At the Opening of his Convention, the Currents Shift Toward Bush

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: GOP CONVENTION OPENER 8/29/04 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Monday, Aug. 30, 2004 At the Opening of his Convention, the Currents Shift Toward Bush The ice in the river is thick, but the currents have moved in George W. Bush s direction. On the eve of his nominating convention Bush has erased most of John Kerry s gains on issues and attributes alike, retaking a sizable lead in trust to handle terrorism, moving ahead on Iraq and battling Kerry to parity on the economy the three top issues of the 2004 campaign. Bush also has reclaimed an advantage as more honest and trustworthy, bolstered his rating for strong leadership and moved to a 10-point lead as better qualified to serve as commander-in-chief, reversing Kerry s edge in the latter after his convention late last month. 80% 70% Strong Enthusiasm for the Candidates Among Bush/Kerry Supporters ABC News/Washington Post polls 60% 50% Bush 50% 49% 56% 53% 56% 40% 41% 40% Kerry 34% 30% Pre-Dem Post-Dem Pre-GOP Convention Convention Convention 20% 10% 0% 20-Jun 25-Jul 1-Aug Now The race between the two remains essentially unchanged dead even among likely voters, at percent. But the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll shows clear deflation for Kerry across a range of measures: Strong enthusiasm for his candidacy has dropped by 16 points (almost precisely what it gained after Boston) while Bush s has

2 held steady. And Kerry s personal favorability rating has lost eight points to a new low, while Bush has chipped five points off the number of Americans who see him unfavorably. This doesn t suddenly make Bush a popular president: His overall job approval rating is 52 percent among registered voters, with less than 50 percent approval for his work on Iraq, the economy, taxes and health care. Fifty-four percent are dissatisfied with the nation s direction, 46 percent think most Americans have gotten worse off financially under his presidency, and the public divides evenly on whether he s done more to unite or divide the country. But politics is comparative, and on many fronts Bush is looking better against Kerry than he did a month ago. Though the swift boat controversy is a convenient foil and can t have helped Kerry the shift looks to represent broader assessments. Kerry s lost ground on unrelated items ranging from a vision for the future to trust to handle health care and education. And his losses have occurred as much among non-veterans as among military vets. Instead the biggest changes have occurred among groups including women; voters at both ends of the age spectrum (the youngest and seniors); and those in the so-called battleground states, where the campaigns have advertised most heavily. In those states the Bush-Kerry race stands at percent among likely voters; elsewhere, % Bush Kerry 50% 46% 49% 47% 48%- 48% 50% 40% The 2004 Election Among Likely Voters ABC News/Washington Post polls 30% 20% 10% Nader 2% 25-Jul 2% 1-Aug 1% 29-Aug 0% While the race among likely voters overall is essentially unchanged (up a point for Bush and down a point for Kerry since Aug. 1), there s been a bit more movement among all registered voters, with Bush +4 and Kerry -3; they now stand percent among

3 registereds, compared with percent (Bush-Kerry) after the Democratic convention. In all measures, Ralph Nader has just one or two percent support. THE ACTION But the real action this year is beneath the surface an unusual feature of this election that probably owes much to the public s high levels of partisanship, early commitment and strong support. While the overall horse race holds essentially steady, the issue and character judgments underlying it show ongoing reassessment. Where they come out and to what extent they inform final decisions will tell the story Nov. 2. The public clearly is focused: Forty-three percent of registered voters are closely following the race, 15 points more than at this time in Moveable voters those who say there s any chance they may change their minds make up just 18 percent, down from 26 percent in June. And only about a third of these say there s a good chance they ll change their minds; most say it s unlikely. 60% Trust Bush on the Issues ABC News/Washington Post polls 55% 55% 56% 50% 45% 49% 48% 45% 43% 51% 47% 44% 52% 47% 44% 48% 46% 52% 48% 47% Iraq Terrorism Economy Education 40% 40% 41% 39% 35% Pre-Dem Post-Dem Pre-GOP Convention Convention Convention 30% 20-Jun 11-Jul 25-Jul 1-Aug Now ISSUES The economy has pulled farther ahead of its closest competitors as the leading factor in this election; 31 percent say it s the most important issue in their vote, while 19 percent apiece pick Iraq or terrorism. Health care s fairly close behind, at 12 percent. But the economy is less threatening to Bush than it s been: Today registered voters divide evenly on whom they trust more to handle it percent Bush-Kerry, as opposed to a percent Kerry lead on Aug. 1. Bush, meanwhile, now leads Kerry by percent in trust to handle Iraq, and by percent on terrorism.

