Better Job Rating, Advantage on Debt Limit Mark the Start of Obama s Second Term

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: Obama s Second Term EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 7 a.m. Wednesday, Jan. 16, 2013 Better Job Rating, Advantage on Debt Limit Mark the Start of Obama s Second Term Barack Obama approaches his second term with his highest job approval rating since his first year in office (save for a brief bin Laden bounce) and a clear upper hand over the deeply unpopular Congress including majority support for his demand to decouple talks on the debt ceiling and budget cuts. With another showdown on the nation s borrowing limit looming, 58 percent of Americans in this ABC News/Washington Post poll say the debt ceiling should be handled separately from the debate on spending cuts. Thirty-six percent instead favor linking the two, as the Republicans in Congress seek a position that drew a tart response from the president Monday. If it comes to a standoff, moreover, just 22 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, indicate they re willing to have the federal government default on its debt obligations or partially shut down if budget cuts can t be agreed. And the president leads the GOP leadership in trust to handle the issue by a 14-point margin.

2 The results are perhaps unhelpful to House Speaker John Boehner, who said Monday, The American people do not support raising the debt ceiling without reducing government spending at the same time. That followed Obama s comment that failing to lift the debt limit would be irresponsible and absurd ; he called the linkage to budget cuts a ransom. TERM 2 Obama, more generally, is in comparatively fine fettle, particularly given the public s still-unresolved economic concerns. Fifty-five percent approve of his job performance overall, the most since November 2009, save for a blip at 56 percent immediately after Navy SEALS killed Osama bin Laden in spring The president s rating compares with 19 percent approval for Congress matching its lowest at or near the start of a new session in polls by ABC and the Post, or Gallup, since (It was the same as now in 2009.) The Democrats in Congress get a 37 percent approval rating; the Republicans, a dreary 24 percent. Obama s premium in approval over the Democrats in Congress is about his usual (18 points now vs. an average of 16 points), but he s got a stronger hand than usual against the Republicans a 31-point approval advantage now, compared within 25 points on average since he took office. 2

3 Still, Obama s rating suffers from extreme partisanship: Ninety percent of Democrats approve of his job performance overall; a mere 17 percent of Republicans approve, with independents, at 54 percent approval, tipping the scale. The current 73-point Democratic-Republican gap in Obama s approval rating is close to the average in his presidency to date, 68 percent higher than for any of his four predecessors in ABC/Post data. Average presidential approval by party ID Dems Reps Inds Abs. avg. D-R diff Obama 84% points G.W. Bush Clinton G.H.W. Bush Reagan In any case, overall, 61 percent of Americans rate Obama as a strong leader, the most in nearly three years; 55 percent say he understands the problems of average Americans, the most in two years (and a key to his successful re-election campaign); and 53 percent say they re optimistic about the policies he ll pursue in the next four years. That latter shows the comedown a second-termer can expect; in a similar question when Obama first took office, far more, 68 percent, expressed optimism about the policies he d pursue. That s 15 points lower now but, all the same, very similar to the 51 percent optimism that greeted George W. Bush at the start of his own second term. 3

4 Further and potentially a key card in negotiations ahead the president is far less likely than his Republican counterparts to be seen as insufficiently willing to compromise on important issues. While 48 percent say Obama is doing too little to give ground in negotiations, many more, 67 percent, say that about the Republican leadership. BUT STILL That s not to say all s perfect for the president by any means. Fifty percent approve of his handling the economy, matching last month at a level not exceeded since November But it s a tepid score all the same and more strongly disapprove than strongly approve, by a 13-point margin. That negative intensity, marking continued economic discontent, could trip up Obama in the months ahead. Further underscoring the president s risks, most Americans, 57 percent, continue to say the country is headed pretty seriously off on the wrong track down from 69 percent as recently as last August, and from 77 percent in fall 2011, but still a negative reading, and thus a hazardous one. Indeed, among people who say the country s headed in the right direction, 95 percent approve of the president s job performance; among those who say it s on the wrong track, that dives to 27 percent. Another comparison provides some context: Marked against previous postwar presidents at the start of their second term, Obama s approval rating is numerically better than just two Richard Nixon in 1973 (51 percent) and George W. Bush in 2005 (52 percent). Harry S. Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton all were better off. 4

