Iraq, Economy and the Democrats Push Bush s Popularity to a Career Low

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: BUSH, KERRY & WMDs 2/11/04 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 p.m., Thursday, Feb. 12, 2004 Iraq, Economy and the Democrats Push Bush s Popularity to a Career Low George W. Bush is at a low point in public approval in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, his popularity depressed by questions about the Iraq war, continued economic frustration and public interest in his leading Democratic rival. Bush s overall job approval rating has fallen to 50 percent, a career low. His rating for honesty and trustworthiness is likewise at a new low. For the first time, fewer than half of Americans now say the war with Iraq was worth fighting. Fifty-seven percent disapprove of Bush s performance in terms of job creation. And John Kerry leads him in a head-tohead match-up, percent, although Kerry s support is noticeably softer. Context is critical: These results come at the zenith of the Democratic primary season, after a period of intense and positive coverage of Kerry; and they follow a slump for Bush extending from his poorly reviewed State of the Union address through his admission that Iraq might not have had weapons of mass destruction after all. Bush: Honest and Trustworthy? ABC News/Washington Post polls 80% 71% 70% 70% Yes 62% 63% 60% 59% 60% 52% 50% 45% No 32% 34% 26% 26% 39% 40% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4/22/2001 7/30/2001 7/15/ /15/2002 9/13/ /29/2003 2/11/2004 While this poll underscores Bush s vulnerabilities, he does retain his core strengths broad approval for handling the war on terrorism and an image as a strong leader. And

2 while most Americans believe his administration intentionally exaggerated evidence of Iraq s WMDs, far fewer (21 percent) think it outright lied; indeed two-thirds think the administration honestly believed Iraq did possess these weapons. Most also continue to say the war has contributed to the long-term security of the United States. Was the War with Iraq Worth Fighting? ABC News/Washington Post polls 80% 70% Yes 60% 50% 40% 30% No 20% 10% 0% 4/30/03 6/22/03 7/10/03 8/11/03 8/24/03 9/7/03 9/13/03 10/13/03 10/29/03 11/16/03 12/14/03 12/21/03 1/18/04 2/11/04 On another front, questions about Bush s National Guard duty during the Vietnam War lack traction: Americans by more than 2-1, percent, say it s not a legitimate issue in the election campaign. More, by contrast, say it is legitimate to look into questions about Kerry s fundraising as a U.S. senator (a percent split). And as noted, Bush s support is firmer than the less well-known Kerry s: Eighty-three percent of Bush s backers support him strongly, compared with 59 percent of Kerry s. But there s no doubt that the president s in some difficulty. The number of Americans who view him as honest and trustworthy has dived from 70 percent before the Iraq war to 52 percent now. It is threatening for a president to have his fundamental veracity in some doubt, particularly on issues of policy rather than (as with Bill Clinton) personal conduct. Fifty-seven percent also think Bush doesn t understand the problems of ordinary Americans. And majorities rate Bush negatively on four of six issues tested in this poll the economy, Iraq, health insurance and job creation. (The last is particularly sensitive given the current flap on outsourcing jobs overseas, which Bush s chief economic adviser said Monday was a good thing. )

3 Intensity of feeling is up, as happens during presidential election campaigns; the number of Americans who strongly disapprove of Bush s work in office now for the first time slightly exceeds those who strongly approve. And Kerry leads Bush in trust to handle four of six issues health costs, jobs, the economy, and education leaving Bush the lead on Iraq and the war on terrorism. Job Approval: George W. Bush, 2001-Present ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls 100% 90% Approve Disapprove 9/11/01 Attacks War with Iraq begins 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 2/25/01 6/3/01 9/9/01 10/9/01 12/19/01 3/28/02 6/9/02 7/28/02 10/27/02 1/27/03 2/9/03 3/20/03 4/9/03 6/22/03 9/13/03 10/29/03 12/14/03 2/11/04 Bush Rating Approve Disapprove App. Net Overall 50% War on terrorism Education Iraq Economy Creating jobs Health costs % 10% 0% Trust to Handle it Bush Kerry Bush Net War on terrorism 53% Iraq Education Economy Creating jobs Health costs The trend line of Bush s overall job approval rating since taking office is telling. From a middling level, his support soared after 9/11 and settled back only gradually, remaining