4 It s similar on other issues: On education, Kerry led by 13 points after his convention; now they re even. On taxes Kerry had led by six; now they re essentially even (a scant Bush +2). And on health care Kerry had led by 19 points; now he leads by seven. Trust more Now 8/1 Bush to handle: Bush Kerry Bush Kerry change Terrorism 56% Education Economy Health care Iraq Taxes This poll tested four additional issues. Registered voters trust Kerry by 13 points, percent, to handle prescription drug benefits for the elderly; that s a meaningful weakness for Bush on an issue he s tried to claim through the new (but poorly received) Medicare benefit. Registered voters also prefer Kerry by nine points on helping the middle class, about the same as Al Gore s lead on this issue in the closing days of the 2000 campaign. Kerry also leads Bush, by percent, in trust to handle stem-cell research. But Bush comes back with a 12-point lead, percent, in trust to handle the issue of same-sex marriage. WAR and TERRORISM While the public remains divided on the war in Iraq half say it wasn t worth fighting two factors mitigate the damage to Bush. One is that 57 percent of registered voters reject the notion that the administration intentionally misled the public as it made the case for war. The other is that 54 percent believe the war did contribute to the long-term security of the United States its fundamental rationale. Indeed it may be that the key political event for Bush this summer was the handover of authority in Iraq on June 28. Before that date his approval ratings for handling Iraq, and terrorism more broadly, were at or near their lows. His approval rating today on Iraq, while just 47 percent, is six points above its low in late May. And his approval rating for handling terrorism, 60 percent, is nine points better than its low among registered voters on June 20. Fifty-four percent believe the United States is winning the war on terrorism an interesting counterpoint to Bush s comment that it can t be won (31 percent say the United States is losing). But perhaps most critically for this president, 60 percent believe the country is safer from terrorism now than it was before Sept. 11, The public divides on whether Bush should get credit for the fact that there hasn t been another attack on U.S. soil since then 51 percent say yes, 48 percent no. But even if not cognitively, it still accrues to his benefit: Among people who say the country is safer, Bush has a nearly 40-point lead over Kerry, 67 percent to 28 percent. Vote Preference

5 Bush Kerry Think country is safer 67% 28 Think country is less safe 14% 80 ISSUE VOTERS Bush has improved his position in the past month among the one in five registered voters who pick Iraq as the single most important issue in their choice; while he now trails Kerry by percent in this group, it d been percent after the Democratic convention. Kerry has retained a sizable lead among those who say the economy is their top issue (even though Bush has improved vs. Kerry on this issue more broadly, across all registered voters). But among those who say the top issue in their vote is terrorism, Bush leads Kerry by a huge percent. The nation s response to terrorism has been the wellspring of Bush s support, and as such it s the issue he can be expected to stress above all others this week. 60% Attributes: "Applies More to Bush" ABC News/Washington Post polls 55% 53% 55% 54% 54% 53% 50% 45% 40% 50% 50% 49% 48% 46% 46% 44% 42% 41% 40% 47% 42% Make country safer Strong leader Shares values Honest & trustworthy Understands problems 37% 37% 35% 30% Pre-Dem Post-Dem Pre-GOP Convention Convention Convention 20-Jun 25-Jul 1-Aug Now ATTRIBUTES and FAVORABILITY As important as issues are attributes voter perceptions of the candidates personal qualities and on these Bush has rebounded as well. His best is strong leadership, a percent Bush advantage over Kerry; it was percent after the Democratic convention. Bush also has a 13-point advantage as the candidate who ll make the country safer and more secure, up from just +3 on Aug. 1. And he s turned a six-point deficit as more honest and trustworthy into a six-point advantage.

