Bush s Popularity is Narrowly Based; Democrats Match Him in Public Trust

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: STATE OF THE UNION 1/18/04 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5:00 p.m., Monday, Jan. 19, 2004 Bush s Popularity is Narrowly Based; Democrats Match Him in Public Trust George W. Bush starts his fourth year in office with an intricate riddle unsolved: How to translate his broad popularity in one critical area fighting terrorism into strength in others where he s substantially weaker, from the economy to a range of domestic issues. Despite his strengths, the task is a pressing one: On the eve of his third State of the Union address and at the start of an election year, the Democrats in Congress now match Bush in public trust to handle the nation s main problems, 44 percent to 45 percent. That s Bush s weakest result on this question in the last two years, and it underscores his conundrum: His overall job approval rating 58 percent, fueled by 66 percent approval for handling terrorism is much better than his ratings on a variety of individual issues would imply. The president s strength is significant but narrowly based, and that makes it potentially vulnerable. Bush 62% Democrats 31% Trust to Handle the Country's Main Problems ABC News/Washington Post polls 53% 37% 54% 38% 55% 37% 45% 44% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1/27/02 7/15/02 9/26/02 4/30/03 1/18/04 Indeed out of 10 issues tested in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, the Democrats lead Bush in trust to handle six (three of which health insurance, prescription drugs and

2 Medicare are related.) They re tied in two, taxes and education, and Bush leads by wide margins in two others, terrorism and the situation in Iraq. The Democrats lead, albeit by smaller margins, in trust to handle the economy, the budget deficit, health insurance, Medicare, prescription drug benefits and immigration issues. Trust to handle: Bush Democrats Bush Net Nation s main problems 45% War on terrorism Situation in Iraq Education Taxes Immigration issues Economy Rx drug benefits Federal budget deficit Medicare Health insurance issues % 60% 50% Trust to Handle the Issues ABC News/Washington Post poll Bush Democrats 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% War on Terrorism Iraq Country's main problems Education Taxes Immigration The Economy Prescrip. Drugs Budget Medicare Health insurance On these and other issues, recent efforts by Bush to seize the initiative have fallen short. Polls last week found majority opposition to his temporary amnesty plan for illegal immigrants. In this survey 62 percent oppose the manned space program he s proposed, and 56 percent oppose a government role in promoting traditional marriage, said to be one theme of his address Tuesday night.

3 At the same time, on balance, Bush s overall grades are more positive than negative. Beyond his overall job approval rating are Americans personal reactions to his administration s policies: Fifty-four percent positive (either enthusiastic or satisfied), compared with 45 percent negative (dissatisfied or angry). The public s attention, however, may be turning toward some of Bush s weaker suits. The number of Americans who want him to devote most of his State of the Union speech to domestic issues (as opposed to the economy or terrorism) has risen from 31 percent just before the 2002 address to 40 percent today. Want Bush s address to focus on: 1/04 1/02 Change Domestic issues 40% The economy Terrorism APPROVALS Bush s approval ratings on specific issues tell a similar story to his standing versus the Democrats. His strongest rating is for handling the war on terrorism; as noted, 66 percent approve. Fifty-five percent approve of his handling of the situation in Iraq (it was 60 percent just after the capture of Saddam Hussein), and 55 percent approve of his work on education, a key domestic issue on which he s maintained a good score. But on handling the economy Bush gets a closer percent split in approval; it s a percent split on taxes; and more disapprove than approve of his work on Medicare, drug benefits and especially health insurance (55 percent disapprove), immigration issues (56 percent disapprove) and the deficit (58 percent disapprove). Approval on terrorism, Iraq and the economy are more highly correlated with Bush s overall approval rating than are his ratings on any other individual issues. Bush s handling of: Approve Disapprove App. Net Job overall 58% War on terrorism Education Situation in Iraq Economy Taxes Rx drug benefits Medicare Health insurance issues Immigration issues Federal budget deficit

