N.H. Voters Boost Insurgents But Does it Translate Nationally?

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: CAMPAIGN 2000, N.H. and National EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 16, 1999 N.H. Voters Boost Insurgents But Does it Translate Nationally? Anti-establishment credentials have vaulted Bill Bradley and John McCain to very competitive positions in the New Hampshire presidential primaries but the Granite State's fondness for insurgents hasn't translated nationally for either candidate. Bradley has 48 percent support to Al Gore's 45 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, but Gore leads nationally by 64 to 31 percent, two new polls by ABC News and The Washington Post have found. On the Republican side, McCain has 40 percent support to George W. Bush's 39 percent in New Hampshire. But Bush leads McCain nationally by 72 percent to 13 percent among Republicans and independents who lean toward the Republican Party. Vote Preference Democrats Republicans Bradley Gore McCain Bush New Hampshire 48% 45 40% 39 Nationally Some strategists speculate that strong showings in New Hampshire can boost McCain and Bradley in the weeks that follow. It's possible but not a sure bet: Six in 10 of Gore's primary backers nationally support him "strongly," as do seven in 10 of Bush's supporters. Both, especially Gore, have greater strength of support nationally than their opponents. GENERAL - If McCain and Bradley did manage to win their parties' nominations, it could make for an exciting general election race: Head to head nationally, they run even. A Gore/McCain race also is close, while Bush leads Gore by 16 points and Bradley by 20. National Trial Heats General Election Bush vs. Gore Bush vs. Bradley Gore vs. McCain Bradley vs. McCain These national trial heats are little changed, other than a better showing by McCain versus Gore. But there is movement beneath the surface for the national frontrunners, with Bush's leadership ratings weakening and Gore's improving; yet with Gore losing

2 ground in other personal qualities such as honesty and trustworthiness. The rough and tumble of campaigning may be dulling some of both candidates' luster. INDIES There's a structural difference in New Hampshire that's complicating life for Bush and Gore: Its primaries attract many more independent voters than usual for a state primary, and independents are Bradley's and especially McCain's biggest backers. McCain trails Bush by 12 points among self-identified Republicans, but leads him by 20 points among independents who plan to vote in the GOP primary. That's important because a third of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire say they're independents, same as it was in By contrast, in the seven-state 1996 Super Tuesday primaries three weeks later, just 19 percent of GOP voters were independents. New Hampshire independents also are important to Bradley, but less so. Among N.H. Likely Voters McCain Bush Bradley Gore Republicans 32% 44 Democrats Independents Independents LA DIFFERENCE There are other important differences in New Hampshire. For one thing, its voters are paying much closer attention to the election campaign, and more feel they know the candidates well. That's a more hopeful sign for Bradley and McCain, suggesting they could do better elsewhere as voters tune in. Following the campaign Feel well-informed "very closely" about the candidates New Hampshire 33% 68% Nationally But it also seems that the two insurgents have tapped into a culture of anti-establishment politics an aversion to pandering and an admiration for plain speaking, even iconoclasm at least some of which may be particular to New Hampshire (view its votes for Pat Buchanan in 1996 and Paul Tsongas in '92.) For example, 56 percent of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire think McCain is "not a typical politician," compared to just 40 percent for Bush. While 57 percent think Bush would "bring needed change to Washington," that jumps to 77 percent for McCain. Most tellingly, while 52 percent think Bush "says what he really thinks, even if it's not politically popular," a whopping 85 percent say that's true of McCain. McCain also has capitalized in New Hampshire on Bush's perceived weakness in world affairs, and on Bush's comparatively late start there; considerably more Republican voters think he takes the state seriously, and understands their personal concerns.

