in the federal budget - cut federal income taxes, put it toward reducing the national debt, strengthen the Social Security system, or increase spending on other domestic programs such as education or health care? Cut taxes Reduce debt Soc. Sec. Dom. Progs. No opin. 7/23/ /2/ Thinking about the U.S. House of Representatives election in November, 2000 in the congressional district where you live, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote: (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate)? Registered voters: Net leaned vote: Neither Wouldn't Democrat Republican (vol.) vote (vol.) No opin. 7/23/ /27/ /31/ /2/ * 5 Call for full trend. 28. Which of these two statements comes closest to your own views: A) After eight years of Bill Clinton, we need to elect a president who can set the nation in a new direction. B) We need to keep the country moving in the direction Bill Clinton has been taking us. New Same Somewhere in Neither No direction direction between (vol.) (vol.) opin. 7/23/ /27/ * 1 1/26/ /31/ /2/ /14/ Compare to: President Bush: 8/9/ * * 2 6/7/ /11/ /15/ /21/ Reagan: 9/19/88 RV /14/

19 5/25/ /23/ /13/ Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: I m just plain tired of Bill Clinton. Do you feel that way strongly or only somewhat? Agree Disagree No NET Strngly Smwht. NET Strngly Smwht. op. 7/23/ /27/ /2/ One last question on the election do you think it matters who s elected president, or not? Yes No No opinion 7/23/ /8/88* *APMG poll. 7/23 added "or not"