Most Support Allied Attack Even Without U.N. Support

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: IRAQ AND THE U.S. - 2/9/03 EMBARGO: 6:30 P.M. BROADCAST, 8 P.M. PRINT/WEB, Monday, Feb. 10, 2003 Most Support Allied Attack Even Without U.N. Support Most Americans say they d support an allied attack against Iraq even over United Nations objections, a further sign of the public support that s mustered behind the Bush administration in recent weeks. A steady two-thirds favor using force to oust Saddam Hussein. As has been well noted, that falls to half if the United Nations opposes it. But this poll poses another scenario: U.N. opposition, but backing from some U.S. allies, such as Great Britain, Australia and Italy. In that case support for attacking rebounds to 57 percent. Support Oppose Military action to oust Saddam 66% 31...if the U.N. opposes it if some allies support it, but U.N. is opposed This finding makes the public s desire for United Nations authorization look more like a preference than a condition. That s a contrast from public opinion in Europe, where polls have found that U.N. approval widely is seen as a prerequisite for war. 70% 66% Support for Attacking Iraq ABC News/Washington Post poll 60% 57% 50% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Favor attacking Iraq Favor if UN opposes Favor if UN opposes, but some allies support it

2 Americans support for the administration s position slipped in mid-january but has regained strength since, starting even before George W. Bush s State of the Union address and Colin Powell s address to the Security Council last week. Evidence seems to be a key reason: Sixty-three percent now say the administration has presented enough evidence to justify force, a new high, up from 48 percent in mid-january. Today strong support for attacking Iraq outstrips strong opposition by nearly 3-1, double its margin in mid-january. More than half of opponents say they might change their minds (compared to three in 10 supporters). And 59 percent favor giving the U.N. weapons inspectors weeks, not months, to finish their work. Nonetheless, preference for a broad alliance trumps the desire for speed suggesting the administration needs to walk a fine line between the two. Fifty-nine percent of Americans say it s more important to gain international support, even if that delays acting against Iraq; 37 percent prefer quick action, even without international support. The reasons for public support for attacking Iraq are straightforward: Most Americans believe it s a threat to the United States, it has weapons of mass destruction, it supports terrorists, it s not cooperating with the U.N. inspectors and it s not a good candidate for diplomatic negotiations. Those leave little room for alternatives. NORTH KOREA There s an instructive contrast with North Korea. In dealing with Iraq, just 30 percent of Americans see a chance that diplomacy and negotiation can solve the problem; 69 percent see little or no chance of it. With North Korea it s the opposite: 65 percent do see a chance for diplomacy. But the sharp words between Pyongyang and Washington have not gone unnoticed. Confidence in negotiation with North Korea has lost 13 points since mid-january. 80% 70% 60% Chance for Diplomacy? Iraq v. North Korea ABC News/Washington Post poll 69% Yes No 65% 50% 40% 30% 30% 30% 20% 10% 0% Iraq North Korea

3 Think diplomacy 2/9 1/20 and negotiation can work Yes No Yes No...with Iraq 30% 69 38% 60...with North Korea APPREHENSION Accordingly, the public by a substantial margin, percent, sees Iraq as a greater threat than North Korea to the United States. And twice as many Americans are very worried about the situation with Iraq 39 percent, compared to 20 percent very worried about North Korea. Iraq also easily trumps the economy as a high-level concern, despite considerable economic dissatisfaction these days. Very worried Not very worried Iraq 39% 60 North Korea The economy HOME FRONT The economy nonetheless represents a continued challenge for Bush on the home front. When he took office, 70 percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape; today 72 percent say it s in bad shape ( not good or even poor ). Fortynine percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, while just 47 percent approve. In a recent memo, a Republican Party pollster noted that Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both were re-elected with overall job approval ratings in the mid- to high 50s, and Bush s is better than that. However, Reagan and Clinton also had approvals in the mid- to high 50s specifically on handling the economy. On that, Bush s rating is worse. In another measure of the public mood, Americans divide evenly, 49 to 49 percent, on whether they re dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States. This is both an economic and political measure, but largely an economic one: Among people who say the economy s in good shape, 84 percent are satisfied; among those who say it s in poor shape, 87 percent are dissatisfied. Those who say it s not good divide about evenly. Partisanship is a factor as well: Seventy percent of Republicans are satisfied with the way things are going; 69 percent of Democrats are dissatisfied, and independents divide about evenly. In an issue related to his economic stewardship, Bush also has a weak rating on handling the federal budget 45 percent approve (including three-quarters of Republicans) while 45 percent disapprove (including three-quarters of Democrats). Previous ABC/Post polls have shown broad doubts about Bush s tax-cut plan and a preference for either greater spending on domestic programs, or deficit reduction. OTHER APPROVALS With just half the public satisfied with the country s direction, and economic views as weak as they are, Bush s overall job approval rating continues to hold up quite well it s now 64 percent, after slipping to 59 percent in January polls. And twice as many strongly approve of his work as strongly disapprove.