3 Among Rep. Voters in New Hampshire Bush McCain Gap He says what he thinks 52% He knows world affairs He'd bring change to Washington Takes N.H. concerns seriously He's not a typical politician He understands your problems Knows where he wants to lead He can be trusted in a crisis He's honest and trustworthy He's very intelligent He's a strong leader He has the right experience He has the right temperament Nationally, though, these issues aren't playing out for McCain nearly as well. One reason, which exposure can address, is that he's much less well-known, so many more people have no opinion of him. But Bush has much stronger ratings nationally than in New Hampshire on several qualities, with the notable exception of being a "typical politician." Bush Ratings N.H. Rep. voters National leaned Reps. He says what he thinks 52% 71 He knows world affairs He'd bring change to Washington He understands your problems He's not a typical politician DEMOCRATIC DANCE Many of the same elements are at play in the Gore-Bradley race. Seventy-six percent of likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire believe that Bradley says what he thinks, even if it's unpopular; only 45 percent say that of Gore. Fifty-four percent say Bradley is not a typical politician; that falls to 34 percent for Gore. And after his two terms as vice president, only 40 percent in New Hampshire say Gore would "bring needed change to Washington." Sixty-eight percent say Bradley would do so. At the same time, there are weaknesses for Bradley in New Hampshire, particularly in having "the right experience" and knowledge of world affairs. Among Dem. Voters in New Hampshire Gore Bradley Gap He says what he thinks 45% He'd bring change to Washington He's not a typical politician He understands your problems

4 Takes N.H. concerns seriously He's honest and trustworthy He's a strong leader Knows where he wants to lead He has the right temperament He's very intelligent He can be trusted in a crisis He has the right experience He knows world affairs As with McCain in his party, sizable numbers of leaned Democrats nationally have no opinion of Bradley on these qualities. For his part, Gore does better nationally than in New Hampshire on some qualities, such as bringing change to Washington; and worse on others, such as knowledge, experience and intelligence. Gore Ratings N.H. Dem. voters National leaned Dems. He says what he thinks 45% 54 He'd bring change to Washington He knows world affairs He's honest and trustworthy He has the right experience He's very intelligent He knows world affairs He's not a typical politician FINANCE/TAXES Another issue that has some legs in New Hampshire for Bradley, and especially McCain, is campaign finance reform: Voters there trust McCain first and Bradley second to handle it, though hardly any rate it as the most important issue in their vote. Again, though, these candidates' edge on this issue fades nationally. (See separate poll analysis on campaign finance, released this morning.) Taxes, meanwhile, is one of those issues on which Bush may not be giving himself much of a boost. Among likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, 52 percent think Bush would be able to cut taxes without pushing the budget back into a deficit a majority, but hardly an impressive one. Nationally, 58 percent of leaned Republicans think he could do it. But among all Americans nationally, 59 percent think not. BRADLEY'S HEALTH Another issue is Bill Bradley's health, following his hospital check-up last week for an irregular heartbeat. It could be a problem for him: Nationally, 21 percent of Americans say this does make them concerned about his physical fitness to serve as president, including as many Democrats and independents as Republicans. There's less concern about Bradley's health half as much in New Hampshire. Concerned about Bradley's health? Yes No N.H National 11 87

5 SIR YES SIR Finally, these polls test McCain's appeal as war hero by checking his support in households that include a military service member, veteran or reservist. There's something there: Nationally, McCain's support against Bush doubles in military households, from 10 percent to 20. And in New Hampshire, he's backed by 50 percent of likely Republican voters in military households, compared to 33 percent in others. Support for McCain in Rep. Primary Military households Non-military N.H. 50% 33% National ERRATA Note: An earlier version of this analysis made brief mention of "candidate qualities" data in the national poll. TNS Intersearch, the field house for this survey, later reported that a programming error created errors in some of these results. The errors were significant in some cases, but the data were not central to the analysis and did not affect its main conclusions. This report uses corrected data in the trend section under Q13. METHODOLOGY These ABC News/Washington Post polls were conducted by telephone Dec , one among a random sample of 1,006 adults across the nation and the other among a random sample of 1,371 adults in New Hampshire, of whom 744 were identified as likely New Hampshire voters 435 Republicans and 309 Democrats. Error margins depend on sample size. The national results have an error margin of three percentage points; in New Hampshire the error margins are 3.5 points for all likely voters, 4.5 points for likely Republican voters and 5.5 points for likely Democratic voters. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: * = less than 0.5 percent 1. How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 12/15/99 Nat * 12/15/99 NH* * National trend: 10/31/ * *NH: "the presidential primary campaign in New Hampshire" 2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2000 presidential election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

