People to Congress: Walk This Way

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: Congress Issues - 9/2/99 EMBARGOED FOR USE AFTER 6:30 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 9, 1999 People to Congress: Walk This Way As Congress resumes the people s business, its members might note what the people think that business is: Protecting patients rights and preserving Social Security are high on the list. But cutting taxes, gun control or increasing military spending far lower. Nearly eight in 10 Americans in an ABC News/Washington Post poll identify patients rights legislation and Medicare and Social Security fixes as some of their top priorities for Congressional action. But that falls to 55 percent for gun control, 53 percent for cutting taxes and fewer for reforming campaign finance laws or military spending. Given these priorities, whose plans are preferred? The Democrats in Congress lead strongly in public trust to handle the top three issues; the Republicans, by contrast, lead strongly only in the lowest-priority item, military spending. High Trust to handle it: Priorities for Congress: importance Dems. Reps. Protecting Social Security 82% Protecting Medicare Protecting patients rights Tougher gun control Cutting taxes Campaign finance reform Increasing military spending The Democrats advantage on the top issues helps them to an edge in trust more generally, but not a strong one. Asked which party they trust to cope with the nation s main problems, 45 percent pick the Democrats, 39 percent the Republicans. That s about where it s been the last few years, after brief Republican parity at the time of the 1994 elections, when the GOP took control of Congress. TAXES Taxes specifically look to be a hot issue this fall, given the Republicans approval of a $792 billion tax cut and Bill Clinton s promise to veto it. While many people wouldn t mind a tax cut, several questions in this poll underscore the comparatively low priority it receives. Given a choice of using the federal surplus to cut taxes, reduce the debt, strengthen Social Security or increase spending on other domestic programs, only 20 percent give top priority to a tax cut about where it s been for a year and a half. And when you identify

2 popular domestic programs that could be boosted, priority for a tax cut slips lower still (though the biggest slide is in Social Security). WASTE NOT - The result of this test reinforces the notion that it s not government spending that s unpopular, it s government waste. Ask about unspecified spending on domestic programs and just 13 percent give it priority. Make it spending on domestic programs such as education or health care and support nearly triples, to 37 percent. Cut Reduce Strengthen Spend more on taxes the debt Social Security domestic programs" 20% Cut Reduce Strengthen Spend more on taxes the debt Social Security education/health care There are other reasons a tax cut gets comparatively low priority: ABC News polls last month found that most people think the projected surplus is unrealistic, and that many think the GOP tax cut would primarily benefit the rich. VETO? Still, whatever their priorities, it s hard for many people to turn down free cash. Asked what Clinton should do with the Republican tax cut now that it s headed to his desk, 50 percent favor a veto, while 43 percent say he should let it become law. That's a closer division than the lack of priority for a tax cut would suggest. Another result also shows that Clinton doesn't have free reign to call the shots on the federal surplus: The public divides on whom they trust more to decide what to do with the surplus, 45 percent choosing Clinton, 46 percent the Republicans. At the same time, Clinton continues to outscore the sometimes fractious Congress in job approval, as is usually the case. Fifty-eight percent of Americans approve of Clinton's work in office; Congress gets an approval rating of 46 percent, with 47 percent disapproving. Approval is higher (55 percent) among Republicans, whose party controls Congress; lower (46 percent) among Democrats, and lowest (41 percent) among independents. HORSE RACE There s plenty of time for these issues to sort themselves out before November What s most noteworthy about recent congressional elections is the fact that, after decades of Democratic dominance, the Republicans have maintained parity in the national House vote in the last three elections, 1994, 1996 and More of the same is possible. In this poll 48 percent of registered voters say they d support the Democrat running in their House district, 44 percent the Republican a close split, especially since Republican voters are usually more likely to turn out. If that holds, it suggests a close contest for control of the House.

3 METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1999, among a random national sample of 1,526 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is doing its job? Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/2/ /6/ /14/ /14/ /20/ /19/ /13/ Call for trend to Overall, which party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years? Both equally Neither No 9/2/ /6/ /14/ /14/ /18/ /18/98 LV /28/ /28/98 LV /21/ /12/ /31/ /19/ /8/ /15/96 RV /5/ /30/ /22/ /6/94 RV /31/ /23/ /11/ /26/ /27/ /14/ /17/ /8/ /7/ /11/ /8/ /2/ /15/ /21/

4 11. I'd like to ask you what kind of attention some issues should get in Congress. For each one, please tell me how important it is for Congress to address. Would you say it's one of the single most important issues, very important, somewhat important or not important at all. First is.. (Read item) Don't do No Most Very Smwht. Not (vol.) opin. a. Enacting tougher gun control laws b. Reforming election campaign finance laws * 2 c. Protecting patients' rights in the health care system * * d. Cutting taxes * 1 e. Protecting the Social Security system * * f. Protecting the Medicare system * 0 g. Increasing spending on national defense, or the military budget * And which political party, the Democrats or the Republicans, do you trust to do a better job: Summary table: a. Handling the issue of gun control b. Reforming election campaign finance laws c. Protecting patients' rights in the health care system d. Cutting taxes e. Protecting the Social Security system f. Protecting the Medicare system g. Handling national defense and the military budget Trend (where available): a. Handling the issue of gun control 9/2/ /16/ c. Protecting patients' rights in the health care system 9/2/ /14/ /28/ NA NA 10 9/28/98 LV NA NA 10 7/12/ d. Cutting taxes

5 9/2/ /30/ COMPARE TO: Holding taxes down 3/14/ /28/ NA NA 9 9/28/98 LV NA NA 8 7/12/ /19/ /8/ /23/ /11/ /27/ /2/ /15/ /4/ /16/ e. Protecting the Social Security system 9/2/ /14/ /12/ /19/ /16/ COMPARE TO: Protecting Social Security and Medicare 9/28/ NA NA 19 9/28/98 LV NA NA 8 f. Protecting the Medicare system 9/2/ /14/ /12/ /19/ /11/ Who would you trust more to decide what to do with the federal budget surplus - Clinton or the Republicans in Congress? Both equally Neither No Clinton Republicans (vol.) (vol.) opin. 9/2/ /14/ /31/98* /19/98* *"If there is surplus money in the federal budget in the next year or so" 16. (Half samples) Which of these do you think should be the top priority for any surplus money in the federal budget - cut federal income taxes, put it toward reducing the national debt, strengthen the Social Security system, or

6 increase spending on other domestic programs? (Version B: or increase spending on other domestic programs such as education or health care?) Version A Cut taxes Reduce debt Soc. Sec. Dom. Progs. No opin. 9/2/ /25/ /14/ /31/ /19/ Version B Cut taxes Reduce debt Soc. Sec. Educ./Health No opin. 9/2/ As you may know, the Republicans in Congress have called for a 800 billion dollar tax cut over the next 10 years. They say their tax cut will return most of the projected budget surplus to the people. Clinton favors a smaller tax cut, saying most of the surplus should be used to strengthen the Social Security and Medicare programs. Do you think Clinton should veto the Republican tax cut, or let it become law? Veto Let it become law No opinion 9/2/ (and 28) On another subject, thinking about the U.S. House of Representatives election in November, 2000 in the congressional district where you live, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote: (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate)? Registered voters: Net leaned vote: Neither Wouldn't Democrat Republican (vol.) vote (vol.) No opin. 9/9/ * 5 3/14/ /14/ /30/ /1/ * 2 Call for trend to 1981.