4 100% 90% Bush Job Approval ABC News/Washington Post poll 80% 70% Approve 60% 50% 40% 30% Disapprove 20% 10% 0% 2/25/01 3/25/01 4/25/01 5/25/01 6/25/01 7/25/01 8/25/01 9/25/01 10/25/01 11/25/01 12/25/01 1/25/02 2/25/02 3/25/02 4/25/02 5/25/02 6/25/02 7/25/02 8/25/02 9/25/02 10/25/02 11/25/02 12/25/02 1/25/03 As it s been since Sept. 11, 2001, the driving force behind Bush s approval rating is his response to terrorism: 74 percent approve. Even among Democrats, who find fault with Bush in many areas, 60 percent approve of his handling of the U.S. campaign against terrorism. (Among Republicans, it s a nearly unanimous 94 percent.) On handling Iraq, 61 percent approve of Bush s work, and here partisanship is high: Eighty-four percent of Republicans approve, but only 39 percent of Democrats agree. Bush has a lower approval rating, 50 percent, on handling North Korea; 36 percent disapprove, and 14 percent more than on other issues are undecided. REBUILDING IRAQ If there is war with Iraq, analysts say a substantial rebuilding effort will need to follow and that s an element the public doesn t appear to have countenanced. On its face, 65 percent say that after a war the United States should work to rebuild and stabilize Iraq. But that drops to 37 percent if it means keeping 50,000 troops there for several years, and spending $15 billion a year, an estimate by a Brookings Institution economist cited by the Washington Post late last year. METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 6-9, 2003, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, PA. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at:

5 Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) Results follow. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 2/9/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/02 All /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /17/ /9/ /19/ /21/ /28/ /10/ /27/ /19/ /27/ /6/ /9/ /27/ /13/ /9/ /12/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling: 2/9/03 - Summary Table* Approve Disapprove No op. a. The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein b. The economy c. The U.S. campaign against terrorism d. The federal budget e. The situation with North Korea *All respondents asked item a. Half sample asked b-c, other half asked d-e. Trend:

6 a. The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein Approve Disapprove No opinion 2/9/ /5/03 All Watched Powell* Didn't watch /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/02 All /27/02 LV /26/ /14/ /29/ *Listened, watched, heard or read about it b. The economy Approve Disapprove No opinion 2/9/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /5/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/ /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /21/ /27/ /19/ /6/ /9/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/ c. The U.S. campaign against terrorism Approve Disapprove No opinion 2/9/ /1/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/02 All /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/02* /19/ /21/

7 3/10/ /27/ /19/ /15/ *Strongly/somewhat follow, 7/15 and previous d. The federal budget Approve Disapprove No opinion 2/9/ /1/ /20/ /15/ /27/ /9/ /30/ e. The situation with North Korea Approve Disapprove No opinion 2/9/ /20/ In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Satisfied Dissatisfied No opinion 2/9/ /30/ /4/00 LV /3/00 LV /2/00 LV Which of these two nations do you think poses a greater threat to the United States - (North Korea) or (Iraq)? North Both Neither No Korea Iraq (vol.) (vol.) opin. 2/9/ /5/ Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? ----Excellent/Good Not so good/poor----- No NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op. 2/9/ * 1/20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV * 9/26/ * 7/15/ /21/ * 1/27/ * 9/20/ /9/ * 7/30/ * 4/22/ * 1/15/ /27/00 LV * 10/26/00 LV * 6/11/ * 2/27/ *