4 remarkably high for nearly two years, including another peak during the Iraq war last spring. His rating dropped last summer and fall amid trouble in Iraq and economic concern at home; it then leveled, and rebounded a bit after the capture of Saddam Hussein, but now has dropped again. None of this is predictive of what will occur in the presidential election nine months off. (It s worth noting that the leader in the pre-election polls in June 1992 Ross Perot fizzled fast.) But at this point in a presidential year what matters more than a president s approval rating is its trajectory, and Bush s, at the moment, is not good. What he hopes to avoid is the fate of his father, who was at 46 percent approval in February 1992 and falling fast, en route to defeat in November. Among the critical factors is the economy. Consumer confidence as measured in the weekly ABC News/Money magazine poll is far better now than it was in But after recovering somewhat in December, public ratings of Bush s economic performance have turned more sour. Forty-seven percent of Americans say most people have gotten worse off financially while he s been president, up seven points. Disapproval of his handling of the economy has increased by 10 points, to 54 percent; it s been numerically higher only once, 56 percent in mid-september. Americans' Financial Situation Since Bush Took Office ABC News/Washington Post polls 70% 60% Worse Same 52% 48% 49% 42% 41% 43% 41% 42% 38% 40% 47% 38% 50% 40% 30% Better 10% 9% 9% 17% 13% 14% 20% 10% 0% 4/30/03 9/13/03 10/29/03 12/21/03 1/18/04 2/11/04 Empathy can help shield a president from these and other slings and arrows, but here, too, Bush has trouble. At its peak in January 2002, not long after 9/11, 61 percent of Americans said Bush understands the problems of people like them. Today that s down to 41 percent.

5 WAR and WEAPONS Finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq never has been a central demand; in this poll 57 percent say the war can be justified even if WMDs are not found (near what it was in December, and also last summer). But there was and for many still is an expectation that these weapons do, or did, exist. In December 2002, as the administration built its case for war, 89 percent of Americans believed that Iraq did have such weapons; even today, 61 percent still think it did have WMDs that have not been found. More critical, politically, is whether the administration fairly made its case. On one hand 68 percent in this poll think the administration honestly believed that Iraq possessed WMDs; on the other, 54 percent think it intentionally exaggerated its evidence. (It was nearly the same, 50 percent, last summer.) 60% 50% 54% Did the Administration Intentionally Exaggerate Evidence of WMDs? ABC News/Washington Post poll 40% 31% Exaggerated without lying 42% 30% 20% 10% 21% Lied 0% Yes No INVESTIGATION It follows that more people say the investigation into this issue should focus on the way the administration handled the intelligence, rather than on the accuracy of the intelligence itself (53-35 percent, with seven percent saying both should be focused on equally). More also would prefer to see an answer sooner before the presidential election rather than later. Bush s plan a broader investigation into the quality of U.S. intelligence, with a report after the election is preferred by just 35 percent. Instead 51 percent prefer a narrower investigation focused on the accuracy and use of Iraq intelligence, with results before Nov. 2. And a few want both.