4 70% 60% 50% 66% 58% Bush's Approval Ratings ABC News/Washington Post poll 55% 55% 51% 45% 40% 39% 37% 36% 35% 34% 30% 20% 10% 0% War on Terrorism Overall job Iraq Education The Economy Taxes Prescrip. Drugs Health insurance Medicare Budget Immigration COMPARISONS Even if Bush s overall approval rating is narrowly based, and thus potentially vulnerable, it s still darn good. Looking back nearly a half century, only one previous president has had a higher approval rating in January of a re-election year Dwight Eisenhower in But what probably matters more than a president s overall approval rating is its trajectory. Jimmy Carter had the same approval rating in January 1980 as Bush has today but he was headed south, and lost re-election. Bush s direction is tricky to discern; he s down from a war-inflated high last spring, but up from recent lows this past fall as economic discontent eased somewhat. Approve Disapprove Trajectory Outcome Bush 1/18/04 58% 40?? Clinton 1/7/ Steady Won G.H.W. Bush 1/15/ Falling fast; 33 by August Lost Reagan 1/17/ Steady Won Carter 1/28/ Soon to fall; 39 by March Lost Ford 1/26/ Steady Lost Nixon 1/10/ Rising; 56 by March, 62 by May Won LBJ 1/9/ Soon to fall; 35 by August Dropped out Eisenhower 1/ Steady Won (ABC/Post, Gallup polls) Bush s rating may be somewhat changeable in the pull of the issues; five national polls in the past week have put it variously at 59, 58, 54, 53 and 50 percent. Given the range of Bush s ratings on specific issues, top issues on the respondents minds may play a role.

5 (Bush approval was the first question in this poll, so it couldn t have been influenced by anything preceding.) GENERIC The division in trust to handle the nation s main problems is reflected in another question, the generic horse race asking people if they re more inclined to support Bush or the Democratic nominee for president. It s about an even split in this poll; 48 percent for Bush, 46 percent for the Democrat. That s about back to where it was last fall, settling from percent in mid-december, when Bush had a bump from Saddam s capture and brighter economic sentiment. Again, it shows potential vulnerability for Bush, but potential only; he s led every named Democrat in every horse-race match-up in every publicly released poll this election cycle, save for a single Gallup poll last September. Campaign '04: Bush vs Generic Democrat ABC News/Washington Post polls 60% Bush 53% 55% 48% 49% 44% 48% 45% 48% 47% 50% 48% 46% 50% 45% Democrat 40% 40% 41% 40% 35% 30% 04/30/03 08/11/03 09/13/03 10/13/03 10/29/03 12/21/03 1/18/04 ECONOMY The economy s likely to be a prominent feature this election year; it s axiomatic that absent an unpopular war, nothing hurts a president as much as economic discontent. Bush was helped last fall by improving economic views: The number of Americans saying the economy s in bad shape fell from 70 percent in September to 57 percent late last month. That trend, though, has paused; in this poll about the same number, 58 percent, say the economy s bad. Moreover, 42 percent say most Americans are worse off than they were when Bush became president; this, too, has stalled after improving by 12 points. Just 13

6 percent say most people have gotten better off under Bush, a criticism his political opponents can be expected to hit hard and often. Americans' Financial Situation Since Bush Took Office ABC News/Washington Post polls 70% 60% Worse Same 48% 42% 52% 38% 49% 41% 41% 40% 43% 42% 50% 40% 30% 17% 20% Better 10% 9% 9% 13% 10% 0% 4/30/03 9/13/03 10/29/03 12/21/03 1/18/04 LOVE AND ANGER Personally, Bush has an empathy deficit: Fifty-six percent don t think he understands the problems of people like them. That s just two points from its peak last fall, and it makes it harder for Bush to connect with a personal appeal apart from his ratings on the issues. As far as love him/hate him, 30 percent strongly disapprove of Bush s overall job performance, while 35 percent strongly approve. While strong disapproval is at a career high for Bush, it s been as high or higher for his predecessors: Bill Clinton s strong disapproval hit 33 percent, Bush s father s 34 percent, Ronald Reagan s 37 percent, Jimmy Carter s 30 percent. In politics, some people just aren t going to like you. On policy, as well, there are people at the extremes 15 percent of Americans are angry about the administration s policies, while across the spectrum about as many, 12 percent, are enthusiastic about them. But quite a few more, 24 percent, were angry about the way things were going in April 1992, when economic discontent was higher. IRAQ and TERRORISM Given their importance in his overall performance, views of the war in Iraq and the campaign against terrorism are key for Bush. On terrorism they are very good; on Iraq, good, but less uniformly so.