6 Kerry led by 13 points after his convention as having a vision for the future ; now it s Kerry +3. And Kerry s edge on understanding the problems of people like you has eased from 14 points then to six points now. Now 8/1 Bush Best describes: Bush Kerry Bush Kerry change Honest 47% Has a vision Understands Will make the country safer Strong leader Shares your values Personal favorability, the most basic measure of a public figure s popularity, is another problem for Kerry. Last March, as he emerged victorious from the Democratic primaries, 54 percent of registered voters had a favorable opinion of him, 28 percent unfavorable. On Aug. 1, after his convention, it was percent. Today it s % Favorable Views of the Candidates ABC News/Washington Post polls 55% 54% 50% 51% 50% 45% 48% 47% 43% Kerry Bush 40% Pre-Dem Post-Dem Pre-GOP Convention Convention Convention 35% 30% 25-Jul 1-Aug Now Bush s favorability rating, at percent, is better than Kerry s in this survey, and Dick Cheney s, at 41-45, isn t that much worse. For inspiration all three might look to Laura Bush; 66 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of her. (She even terminates California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has a percent favorability rating, with many withholding judgment.)

7 Favorable-Unfavorable Now 8/1 George W. Bush John Kerry Dick Cheney Laura Bush Arnold Schwarzenegger na THOSE ADS This poll suggests collateral damage rather than a direct hit from the swift boat ads questioning Kerry s military service. They may have moved Kerry off his message, and sown some doubts among a minority of registered voters: Four in 10 either don t think Kerry legitimately earned his medals (23 percent) or are unsure (17 percent). That includes 36 percent of independents and 18 percent of Democrats, soaring to 64 percent of Republicans. Still, however, six in 10 believe Kerry did earn his decorations, and 67 percent disapprove of the ads. Fewer, though, 42 percent, accept his contention that the Bush campaign was behind them. Overall, Kerry s service is still a net positive: More people say they re more likely to support him for president because of his military service in the Navy, 24 percent, than less likely, 14 percent (most, 61 percent, say it won t affect their vote). That s better than it is for Bush: Just seven percent are more likely to support him because of his military service in the Texas National Guard, 22 percent less likely. There may be more potential downside for Kerry in a separate issue, his prominent opposition to the Vietnam War after leaving the military. Twenty-one percent say they re more likely to vote for him because of this activity, but 26 percent are less likely to support him. Specifically among veterans, moreover, it s 20 percent more likely, but 38 percent less so. GROUPS As noted, most of the shifts on issues and attributes in this survey have come among women, older voters and those in states where the campaigns are doing most of their advertising and appearances. It s also apparent among younger voters, though that sample is too small for firm conclusions. In the past month, for example, Kerry s favorability rating down eight points overall lost 14 points in the so-called battleground states compared with five in the rest of the country; and lost 11 points among women compared with six points among men. In trust to handle the economy, preference for Bush gained seven points overall, but 13 points among seniors and 19 points in the contested states. PARTY Finally there s the fundamental issue of party preference. It shifted to the Democrats after their convention: Thirty-nine percent of registered voters in the Aug. 1

8 ABC/Post poll identified themselves as Democrats, 29 percent as Republicans and 26 percent as independents (among likely voters it was ). That s more Democratic, and less Republican, than usual; and indeed in this poll it has settled back to percent among registereds, and percent among likely voters, who account for 56 percent of the general population in this survey. Moving party loyalty is one of the aims of political conventions, and now it s Bush s turn to try. The question, as with Kerry, is not only whether he can create movement, but if so, how long he can keep it. METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Aug , 2004, among a random national sample of 1,207 adults, including 945 registered voters. The results have a three-point error margin for registered voters, 3.5 points for likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) , or Lisa Finkel, (212) Full results follow (*= less than 0.5 percent). 1. How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 8/29/04 RV * 8/1/04 RV * 7/25/ * 7/11/04* /20/ * 5/23/ * 4/18/ /7/ * 2/11/ * 1/18/ * 10/29/ /13/ * *Washington Post 2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don't think Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) op. 8/29/04 RV * 0 8/1/04 RV * 7/25/04 RV * * 10/29/

