Democrats, Clinton, Giuliani Hold Strongest Hands

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: CONGRESS/08 ELECTION 12/11/06 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2006 Democrats, Clinton, Giuliani Hold Strongest Hands In the current round of political poker, three players hold strong hands: the Democrats in Congress, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Congressional Democrats get the first play: Most Americans call their takeover of Congress a good thing more than said so when the Republicans took control in 1994 and the Democrats lead George W. Bush in trust to handle a range of issues. Clinton's and Giuliani's turns are farther off. Both hold top spots for their party's 2008 presidential nomination but it still could be anybody's game: Most Americans don't know much yet about the political positions of these or any of the other top competitors. CONGRESS Fifty-five percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll call the change in control of Congress a good thing, more than the 48 percent who said so after control changed in And the public trusts the Democrats over Bush to handle the country s main problems by a 26-point margin, percent. That represents political capital. 70% Change in Control of Congress ABC News/Washington Post polls 60% 50% 55% 48% Now Jan % 30% 27% 28% 20% 17% 20% 10% 0% Good thing Bad thing No difference

2 The Democrats advantage holds across specific issues. They hold a percent lead in trust to handle the public's most pressing concern, Iraq (see 12/12 analysis), a percent advantage in trust to handle the economy, a vast lead on health care (a more traditional Democratic issue), a 14-point advantage on ethics in government and 15 points on immigration policy. The Democrats even lead Bush by percent in trust to handle terrorism, long the cornerstone of his presidency, now much diminished as his support has ebbed as a result of broad discontent with the war in Iraq. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 26% 64% 31% 57% 58% 34% Trust to Handle ABC News/Washington Post poll Bush Democrats 32% 56% 49% 49% 50% 34% 35% 41% 20% 10% 0% Health care Main problems Economy Iraq Immigration Ethics Terrorism A caution for the Democrats is not to overplay their hand. Most Americans say they d like to see both sides Bush and the Democrats alike work mainly to compromise with each other, rather than to pursue their own agendas. Whether Bush and the Democrats comply will tell the tale of the 110th Congress. Expectations are up but still not great. Forty-three percent think the next Congress will be able to accomplish things. Nevertheless, that's more than the 29 percent who said in October that the last Congress got much done. FAVES The incoming Democratic leaders of the 110 th Congress are rated more positively than negatively, though many Americans don't know enough about them to say one way or the other. Forty-six percent say they have a favorable opinion of Speakerelect Nancy Pelosi, 33 percent unfavorable (much better among Democrats, much worse 2

3 among Republicans, naturally). And 36 percent view incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid favorably, 18 percent unfavorably. The rest have no opinion ELECTION More familiar are the current front-runners in the 2008 presidential election and most popular is former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani: Two-thirds of Americans view him positively, including six in 10 Democrats, about two-thirds of independents and nearly eight in 10 Republicans strong appeal across party lines that could prove critical in a general election, should he make it that far. Sen. Clinton follows in popularity, with 56 percent holding a favorable impression of her. At the same time, though, her unfavorable rating 40 percent is the highest on the list, driven by strongly negative views among Republicans. More than seven in 10 Republicans see Clinton unfavorably, including six in 10 "strongly" unfavorable. More than eight in 10 Democrats view her positively, as do half of independents. Sen. John McCain has a percent favorable-unfavorable rating 10 points worse than his favorability rating during the 2000 election. And he's viewed favorably by just 44 percent of independents down nine points since May. Just under half, 49 percent, have a favorable impression of former Senator and vice presidential candidate John Edwards; and 44 percent view Sen. Barack Obama favorably. But there is plenty of room for improvement: One in four Americans don't yet have an opinion of Edwards, while a third don't know enough about Obama to say. Most unfamiliar is Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. A majority of the public 54 percent hasn t formed an opinion of him. The rest split about evenly. Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Giuliani 67% Clinton McCain Edwards Obama Romney DEMOCRATS With strong name recognition and high favorability within her own party, Clinton holds a big early lead for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. Thirty-nine percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they'd vote for her if their state's primary or caucus were held today, far outpacing all other candidates. Obama has 17 percent support, Edwards 12 percent, Gore 10 percent and Kerry seven percent. Other potential candidates are at two percent or less. It's a closer race among liberal Democrats (excluding independent-leaning Democrats), a core Democratic group more likely to turn out for primaries. Obama comes within seven points of Clinton among them, with 26 percent support to Clinton's 33 percent. 3