5 Presidential Approval Start of Second Term Approve Disapprove Year Obama 55% G.W. Bush Clinton Reagan Nixon* Eisenhower Truman *1973 and previous, Gallup There are, of course extenuating circumstances; Obama s had the misfortune to preside over the longest and deepest economic downturn since the great depression, taking him from a high of 69 percent approval in April 2009 to a record-low 42 percent 15 months ago. He s been inching back as the economy s weakly recovered, and his rating now is a scant 3 points better than his career average 52 percent in ABC/Post polls since he s taken office. GROUPS The partisan differences in the president s rating, while striking, are reflected in differences among other groups as well. Obama s approval rating is 41 points higher among nonwhites (85 percent) than whites (44 percent). It s 42 points higher among the non-religious compared with evangelical white Protestants. And the gap is 53 points between liberals (82 percent of whom approve of the president s work) and conservatives (29 percent). While other gaps aren t as vast, the president s rating is 17 points higher in urban areas than in the suburbs, and 27 points higher in cities than in rural areas; 20 points higher among adults younger than 40 than among those 40 and up; 15 points higher among adults with post-graduate degrees than among those who started but haven t finished college; higher in the Northeast than in the Midwest (by 15 points) or the South (by 12 points); 12 points higher among lower- to middle-income adults than among the better-off financially; 12 points higher in 2012 blue states than in the red ones; and 10 points higher among women than men. Many of these groups, of course, are themselves differentiated by partisan and ideological preferences, and those unquestionably are the driving forces in assessments of the president s performance. The question, in this so heavily partisan age, is how much room is left for him to win and hold allegiance in the four years ahead. METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Jan , 2013, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including landline and cellphone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including design effect. Partisan divisions are percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y. Analysis by Gary Langer. 5

6 ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at Media contacts: David Ford, (212) , and Julie Townsend, (212) Full results follow. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 1/13/ /16/ /4/12 RV /3/12 RV /2/12 RV /1/12 RV /31/12 RV /30/12 RV /29/12 RV /28/12 RV /27/12 RV /26/12 RV /25/12 RV /24/12 RV /23/12 RV /22/12 RV /21/12 RV /13/ /29/ /9/ /25/ /8/ /20/ /8/ /10/ /4/ /15/ /18/ /3/ /2/ /1/ /9/11* /17/ /5/ /2/11** /17/ /13/ /16/ /12/ /28/ /3/ /2/ /11/ /6/ /25/ /26/ /8/ /15/

7 12/13/ /15/ /18/ /12/ /17/ /18/ /21/ /24/ /29/ /22/ *Washington Post **Washington Post/Pew Research Center 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 1/13/ /16/ /13/12 RV /29/12 RV /9/12 RV /25/ /8/ /20/ /8/ /10/ /4/ /15/ /18/ /3/ /2/ /1/ /17/ /5/ /2/11* /17/ /13/ /16/ /12/ /28/10 RV /3/ /2/ /11/ /6/ /25/ /26/ /8/ /15/ /13/ /15/ /18/ /12/ /17/ /18/ /21/ /24/ /29/ /22/09 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6 *Washington Post/Pew Research Center 7

8 3 held for release. 4. Do you think things in this country (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)? Right Wrong No direction track opinion 1/13/ /31/12 LV /13/12 RV /29/12 RV /25/12 RV /8/ /8/ /15/ /3/ /1/ /5/ /16/ /12/ /28/10 RV /6/ /26/ /15/ /15/ /18/ /17/ /21/ /24/ /29/ /22/ /16/ /14/ /25/08 LV /11/08 RV /22/08 RV /22/ /15/ /11/ /12/ /1/ /1/ /19/ /4/06 RV /22/ /8/ /15/ /2/ /24/04 LV /18/ Call for full trend. 5. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel (optimistic) or (pessimistic) about the policies Obama will pursue in his second term in office? Optimistic Pessimistic ---- No NET Very Somewhat NET Somewhat Very opinion 1/13/ /16/ /14/08* 68 NA NA 26 NA NA 6 8