6 Don t think Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin. 12/15/99 Nat /15/99 NH* * 0 3. (National poll only) If the election for president in the year 2000 were being held today, and the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican, who is the son of the former president), for whom would you vote? Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 12/15/ * /31/ * 2 2 9/2/ * 3 2 8/22/ /6/ /14/ * 2 2 Unleaned: Neither Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 10/25/ /21/ /19/ /23/ (National poll only) Do you support (Gore/Bush) strongly, or not strongly? Gore Bush Strngly Not No opin. Strngly Not No opin. 12/15/ /31/99* * /2/ /14/ * *10/99 and previous: "strongly or only somewhat" 5. (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Bill Bradley, the Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican)? None Other Wouldn't No Bradley Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 12/15/ * /31/ * 3 2 9/2/ * 2 3 3/14/ (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (John McCain, the Republican)? None Other Wouldn't No Gore McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 12/15/ * /31/ * (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Bill Bradley, the Democrat), and (John McCain, the Republican)? None Other Wouldn't No Bradley McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 12/15/ Overall, how much do you feel you know about the candidates running for president a great deal, a good amount, just some or hardly anything? --Great deal/good amount-- -Just some/hardly anything- No

7 NET Great deal Good amt. NET Some hardly anything opin. 12/15/99 Nat * 12/15/99 NH * 9. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (Gore/Bush), or not? National Poll: Bush Gore A. He s not a typical politician B. He is honest and trustworthy C. He understands the problems of people like you D. He is a strong leader E. He has the right kind of experience to be president F. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president G. He would bring needed change to Washington H. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president I. He s very intelligent J. He can be trusted in a crisis K. He has a clear idea of where he wants to lead the nation L. He says what he really thinks, even if it s not politically popular New Hampshire Poll: Among GOP Voters Among Dem. Voters Bush Gore Yes No No op. Yes No No op. A. He s not a typical politician B. He is honest and trustworthy C. He understands the problems of people like you D. He is a strong leader E. He has the right kind of experience to be president F. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president G. He would bring needed change to Washington H. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president I. He s very intelligent J. He can be trusted in a crisis K. He has a clear idea of where he wants to lead the nation L. He says what he really thinks, even if it s not politically popular M. He takes the concerns of New Hampshire voters seriously National trend (where available): B. He is honest and trustworthy 12/15/ /31/ /2/ /14/

8 C. He understands the problems of people like you 12/15/ /31/ /2/ /13/99 NA NA NA /14/ D. He is a strong leader 12/15/ /31/ /2/ /13/99 NA NA NA /14/ E. He has the right kind of experience to be president 12/15/ /31/ /2/ F. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president 12/15/ /31/ /2/ G. He would bring needed change to Washington 12/15/ /31/ /2/ H. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president 12/15/ /14/ NA NA NA J. He can be trusted in a crisis 12/15/ /2/ What's the single most important issue to you in deciding whom to support for president education, the economy, taxes, Social Security and Medicare, campaign finance reform, world affairs, health care, or what? [I'll repeat the list...] 12/15/99 Nat 12/15/99 NH Education The economy Taxes Social Security and Medicare Campaign finance reform 1 7 International affairs 6 9 Health care 15 19