4 Clinton does far better among women than men 49 percent of Democratic women support her, compared with just 29 percent of Democratic men. Men are about twice as likely as women to support Edwards 17 percent of men do, vs. eight percent of women. 50% '08 Democratic Preference Among leaned Democrats ABC News/Washington Post poll 40% 39% 30% 20% 17% 10% 12% 10% 7% 0% Clinton Obama Edwards Gore Kerry Obama, for his part, receives about equal support from non-whites as whites 19 and 17 percent, respectively. Clinton faces the most competition in the Midwest (Obama represents Illinois): Twentynine percent of Democrats there say they'd vote for her today; 21 percent for Obama. Clinton is supported by about four in 10 Democrats in other regions. And while she has strong leads among less-educated Democrats, those with college degrees split evenly between Clinton and Obama. REPUBLICANS The Republican race is closer. Giuliani holds the edge for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, backed by 34 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. McCain is close behind, with 26 percent support. Newt Gingrich places third, with 12 percent, and Romney fourth, with five percent. Other potential candidates receive three percent support or less. There has been speculation that Giuliani is too liberal to get through the Republican primaries. Perhaps surprisingly then, this poll finds 34 percent of conservative Republicans supporting him, while 25 percent back McCain essentially the same as 4

5 among all Republicans. However, it's a closer contest among conservative evangelical white Protestants. Thirty percent of them support McCain, 27 percent Giuliani. Given this survey's sample size, Giuliani's overall percent advantage over McCain is not statistically significant at the customary 95 percent confidence level. However, there is an 89 percent probability that Giuliani is ahead among this population all leaned Republicans, not all of whom, of course, will vote. 50% '08 Republican Preference Among leaned Republicans ABC News/Washington Post poll 40% 34% 30% 26% 20% 12% 10% 5% 0% Giuliani McCain Gingrich Roney SECOND CHOICE With more than a year to go before the primaries begin, much can happen; some potential candidates may not run, or may drop out. Second choices then matter. Clinton gets the bulk of support from her opponents' initial supporters: Among those who backed one of the other 10 candidates tested in this poll, nearly four in 10 prefer Clinton as an alternative. If Clinton does not run, no one candidate benefits most her supporters split between Gore, Kerry and Obama. On the Republican side, Giuliani and McCain again hold the top spots for second choice, with the bulk of Giuliani supporters backing McCain for second choice, and most McCain supporters opting for Giuliani. POSITIONS But the positions of the potential candidates are little known to the public, underscoring the potential for change as the election draws closer, attention rises and the candidates more fully flesh out their agendas. 5

6 Best known is Hillary Clinton 45 percent say they know at least a good amount about her positions on specific issues, including half of Democrats. But still, most 55 percent say they know little or nothing about her positions, and very few know a "great deal." Just 30 percent know a good amount about McCain's positions, 25 percent about Giuliani's and 20 percent about Edwards' or Obama's positions. A mere six percent know a good amount about Romney. It's not much higher in their own parties. About four in 10 Republicans know about McCain's or Giuliani's positions, about one in four Democrats know about Edwards' or Obama's, and just one in 10 Republicans know where Romney stands on the issues. ATTRIBUTES But Romney, a Mormon, faces deeper difficulties: More than a third of Americans overall, and 39 percent of Republicans, say they're less likely to vote for a candidate for president who s a Mormon. Far fewer say they're less likely to vote for a woman 14 percent, about as many who say they re more likely to vote for one. Twenty-three percent of women say they're more likely to vote for another woman, compared with nine percent of men. Perhaps with Clinton in mind, 38 percent of Democratic women say they'd be more likely to vote for a woman candidate, while 25 percent of Republican women say they'd be less apt to. Conservative Republicans are the most likely to say they'd be less apt to vote for a woman for president 32 percent say so. Again, Clinton is probably the reason. Just seven percent say they'd be less likely to support a black candidate, nine percent more likely; 84 percent say the candidate s race wouldn't matter. METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec.7-11, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,005 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Dalia Sussman. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) Full results follow (*= less than 0.5 percent) Previously released. 5. Overall, who do you trust to do a better job coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years, (Bush) or (the Democrats in Congress)? Both Neither 6