9 3. (and 3a) If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats), or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents? Which candidates are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 8/29/ * /1/ * /25/ * 1 * 1 Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 8/29/ * 1 * 2 8/1/ * /25/ * 1 * 1 7/11/04* /20/ * 1 * 1 5/23/ * /18/ * 2 1 * 3/7/ * *Washington Post Net Leaned Vote, General Population: Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 7/11/04* /20/ * /23/ * /18/ * 2 1 * 3/7/ * *Washington Post only 4. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No vote NET Good Unlikely opin. Registered voters: 8/29/04 All Bush Kerry /1/04 All Bush Kerry /25/04 All Bush Kerry /11/04*All Bush * Kerry /20/04 All * Bush * Kerry General Population: 6/20/04 All Bush *

10 Kerry *Washington Post 5. (and 5a) (ASKED OF NADER VOTERS AND DON'T KNOWS) If Nader does not run or is not on the ballot, for whom would you vote - (Bush) or (Kerry)? Which one are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Write in Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 8/29/ * * 1 * 1 8/1/ * /25/ * 1 * 1 Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Write in Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 8/29/ * * 1 * 1 8/1/ * /25/ * /20/ * 1 1 * 5/23/ * * /18/ * * 2 1 * Net Leaned Vote, General Population: Write in Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 6/20/ * 1 1 * 5/23/ * * /18/ * * 2 1 * 6. (and 7) (ASKED OF UNLEANED BUSH/KERRY SUPPORTERS) Do you support Bush/Kerry strongly or not strongly? Bush Kerry Strongly Not strongly No op. Strongly Not strongly No op. 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV * /25/04 RV /18/04 RV /18/ /7/ * /11/ Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin. 8/29/ /1/ /25/ /11/04* /20/ /23/ /18/ /7/ /11/ /18/

11 12/21/ /14/ /7/ /16/ /29/ /13/ /30/ /13/ /7/ /11/ /10/ /22/ /30/ /16/ /9/ /3/ /23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4 3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 3/2/ /23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6 2/9/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/02 All /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /17/ /9/ /19/ /21/ /28/ /10/ /27/ /19/ /27/ /6/ /9/ /27/ /13/ /9/ /12/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22 *Washington Post 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (ITEM)? 8/29/04 - Summary Table - Registered Voters Approve Disapprove No op. a. The economy b. The situation in Iraq c. Education d. The US campaign against terrorism

12 e. Health care f. Taxes Trend: a. The economy Approve Disapprove No opinion 8/29/04 RV /25/ /20/ /23/ /18/ /7/ /11/ /18/ /21/ /16/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /7/ /11/ /10/ /30/ /9/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /5/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/ /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /21/ /27/ /19/ /6/ /9/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/ b. The situation in Iraq Approve Disapprove No opinion 8/29/04 RV /25/ /20/ /23/ /18/ /7/ /11/ /18/ /21/ /14/ /16/ /29/ /13/

13 9/29/ /13/ /7/ /24/ /11/ /10/ /22/ /30/ Compare to: The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein 3/27/ /23/ /20/ /17/ /9/ /23/ /9/ /5/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/ /26/ /14/ /29/ c. Education Approve Disapprove No opinion 8/29/04 RV /25/ /20/ /18/ /7/ /11/ /18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /30/ /15/ /26/ /15/ /27/ /9/ /30/ /3/ /22/ d. The US campaign against terrorism Approve Disapprove No opinion 8/29/04 RV /25/ /20/ /23/ /18/ /7/ /11/ /18/ /21/ /29/

14 10/13/ /13/ /7/ /30/ /9/ /1/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/02 All /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /19/02* /21/02* /10/02* /27/ /19/01* /15/01* *Asked very/somewhat follow-up e. Health care Approve Disapprove No opinion 8/29/04 RV /25/ /20/ Compare to: The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance 4/18/ /7/ /11/ /18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /30/ /28/ /20/ /15/ f. Taxes Approve Disapprove No opinion 8/29/04 RV /25/ /20/ /18/ /7/ /18/ /29/ /13/ /11/ /30/ /1/ /20/ /15/ Regardless of how you might vote, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (NAME) or perhaps you don't know enough to say.