6 WORTH FIGHTING? Another central political battle is the fundamental question of whether the war in Iraq was worth fighting. A variety of cost-benefit factors play into this evaluation security, casualties, money costs, and progress on the ground in establishing a functioning government and bringing the troops home. The result of this equation today is far less positive than it was in the heady days after the fall of Baghdad. Last April, just as Bush was about to declare the main fighting over, 70 percent of Americans said the war was worth fighting. Today that s dropped to 48 percent as noted, under a majority for the first time. A striking difference in views of the war comes from assessments of whether it has or has not contributed to the long-term security of the United States. Among people who say it s contributed a great deal to U.S. security (a third of the public), 85 percent say the war was worth fighting. Among those who say it s contributed somewhat, 60 percent say it was worth it. But among those who don t see security gains, just one in 10 says it was worth going to war with Iraq. War Worth Fighting? Did the war improve U.S. security? Yes No Yes, a great deal (32%) 85% 13 Yes, somewhat (26%) No (38%) GROUPS There are significant differences across population groups on many of these issues. On a variety of fronts Bush s support is stronger among men and weaker among women. In particular women are much less likely to approve of his handling of Iraq or the war on terrorism, and they prefer Kerry over Bush by a 17-point margin, while men split evenly. Part of these differences are because women are more likely to be Democrats; but even among Democrats only, women tend to be more critical of Bush. Bush also is less popular among older Americans, who, among other factors, continue to be more skeptical of the war in Iraq; six in 10 seniors believe it was not worth fighting. Some of Bush's strongest support comes from those who say Americans are better off financially than when he took office (although there are comparatively few of them 14 percent of the public). His approval also exceeds 80 percent among those who say the war was worth fighting and who think it improved security a great deal. Matched against Kerry, Bush does best again among those who are more content with his economic performance and those who feel a great deal safer because of the war; he s also preferred, naturally, by 85 percent of Republicans, and by 64 percent of conservatives.

7 70% Trust to Handle the Issues ABC News/Washington Post poll 60% 50% 53% 48% Bush Kerry 49% 49% 51% 52% 40% 37% 41% 41% 40% 37% 34% 30% 20% 10% 0% War on Terrorism Iraq The Economy Education Creating jobs Health insurance In addition to Democrats and liberals, Kerry is strongest among those who think Bush isn't honest and trustworthy, who believe the administration lied about WMDs, who oppose the war and think it didn't improve U.S. security, and who think most Americans have lost ground financially under this president. All these look to be the central issues on which the 2004 presidential election will be fought. METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Feb , 2004, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at: < Media contacts: Cathie Levine, (212) or Lisa Finkel, (212) Results follow. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? Approve Disapprove No

8 NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 2/11/ /18/ /21/ /14/ /7/ /16/ /29/ /13/ /30/ /13/ /7/ /11/ /10/ /22/ /30/ /16/ /9/ /3/ /23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4 3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 3/2/ /23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6 2/9/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/02 All /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /17/ /9/ /19/ /21/ /28/ /10/ /27/ /19/ /27/ /6/ /9/ /27/ /13/ /9/ /12/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (ITEM)? 2/11/04 - Summary Table

9 Approve Disapprove No op. a. The economy b. The situation in Iraq c. Creating jobs d. The US campaign against terrorism e. Education f. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance Trend: a. The economy Approve Disapprove No opinion 2/11/ /18/ /21/ /16/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /7/ /11/ /10/ /30/ /9/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /5/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/ /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /21/ /27/ /19/ /6/ /9/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/ b. The situation in Iraq Approve Disapprove No opinion 2/11/ /18/ /21/ /14/ /16/ /29/ /13/

10 9/29/ /13/ /7/ /24/ /11/ /10/ /22/ /30/ Compare to: The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein 3/27/ /23/ /20/ /17/ /9/ /23/ /9/ /5/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/ /26/ /14/ /29/ c. Creating jobs Approve Disapprove No opinion 2/11/ /13/ d. The US campaign against terrorism Approve Disapprove No opinion 2/11/ /18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /7/ /30/ /9/ /1/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/02 All /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /19/02*

11 4/21/02* /10/02* /27/ /19/01* /15/01* *Asked very/somewhat follow-up e. Education Approve Disapprove No opinion 2/11/ /18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /30/ /15/ /26/ /15/ /27/ /9/ /30/ /3/ /22/ f. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance Approve Disapprove No opinion 2/11/ /18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /30/ /28/ /20/ /15/ How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 2/11/ * 1/18/ * 10/29/ /13/ * 4. If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush, the Republican), or for (John Kerry, the Democrat)? Net Leaned Vote: Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 2/11/04 All RV /29/03 All * RV /13/ * 3 2 2