7 Bush Democrats (vol.) (vol.) No opinion 12/11/ /18/ /30/ /27/02 LV /26/02 LV /26/ /15/ /27/ Compare to: Who do you trust to do a better job coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next year - Clinton or the Republicans in Congress? Both Neither No Clinton Republicans (vol.) (vol.) opin. 1/26/ * 7 2 2/14/99* /12/ /19/ /7/ /28/ /21/ /12/ /12/ /31/ /19/ /9/ /15/97** /29/ /4/ /15/ *1999 and previous: "next few years" ** "The Clinton administration" 6. Who do you trust to do a better job handling (ITEM), (Bush) or (the Democrats in Congress)? 12/11/06 - Summary Table* Both Neither No Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) op. a. The situation in Iraq b. The economy c. The U.S. campaign against terrorism d. Health care e. Immigration issues f. Ethics in government *Full sample asked item a, half sample asked b-d, other half asked e-f. Trend where available: a. The situation in Iraq Both Neither No Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 12/11/ /18/ /30/ b. The economy 7

8 Both Neither No Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 12/11/ /18/ /30/ /6/ /9/ /30/ /3/ c. The U.S. campaign against terrorism Both Neither No Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 12/11/ /18/ /30/ d. Health care Both Neither No Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 12/11/ Compare to: The cost, availability, and coverage of health insurance Both Neither No Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 1/18/ /30/ e. Immigration issues Both Neither No Bush Dems (vol.) (vol.) opin. 12/11/ /18/ f. No trend. 7. As you may know, control of Congress will switch from the Republicans to the Democrats next month. Do you think that's a good thing, a bad thing, or doesn't it make any difference? Good thing Bad thing No difference No opinion 12/11/ /22/06* /4/95** /31/94* /23/94* *Conditional (pre-election): "If control of Congress switched" **"Control of Congress has switched from the Democrats to the Republicans" 8. (HALF SAMPLE) With control of Congress, do you think the Democrats should work mainly to (carry out their agenda), or should work mainly to (compromise with Bush and the Republicans)? Carry out Compromise with No their agenda Bush/Republicans opinion 12/11/

9 Compare to: With control of Congress and the presidency, do you think the Republicans should work mainly to (carry out their agenda), or should work mainly to (compromise with the Democrats)? Carry out Compromise with No their agenda the Democrats opinion 12/15/ (HALF SAMPLE) With the Democrats in control of Congress, do you think Bush should work mainly to (carry out his agenda), or should work mainly to (compromise with the Democrats)? Carry out Compromise with No his agenda Democrats opinion 12/11/ Overall, how much do you think Congress will be able to accomplish in the next year: a great deal, a good amount, not too much, or nothing at all? - Great deal/good amount Not much/nothing --- No NET Grt. deal Good amt. NET Not too Nothing opin. 12/11/ Compare to: Overall, how much do you think Congress has accomplished in the past year: a great deal, a good amount, not too much, or nothing at all? - Great deal/good amount Not much/nothing --- No NET Grt. deal Good amt. NET Not too Nothing opin. 10/8/ /31/ /23/ /11/ * 6/26/94* *"in the past 18 months" Previously released Held for release. 37. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (NAME)? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 12/11/06 - Summary Table* Favorable Unfavorable No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin. a. Hillary Clinton b. John McCain c. Harry Reid d. John Edwards e. Barack Obama f. Rudy Giuliani g. Nancy Pelosi h. Mitt Romney *Half sample asked items a-d, other half asked e-h. Trend: a. Hillary Clinton 9

10 Favorable Unfavorable No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 12/11/ /15/ /5/ /5/05 51 NA NA 46 NA NA 3 6/1/ /2/99 49 NA NA 44 NA NA 7 6/6/ /14/ /14/ /1/ /21/ /19/ /4/ /30/ /19/ /9/ /4/96 RV /30/ /21/ /19/ /31/ /15/ /27/ /23/ /14/ /8/ /26/ /23/ /17/ /8/ /28/ b. John McCain Favorable Unfavorable No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 12/11/ /15/ /5/ /5/05 57 NA NA 32 NA NA 11 7/30/ /27/ /31/ /2/ /14/ c. No trend. d. John Edwards Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 12/11/ /3/04* LV /8/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV *10/3/03 and previous: "Regardless of how you might vote, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of John Edwards or perhaps you don't know enough to say." e-h. No trend. 10