15 8/29/04 - Summary Table - Registered voters Favorable Unfavorable No opinion a. John Kerry b. George W. Bush c. Dick Cheney d. Laura Bush e. Arnold Schwarzenegger Trend: a. John Kerry Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /7/ b. George W. Bush Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /7/ /6/00 RV /11/ /2/ /27/ /31/ /2/ /6/ /14/ /14/ /19/ c. Dick Cheney Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 8/29/04 RV /25/04 RV /7/04 RV /7/04 All /6/00 RV /29/ d. Laura Bush Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 8/29/04 RV /25/04 RV e. No trend. 11. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year: (The U.S. campaign against terrorism), (the war in Iraq), (the economy and jobs), (education), (health care), or something else? Economy/ Educ- Health No Terrorism Iraq jobs ation care Other op. 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV

16 13. Who do you trust to do a better job handling (ITEM), (Bush) or (Kerry)? 8/29/04 - Summary Table - Registered voters Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. a. The economy b. The situation in Iraq * 2 2 c. Education d. The US campaign against terrorism e. Health care * 3 4 f. Taxes * 2 4 g. Stem cell research * 5 12 h. Same-sex marriage * 6 7 i. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly * 4 6 j. Helping the middle class * 3 3 Trend: a. The economy Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV * 3 4 7/25/04 RV /11/04*RV /11/ /20/04 RV /20/ /23/ * 5 3 4/18/ /7/ * 4 2 2/11/ *Washington Post b. The situation in Iraq Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 8/29/04 RV * 2 2 8/1/04 RV * 2 4 7/25/04 RV /11/04*RV /11/ /20/04 RV * 3 1 6/20/ * 4 1 5/23/ * 6 3 4/18/ * 4 2 3/7/ /11/ *Washington Post c. Education Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /11/04*RV /11/ /20/04 RV /20/

17 4/18/ /7/ /11/ *Washington Post d. The U.S. campaign against terrorism Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV * 1 5 7/25/04 RV /11/04*RV /11/ /20/04 RV * 3 2 6/20/ /23/ /18/ /7/ /11/ *Washington Post e. Health care Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 8/29/04 RV * 3 4 8/1/04 RV * 3 5 7/25/04 RV /20/04 RV * 3 2 6/20/ * 4 2 Compare to: The cost, availability, and coverage of health insurance 4/18/ /7/ /11/ f. Taxes Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 8/29/04 RV * 2 4 8/1/04 RV /25/04 RV /20/04 RV /20/ /18/ * 6 2 3/7/ g. No trend. h. Same-sex marriage Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 8/29/04 RV * 6 7 4/18/ /7/ i. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin. 8/29/04 RV * 4 6 6/20/ /18/

18 3/7/ j. No trend. 14. Please tell me whether the following statement applies more to (Bush) or more to (Kerry). 8/29/04 - Summary Table - Registered voters Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. a. He is honest and trustworthy b. He understands the problems of people like you c. He is a strong leader d. He will make the country safer and more secure e. He shares your values f. He's got a vision for the future g. He s willing to listen to different points of view Trend: a. He is honest and trustworthy Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /20/04 RV /20/ b. He understands the problems of people like you Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /20/04 RV /20/ c. He is a strong leader Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /20/04 RV /20/ d. He will make the country safer and more secure Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /20/04 RV

19 6/20/ e. He shares your values Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /20/04 RV /20/ f. He's got a vision for the future Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op. 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV g. No trend. 15. (ASKED OF LEANED BUSH/KERRY SUPPORTERS) Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about (Bush/Kerry) very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? 8/29/04 - Summary Table ----Enthusiastic Not Enthusiastic----- No NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op. a. Bush * b. Kerry * Trend: ----Enthusiastic Not Enthusiastic----- No NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op. Bush 8/29/04 RV * 8/1/04 RV * 7/25/04 RV * 6/20/04 RV * 6/20/04 All * ----Enthusiastic Not Enthusiastic----- No NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op. Kerry 8/29/04 RV * 8/1/04 RV /25/04 RV /20/04 RV /20/04 All In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Satisfied Dissatisfied No opinion 8/29/04 RV /25/ /9/ /23/03* /5/03* /9/ /30/ /4/00 LV /3/00 LV