8 10/31/ /2/ /14/ /1/ /1/98 LV * 10/13/ * 6. How do you feel about (READ ITEM) - very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried or not worried at all? 2/9/03 - Summary Table: -----Worried Not worried---- No NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all op. a. The situation w/north Korea b. The situation w/iraq c. The economic situation Would you favor or oppose having U.S. forces take military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power? Would you say you favor/oppose military action against Iraq strongly or only somewhat? Favor Oppose No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat op. 2/9/ /5/03 All Watched Powell Didn't watch /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /17/02 64 NA NA 29 NA NA 7 9/26/02 61 NA NA 34 NA NA 5 9/14/02 68 NA NA 29 NA NA 3 8/29/02 56 NA NA 34 NA NA 10 8/11/02 69 NA NA 22 NA NA 9 3/10/02 72 NA NA 24 NA NA 4 2/21/ /27/02 71 NA NA 24 NA NA 4 12/19/01 72 NA NA 24 NA NA 5 11/27/01 78 NA NA 17 NA NA 6 10/11/94* 72 NA NA 23 NA NA 5 1/15/93** 82 NA NA 15 NA NA 3 8/21/92 RV 65 NA NA 30 NA NA 5 2/9/92 62 NA NA 35 NA NA 3 4/22/91 51 NA NA 43 NA NA 6 4/5/91 54 NA NA 37 NA NA 9 3/15/91 57 NA NA 38 NA NA 5 *10/11/94 and previous: Gallup **1/15/93 and previous: Would you support or oppose having U.S. forces resume military action...? 8. (IF FAVOR, Q7) What if the United Nations opposes such action - in that case would you favor or oppose having U.S. forces take military action against Iraq? Q7/8 NET Favor Oppose No opinion 2/9/ /5/03 All Watched Powell Didn't watch /1/ /28/ /27/

9 12/15/02* *Wording: Would you favor or oppose having U.S. forces take military action against Iraq, even if the United Nations opposes such action? 9. (IF FAVOR, Q7) What if the United Nations opposes such action but some U.S. allies such as Great Britain, Australia and Italy support it - in that case would you favor or oppose having U.S. forces take military action against Iraq? Q7/9 NET Favor Oppose No opinion 2/9/ Do you think the Bush administration has or has not presented enough evidence to show why the United States should use military force to remove Saddam Hussein from power? Enough Not enough No opinion 2/9/ /5/03 All Watched Powell Didn't watch /1/ /20/ Do you think the United States has or has not presented strong evidence showing that Iraq (READ ITEM)? 2/9/03 Summary Table: Has Has not No opin. a. has chemical and biological weapons b. is trying to develop nuclear weapons c. has provided direct support to the Al Qaeda terrorist group d. is not cooperating with the United Nations weapons inspectors Trend: a. has chemical and biological weapons Has Has not No opin. 2/9/ /5/03 All Watched Powell Didn't watch b. is trying to develop nuclear weapons Has Has not No opin. 2/9/ /5/03 All Watched Powell Didn't watch c. has provided direct support to the Al Qaeda terrorist group Has Has not No opin. 2/9/ /5/03 All Watched Powell Didn't watch d. is not cooperating with the United Nations weapons inspectors Has Has not No opin. 2/9/

10 2/5/03 All Watched Powell Didn't watch Before deciding whether to attack Iraq, how much longer do you think the administration should give the United Nations weapons inspectors to search for chemical, biological and nuclear weapons there - a few weeks, a few months, or more than that? Weeks or less Months or more--- Less than few Few Few No NET weeks (vol.) weeks NET months More op. 2/9/ /5/03 All Watched Powell Didn't watch /1/ Do you think the U.N. inspectors will or will not be able to find hard evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Will Will not No opin. 2/9/ What do you think is more important - (for the United States to move quickly against Iraq, even if that means acting without international support); or (for the United States to gain international support, even if that delays action against Iraq)? Move Gain No quickly support opinion 2/9/ /5/03 All Watched Powell Didn't watch /27/ How much of a chance do you think there is that diplomacy and negotiation can resolve the problem with Iraq - is there a good chance of that, some chance, little chance, or hardly any chance? Good/Some Little/Hardly any/none Good Some Little Hardly any None No NET chance chance NET chance chance (vol.) opin. 2/9/ /20/ How about in the situation involving North Korea? How much of a chance do you think there is that diplomacy and negotiation can resolve the problem with North Korea - is there a good chance of that, some chance, little chance, or hardly any chance? Good/Some Little/Hardly any/none Good Some Little Hardly any None No NET chance chance NET chance chance (vol.) opin. 2/9/ /20/ What s the chance you might change your mind on whether the United States should or should not attack Iraq - is there a good chance you might change your mind on that, some chance, little chance or no chance of it? Good/Some Little/None----- Good Some Little No No

11 NET chance chance NET chance chance opin. 2/9/ Suppose the United States goes to war with Iraq. After the war ends, do you think the United States should or should not work to rebuild and stabilize Iraq? Should Should not No opin. 2/9/ (IF SHOULD, Q18) What if that means the United States would need to keep 50,000 U.S. troops in Iraq for several years and would spend 15 billion dollars a year rebuilding Iraq. In that case would you favor or oppose the U.S. rebuilding Iraq? Q18/19 NET Favor Oppose No opinion 2/9/ Held for release. ***END***