9 Other 7 8 No opinion As you may know, federal law limits the amount of money people can contribute to any presidential candidate s campaign, but people can give as much money as they want to any political party. Do you think the amount of money people can contribute to political parties should be limited, or unlimited? Limited Unlimited No opin. 12/15/99 Nat /15/99 NH National trend: 10/17/ Which one of these candidates do you trust most to handle the issue of campaign finance reform: (George W. Bush), (John McCain), (Bill Bradley), or (Al Gore)? Bush McCain Bradley Gore None (vol.) No opin. 12/15/99 Nat /15/99 NH Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (McCain/Bradley), or not? National Poll: McCain Bradley----- Yes No No op. Yes No No op. A. He s not a typical politician B. He is honest and trustworthy C. He understands the problems of people like you D. He is a strong leader E. He has the right kind of experience to be president F. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president G. He would bring needed change to Washington H. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president I. He s very intelligent J. He can be trusted in a crisis K. He has a clear idea of where he wants to lead the nation L. He says what he really thinks, even if it s not politically popular New Hampshire Poll: Among GOP Voters Among Dem. Voters McCain Bradley----- A. He s not a typical politician B. He is honest and trustworthy C. He understands the problems of people like you D. He is a strong leader E. He has the right kind of experience to be president F. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president G. He would bring needed change to Washington H. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president I. He s very intelligent

10 J. He can be trusted in a crisis K. He has a clear idea of where he wants to lead the nation L. He says what he really thinks, even if it s not politically popular M. He takes the concerns of New Hampshire voters seriously Do you think George W. Bush would be able to keep the federal budget balanced and cut income taxes at the same time, or not? Yes No No opinion 12/15/99 Nat /15/99 NH Are you better off or worse off financially now than you were four years ago? Better Worse Same (vol.) No opinion 12/15/99 Nat * 12/15/99 NH National trend: 8/27/ /8/ /15/ /13/96 Reg /8/96 Like /8/96 Reg /4/96* Reg /5/96* /17/96** * 7/17/95** *"three and a half years ago" **"three years ago" 19. (Asked of leaned Republicans nationally and Republican primary voters) Suppose your state holds a Republican primary or caucus for president in 2000 and the candidates are: (READ LIST). For whom would you vote - I'll read the list again: None/ Other Wouldn t No Bush Forbes McCain Bauer Keyes Hatch (vol.) (vol.) opin. 12/15/99 Nat * 12/15/99 NH * * * 3 National trend: 10/31/ /2/99** * 2 2 8/8/99*** * 4 7 3/4/99**** NA * * 2 **Dole=15, Quayle=3, Buchanan=3 ***Dole=14, Quayle=3, Buchanan=3, Alexander < 0.5% ****Dole=25, Quayle=6, Buchanan=3, Kasich=2, Alexander=1, Smith < 0.5% 20. Do you support (Republican candidate) strongly, or not strongly? National: Strongly Not strongly No opinion George W. Bush John McCain New Hampshire: Strongly Not strongly No opinion George W. Bush John McCain

11 21. (Asked of leaned Democrats nationally and Democratic primary voters in Hew Hampshire) Suppose your state holds a Democratic primary or caucus for president in 2000 and the candidates are Al Gore and Bill Bradley. For whom would you vote? Other Neither/ No Gore Bradley (vol.) Wouldn't (vol.) opin. 12/15/99 Nat /15/99 NH * 3 4 National Trend: 10/31/ * 1 3 9/2/ * 3 4 8/15/99* /13/ * 4 5 6/6/99** /14/99*** * 2 2 *Beatty=9 **Jackson=19 ***Jackson= Do you support (Democratic candidate) strongly, or not strongly Gore Bradley Strongly Not No opin. Strongly Not No opin. 12/15/99 Nat /15/99 NH As you may have heard, Bill Bradley has a medical condition that requires him to take medication for an occasional irregular heartbeat. Does this make you concerned about Bradley s physical fitness to serve as president, or do you think his condition is not that serious? Concerned about fitness Condition not No to serve as president that serious opin. 12/15/99 Nat /15/99 NH ***END***