7 On the positive side for Bush, 56 percent say the war with Iraq was worth fighting (four in 10 say not) and 59 percent believe it has contributed to the long-term security of the United States. Fewer, however 34 percent say it s contributed a great deal to U.S. security, perhaps leaving the cost-benefit equation open for further debate. Casualties, moreover, are a continued concern: Sixty-two percent say there has been an unacceptable number of U.S. military casualties in Iraq, two points from the peak in November and more than double the number at the fall of Baghdad last April. The question of whether the war has contributed to U.S. security is central to its support. Among people who say it has improved security, eight in 10 say the war was worth fighting. Among those who see no improvement, eight in 10 say it wasn t. In terms of terrorism, 55 percent now express confidence in the ability of the U.S. government to prevent further attacks in this country, up 10 points from last fall (the capture of Saddam may have helped). Two-thirds say the country is safer from terrorism than it was before Sept. 11, Seventy-four percent give a positive rating to the country s performance preventing further attacks, and just over six in 10 also give a positive rating to the United States efforts to break up the al Qaeda terrorist network. In both these, however, few rate the performance as excellent (a word with which people tend to be parsimonious). And fewer, 48 percent, say the country s done a good job winning the cooperation of other countries in fighting terrorism. Women are 11 points less apt than men to say the war has improved security, and much more apt to say the level of casualties is unacceptable (69 percent of women say so, compared with 53 percent of men). Older Americans and blacks also remain much more critical of the war than others, and partisanship is still high 86 percent of Republicans say it was worth fighting; 68 percent of Democrats say not. GROUPS Differences among population groups in views of Bush and his work lay out a sort of demographic blueprint for the election battle ahead. Three in four nonwhites, including 85 percent of blacks, say Bush doesn t understand the problems of average Americans; so do two-thirds of independents and nine in 10 liberal Democrats. At the same time, eight in 10 conservative Republicans say he does understand the public s problems, as do six in 10 evangelical white Protestants. Divisions are similar on Bush s approval rating. Of particular concern to him might be his comparatively low approval rating among retirement-aged Americans 50 percent in this group approve of his work overall since they tend to be among the most reliable voters. In the generic horse race, the Democrat has a 10-point lead over Bush among adults age 65 and over. The generic Democrat runs ahead of Bush by percent among independents, but trails him by percent among white Catholics, two quintessential swing voter

8 groups. Bush does nine points better with men than with women, who are more apt to be Democrats. And there s a wide racial gap among whites, Bush has a 12-point advantage, but he trails by percent among nonwhites, including by percent among blacks. MARRIAGE The question of the government s role in promoting traditional marriage is another of those that shows the cultural fault line running through American politics. (Another, covered in the last ABC/Post poll, is the question of whether a president should rely on his religious beliefs in making policy decisions.) In this case, 56 percent of Americans say it should not be a role of the federal government to promote and encourage traditional marriage; 43 percent say it should. Six in 10 Democrats and independents alike say this should not be a role of government; 52 percent of Republicans say it should. Ideology cuts even more strongly; two-thirds of liberals say this should not be a role of government; nearly six in 10 conservatives say it should. But some of the biggest splits are among religious groups: Six in 10 evangelical white Protestants say promoting traditional marriage should be a role of government; just 35 percent of non-evangelical white Protestants agree, as do four in 10 white Catholics, and just 23 percent of Americans who profess no religion. Interestingly, though, there s no difference among married and unmarried people on the question of whether government should promote traditional marriage. Fifty-six percent in the former group, and 58 percent in the latter, say it should not. METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Jan , 2004, among a random national sample of 1,036 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at: < Media contacts: Cathie Levine, (212) or Lisa Finkel, (212) Results follow. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 1/18/ /21/

9 12/14/ /7/ /16/ /29/ /13/ /30/ /13/ /7/ /11/ /10/ /22/ /30/ /16/ /9/ /3/ /23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4 3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 3/2/ /23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6 2/9/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/02 All /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /17/ /9/ /19/ /21/ /28/ /10/ /27/ /19/ /27/ /6/ /9/ /27/ /13/ /9/ /12/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (ITEM)? 1/18/04 - Summary Table* Approve Disapprove No op. a. The economy b. The situation in Iraq

10 c. Education d. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly e. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance f. The federal budget deficit g. The US campaign against terrorism h. Medicare i. Immigration issues j. Taxes *Half sample asked items a-e, other half asked f-j. Trend where available: a. The economy Approve Disapprove No opinion 1/18/ /21/ /16/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /7/ /11/ /10/ /30/ /9/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /5/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/ /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /21/ /27/ /19/ /6/ /9/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/ b. The situation in Iraq Approve Disapprove No opinion 1/18/ /21/ /14/ /16/ /29/ /13/