9 * "the policies Obama will pursue" Compare to Bush: Optimistic Pessimistic No opinion 12/11/ /15/ /18/ /19/04* * "... in his second term in office" 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is doing its job? Do you approve/disapprove strongly, or somewhat? Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 1/13/ /15/ /2/ /13/ /16/ /28/10 RV /3/ /2/ /6/ /26/ /8/10 26 NA NA 71 NA NA 3 7/13/ /1/ /9/ /1/ /30/ /21/ /1/07 39 " " 53 " " 8 4/15/ /25/07 41 NA NA 54 NA NA 5 1/19/ /11/06 37 " " 57 " " 6 11/4/06 RV /22/ /8/ /7/06 40 NA NA 55 NA NA 5 8/6/ /15/ /9/ /5/ /26/ /8/ /18/ /2/ /28/ /5/ /29/ /30/ /26/ /15/ /21/ /27/ /19/ /9/ /30/ /22/

10 10/31/ /2/ /6/ /14/ /14/ /20/ /19/ /13/ /7/ /1/ /25/ /18/ /28/ /21/ /12/ /12/ /4/ /31/ /30/ /25/ /24/ /19/ /13/ /27/ /8/ /24/ /9/ /15/ /5/ /30/ /22/ /10/ /7/ /19/ /1/ /17/ /5/ /19/ /29/ /31/ /23/ /11/ /26/ /27/ /27/ /23/ /14/ /8/ /26/ /17/ /7/ /9/ /18/ /8/ /2/ /15/ /21/ /2/ /14/ /4/ /16/ /21/ /23/

11 2/14/ /23/ /1/ /22/ /83* / / / / / /74 48 " " 35 " " 17 *5/83 and previous: Gallup 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way [ITEM] are doing their job? 1/13/13 - Summary Table Approve Disapprove No opinion a. The Democrats in Congress b. The Republicans in Congress Trend: a. The Democrats in Congress Approve Disapprove No opinion 1/13/ /16/ /10/ /15/ /18/ /17/ /3/ /18/ /24/ /22/ /13/ /1/ /9/ /1/ /30/ /21/ /1/ /15/ /8/ /15/ /2/ /5/ /6/ /14/ /8/ /5/ /31/ /23/ /11/ b. The Republicans in Congress Approve Disapprove No opinion 1/13/ /16/ /10/

12 1/15/ /18/ /1/ /17/ /3/ /18/ /24/ /22/ /13/ /1/ /9/ /1/ /30/ /21/ /1/ /15/ /8/ /15/ /2/ /5/ /6/ /14/ /8/ /15/96 RV /30/ /5/ /31/ /23/ /11/ Do you think Obama is doing too (much), too (little) or about the right amount to compromise with the Republican leaders in Congress on important issues? About the No Too much Too little right amount opinion 1/13/ /17/ /12/ /8/ Do you think the Republican leaders in Congress are doing too (much), too (little) or about the right amount to compromise with Obama on important issues? About the No Too much Too little right amount opinion 1/13/ /12/ /8/ previously released. 11. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Obama, or not: [ITEM]? 1/13/13 - Summary Table Yes No No opinion a. He understands the problems of people like you b. He is a strong leader

13 Trend: a. He understands the problems of people like you Yes No No opinion 1/13/ /15/ /3/ /5/ /16/ /2/ /6/ /26/ /15/ /18/ /24/ /16/ b. He is a strong leader Yes No No opinion 1/13/ /15/ /3/ /5/ /6/ /26/ /15/ /18/ /24/ /16/ If Congress does not raise its borrowing limit in February, the federal government will have to default on its loans and/or shut down some of its operations. Some people say the borrowing limit should be raised only if spending cuts also are put in place. Others say the two issues should be kept separate. Do you think raising the borrowing limit should be tied to spending cuts, or should these be kept as separate issues? Should be tied Should be kept No to spending cuts as separate issues opinion 1/13/ (IF TIED TO SPENDING CUTS) If Congress and the Obama administration do not agree on spending cuts, should the borrowing limit be raised anyway or should the government default on its loans and/or shut down some of its operations? Government should Borrowing limit default and/or shut No should be raised some operations opinion 1/13/ /13 NET: Borrowing limit should be tied to spending cuts Should be Raise borrowing Let default on No opinion if kept as limit if no loans and/or shut no agreement on separate No NET agreement down some operations spending cuts issues op. 1/13/

14 14. Who do you trust more to handle this issue - (Obama) or (the Republicans in Congress)? Obama Republicans ---- Both Neither No NET Strngly Smwht NET Smwht Strngly (vol.) (vol.) opinion 1/13/ /17/11* * reducing the federal budget deficit and increasing the government s debt limit previously released. *** END *** 14