12 4/30/ * b. (ASKED OF UNLEANED BUSH SUPPORTERS) Do you support Bush strongly or not strongly? Strongly Not strongly No opinion 2/11/ c. (ASKED OF UNLEANED KERRY SUPPORTERS) Do you support Kerry strongly or not strongly? Strongly Not strongly No opinion 2/11/ Who do you trust to do a better job handling (ITEM), (Bush) or (Kerry)? 2/11/04 - Summary Table Both Neither No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. a. The economy b. The situation in Iraq c. Creating jobs d. The US campaign against terrorism e. Education f. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially? Better Not as The No off well off same opinion 2/11/ /18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /30/ George H. W. Bush 8/9/ /21/ /4/ /16/ Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Bush or not. 2/11/04 - Summary Table Yes No No opin. a. He is honest and trustworthy b. He understands the problems of people like you c. He is a strong leader Trend:

13 a. He is honest and trustworthy Yes No No opin. 2/11/ /29/ /13/ /15/ /15/ /30/ /22/ /5/00 LV /4/00 LV /24/00 LV /15/00 LV /15/00 RV /6/00 RV /23/00 RV /23/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /14/ b. He understands the problems of people like you Yes No No opin. 2/11/ /18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /30/ /15/ /15/ /27/ /30/ /22/ /4/00 LV /24/00 LV /15/00 RV /9/00 RV /6/00 RV /20/00 RV /23/00 RV /23/ /11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /14/ c. He is a strong leader Yes No No opin. 2/11/ /21/ /29/

14 9/13/ * 4/30/ * 12/15/ /15/ /30/ /22/ /9/00 RV /6/00 RV /20/00 RV /10/00 RV /23/00 RV /23/ /11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /14/ Do you think (ITEM) are or are not a legitimate issue in this year s presidential election? 2/11/04 Legitimate Not legitimate No issue issue opin. a. Questions about Bush s service in the National Guard during the Vietnam War b. Questions about Kerry s fundraising while a U.S. Senator On another subject, all in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Worth Not worth No fighting fighting opinion 2/11/ /18/ /21/ /14/ /16/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /7/ /24/ /11/ /10/ /22/ /30/ Gulf War: 2/2/92* /28/

15 6/2/ /4/ *2/2/92 and previous: "the Persian Gulf war"; 3/4/91: "this war 10. Do you think the war with Iraq has or has not contributed to the longterm security of the United States? IF YES: Has it contributed to the long-term security of the United States a great deal or somewhat? Contributed Has No NET Great deal Somewhat not opin. 2/11/ /18/ /21/ /10/03* *"did or did not" 11. Do you think the United States can justify the war only if it finds weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical or biological weapons, in Iraq; or do you think the United States can justify the war for other reasons, even if it does not find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Justify only Justify even Neither/No No if find WMD if no WMD justification opinion 2/11/ /21/ /22/03* /3/ /20/ *"this war" 12. Before the war began, do you think the Bush administration did or did not intentionally exaggerate its evidence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction? Did Did not No opinion 2/11/ /10/03* *"such as biological or chemical weapons" 13. Do you think the Bush administration lied about its evidence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, or exaggerated without lying? Exaggerated Lied without lying No opinion 2/11/ /13 NET Exaggerated Did No NET Lied Exagg. DK not opin. 2/11/ Regardless of whether or not it exaggerated the evidence, do you think the Bush administration honestly believed that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, or not? Honestly Did not honestly

16 believed believe No opinion 2/11/ Which of these do you think is a more important issue: The accuracy of the intelligence about Iraq that the administration received from the CIA and other sources, or the way the administration used that intelligence? Accuracy of the Way intelligence Both Not imp. No intelligence was used (vol.) (vol.) opin. 2/11/ Do you think Iraq did have weapons of mass destruction that have not been found, or do you think Iraq did not have any weapons of mass destruction? Did have weapons Did not have weapons No opinion 2/11/ Compare to: Do you think Iraq currently does or does not have weapons of mass destruction - meaning chemical, biological or nuclear weapons? Yes, has No, does not No weapons have weapons opinion 12/15/ Which of these do you think is more important right now: (to have a commission look into the accuracy and use of pre-war intelligence about Iraq, with a report BEFORE the November election) or (to have a commission take a wider look at the accuracy of U.S. intelligence overall, with a report AFTER the November election)? Iraq intelligence, Overall intelligence, Both Neither No before election after election (vol.) (vol.) opin. 2/11/ ***END***