11 9/29/ /13/ /7/ /24/ /11/ /10/ /22/ /30/ Compare to: The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein 3/27/ /23/ /20/ /17/ /9/ /23/ /9/ /5/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/ /26/ /14/ /29/ c. Education Approve Disapprove No opinion 1/18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /30/ /15/ /26/ /15/ /27/ /9/ /30/ /3/ /22/ d. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly Approve Disapprove No opinion 1/18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /30/ /1/ e. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance Approve Disapprove No opinion 1/18/

12 12/21/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /30/ /28/ /20/ /15/ f. The federal budget deficit Approve Disapprove No opinion 1/18/ /21/ /29/ Compare to: The federal budget 9/13/ /11/ /30/ /9/ /1/ /20/ /15/ /27/ /9/ /30/ g. The US campaign against terrorism Approve Disapprove No opinion 1/18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /7/ /30/ /9/ /1/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/02 All /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /19/02* /21/02* /10/02* /27/ /19/01* /15/01* *Asked very/somewhat follow-up h. Medicare Approve Disapprove No opinion

13 1/18/ /21/ /1/ i. No trend. j. Taxes Approve Disapprove No opinion 1/18/ /29/ /13/ /11/ /30/ /1/ /20/ /15/ How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 1/18/ * 10/29/ /13/ * Compare to: How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. Likely Voters: 11/6/ * 11/5/ * 11/4/ * 11/3/ * 11/2/ * 11/1/ * 10/31/ * 10/30/ * 10/29/ * 10/28/ * 10/27/ * 10/26/ * 10/25/ /24/ /23/ /22/ /21/ * 10/20/ * 10/19/ * 10/18/ * 10/17/ * Registered Voters: 10/15/ * 10/9/ * 10/1/ * 9/6/ * 8/20/ /10/ * General Population:

14 8/6/ * 7/29/ * 7/23/ * 6/11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ * 2/6/ /16/ * 12/15/ * 10/31/ * 4. If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush, the Republican) or for (the Democratic nominee for president)? Net Leaned Vote: Democratic Other Neither Would No Bush nominee (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 1/18/04 All /21/03 All RV /29/03 All RV /13/03 All RV /13/ /11/ /30/ * What do you think is a bigger problem facing the nation right now: (terrorism) or (the economy)? Terrorism Economy No opin. 1/18/ /29/ /13/ /7/ /26/ /8/ /27/ /16/ Overall, who do you trust to do a better job coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years, (Bush) or (the Democrats in Congress)? Both Neither Bush Democrats (vol.) (vol.) No opinion 1/18/ /30/ /27/02 LV /26/02 LV /26/ /15/ /27/

15 7. Who do you trust to do a better job handling (ITEM), (Bush) or (the Democrats in Congress)? 1/18/04 - Summary Table Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) op. a. The economy b. The U.S. campaign against terrorism c. The situation in Iraq d. Education e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly f. The cost, availability, and coverage of health insurance g. The federal budget deficit h. Medicare i. Immigration issues j. Taxes Trend where available: a. The economy Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 1/18/ /30/ /6/ /9/ /30/ /3/ b. The U.S. campaign against terrorism Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 1/18/ /30/ c. The situation in Iraq Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 1/18/ /30/ d. Education Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 1/18/ /30/ /9/ /30/ /3/ e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 1/18/

16 Compare to: The cost of prescription drugs Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 4/30/ /9/ /30/ Democrats Republicans (vol.) (vol.) op. Likely Voters: 10/27/ /26/ General Population: 9/26/ f. The cost, availability, and coverage of health insurance Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 1/18/ /30/ g i. No trend. j. Taxes Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 1/18/ /30/ Compare to: The issue of tax cuts Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 6/3/ What would you like Bush to talk about most in his State of the Union speech {next week}{this week} - (the war on terrorism), (the economy), or (domestic issues like health care, Social Security and education)? War on Domestic Other All No terrorism Economy issues (vol.) (vol.) opin. 1/18/ /27/ * 9. On another subject, all in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Worth Not worth No fighting fighting opinion 1/18/ /21/ /14/ /16/ /29/