20 11/2/00 LV *Gallup. 18. Who do you think is better qualified to be commander in chief of the U.S. military, (Kerry) or (Bush)? Bush Kerry Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) No op. 8/29/04 RV * 2 1 8/1/04 RV Does (ITEM) make you more likely to support him for president, less likely, or doesn t it affect your vote one way or the other? 8/29/04 - Summary Table Registered Voters More Less Doesn t No likely likely affect opin. a. Kerry s military service in the Navy during the Vietnam War b. Bush s military service in the Texas National Guard during the Vietnam War c. Kerry s opposition to the Vietnam War after leaving the military Kerry was awarded the Silver Star, the Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts for his military service in Vietnam. Given what you know, do you think Kerry did or did not legitimately earn these military decorations? Did Did not No opinion 8/29/04 RV As you may know, a veterans group that opposes Kerry has been running political advertisements challenging Kerry s military record. From what you ve heard or read about it, do you approve or disapprove of those ads? Approve Disapprove No opinion 8/29/04 RV Do you think (the Bush campaign is behind these ads), or do you think (the group that placed these ads is operating independently)? Bush campaign Group that placed ads No is behind ads is operating independently opinion 8/29/04 RV All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? ----Worth fighting Not worth fighting--- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly op. 8/29/04 RV /25/ /20/ /23/ /6/04 49 NA NA 47 NA NA 5 4/18/ /7/ /11/ /18/

21 12/21/ /14/ /16/ /29/ /13/ /13/ /7/ /24/ /11/ /10/ /22/ /30/03 70 " " 27 " " 4 Gulf War: 2/2/92* 66 NA NA 32 NA NA 2 7/28/ /2/ /4/91 86 " " 13 " " 1 *2/2/92 and previous: "the Persian Gulf war"; 3/4/91: "this war 24. Do you think the war with Iraq has or has not contributed to the longterm security of the United States? IF YES: Has it contributed to the longterm security of the United States a great deal, or somewhat? Contributed Has No NET Great deal Somewhat not opin. 8/29/04 RV /25/ /20/ /23/ /18/ /7/ /11/ /18/ /21/ /10/03* *"did or did not" 25. In making its case for war with Iraq, do you think the Bush administration (told the American public what it believed to be true), or (intentionally misled the American public)? Told the American public Intentionally misled No what it believed to be true the American public opin. 8/29/04 RV /25/ On another subject, would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? ----Excellent/Good Not so good/poor----- No NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op. 8/29/04 RV * 7/25/ * 6/20/ * 4/18/ * 3/7/ /18/ /21/ /29/ * 9/13/ * 8/11/ * 4/30/ * 2/9/ *

22 1/20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV * 9/26/ * 7/15/ /21/ * 1/27/ * 9/20/ /9/ * 7/30/ * 4/22/ * 1/15/ /27/00 LV * 10/26/00 LV * 6/11/ * 2/27/ * 10/31/ /2/ /14/ /1/ /1/98 LV * 10/13/ * 27. Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially? Better Not as The No off well off same opinion 8/29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/ /20/ /18/ /7/ /11/ /18/ /21/ /29/ /13/ /30/ George H. W. Bush 8/9/ /21/ /4/ /16/ Do you think the United States is winning or losing the war on terrorism? Neither/It's No Winning Losing a draw (vol.) opinion 8/29/04 RV /25/ /18/ /7/ /6/ In light of the situation in the world today, do you think there s a particularly high risk in changing presidents at this time, or no more risk than usual?

23 High No more risk No risk No risk than usual (vol.) opinion 8/29/04 RV Compared to before September 11, 2001, do you think the country today is safer from terrorism or less safe from terrorism? IF SAFER: Would you say the country is much safer or somewhat safer? Safer Less No diff. No NET Much Somewhat safe (vol.) opin. 8/29/04 RV /18/ /7/ How much credit do you think Bush should get for the fact that there has not been another terrorist attack in the United States since September 11 th, a great deal of credit, a good amount, just some or hardly any? Great deal/ -----Some/Hardly any/none Good amount--- None No NET Great Good NET Some Hardly any (vol.) op. 8/29/04 RV Has Bush turned out to be a better president than you expected, a worse president, or what you expected? About what No Better Worse you expected opinion 8/29/04 RV George H. W. Bush 8/9/ Overall do you think Bush has done more to (unite the country), or has done more to (divide the country)? Unite Divide No opin. 8/29/04 RV /18/ /7/ /21/ Held for release. ***END***