11 Previously released Held for release. 44. I'm going to read a few attributes that might be found in a candidate for president. Please tell me if each would make you (more likely) to vote for that candidate for president, or (less likely) to vote for that candidate, or if it wouldn't matter. First is (ITEM). How about (NEXT ITEM)? 12/11/06 Summary Table More likely Less likely Wouldn t matter No op. a. someone who is a woman * b. someone who is black * c. someone who is a Mormon Trend: a. someone who is a woman More likely Less likely Wouldn t matter No op. 12/11/ * 5/8/88* *AP b. someone who is black More likely Less likely Wouldn t matter No op. 12/11/ * 5/8/88* *AP c. No trend. 45. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore, Wesley Clark, Tom Vilsack, Evan Bayh, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, or Chris Dodd), for whom would you vote? NET LEANED VOTE: 12/11/06 Hillary Clinton 39 John Edwards 12 Barack Obama 17 John Kerry 7 Al Gore 10 Wesley Clark 1 Tom Vilsack 1 Evan Bayh 1 Bill Richardson 2 Joe Biden 2 Chris Dodd * Other (vol.) * None of these (vol.) 2 Would not vote (vol.) 1 No opinion (LEANED DEMOCRATS, NAMED A CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be? 11

12 NET LEANED VOTE: 12/11/06 Hillary Clinton 22 John Edwards 11 Barack Obama 18 John Kerry 13 Al Gore 20 Wesley Clark 3 Tom Vilsack * Evan Bayh 1 Bill Richardson 3 Joe Biden 1 Chris Dodd 1 Other (vol.) 1 None of these (vol.) 2 Would not vote (vol.) * No opinion 3 First choice/second choice NET 12/11/06 Hillary Clinton 60 John Edwards 22 Barack Obama 33 John Kerry 20 Al Gore 29 Wesley Clark 4 Tom Vilsack 1 Evan Bayh 2 Bill Richardson 4 Joe Biden 3 Chris Dodd 1 Other (vol.) 1 None of these (vol.) 4 Would not vote (vol.) 1 No opinion (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel, Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, George Pataki, Sam Brownback, or Tom Tancredo), for whom would you vote? NET LEANED VOTE: 12/11/06 Rudy Giuliani 34 John McCain 26 Mitt Romney 5 Newt Gingrich 12 Chuck Hagel * Tommy Thompson 2 Mike Huckabee * Duncan Hunter 1 George Pataki 3 Sam Brownback 1 Tom Tancredo * Other (vol.) * None of these (vol.) 6 12

13 Would not vote (vol.) * No opinion (LEANED REPUBLICANS, NAMED A CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be? NET LEANED VOTE: 12/11/06 Rudy Giuliani 28 John McCain 24 Mitt Romney 5 Newt Gingrich 13 Chuck Hagel 1 Tommy Thompson 3 Mike Huckabee 3 Duncan Hunter 1 George Pataki 6 Sam Brownback 1 Tom Tancredo 1 Other (vol.) 1 None of these (vol.) 5 Would not vote (vol.) * No opinion 8 First choice/second choice NET 12/11/06 Rudy Giuliani 57 John McCain 47 Mitt Romney 9 Newt Gingrich 22 Chuck Hagel 1 Tommy Thompson 5 Mike Huckabee 2 Duncan Hunter 1 George Pataki 8 Sam Brownback 2 Tom Tancredo 1 Other (vol.) 1 None of these (vol.) 11 Would not vote (vol.) * No opinion How much do you feel you know about (ITEM) positions on specific issues - a great deal, a good amount, only some, or little or none? 12/11/06 Summary Table* -Grt deal/good amount- --Some/Little-none- No NET Great Good amt NET Some Little op. a. John McCain s b. Hillary Clinton s * c. John Edwards d. Rudy Giuliani s e. Barack Obama s f. Mitt Romney s *Half sample asked items a-c, other half asked items d-f. Trend where available: 13

14 a. John McCain s -Great deal/good amount- -Only some/little-none- No NET Great Good amt NET Some Little opin. 12/11/ /24/ /31/ b-f. No trend. ***END*** 14