17 10/13/ /13/ /7/ /24/ /11/ /10/ /22/ /30/ Gulf War: 2/2/92* /28/ /2/ /4/ *2/2/92 and previous: "the Persian Gulf war"; 3/4/91: "this war 10. Again thinking about the goals versus the costs of the war, so far in your opinion has there been an acceptable or unacceptable number of U.S. military casualties in Iraq? Acceptable Unacceptable No opinion 1/18/ /21/ /16/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /7/ /11/ /10/ /22/ /9/ /3/ /27/ Do you think the war with Iraq has or has not contributed to the longterm security of the United States? If yes: Has it contributed to the long-term security of the United States a great deal or somewhat? Contributed Has No NET Great deal Somewhat not opin. 1/18/ /21/ /10/03* *"did or did not" 12. How much confidence do you have in the ability of the U.S. government to prevent further terrorist attacks against Americans in this country: a great deal, a good amount, only a fair amount or none at all? Confident Not confident---- No NET Grt.deal Good amt. NET Fair amt. None opin. 1/18/ /7/ /8/ * 7/15/ * 6/9/ * 5/19/ /10/ * 1/27/

18 11/27/ /6/ /11/ /2/ /5/ * 5/14/ /20/ /28/ /3/ * 13. Compared to before September 11, 2001, do you think the country today is safer from terrorism or less safe from terrorism? IF SAFER: Would you say the country is much safer or somewhat safer? Safer Less No diff. No NET Much Somewhat safe (vol.) opin. 1/18/ /7/ For each item I name, please me tell whether you think the United States has done an excellent job on it, a good job, a not-so-good job or a poor job. 1/18/04 - Summary Table -Excellent/Good-- -Not so good/poor-- No NET Exc. Good NET Not so Poor op. a. Preventing further terrorist attacks in the United States b. Breaking up the al Qaeda terrorist network c. Winning the cooperation of other countries in fighting terrorism Trend: a. Preventing further terrorist attacks in the United States --Excellent/Good-- --Not so good/poor-- No NET Exc. Good NET Not so Poor op. 1/18/ /7/ /8/ b. Breaking up the al Qaeda terrorist network --Excellent/Good-- --Not so good/poor-- No NET Exc. Good NET Not so Poor op. 1/18/ /7/ /8/ c. Winning the cooperation of other countries in fighting terrorism --Excellent/Good-- --Not so good/poor-- No NET Exc. Good NET Not so Poor op. 1/18/ /7/ *

19 9/8/ On another subject, would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? ----Excellent/Good Not so good/poor----- No NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op. 1/18/ /21/ /29/ * 9/13/ * 8/11/ * 4/30/ * 2/9/ * 1/20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV * 9/26/ * 7/15/ /21/ * 1/27/ * 9/20/ /9/ * 7/30/ * 4/22/ * 1/15/ /27/00 LV * 10/26/00 LV * 6/11/ * 2/27/ * 10/31/ /2/ /14/ /1/ /1/98 LV * 10/13/ * 16. Just your best guess, would you say the nation's economy is in a recession right now, or not? Is in a recession Is not in a recession No opinion 1/18/ /7/ /12/ Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially? Better Not as The No off well off same opinion 1/18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /30/ George H. W. Bush

20 8/9/ /21/ /4/ /16/ HELD FOR RELEASE. 19. Would you say Bush is doing a better job as president than you expected, a worse job, or what? As expected Better Worse (vol.) No opin. 1/18/ /27/ /30/ /22/ /28/93* *Clinton 20. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Bush or not. He understands the problems of people like you Yes No No opin. 1/18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /30/ /15/ /15/ /27/ /30/ /22/ /4/00 LV /24/00 LV /15/00 RV /9/00 RV /6/00 RV /20/00 RV /23/00 RV /23/ /11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /14/ How do you personally feel about the Bush administration's policies - (enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry)? Positive Negative No NET Enthus. Satis. NET Dissat. Angry op. 1/18/

21 12/21/ On another subject, a program has been proposed to establish a manned base on the moon and eventually send American astronauts to Mars. (Supporters say it would increase scientific knowledge and produce technology that will help people on Earth.) (Opponents say it would cost hundreds of billions of dollars and take money away from other programs.) Considering the cost versus the benefits, would you support or oppose a program to establish a manned base on the moon and eventually send American astronauts to Mars? Support Oppose No opinion 1/18/ HELD FOR RELEASE 26. Do you think it should or should not be a role of the federal government to promote and encourage traditional marriage between a man and a woman? Should Should not No opinion 1/18/ HELD FOR RELEASE ***END***